Comparing this game to Bengals playoff game

[Pete]

1 minute ago, Ga boy said:

Oh my Pete, the OP says this team is better with possibility of better results even with a porous D.  Btw, I am enjoying this awesome team 🦬

What a fantastic ride this Bills team is!  1960 was a long time ago.  Life is about the journey.  We are so close, I am thoroughly enjoying every game, and I truly appreciate this Bills team. It will be magnificent, incredible, amazing, exhilarating and tremendous when Buffalo wins the Super Bowl!

[BillsFan130]

24 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Statistically they're not better which means objectively they're aren't better. If you want to say your feelings are X that is fine, perhaps they're subjectively better, but what you feel means nothing to what is real and isn't real. 

September/october 2022 the bills were much better.

 

November onwards, it's really not even close that the 2024 bills are much better.

 

I would guarantee the stats would objectively say the bills were a way better team from November to the divisional round , compared to the 2022 bills. And most importantly, anyone who watched the last 8 games or so of the 2022 bills would agree. It's pretty black and white

Edited 4 hours ago by BillsFan130

[skibum]

On the surface, sure it looks very similar. But the 2022 team had Tremaine Edmunds on it. 

[oldmanfan]

6 hours ago, Ga boy said:

Ok, in the cancelled regular season game, we were being rag dolled by Cincy.  They looked like the better team, and proved it in the playoff game.  Just one TD for the good guys and running game was nothing.  Fast forward, Ravens stomped us this year.  There may be some similarities, but I think Cincy had a better D than purple burds, and our team this year is better than the 2022 version.  Thoughts anyone?

The Bills didn’t have a teammate almost die on the field in front of them this year.

[colin]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

It's not even a conversation, statistically it's no comparison. 

 

 

We are one incredible Ty Johnson TD pass on 4th down from Denver having the ball down 3 in the 3rd quarter. The entire game swung on that single play. We had the Patriots come into Buffalo and largely dominant the game as other cellar dwellers have against us only for turnovers to eventually swing it in our favor. This team is very flawed, as was the one in 2022. It lacks top end talent, made up for with a HOF QB and a weak division. Paper tiger both seasons. 

The 4th DVOA rank is the lowest we have had in the 2020's

 

I'm a fellow skeptic and McD h8r, but the difference I see this year is our Oline/running game and our D is willing to play man to man, 4-3, and be aggressive even after letting up a deep TD pass like we did vs Denver.  I think baltimore can be beaten by forcing them to pass more than they usually do, and to control the ball some on O.  they have a great run D, but I really think a well schemed run game featuring cook and josh will be effective.  obviously there will have to be magic allen plays and efficient passing, but big on big and moving piles will take the bully right out of them.

 

on D it's a much worse story, but we will have to discard nickel when needed (which might be a lot) and basically not allow big henry runs.  baltimore is a power team but a sloppy one, they get holding and false start and illegal formation penalties, and if the bills D stays on them on 3rd and long they will get stymied.  with the exception of the first play of the game, our rag tag back up D (cam lewis and raw rookie bishop were left out there along w specter and that other LB who's name i didn't even bother to learn) kind of did enough.  bad 3rd down conversions (two of them) on the first drive lead to the 14 points scored early, but they gave away a fumble and had to punt a few times as well.  if the O shows up like it has in all but 2 or 3 games (and none at home, really) then we can have some pressure on the baltimore O and make lamar drop back and pass without trickery. 

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

It's not even a conversation, statistically it's no comparison. 

 

 

We are one incredible Ty Johnson TD pass on 4th down from Denver having the ball down 3 in the 3rd quarter. The entire game swung on that single play. We had the Patriots come into Buffalo and largely dominant the game as other cellar dwellers have against us only for turnovers to eventually swing it in our favor. This team is very flawed, as was the one in 2022. It lacks top end talent, made up for with a HOF QB and a weak division. Paper tiger both seasons. 

The 4th DVOA rank is the lowest we have had in the 2020's

 

I'm a fellow skeptic and McD h8r, but the difference I see this year is our Oline/running game and our D is willing to play man to man, 4-3, and be aggressive even after letting up a deep TD pass like we did vs Denver.  I think baltimore can be beaten by forcing them to pass more than they usually do, and to control the ball some on O.  they have a great run D, but I really think a well schemed run game featuring cook and josh will be effective.  obviously there will have to be magic allen plays and efficient passing, but big on big and moving piles will take the bully right out of them.

 

on D it's a much worse story, but we will have to discard nickel when needed (which might be a lot) and basically not allow big henry runs.  baltimore is a power team but a sloppy one, they get holding and false start and illegal formation penalties, and if the bills D stays on them on 3rd and long they will get stymied.  with the exception of the first play of the game, our rag tag back up D (cam lewis and raw rookie bishop were left out there along w specter and that other LB who's name i didn't even bother to learn) kind of did enough.  bad 3rd down conversions (two of them) on the first drive lead to the 14 points scored early, but they gave away a fumble and had to punt a few times as well.  if the O shows up like it has in all but 2 or 3 games (and none at home, really) then we can have some pressure on the baltimore O and make lamar drop back and pass without trickery. 

[Buffalo03]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

The first half of the year, 100 percent agreed.

 

But it was obvious towards the end of the year that they were going nowhere.

 

Wasnt it Jerry Sullivan who said the awkward offence statement to Josh towards the end of the year when he told him- "this doesn't look like a Super Bowl offence".

 

He is a jerk, but he was right.

 

That 2022 team was cursed, and anyone who feels the same coming out of that Skylar Thompson playoff win, to the team we have now, I would respectfully question their memory/judgement

Everyone talks about that game against the Dolphins barely beating Skyler Thompson, but no one wants to consider the fact that it was 2 weeks after the Hamlin thing and I still think they were not in the right frame of mind. That season was over when Hamlin went down against Cincinnati 

[BigDingus]

Another similarity - the weather looks like it could turn bad once again.

 

Last time it hurt us & the Bengals looked fine. Hope things turn out differently this time, but I'd be a lot more confident if they had anyone other than Henry back there...

[Buffalo03]

2 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

Sullivan could be a butthead and abrasive, but he always told the truth. 

 

His article post Super bowl 25 was spot on and I still have it in my sports collection. 

 

The 22 bills is called terrible luck. It happens and I'm proud of the way they fought still. 

What was his article post about Super Bowl 25? The fact that the Giants had this incredible game plan that stopped the Bills? The Bills could have easily won that game had they adjusted to what the Giants were doing. But they were way to stubborn to do so because like what Frank Reich said "they were gonna live and die with what got them there". Belichick said in his own words that he invited the Bills to run the whole game and the Bills wouldn't take it and he was actually happy we didn't because he knew they would be in trouble. Ironically, Thurman only had 15 carries in that game for 135 yards and a TD. If he has 25 to 30 carries, he probably goes over 200 and we win easily. So, it wasn't this amazing game plan that Belichick had. It was the Bills being to ignorant to change theirs. So, if his article was something praising the Giants game plan in that game, then no, I wouldn't consider it anything special and doesn't make him right at all

[BigDingus]

4 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Everyone talks about that game against the Dolphins barely beating Skyler Thompson, but no one wants to consider the fact that it was 2 weeks after the Hamlin thing and I still think they were not in the right frame of mind. That season was over when Hamlin went down against Cincinnati 

 

I'm not sure I believe this affected their play THAT much. Even before the Cincy game we were losing steam & Allen was playing just OK. He had one really good game against the Dolphins near the end of the year, one pretty bad game against the Bears, and the rest was ok.

 

It felt like the Green Bay game was a turning point. Started off hot, then we started playing poorly, throwing a lot of INTs, and then we carried that forward to losing our next 2 games. Every game after that felt sloppy, even though we won out. Nearly every game was close, and it seemed like the team was struggling way more than normal.

 

Surely, Damar's injury affected them. But by the time the Cincy game came around, Damar was ok & going to games & supporting the boys again.

 

 

 

[Buffalo03]

4 minutes ago, BigDingus said:

 

I'm not sure I believe this affected their play THAT much. Even before the Cincy game we were losing steam & Allen was playing just OK. He had one really good game against the Dolphins near the end of the year, one pretty bad game against the Bears, and the rest was ok.

 

It felt like the Green Bay game was a turning point. Started off hot, then we started playing poorly, throwing a lot of INTs, and then we carried that forward to losing our next 2 games. Every game after that felt sloppy, even though we won out. Nearly every game was close, and it seemed like the team was struggling way more than normal.

 

Surely, Damar's injury affected them. But by the time the Cincy game came around, Damar was ok & going to games & supporting the boys again.

 

 

 

Correct, they were losing steam but the Damar thing is what ended it all. The engine was running on fumes and the engine died when Damar went down. You think 2 weeks after a teammate dies on the field that they are still in the right state of mind? I think that was the number 1 factor 

Edited 4 hours ago by Buffalo03

[BillsFan130]

29 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

Everyone talks about that game against the Dolphins barely beating Skyler Thompson, but no one wants to consider the fact that it was 2 weeks after the Hamlin thing and I still think they were not in the right frame of mind. That season was over when Hamlin went down against Cincinnati 

Maybe- I saw the flaws before that though as well.

 

They were on the verge of getting absolutely destroyed in Cincinnati, before the game was cancelled 

[cgang]

The only similarity is that the bills lost to the bengals and ravens in the regular season.  That’s where the comparison ends.  
 

I think the Bills and Ravens are different than they were in week 4 from both roster and execution perspectives.  I said this in another thread but I really think turnovers is going to be the key to the game.  It’s going to be cold.  And we excel at forcing turnovers and INTs.  Lamar has been great at reducing them this year but I think that ends Sunday. 

[Buffalo03]

7 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

Maybe- I saw the flaws before that though as well.

 

They were on the verge of getting absolutely destroyed in Cincinnati, before the game was cancelled 

There were flaws. Like I said to someone else, the engine was on fumes before that. The engine died when Hamlin went down

[Mikie2times]

2 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

September/october 2022 the bills were much better.

 

November onwards, it's really not even close that the 2024 bills are much better.

 

I would guarantee the stats would objectively say the bills were a way better team from November to the divisional round , compared to the 2022 bills. And most importantly, anyone who watched the last 8 games or so of the 2022 bills would agree. It's pretty black and white

 

I'm going to stop trying to defend previous statements and just look at this again. 

 

Since week 8

 

Offense has an EPA of 19.9% in 2024 vs 7.3% in 2022

Defense has EPA of 3.4% in 2024 vs -.8% in 2022

 

OFF= 12.6

DEF= -4.2

OVR= 8.4

 

Plays not involving turnovers

 

Offense: 24.2% EPA in 2024 v 19.3% EPA in 2022 

Defense: 19.3 EPA in 2024 vs 8.6 EPA in 2022

 

OFF 4.9

DEF -10.7

OVR -5.8

Look at where we fall on this chart since week 8 on plays that don't involve turnovers.

 

 

 

I don't think the take that 2024 is better is unreasonable. The offense is signifgantly better especially in the run game. The defense, while worse, is not so bad it totally erases the gap in offenses. At the same time the defense has been very suspect in 2024. Remove turnovers and the gap in performance is almost as big as the offensive difference from 2024 to 2022. That isn't to say turnovers don't matter, they certainly matter, but how you play without them certainly matters as well.  I don't know if you can overcome that. The 2024 team is just not as complete, even when looking at the 2nd half of the season.

 

Many think injuries will show a big improvement in the postseason. I'm not going to debate that concept. I do think we can disrupt the Ravens. I like a team that is getting the level of disrespect our team is. At which point, I also like how we match up with KC. So regardless of the answer to this thing I think we have a path.  

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by Mikie2times

[BillsFan130]

35 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I'm going to scrap trying to defend previous statements and just look at this again. 

 

Since week 8

 

Offense has an EPA of 19.9% in 2024 vs 7.3% in 2022

Defense has EPA of 3.4% in 2024 vs -.8% in 2022

 

OFF= 12.6

DEF= -4.2

OVR= 8.4

 

Plays not involving turnovers

 

Offense: 24.2% EPA in 2024 v 19.3% EPA in 2022 

Defense: 19.3 EPA in 2024 vs 8.6 EPA in 2022

 

OFF 4.9

DEF -10.7

OVR -5.8

Look at where we fall on this chart since week 8 on plays that don't involve turnovers.

 

 

 

I don't think the take that 2024 is better is unreasonable. The offense is signifgantly better especially in the run game. The defense, while worse, is not so bad it totally erases the gap in offenses. At the same time the defense has been very suspect in 2024. Remove turnovers and the gap in performance is almost as big as the offensive difference from 2024 to 2022. That isn't to say turnovers don't matter, they certainly matter, but how you play without them certainly matters as well.  I don't know if you can overcome that. The 2024 team is just not as complete, even when looking at the 2nd half of the season.

 

Many think injuries will show a big improvement in the postseason. I'm not going to debate that concept. I do think we can disrupt the Ravens. I like a team that is getting the level of disrespect our team is. At which point, I also like how we match up with KC. So regardless of the answer to this thing I think we have a path.  

 

 

I will give credit where credit is due, really good post buddy and I appreciate you taking the time to dig into the stats.

 

Fron the 2022 team stats aside, something just felt off with that team- Kind of reminded me of the Minnesota Vikings in a way, where they really didn't pass the smell test, even though the record was good

 

This year feels different. And I am the furthest thing from a homer, if anything I am on the slighty pessimistic side.

 

Health for sure is important to your point- We will see what happens- Going to be a dog fight on Sunday

 

 

[colin]

43 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

I'm going to scrap trying to defend previous statements and just look at this again. 

 

Since week 8

 

Offense has an EPA of 19.9% in 2024 vs 7.3% in 2022

Defense has EPA of 3.4% in 2024 vs -.8% in 2022

 

OFF= 12.6

DEF= -4.2

OVR= 8.4

 

Plays not involving turnovers

 

Offense: 24.2% EPA in 2024 v 19.3% EPA in 2022 

Defense: 19.3 EPA in 2024 vs 8.6 EPA in 2022

 

OFF 4.9

DEF -10.7

OVR -5.8

Look at where we fall on this chart since week 8 on plays that don't involve turnovers.

 

 

 

I don't think the take that 2024 is better is unreasonable. The offense is signifgantly better especially in the run game. The defense, while worse, is not so bad it totally erases the gap in offenses. At the same time the defense has been very suspect in 2024. Remove turnovers and the gap in performance is almost as big as the offensive difference from 2024 to 2022. That isn't to say turnovers don't matter, they certainly matter, but how you play without them certainly matters as well.  I don't know if you can overcome that. The 2024 team is just not as complete, even when looking at the 2nd half of the season.

 

Many think injuries will show a big improvement in the postseason. I'm not going to debate that concept. I do think we can disrupt the Ravens. I like a team that is getting the level of disrespect our team is. At which point, I also like how we match up with KC. So regardless of the answer to this thing I think we have a path.  

 

 

 

you are 100% in that there are HUGE concerns with our D.

 

to me the difference in our team now vs 2022 (soft team, saffold had no business wearing an nfl jersey) vs 2023 are the following (i'm ignoring 2022):

 

the d : we are not a total mash unit of utter trash.  the guys who playing in the playoffs, especially vs kc were not NFL worthy.  Von was Non (injury), benford was out, douglas was honestly too hurt to play at all, safety was banged up, dq was not right, and our linebackers were not even roster worthy (dodson could pop some, and williams came in late vs kc and got our only stop of the day, but aj klien couldn't even run).  on d now, vs 2022 and 2023, we at least show different looks, different formations (the 3 2 almost sorta bear front we showed vs kc) and some different concepts.  it's still not great.

 

the special teams: bass is less snake bit than he was before, and the absence of calling that total abortion of a fake punt w hamlin (im going out on a limb saying it won't be called) means they will suck less

 

the offense:  the oline is such a gang of angry yetis this year vs the last two it is silly.  just giant mutants who can line up and fist fight with the nfl, playing good football and healthy (let's hope anderson gets three cows worth of needles in his calf to be bionic).  brown had surgery after last season, torrence was hitting a rookie wall, morse was basically shot.  skill talent: we had harty and that stiff from miami, and that old man back murray.  we had no play gabe (was he hurt too?) and washout malcontent diggs (just a late and post season zero point zero).  now we have hollins (who is actually clutch), both TEs are healthy, cook is en fuego, sadly davis is banged up, TY is a total monster in the passing game, and collins and cooper are (shockingly) an upgrade to the diggs and davis of that game (again, did davis play?).  the threat to actually line up and run a fast halfback into man or zone and push people around.  and perhaps most of all, the control of the game by josh, no turnovers.

 

so, baltimore is favored on the road and whipped us before, but i strangely have confidence in this team for next sunday at home.  I could very well be wrong, but i honestly see us winning this and looking the part on all phases of the game.

[Buffalo03]

20 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I will give credit where credit is due, really good post buddy and I appreciate you taking the time to dig into the stats.

 

Fron the 2022 team stats aside, something just felt off with that team- Kind of reminded me of the Minnesota Vikings in a way, where they really didn't pass the smell test, even though the record was good

 

This year feels different. And I am the furthest thing from a homer, if anything I am on the slighty pessimistic side.

 

Health for sure is important to your point- We will see what happens- Going to be a dog fight on Sunday

 

 

I honestly am starting to think that the issues with the 2022 and 2023 teams was Dorsey. Our offense ran like a well oiled machine in 2020 and 2021 under Daboll. In 2022 it started where Daboll left off but then became less creative and it seemed like even though we were winning games, everything looked so much harder. The offense that ran so well the 2 years prior had to scrape and scrape to get points on the board it looked like. The first 10 games of 2023 was the same thing. It started off good but then the same struggles started again and we finally cut ties with Dorsey after going 5-5. You started seeing the differences with Brady calling plays but it wasn't fully gelling yet. Now in 2024, without Diggs and Allen spreading the ball around. It seems like the Bills are scoring much easier again like they did in 2020 and 2021 but even better. The defense isn't quite as good but our offense putting up 30 or more a game helps and I do agree it feels a lot different. 

[oldmanfan]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

It's not even a conversation, statistically it's no comparison. 

 

 

We are one incredible Ty Johnson TD pass on 4th down from Denver having the ball down 3 in the 3rd quarter. The entire game swung on that single play. We had the Patriots come into Buffalo and largely dominant the game as other cellar dwellers have against us only for turnovers to eventually swing it in our favor. This team is very flawed, as was the one in 2022. It lacks top end talent, made up for with a HOF QB and a weak division. Paper tiger both seasons. 

The 4th DVOA rank is the lowest we have had in the 2020's

You seem determined to crap on the Bills.  Why?

 

You can’t compare 2022 to this year, because there are way too many variables.  First, all the off the field stuff highlighted by a teammate almost dying in front of them.  It seemed obvious the team was out of gas against the Bengals; you can’t place a specific on how all those incidents affected players mentally.  On the field you have new coordinators on either side of the ball.  Brady’s offense seems an improvement over 2022, Josh has matured, better running game, no need to feed any specific WR, and a really solid O line.  Defense no Frazier, better LB play with Bernard, worse safety play without Poyer and Hyde.

 

We will see a helluva football game Sunday night.  Each team has to figure out a way to slow down the other team’s run game.  Both teams have to deal with top notch QBs at the tops of their games.  I plan to enjoy it and I think the Bills will win; home advantage will help.  You apparently don’t.  

[LABILLBACKER]

Bad comparison...first that entire season was littered with chaos & tragedy. The team was mentally and physically exhausted. This season has been more of a transformation beyond veterans leaving the team.  We've managed to find a way to win without a slew of pro bowlers.  On week 4 we were missing Milano, Bernard,  Taron. We lost Rapp & Shakir early in the game.  These 5 players along with Cooper, Phillips & Jefferson should also contribute, as they were missing too. That's a substantial amount of additional reinforcements. I think if the gameplan is to stop 22 early, our chances of winning go up drastically. This won't be Cincy....

[Mikie2times]

11 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You seem determined to crap on the Bills.  Why?

 

You can’t compare 2022 to this year, because there are way too many variables.  First, all the off the field stuff highlighted by a teammate almost dying in front of them.  It seemed obvious the team was out of gas against the Bengals; you can’t place a specific on how all those incidents affected players mentally.  On the field you have new coordinators on either side of the ball.  Brady’s offense seems an improvement over 2022, Josh has matured, better running game, no need to feed any specific WR, and a really solid O line.  Defense no Frazier, better LB play with Bernard, worse safety play without Poyer and Hyde.

 

We will see a helluva football game Sunday night.  Each team has to figure out a way to slow down the other team’s run game.  Both teams have to deal with top notch QBs at the tops of their games.  I plan to enjoy it and I think the Bills will win; home advantage will help.  You apparently don’t.  

I prefer a balanced perspective. People tend to get carried a way a bit on here which sure, it's a site about the Bills so you would expect that, but just because I'm a fan doesn't mean it removes my sense of wanting to be accurate and logical. If you see me not act that way by all means call it out, that's why we are here right? 

Edited 2 hours ago by Mikie2times