JGMcD2 Posted January 15 Posted January 15 (edited) PFR has recently updated their AV (Approximate Value) metric now that the 2024 regular season has concluded. Below are links to the previous four updates, which detail the methodology and provide snapshots of team standings at various points throughout time. These earlier posts serve as a valuable reminder that evaluating draft classes can be a challenging task, as the true impact of these players often takes years to fully materialize. With three seasons of data from the 2022 draft class now available, we can more confidently draw conclusions about the draft classes from 2018 to 2022 and the trends they reveal. 2021 League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive 2022 *UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive 2023 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III 2024 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part IV Edited January 15 by JGMcD2 1 4 5 Quote
Pete Posted January 15 Posted January 15 Bills #1 last year, #2 in 22, and #9 Quantification proving Beane is a Wizard 2 Quote
JGMcD2 Posted January 15 Author Posted January 15 Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said: 2023 isn’t great. 2023 is currently sitting 12th overall. It'll tick up a bit because of Kincaid, Torrence and Williams. Otherwise, it was a small class and somewhat underwhelming class. 1 Quote
Buffalo_Stampede Posted January 15 Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: 2023 is currently sitting 12th overall. It'll tick up a bit because of Kincaid, Torrence and Williams. Otherwise, it was a small class and somewhat underwhelming class. It does have a chance to improve though. 1 Quote
scuba guy Posted January 15 Posted January 15 Blah blah blah This sounds like that star trek episode where all the kids side blah blah all the time. When are people going to learn s a gets paid to be a total ×ss. Esay way to avoid all this don't listen. 1 1 Quote
Big Turk Posted January 15 Posted January 15 39 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said: 2023 is currently sitting 12th overall. It'll tick up a bit because of Kincaid, Torrence and Williams. Otherwise, it was a small class and somewhat underwhelming class. It's harder for the Bills now because fewer rookies are able to meaningfully contribute compared to bad teams. Quote
Draconator Posted January 16 Posted January 16 24 minutes ago, scuba guy said: Blah blah blah This sounds like that star trek episode where all the kids side blah blah all the time. When are people going to learn s a gets paid to be a total ×ss. Esay way to avoid all this don't listen. But tell us how you REALLY feel Quote
GunnerBill Posted January 16 Posted January 16 The 2022 class is our best since 2018 (Josh and Taron) despite missing on our 1st rounder. That class has been critical in moving towards the Allen Bills 2.0 3 Quote
Niagara Dude Posted January 16 Posted January 16 12 hours ago, JGMcD2 said: PFR has recently updated their AV (Approximate Value) metric now that the 2024 regular season has concluded. Below are links to the previous four updates, which detail the methodology and provide snapshots of team standings at various points throughout time. These earlier posts serve as a valuable reminder that evaluating draft classes can be a challenging task, as the true impact of these players often takes years to fully materialize. With three seasons of data from the 2022 draft class now available, we can more confidently draw conclusions about the draft classes from 2018 to 2022 and the trends they reveal. 2021 League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive 2022 *UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive 2023 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III 2024 Draft Success Measured by AV - Part IV Looks good Quote
The BLUES Brothers Posted January 16 Posted January 16 No kidding -I get super excited for the draft every year - but do not reflect as specifically as you have here. Thank you OP for this! Great to see the due diligence of the staff is trusting their own process, and hope they (and you with these great review posts) keep up the really great work. 1 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted January 16 Posted January 16 13 hours ago, Big Turk said: It's harder for the Bills now because fewer rookies are able to meaningfully contribute compared to bad teams. Yup. Not to mention that we're drafting in the mid to late twenties consistently. 1 Quote
JP51 Posted January 16 Posted January 16 14 hours ago, GunnerBill said: The 2022 class is our best since 2018 (Josh and Taron) despite missing on our 1st rounder. That class has been critical in moving towards the Allen Bills 2.0 totally agree here... unless Kincaid becomes the next coming of Gronk or Kelsey other than that... love that class. Quote
GunnerBill Posted January 16 Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, JP51 said: totally agree here... unless Kincaid becomes the next coming of Gronk or Kelsey other than that... love that class. Kincaid was 2023. 2022 was Elam. Quote
Motorin' Posted January 16 Posted January 16 14 hours ago, GunnerBill said: The 2022 class is our best since 2018 (Josh and Taron) despite missing on our 1st rounder. That class has been critical in moving towards the Allen Bills 2.0 This next draft is going to be the one to cement Bills 2.0. I truly believe they can land 3-4 difference makers on defense. Quote
JP51 Posted January 16 Posted January 16 20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: Kincaid was 2023. 2022 was Elam. ooops thanks for that.. well... if Kincaid becomes Gronk and Dorian Williams figures it out then I may like 2023 over 2022... Thinking about also getting O'cyrus... anyways lots needs to happen as Cook and Benford to me are legit all pro's ... Quote
Charles Romes Posted January 16 Posted January 16 I find it hard to believe they don’t “change the formula” many times until the results look reasonable. Quote
since79 Posted January 16 Posted January 16 Ranked 1 cumulatively and yet we only have one second team All-Pro. Subjectivity infects all grading and voting. You cannot believe any of it. Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted January 16 Posted January 16 18 hours ago, JGMcD2 said: 2023 is currently sitting 12th overall. It'll tick up a bit because of Kincaid, Torrence and Williams. Otherwise, it was a small class and somewhat underwhelming class. Only 3 other players than what you listed - 2 were late 7th rounders, and a 5th round WR who was injured in 2024 and then ultimately got beat out by a UDFA from the same class in 2024. Quote
BarleyNY Posted Thursday at 06:06 PM Posted Thursday at 06:06 PM (edited) 30 minutes ago, since79 said: Ranked 1 cumulatively and yet we only have one second team All-Pro. Subjectivity infects all grading and voting. You cannot believe any of it. The Bills numbers are very good overall, but they are definitely helped immensely by starting the cumulative calculations in 2018 when Allen was drafted. Likewise Baltimore is helped in the same way with Lamar drafted 32 that season. Edited to add: I understand that this is a measurement of Beane’s tenure and that’s why it started in 2017. Not sure why 2024 wasn’t included though. My point is simply that nailing a QB in 2017 - as he did and should get credit for - pumps up the numbers dramatically. Edited Thursday at 06:16 PM by BarleyNY Quote
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