Bills vs Ravens Divisional Round

[Coffeesforclosers]

14 minutes ago, stevewin said:

Does the hymn to the goddess Artemis sound like the Shout song?

 

Uh, Obviously!

[PaattMaann]

1 hour ago, SaulGoodman said:

Tough call.

 

I think Baltimore’s actually underrated by many. They might be playing better than anyone in the league recently, and their defense has really turned it around. They look like a complete team. 
 

On the other hand, Flowers is banged up, and KC generally contains Lamar well. They’ve owned Baltimore in general. 
 

In the playoffs, it often comes down to QB play, and Allen’s been the better postseason QB. So I’d probably rather draw Baltimore.

 

I agree Baltimore is damn good, 2nd best AFC team behind us...and their D has turned it around...

 

BUT, some context for who their D has turned it around against...

 

(taken from YardsPerPass on twitter)

Russel Wilson (2 times - 1 loss)

Herbert

Hurts (loss)

Tim Boyle/Tommy Devito

CJ Stroud (no dell or diggs)

Bailey Zappe / DTR 

 

not exactly a murderers row, or Josh Allen and the Bills offense,  that they have used to get to the best passing D in the league....

 

I aint scared of that defense. 

[MasterStrategist]

38 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

Let e start by saying that I do not believe that our backup rookie safety who has struggled to get on the field is going to play a big part in the game on Sunday. 

But if he does.....

I wouldn't be shocked if he comes in on running downs for Hamlin. He is a bit more of a thumper than Damar. The reason I mention is because if we do go 3 LB's or 5 DT's at points I think we go single high safety and Damar is also first off the field. 

Not saying Damar is all-pro, but dude brings the lumber and isn't afraid of contact...contrary to many on here's takes.

 

Even if Bishop is a better tackler, it's marginal at best and not something you do at this point of season...my as well start Bishop, which I have no problem with if coaches see him as an improvement.

 

Sorry this is calling out your post, it's directed at those asking us to make a major philosophy change.  There's a saying of you stick with what got you here.  Not to say adjustments can't occur, but anyone expecting us to take Taron and/or our 2 safeties off the field are just going to be disappointed. 

 

Plenty of ways to scheme up better run lane defense, and taking away certain options.  It's a give and take.  Only way you put Dorian in for Taron, in heavy looks, is you're specifically selling out on run defense.  Dorian will be a liability in pass defense against these TEs and Justice Hill.

 

On 3rd and obvious pass downs, I see us going with our 3-2-6  dime looks more than we've used.  Put Milano or Bernard in a position to blitz, and more speed with Ingram coming in.  Smaller defenders on blitzes have worked to neutralize Lamar escaping

[PaattMaann]

13 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Not saying Damar is all-pro, but dude brings the lumber and isn't afraid of contact...contrary to many on here's takes.

 

Even if Bishop is a better tackler, it's marginal at best and not something you do at this point of season...my as well start Bishop, which I have no problem with if coaches see him as an improvement.

 

Sorry this is calling out your post, it's directed at those asking us to make a major philosophy change.  There's a saying of you stick with what got you here.  Not to say adjustments can't occur, but anyone expecting us to take Taron and/or our 2 safeties off the field are just going to be disappointed. 

 

Plenty of ways to scheme up better run lane defense, and taking away certain options.  It's a give and take.  Only way you put Dorian in for Taron, in heavy looks, is you're specifically selling out on run defense.  Dorian will be a liability in pass defense against these TEs and Justice Hill.

 

On 3rd and obvious pass downs, I see us going with our 3-2-6  dime looks more than we've used.  Put Milano or Bernard in a position to blitz, and more speed with Ingram coming in.  Smaller defenders on blitzes have worked to neutralize Lamar escaping

 

 

ding ding ding, this is correct.

 

The "adjustments" or "different packages" we will see are 3 LBs (Taron off) when Ravens go 2 back sets, and the 3-2-6 dime mirror on 3rd and long...there's no magic bullet, its just about execution. Those things CAN work. We wont see crazy, never tried before things...doing that in crunch time with the season on the line is moronic. 

 

We will NOT see them rotating Hamlin and Bishop lol, that's literally asinine to think. 

Edited Thursday at 03:57 PM by PaattMaann

[JP51]

14 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Not saying Damar is all-pro, but dude brings the lumber and isn't afraid of contact...contrary to many on here's takes.

 

Even if Bishop is a better tackler, it's marginal at best and not something you do at this point of season...my as well start Bishop, which I have no problem with if coaches see him as an improvement.

 

Sorry this is calling out your post, it's directed at those asking us to make a major philosophy change.  There's a saying of you stick with what got you here.  Not to say adjustments can't occur, but anyone expecting us to take Taron and/or our 2 safeties off the field are just going to be disappointed. 

 

Plenty of ways to scheme up better run lane defense, and taking away certain options.  It's a give and take.  Only way you put Dorian in for Taron, in heavy looks, is you're specifically selling out on run defense.  Dorian will be a liability in pass defense against these TEs and Justice Hill.

 

On 3rd and obvious pass downs, I see us going with our 3-2-6  dime looks more than we've used.  Put Milano or Bernard in a position to blitz, and more speed with Ingram coming in.  Smaller defenders on blitzes have worked to neutralize Lamar escaping

I am agreeing here... these guys can get you every which way but loose... I think you identify your strength... shore up you weakness recognize they will move the ball and shut them down to FGs in the red zone. I do not think a re imagination of the defense at this juncture buys you much against their attack. You have to step up and make plays sure...  get turnovers sure... but to me the bottom line is the Offense needs to score TDs to win this game... if you can play Red Zone defense you can win. Our offense needs to beat their Defense worse then their offense beats ours... simplification I know but thats how I see it playing out. 

Edited Thursday at 03:58 PM by JP51

[LEBills]

 

Going into the Broncos game, a lot of the circumstances and trends pointed to a pretty easy Bills win. Going into this week with the Ravens, there is trends in the Ravens favor which makes this game very much a toss up.

 

The Bills opened as a 1.5 favorite before it was quickly bet to a ravens -1.5 line. Only six times in Lamar Jackson’s  career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 straight up in those games.

 

Over the last decade, teams that win the regular season showdown are 42-24 in the playoffs. Teams that win the regular season meeting by 20+ points are 10-1. 

 

Favorites in night games have won 79% of the time this season. Lamar is 1-2 in playoff night games including a past loss to the Bills.

 

Lamar Jackson led teams are 1-1 in sub zero temperature games. It is expected to be like 8 degrees Sunday.

 

In home games against teams with a win percentage of 66% or better, the Bills average over 31.8 PPG.

 

Ravens are the second most penalized team in the NFL (jets are #1 of course). Carl Cheffers averages over 10 penalty calls a game. Home teams have won nearly 73% of games he has reffed this season

 

Brandon Stephens has surrendered more yards than any other CB this season. He also had 5 PIs called against him. Marlon Humphries had 4 PIs and Nate Wiggins had 3. Carl Cheffers called 32 PIs this year.

 

The Ravens defense is #1 in ypc against both running backs and quarterbacks this season. KC and Detroit were 2nd and 3rd best vs RBs and Den was 2nd best vs rushing QBs. The Bills beat those other three teams.

 

Baltimore has given up the fourth most receiving yards to RBs this year. Bills have allowed the most, but Henry is not know for his pass catching. 

 

Bills are +24 in turnovers (16 ints and 16 fumble recoveries). The Ravens are +6 with 17 total takeaways. Lamar has not thrown many ints, but the Ravens have lost 7 fumbles. Bills sack differential is +25, Ravens is +30.

 

(To editorialize a bit: very winnable game. Play our game on offense but try to add some deep shots to Keon and Amari. Get one takeaway on defense and let the Ravens shoot themselves in the foot with penalties).

[jaybeezee]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

I respect Lamar for this take. It’s always bothered me to a small degree how close Bills players are too players of other teams. The hugging after the game, etc. I miss the bitterness of the 80’s and 90’s when teams truly hated each other.

 

I respect it too! Im tired of these guys hugging and smiling with each other game after game. Some of the trash talk that the Ravens are doing is rejuvenating. It makes the game more interesting. I miss the competitive NFL, similar to the old NBA where the Pistons hated the Bulls and they showed it on and off the court.

 

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

Let e start by saying that I do not believe that our backup rookie safety who has struggled to get on the field is going to play a big part in the game on Sunday. 

But if he does.....

I wouldn't be shocked if he comes in on running downs for Hamlin. He is a bit more of a thumper than Damar. The reason I mention is because if we do go 3 LB's or 5 DT's at points I think we go single high safety and Damar is also first off the field. 

 

Im trying to figure out who they took off the field for Cam Lewis to play 43% of the snaps. Everyone that I think they would have taken off the field for played 100% against Denver. Johnson would have accounted for only 2% but Ingram played 2% so thats probably who covered Johnson. I thought maybe its special teams but they listed that separate.  Milano for some of them maybe?

 

Edited Thursday at 04:28 PM by Scott7975

[JP51]

Good Lord, can this game get here already... not a commentary on anyones posts... I am just tired of thinking about it constantly... I know I need help... 

[Beck Water]

42 minutes ago, PaattMaann said:

 

I agree Baltimore is damn good, 2nd best AFC team behind us...and their D has turned it around...

 

BUT, some context for who their D has turned it around against...

 

(taken from YardsPerPass on twitter)

Russel Wilson (2 times - 1 loss)

Herbert

Hurts (loss)

Tim Boyle/Tommy Devito

CJ Stroud (no dell or diggs)

Bailey Zappe / DTR 

 

not exactly a murderers row, or Josh Allen and the Bills offense,  that they have used to get to the best passing D in the league....

 

I aint scared of that defense. 

 

The Ravens curb-stomping of the Houston Texans on Christmas Day occurred 4 days after CJ Stroud watched his close friend Tank Dell get his knee totally wrecked vs. KC on Saturday.

 

That was a triple whammy:

1) Stroud was visibly distraught and struggling emotionally, and it probably took him a day or 2 to reset

2) The Texans receiver corps, already missing Diggs, was left mighty thin

3) They had minimal time to regroup and practice with alternate receivers

From the various interviews and media comments, I get the impression the Ravens are feeling themselves a bit.   

 

OK

 

We'll see on Sunday.

[MikePJ76]

in regards to the Ravens defense you can count me as concerned.

 

The Dolphins running a similar scheme gave the bills a hard time on offense most of the game in buffalo and Baltimore did a really good job against the bills offense.

 

This is a tough matchup and it seems that something scheme wise gives Allen and/or the offense some problems.  

 

Everything about this game is hard.  The Bills have to play their best game of the Allen era to win it.

[YattaOkasan]

3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Im trying to figure out who they took off the field for Cam Lewis to play 43% of the snaps. Everyone that I think they would have taken off the field for played 100% against Denver. Johnson would have accounted for only 2%. I thought maybe its special teams but they listed that separate.  Milano for some of them maybe?

 

I think DL and Milano.  42 total snaps mean a total of 168 DL snaps.  Sum of all DL players here is 158.  So 10 plays of dime with odd mirror and another 8 plays with milano off the field.  The 1 play taron was off seems to have gone to ingram.

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, stevewin said:

One small observation - Rapp on One Bills Live yesterday was barefoot 😛

 

Presumably a member of the Church of Mack

 

 

 

I also subscribe to barefoot. I can't stand stuff on my feet. I even walk barefoot in the snow like when I am taking trash out or something. Been doing it for most of my life. I wear shocks and shoes only when I have to.

[YoloinOhio]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

And the 2nd line of defense won't include Cam Lewis or Cole Bishop... 

plus it was Cole bishop fresh off of barely any TC and no game experience. 

[YattaOkasan]

2 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

in regards to the Ravens defense you can count me as concerned.

 

The Dolphins running a similar scheme gave the bills a hard time on offense most of the game in buffalo and Baltimore did a really good job against the bills offense.

 

This is a tough matchup and it seems that something scheme wise gives Allen and/or the offense some problems.  

 

Everything about this game is hard.  The Bills have to play their best game of the Allen era to win it.

hard time is interesting.  we average 2.75 points per drive (this also doesnt count the INT at the goaline that otherwise would be 7 points if not for it bouncing off Coleman).  2.75 points per drive would still be 4th in the league (though lower than our 2.92 average).  Maybe thats considered "tough" but i think Miami's ball control is what made that seem tougher than it was.  

[MikePJ76]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

hard time is interesting.  we average 2.75 points per drive (this also doesnt count the INT at the goaline that otherwise would be 7 points if not for it bouncing off Coleman).  2.75 points per drive would still be 4th in the league (though lower than our 2.92 average).  Maybe thats considered "tough" but i think Miami's ball control is what made that seem tougher than it was.  

yep fair points but it looked different than most miami games when we were on offense.  

 

more importantly Baltimore has better personnel with the exception of maybe Ramsey outside.

[Buffalo4Life01]

9 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

in regards to the Ravens defense you can count me as concerned.

 

The Dolphins running a similar scheme gave the bills a hard time on offense most of the game in buffalo and Baltimore did a really good job against the bills offense.

 

This is a tough matchup and it seems that something scheme wise gives Allen and/or the offense some problems.  

 

Everything about this game is hard.  The Bills have to play their best game of the Allen era to win it.

People keep saying this but it absolutely goes both ways.  The Ravens HAVE to play their best game of the Lamar era to win also.  Their B game isn't going to beat Buffalo in Buffalo and even their A game might not be enough.  

[Coffeesforclosers]

 

12 minutes ago, JP51 said:

Good Lord, can this game get here already... not a commentary on anyones posts... I am just tired of thinking about it constantly... I know I need help... 

 

Don't worry. Joe Brady got a fat slice of Humble Pie in the first matchup. We'll be ready.

 

[MikePJ76]

Just now, Buffalo4Life01 said:

People keep saying this but it absolutely goes both ways.  The Ravens HAVE to play their best game of the Lamar era to win also.  Their B game isn't going to beat Buffalo in Buffalo and even their A game might not be enough.  

Yea there is no reason to believe that is not true.

 

I am just concerned with our viewpoint though.  We are outmatched with their offense vs our defense.  If we had a big run stopping line that I and everyone else knew could shut down henry then it would be different.  The Bills style of defense and personnel is outmatched  physically in my opinion.  Usually when this happens you end up making mistakes to over come the weakness and the offense takes advantage of it.

 

We kind of did that last week to Denver.

 

My personal opinion on this game is that if the Bills are great in the redzone they win the game.  If the Bills force field goals early in the game I think it sets them up to win late and get Baltmore out of their simple running offense and makes them have to do something in the passing game under pressure.  

[JP51]

1 minute ago, MikePJ76 said:

Yea there is no reason to believe that is not true.

 

I am just concerned with our viewpoint though.  We are outmatched with their offense vs our defense.  If we had a big run stopping line that I and everyone else knew could shut down henry then it would be different.  The Bills style of defense and personnel is outmatched  physically in my opinion.  Usually when this happens you end up making mistakes to over come the weakness and the offense takes advantage of it.

 

We kind of did that last week to Denver.

 

My personal opinion on this game is that if the Bills are great in the redzone they win the game.  If the Bills force field goals early in the game I think it sets them up to win late and get Baltmore out of their simple running offense and makes them have to do something in the passing game under pressure.  

I have been saying this for sure... we win its because our Offense beats their Defense worse than their Offense beats ours... that simple.. to do this you gonna need to force FGs in the Red Zone and score TDs... winning the turnover battle or at minimum keeping it even is also critical.  It can be done.. we just need to wait to find out if we can do it...  Now... Baltimore brings their B game and we bring our A... its over we win ... and vice versa... but my vantage point is both teams bringing their best...