Bills vs Ravens Divisional Round

[klos63]

13 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

Baltimore was doing their best to acclimate. It was 33 in Maryland and they were practicing with the field house doors wide open and fans blowing the cold in.

 

Shame for them it will be Carhartt Thermals+Ski Mask and Hat Cold up here.

I was referring to Bills players, sorry I wasn't clear. 

 

[zow2]

11 minutes ago, stlbills13 said:

Do we think Flowers will be declared Out today or will he be tagged as questionable?

 

I'm sure that injured knee is gonna perform wonderfully in air temp of 13 degrees (feels like temp -3).

 

 

 

[klos63]

1 minute ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Yup. All the experts have pointed out the Ravens have scored a TD on every drive in every game. They don't even have a Punter on the roster. On defense every opponent drive has resulted in a punt or a turnover. And Henry has added 20 pounds of muscle mass and runs a 3.9 40. They also have 22 all-pro starters. They're so great that coach Harbaugh might rest QB Jackson and save have for the showdown with KC.

Yep, and most Bills fans think we will win because it's cold out. Not much logic going on right now. 

 

[uninja]

1 minute ago, zow2 said:

 

I'm sure that injured knee is gonna perform wonderfully in air temp of 13 degrees (feels like temp -3).

 

 

 

 

I think they will do everything in their power to obfuscate his availability for Sunday as much as possible but I think it's doubtful he plays and even if he's active he'll be on a major pitch count and as a decoy more than anything.

[Steptide]

The field isn't heated is it?! 

[Coffeesforclosers]

2 minutes ago, klos63 said:

I was referring to Bills players, sorry I wasn't clear. 

 

 

No worries, I'm usually quicker on the uptake.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

The cold will effect the team that is losing more than the team that's winning 

 

Bills get out to a lead and control time of possession, and I believe you will see a big bills win

[Kelly to Allen]

5 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Yep, and most Bills fans think we will win because it's cold out. Not much logic going on right now. 

 

 

I think buffalo is going to win because they are the better team with the better QB 

Edited 6 hours ago by Kelly to Allen

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

45 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Dude in Sirius radio just said Bills fall apart if they get behind early. As example use the Texans game and said Bills had “no chance” in that game after falling behind. 
 

Bills lost that game on a 59 yd walk off field goal. 
 

The talkers in these shows know less about the Bulls than does the average TBD poster

I actually don’t think that is wrong. Bills D really struggles when they get behind. If we get a lead, it really helps our D, as it turns the other team a bit more one dimensional. 

[Sierra Foothills]

On 1/16/2025 at 6:16 AM, Simon said:

You know, there's a short book ready to be written here:

 

A Bills fan sells his soul to the Devil in exchange for unlimited wealth and extended life until the Bills win a Super Bowl.

He then spends that life and that money finding ways to sabotage the Bills to keep them from winning.

The big reveal at the end is that the book isn't current, it was actually written back in 1970.

 

Let me think about this for a few years.

 

On 1/16/2025 at 6:31 AM, Scott7975 said:

I take these type of stats with a grain of salt but some don't. This one aint good for us if you buy into it. This is only the 4th time since the merger that the 1st team all pro and the 2nd team all pro met in the divisional round or earlier. The other 3 1st team all pros won that game.

 

Stat?

 

23 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

I agree Baltimore is damn good, 2nd best AFC team behind us...and their D has turned it around... BUT, some context for who their D has turned it around against...

(taken from YardsPerPass on twitter)

Russel Wilson (2 times - 1 loss)

Herbert

Hurts (loss)

Tim Boyle/Tommy Devito

CJ Stroud (no dell or diggs)

Bailey Zappe / DTR 

 

not exactly a murderers row, or Josh Allen and the Bills offense,  that they have used to get to the best passing D in the league....

 

I aint scared of that defense. 

 

Thank you ror reiterating this significant and overlooked aspect of the Ravens' defensive "improvement."

 

22 hours ago, TrentEdwardsCheckDownOn4th said:

I still have two tickets if anyone is interested.  Section 313 row 15. Lowering price to $180/ticket.  Much cheaper than ticketmaster 

 

Thank you for trying not to sell to Ravens fans. Much appreciated.

 

BUMP

 

21 hours ago, boyst said:

Our offense was able to move the ball but not consistently and there were far too many errors that did not sustain and drive for points. Coleman's drop was a thing of frustration.

 

Fittingly one of the last things said in the broadcast was "these two teams will see each other later again in the year."

 

Three plays which all significantly swung the game away from the Bills were the Kincaid drop, the trick play, and the missed field goal.

 

10 hours ago, DapperCam said:

Rewatching the highlights of our first matchup. A few thoughts, with an eye on how we might play differently this time. Warning, this is sort of stream of consciousness.

- Kincaid killed us with a drop on our first drive. We were moving the ball pretty well before that.
- I think in a playoff game, now that we know how dangerous the Ravens offense is, we probably go for it at 4th and 2 at the 50 yard line.
- Douglas majorly wussed out on the big Henry TD. He was in perfect position to get in the way and he 100% made a business decision there.
- Hamlin also should have been in pretty good position to slow Henry down on the TD run, but he took his sweet time getting over there and by then Henry had the angle.
- Two holding penalties on the same set of downs killed the Bills second possession. You can't recover from that. Didn't see a replay to see if they were bogus or not.
- Bills 3rd possession was stalled out on a 3rd and 1. We probably tush push now.
- A recurring theme this game is Spector and Cam Lewis getting picked on. Majority of plays seem to be targeting them.
- They sent an extra blocker to take out Ed Oliver's knees most running plays. They were obviously trying to eliminate him. Not sure how he can counter that, or if other guys just need to step up.
- Morrow wasn't on the field much, but he was noticeably slow and bad. Milano or Bernard in those same spots make stops.
- I'm noticing Casey Toohill getting burned some as well. He isn't even on the roster anymore.
- I just saw a defensive lineup against a big screen play that got a first down where they attacked the side of the field that had Toohill, Cam Lewis, and Spector. Just goes to show how different it will be.
- Ravens 2nd TD targeted Morrow and it looked like was running in sand.
- First drive of the second half the Bills stall out on 3rd and 1. We probably tush push now.
- First big play of the second half for the Ravens, guess who it's targeting? Our buddy Spector.
- Ravens convert a big 3rd and 11. The ball is placed between Cam Lewis and Spector.
- 3rd and 14 and the Ravens convert on a screen pass, wtf. Not exactly sure what happened here. I think a LBer needs to get off their block to prevent this, or Von Miller needs to be a hair less aggressive.
- Ravens 3rd TD targeting Williams in coverage on a wheel route. Decent chance Milano or Bernard can make the play there instead of being 3 steps behind.
- Poor recognition by Allen, or maybe poor play design in 3rd and long on the next Bills drive. Ravens bring the house and there is no hot route, everything is down the field and all the WRs still have their backs turned. Allen has to eat it.
- Bills get a fumble, huge! But on the next drive they are passing on 3rd and 2 and it's broken up. But Harbaugh is an idiot and gifts us a first down by called back-to-back timeouts.
- On the next 3rd and long the Ravens only bring 4 rushers, but steamroll the Bills offensive line. Really bad blocking here.

Okay, I'm not even going to do the second half. It's too upsetting to watch the Bills start to scratch and claw their way back into this game just to throw it all away on a trick play.

TLDR;

- Other than the first big Henry run, almost every big play for the Ravens was targeting a player that isn't even on the roster anymore, or isn't going to see the field much.
- Bills seemed to stall out on 3rd and short a very unusually high percentage. I think they were trying to avoid the middle of the defense. Hopefully they have something figured out here...
- DBs were making business decisions here. Hopefully that won't be true during a playoff game.
- There was very little passing the ball down the field. Everything was around the LOS. Curious to see if that changes in the rematch (I think it will).
- Cam Lewis, Williams, Morrow and Spector occupying the middle of the field basically ensured we had no chance of winning this game.

 

Also Justice Hill probably hurt us more than Henry did.

 

1 hour ago, Mango said:

I could be wrong, but I don’t think Allen plays with one either. If Lamar can’t throw the ball with a glove he can’t. He isn’t the first and wont be the last. I think this is blown way out of proportion. This isn’t the GB/Giants game. It’ll be cold but I think manageable with hand warmers for the QB. 

 

We shall see. Relevant or not...

 

Josh Allen hand size: 10.125"

Lamar Jackson hand size: 9.5"

 

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Let me think about this for a few years.

 

Holy *****, it's you isn't it?

[Sierra Foothills]

14 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Yep, and most Bills fans think we will win because it's cold out. Not much logic going on right now. 

 

Re: contributing factors, believe what you'd like about how weather affects certain teams.

 

13 minutes ago, Steptide said:

The field isn't heated is it?! 

 

I don't think the Highmark field is heated.

 

[Kelly to Allen]

I've never in my life seen a more bizarre discourse on teams and QBs entering a playoff game where one team was so obviously better but everyone in the media and in the betting markets thought the worse road team was better. Obviously the week 4 game plays some role but it's really really weird. 

 

 

 

 

[colin]

i look at beating baltimore as breaking a giant chain.  if you can't break one part of it, it just crushes you, if you can, the chain loses connection and it's much much easier to beat.  not saying they get blown out, but they either look like they simply cannot be stopped, or they look like they simply cannot get to the endzone and win.  they don't seem to have the hot and cold streaks like we and so many other teams do.

 

obviously they are built this way.  they play max advantage w the rpos and henry and jackson, dirty physical o line and d, extra linemen and multiple tight end sets.  they had no wrs on the pitch vs pittz for like half of their plays.  on d, the press up front, are huge, grab and rough, and show multiple pressure and blitz when they feel like it.  it's easy to see where the massive confidence in this team comes from, they can pretty much beat any other team in an actual fist fight.

 

to me, if it's cold and windy enough to impact the passing game a little, it's advantage baltimore.  both passing games will be slightly impacted, but the run is solid and they are way ahead of us there (vs our d instead of our o vs their d).  if it's freezing cold and frozen and the ball feels like a rock and there are real winds or gusts, it's advantage buffalo.  in a real miserable cold or windy day, lamar will simply not be able to get the ball very far with accuracy, and needs a wide based given his short stature to generate force to throw.  the run game will be less impacted, but allen can still lace a dime in a frosty hurricane.  if we have a game like that, like our 2021 game, then the bills d goes base most of the time, surfs on the edges to stop rpos, and just dares them to pass while keying on the tight ends because that's what they got.  on the other side, baltimore still has to defend teh pass, and if they don't it's going to hurt them.  as big as they are, baltimore plays nickel a lot too.  detroit showed us that if you play base even vs heavy formations vs blo it hurts.

[CincyBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I actually don’t think that is wrong. Bills D really struggles when they get behind. If we get a lead, it really helps our D, as it turns the other team a bit more one dimensional. 

Wait, didn't the Bills fall behind the Cards 17 - 3, Titans 10 - 0 & Pats 14 - 0 late in the 2nd quarter only to go on 31- 11, 34 - 0 & 24 - 0 scoring runs? 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

9 minutes ago, klos63 said:

Yep, and most Bills fans think we will win because it's cold out. Not much logic going on right now. 

 

I don’t think the cold thing is completely illogical tbh.  Bills are leading the league in fumbles forced and have the least lost fumbles and are more used to that field/the conditions.  Ravens love to run the ball.  Obviously anyone saying they’re definitely gonna win because it’s cold are a little crazy haha but it’s in the pro column I’d say 

[Logic]

https://www.theringer.com/2025/01/17/nfl/baltimore-ravens-buffalo-bills-matchup-preview-divisional-round

I thought this was a reasonably enjoyable article from the Ringer this morning. "The ball-knower's guide to Bills vs Ravens".

It points out some of the ways in which Baltimore's strengths are bad news for the Bills. Specifically, the Marlon Humphrey/Kyle Hamilton combo usually capably limits slot receivers and TEs, Baltimore is good 1st in the league defensively against jumbo formations, Baltimore's 12 and 21 personnel packages may pose (and have posed) difficult challenges for the Bills defense, and Baltimore's key passing concepts are good (and offer diverse options) against teams that play heavy zone coverage.

On the other hand, the writer (who ultimately picks Baltimore to win) completely fails to mention that Shakir, Bernard, Milano, and Johnson all missed the first matchup, or that the Bills have since added Amari Cooper. Those all seem like very important things to mention in a "ball-knower's guide". Other than those omissions, I thought it was a nice little writeup.

Edited 6 hours ago by Logic

[Sierra Foothills]

4 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

I've never in my life seen a more bizarre discourse on teams and QBs entering a playoff game where one team was so obviously better but everyone in the media and in the betting markets thought the worse road team was better. Obviously the week 4 game plays some role but it's really really weird.

 

In fairness, the score of the first game was 35-10.

 

[BringBackFlutie]

20 minutes ago, Steptide said:

The field isn't heated is it?! 

 

4 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

Re: contributing factors, believe what you'd like about how weather affects certain teams.

 

 

I don't think the Highmark field is heated.

 

 

It's definitely not. I'm dumbfounded that another professional football coaching staff seems to be as lazy in their analysis of Buffalo as an ESPN shock analyst.

[dorquemada]

10 hours ago, Low Positive said:

The football world thinks that read option between Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson that we saw in the WC round is an unstoppable play. It's up tp the Bills to prove them wrong. 

 

If Watt had chosen the right player to tackle a single time that game might have been different.  Literally perfect(ly wrong)