Securing Joe Brady as our OC

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

He has been successful with the greatest offensive talent in college football history at LSU and a Bills team with one of its best offensive lines in history, a Pro Bowl RB and a Hall of Fame QB. He failed in Carolina with a low talent level. His route structures are very basic and Josh has created an absolutely insane amount of off schedule plays this year it’s hard to even know what it looks like without him. I prefer to retain him for continuity and I love how he has gotten Josh away from the three point offense Dorsey had. But I don’t see some mastermind, and in my opinion, if he leaves he will have a very similar fate as Daboll.   

 

I do think he failed in Carolina, his offense there was messy, and he never seemed to decide on an identity. He was trying to be prime New England Brady offense IMO, where they could run it 35 times one week and pass it 55 times the next depending on opponent and they just never established who they were or what they did well. 

 

But I disagree that his route structures are basic. I think his route combinations are top tier compared to OCs I see around the NFL. I think he is a really smart offensive mind, and I said pre-season I was very optimistic about him. On the off schedule plays, sure Josh has made them. He always does and always will. My perception is there has been way more available to him on script this year than any year since 2020. Some of that is offensive line, sure, a reason for the high percentage off script in 2021 and 2022 in particular was the poor pass protection but the first half of last year it was pure scheme failure and Brady has massively reduced that. They exist, sure. But I feel like Josh is pulling on the cape 3 or 4 times a game this year, whereas the last 3 years there have been times or parts of seasons where it has felt like the entire offense. 

 

Is he a "mastermind"? Maybe not. But beyond the obvious proven elite guys - Reid, Shanahan, McVay - I'm not sure who else in the NFL I'd swap him for as an offensive coordinator. Maybe Mike McDaniel. I do think he is a very smart OC too, but I think Brady's impact on this season should be recognised. He has been excellent. Of course having Josh Allen makes your job easier. But he shouldn't get dinged on his job with this offense because he has Superman at Quarterback. Honestly if Brady's work this year hasn't impressed people I'm not sure they will ever be impressed with any OC who works with Josh Allen.

 

As to whether he succeeds as a Head Coach, well that depends on where he lands and fit. I think personality wise he is better suited than Daboll. Right now I worry about whether he is sufficiently experienced. The knock on him in Carolina was he was a bit aloof and didn't involve his players. He has gone completely 180 on that here, but I suspect there is other learning he needs to do to step up to managing an entire team.

 

If I was his agent my honest recommendation would be: this market is bad even by the standard of normal NFL job markets, you have Josh Allen, you are gonna have a productive offense again next year and be in the conversation, and another year of seasoning probably isn't the worst idea in any event. 

[hondo in seattle]

For Brady to leave, two things must happen.

 

1.  A team with an opening thinks he's the right guy.

2.  Brady thinks the team that offers him a job, if any, is the right opportunity.

 

With lots of competition and only six openings, it seems unlikely both #1 and #2 will happen this year.  

[TheBrownBear]

14 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Daboll 2.0 which is fine, Daboll was competent. But again, people underestimating what Allen does for the OC. Look at the play to Ty Johnson. That’s the difference between us pulling away and being in a dog fight. 

I agree.  A HUGE improvement over the incompetent Dorsey, but I'm not seeing a ton of imaginative stuff out of Brady.  I think this year's offensive success rests almost entirely on the quantum leap in maturity that Josh has made at QB over the last year.

[hondo in seattle]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I do think he failed in Carolina, his offense there was messy, and he never seemed to decide on an identity. He was trying to be prime New England Brady offense IMO, where they could run it 35 times one week and pass it 55 times the next depending on opponent and they just never established who they were or what they did well. 

 

But I disagree that his route structures are basic. I think his route combinations are top tier compared to OCs I see around the NFL. I think he is a really smart offensive mind, and I said pre-season I was very optimistic about him. On the off schedule plays, sure Josh has made them. He always does and always will. My perception is there has been way more available to him on script this year than any year since 2020. Some of that is offensive line, sure, a reason for the high percentage off script in 2021 and 2022 in particular was the poor pass protection but the first half of last year it was pure scheme failure and Brady has massively reduced that. They exist, sure. But I feel like Josh is pulling on the cape 3 or 4 times a game this year, whereas the last 3 years there have been times or parts of seasons where it has felt like the entire offense. 

 

Is he a "mastermind"? Maybe not. But beyond the obvious proven elite guys - Reid, Shanahan, McVay - I'm not sure who else in the NFL I'd swap him for as an offensive coordinator. Maybe Mike McDaniel. I do think he is a very smart OC too, but I think Brady's impact on this season should be recognised. He has been excellent. Of course having Josh Allen makes your job easier. But he shouldn't get dinged on his job with this offense because he has Superman at Quarterback. Honestly if Brady's work this year hasn't impressed people I'm not sure they will ever be impressed with any OC who works with Josh Allen.

 

As to whether he succeeds as a Head Coach, well that depends on where he lands and fit. I think personality wise he is better suited than Daboll. Right now I worry about whether he is sufficiently experienced. The knock on him in Carolina was he was a bit aloof and didn't involve his players. He has gone completely 180 on that here, but I suspect there is other learning he needs to do to step up to managing an entire team.

 

If I was his agent my honest recommendation would be: this market is bad even by the standard of normal NFL job markets, you have Josh Allen, you are gonna have a productive offense again next year and be in the conversation, and another year of seasoning probably isn't the worst idea in any event. 

 

GB, let me ask a question because I don't watch a lot of replay but I watch some.  And what I see in the passing game is that our TEs and RBs get open a fair amount.  Maybe even our slot guy(s).  But not our wideouts.

 

This is backed up by advanced metrics that say our receivers are below the league average in separation.  

 

You could argue that our wideouts just aren't very good.  Or you could argue, like I do, that Brady doesn't excel at scheming wideouts open.  You could also argue that I'm just wrong in my observations & assumptions and that the stats that say our wideouts aren't getting separation are inaccurate.  

What's your take on this?

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

GB, let me ask a question because I don't watch a lot of replay but I watch some.  And what I see in the passing game is that our TEs and RBs get open a fair amount.  Maybe even our slot guy(s).  But not our wideouts.

 

This is backed up by advanced metrics that say our receivers are below the league average in separation.  

 

You could argue that our wideouts just aren't very good.  Or you could argue, like I do, that Brady doesn't excel at scheming wideouts open.  You could also argue that I'm just wrong in my observations & assumptions and that the stats that say our wideouts aren't getting separation are inaccurate.  

What's your take on this?

 

My take is as it has been since the spring: our wide receivers are non-separators. Coop can separate some, but has only played just over 20% of our total season snaps, Coleman is a non-separator, Samuel is not a big separation guy despite his speed and Hollins is not a great separator. Shakir is a space finder rather than a route runner which is why he struggled earlier in his career while he was developing that nuance over where to sit so he is never going to have big separation numbers, he will find those small windows where his QB can make a throw to him like the first play of the game Sunday. 

[Cash]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I increasingly do think it is going to happen. I don't see Jones hiring him (not a big enough name) and McCarthy is now a realistic possibility in Chicago and New Orleans which potentially closes off another spot. 

 

Jacksonville is the wildcard. I have no idea what they are going to do and, likely, nor do they. 

New Orleans worries me the most. I’m friends with a bunch of Saints fans, and most of them have been clamoring for Brady. Ownership cares a lot about selling tickets and knows that Brady’s Saints and LSU ties will make him a popular hire. 
 

My hope is that Brady pulls a Ben Johnson and waits it out. (Even if he wants the Saints job, there’s a good chance it’ll come available again in 2-3 years, and by then they’ll be in a better cap situation.)

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Cash said:

New Orleans worries me the most. I’m friends with a bunch of Saints fans, and most of them have been clamoring for Brady. Ownership cares a lot about selling tickets and knows that Brady’s Saints and LSU ties will make him a popular hire. 
 

My hope is that Brady pulls a Ben Johnson and waits it out. (Even if he wants the Saints job, there’s a good chance it’ll come available again in 2-3 years, and by then they’ll be in a better cap situation.)

 

There is an additional candidate there now with McCarthy. They will hire someone with Saints links though. That is Loomis's MO.

[hondo in seattle]

44 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

My take is as it has been since the spring: our wide receivers are non-separators. Coop can separate some, but has only played just over 20% of our total season snaps, Coleman is a non-separator, Samuel is not a big separation guy despite his speed and Hollins is not a great separator. Shakir is a space finder rather than a route runner which is why he struggled earlier in his career while he was developing that nuance over where to sit so he is never going to have big separation numbers, he will find those small windows where his QB can make a throw to him like the first play of the game Sunday. 

 

I'm asking these questions not to argue but because I respect your knowledge...   And I agree that we have mostly non-separators.  But couldn't a better passing game coordinator find ways to get guys open anyway especially considering we face more zone than man defense?  

 

And, btw, I'm not anti-Brady.  After an inconsistent start, he really found a groove.   He effectively passed the ball against teams that were weak against the pass and ran the ball against teams that were weak against the run.  But even good OCs have weaknesses.  People in NE said Daboll's weakness before he came here was the run game.  To a casual observer like me, Brady's weakness seems to be the mid and deep passing game.  Though I do question myself because I know our receiver corps has shortcomings too.  

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

I'm asking these questions not to argue but because I respect your knowledge...   And I agree that we have mostly non-separators.  But couldn't a better passing game coordinator find ways to get guys open anyway especially considering we face more zone than man defense?  

 

And, btw, I'm not anti-Brady.  After an inconsistent start, he really found a groove.   He effectively passed the ball against teams that were weak against the pass and ran the ball against teams that were weak against the run.  But even good OCs have weaknesses.  People in NE said Daboll's weakness before he came here was the run game.  To a casual observer like me, Brady's weakness seems to be the mid and deep passing game.  Though I do question myself because I know our receiver corps has shortcomings too.  

 

I think he has found ways to get guys open. Could they improve, sure. You can always improve. But I think the overwhelming reason our WR separation rates are as they are is because of who we have there. Coleman didn't separate in college. Hollins has never separated in his 8 year NFL career. They have been our two primary boundary receiver most of the year. Expecting them to transform into guys they have never been is unrealistic IMO. There is still hope you can improve Coleman's separation a bit. He is still young, he is a rookie and some of it is coachable. But it was never going to happen overnight and with Hollins he just is who he is at this point. 

[Danger Mouse]

I don’t get strong HC vibes from Brady. Looks like more of a details man. But he’s the sort of dude it’s easy to underestimate 

[bigK14094]

15 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Keeping Joe Brady is as easy as writing a check…, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

Assistants make $3mil or so.  Head coaches make 6-8 mil I think.   I suspect the money might matter to some but not all coordinators.  He who wants to run his own show will go.  Security minded will stay for something short of the total difference for family stability.  In either case, its a good l iving but an all consuming job.

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

Observing the Buffalo Bills offense this year has been awesome from not only a stats standpoint, but from the eye test as well.
 

Our offense has been so efficient and I can think of very few plays that I thought were boneheaded calls this season. Only one off the top of my head is the trick play against the Ravens that got Josh throttled. 
 

I think we can all agree that our most important player, Josh, has looked awesome this year. Yeah his stats are a little down, but we are winning with a more balanced approach instead of asking Josh to make magic happen every single game. 
 

What I wonder is if we were to offer Brady a $6 million a year to be our OC and secure him in Buffalo. He’d be making a salary equivalent of the 12th highest paid HC in the NFL. I think he is absolutely perfect for Josh and this is the offense we’ve needed here for so long that has balance and effectiveness.
 

I realize he may want to be a HC and see if that works out for him. But curious why big deals aren’t offered to coordinators more often.  

They have been done before if you have a willing owner, a HC with big pull, and can delay a promotion with cash.  I’ll give you one of the first examples when it was not normal at all.

 

In 2002, Jon Gruden replaced Tony Dungy as Dungy was a defensive coach, and just couldn’t get far enough in the playoffs.  So the Bucs arguably had a the best defense in the NFL back then after Wade left the Bills.  Monte Kiffin was a defensive genius with his then novel Tampa 2 as he had the right players for it.

 

The Glaziers who were known for being cheap once they bought Man U and poured tons of $ in that team, but they wanted a SB.  Gruden convinced the Glaziers to spend $4 mil per year on Kiffin to keep him instead of taking a HC College football job as he had offers.  He stayed and the Bucs won the SB.  It was basically in the 01 to 02 time period.  The Bucs defense remained great for several years until he followed his son and went to college as he was sick if Coach ego in Gruden.

 

Most people wouldn’t know this point, but I’ve lived here since 5 days prior to the Bills/Giants SB at the old sombrero.  I moved here for graduate school and stayed, built a life, and very happy I stayed here.  It’s a great place to raise kids.

 

So a long answer to your question and there are two positive variables.  First, the Pegulas are filthy rich at 7.7 billion.  He’s no mark Davis that looks for splash coaching hires, and second loves Buffalo. The last point is those minority owners infused a lot of cash to offset the increased new stadium costs.  They will have a jewel of a new stadium in a year and a half so it’s to his benefit to bring the Lombardy to Buffalo.

[Alphadawg7]

18 hours ago, Mike in Horseheads said:

One bad game in these playoffs and most everyone will be ready to tar and feather him

 

Yup...that is exactly true around here unfortunately.  

 

Brady has been excellent.  There is no perfect OC (or coach for that matter), people can point to plays at times during the season where maybe we should have or could have done something different, but that is true for every OC in NFL history.  Not to mention, we don't know if Allen audible out of a play on any of those given moments either.  

 

But the bottom line is Brady has proven to be everything we hoped and needed him to be, for both the Bills and Allen.  He has done an excellent job both under difficult circumstances last year and throughout this season.  

 

No matter what happens in the playoffs, I really hope the Bills find a way to keep Brady at least one more season, especially since there should be even more tools in the tool box for the full season next than he even had this year personnel wise as I expect some investment into the WR position this offseason.

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he has found ways to get guys open. Could they improve, sure. You can always improve. But I think the overwhelming reason our WR separation rates are as they are is because of who we have there. Coleman didn't separate in college. Hollins has never separated in his 8 year NFL career. They have been our two primary boundary receiver most of the year. Expecting them to transform into guys they have never been is unrealistic IMO. There is still hope you can improve Coleman's separation a bit. He is still young, he is a rookie and some of it is coachable. But it was never going to happen overnight and with Hollins he just is who he is at this point. 

Gunner, people like to toss words around like ‘separator’ when describing receivers. But that’s clearly not the only way to distinguish yourself in the NFL. If as you say our guys were never separators, then what are they? And I’m assuming our coaches know what those strengths are and are designing an offense around them, no? 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Gunner, people like to toss words around like ‘separator’ when describing receivers. But that’s clearly not the only way to distinguish yourself in the NFL. If as you say our guys were never separators, then what are they? And I’m assuming our coaches know what those strengths are and are designing an offense around them, no? 

 

I never said it was the only way to distinguish yourself. Our guys have other strengths. They bring size, physicality, Hollins is surprisingly short space shifty for his size and is pretty smart in making himself available to his QB and Keon is a beast with the ball in his hands. I still think you need a separator, particularly who can win on the boundary and I think Amari looks like a sticking plaster solution to that and they will have to revisit it in the offseason. But in response specifically to why are we not seeing more receiver separation my answer is: because of who we have at receiver.

[HappyDays]

6 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Enough wafting Josh’s prime

 

[Big Blitz]

If there isn’t an “ideal” situation he absolutely should NOT take the job.  
 

Why?

 

Is this offense going to be worse next year?  It’s going to be elite again maybe better.  As long as he has Allen.  
 

He will be next year’s Ben Johnson.  
 

The number 1 priority top of everyone’s list.  

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, TheBrownBear said:

I agree.  A HUGE improvement over the incompetent Dorsey, but I'm not seeing a ton of imaginative stuff out of Brady.  I think this year's offensive success rests almost entirely on the quantum leap in maturity that Josh has made at QB over the last year.

 

The only thing I'll say to this is that the reduction in mistakes happened right after Brady took over last year. He re-distributed targets to our most efficient pass catchers and stopped feeding into Allen's worst tendencies, where I thought Dorsey was way too boom or bust in the way he structured the offense and divvied out targets. So yes I acknowledge that Allen himself is most responsible for his increased efficiency, but I give Brady his due credit as well.

[T master]

19 hours ago, VaMilBill said:

Observing the Buffalo Bills offense this year has been awesome from not only a stats standpoint, but from the eye test as well.
 

Our offense has been so efficient and I can think of very few plays that I thought were boneheaded calls this season. Only one off the top of my head is the trick play against the Ravens that got Josh throttled. 
 

I think we can all agree that our most important player, Josh, has looked awesome this year. Yeah his stats are a little down, but we are winning with a more balanced approach instead of asking Josh to make magic happen every single game. 
 

What I wonder is if we were to offer Brady a $6 million a year to be our OC and secure him in Buffalo. He’d be making a salary equivalent of the 12th highest paid HC in the NFL. I think he is absolutely perfect for Josh and this is the offense we’ve needed here for so long that has balance and effectiveness.
 

I realize he may want to be a HC and see if that works out for him. But curious why big deals aren’t offered to coordinators more often.  

 

I think what may have a big influence on if Brady decides to leave or not is if the Bills don't win it all . Given the fact that it's his first season as the Bills OC and he has done with this squad what he has and then doesn't make it all the way to win a Lombardi i think he may want to see with another draft with new players or both offense & defense how much better they could be .

 

If there is 1 weak spot on our team it is the Defense and i feel Beane see's that and will focus on getting better on that side of the ball and could even see that Oliver isn't living up to his draft status & new contract and trade him because he doesn't produce as he should .

 

So i hope Brady will come back even if they do win maybe knowing what he might be able to do with new players to make more history with Josh and lest say either back to back SB wins or a 3 peat . Yah never know ...

 

GO BILLS !!! 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I never said it was the only way to distinguish yourself. Our guys have other strengths. They bring size, physicality, Hollins is surprisingly short space shifty for his size and is pretty smart in making himself available to his QB and Keon is a beast with the ball in his hands. I still think you need a separator, particularly who can win on the boundary and I think Amari looks like a sticking plaster solution to that and they will have to revisit it in the offseason. But in response specifically to why are we not seeing more receiver separation my answer is: because of who we have at receiver.

I apologize. I didn’t mean that you specifically said it was the only measure. My point is that there are different characteristics at almost every position. It’s up to the coaching staff to design an offense or defense that plays to their strengths.