Bills vs Ravens Divisional Round

[90sBills]

28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

This rendition of the Chiefs is not built to come from behind by 24 points. Back then they had Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce in their prime and defenses hadn't come close to figuring out how to stop that style of offense yet.

 

Not that it matters. They won't fall behind by 24 points against the Texans. They'll play a close game and then make a play or two at the end to win it, or the Texans will make a play to lose it. That's how the 2024 Chiefs are built to win.

Yeah I agree. Houston has a puncher’s chance. I’ll be taking the +7.5 points. That’s too high imo. 

[Big Turk]

Why do I have this strange feeling that Von is going to remind us of how and why he got his nickname Sunday?

[Rubes]

1 hour ago, asyranok said:

I read that in one place, then checked betting apps and other websites and saw it was Bills -1.5. So I think that was a typo. Where did you see it? I think I saw the typo on ESPN. Not sure.

Oh damn. Ok. That's getting confusing.

 

Ravens vs. Bills Odds See Massive Swing In Less Than 24 Hours (si.com)

 

Quote

Buffalo, which is hosting Baltimore, opened as a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook after beating the Broncos 31-7 on Sunday. Now, less than 24 hours after securing that impressive win, the Bills are 1.5-point underdogs.

 

[BuffaloMatt]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Most of the conversation is understandably on the Ravens offense vs our defense. I'm actually more interested in the opposite matchup though. I worry a bit that the Ravens defense matches up well against us. They are the best run defense in the league in both YPG and YPC so we probably can't lean on Cook like we did yesterday. Their weakness appears to be passing outside the numbers but that's been our offense's weakness too... I think this game has to be the Amari Cooper game if there ever was one. If he's 1v1 outside he needs to get the ball. Get Coleman going on back shoulders too. We need to score 30+ and it will have to come through the air. Our first game we didn't have the horses to execute that way. This is where we find out if the addition of Cooper and the growth of Coleman are enough to flip the script.

Bernard, Milano and Johnson did not play as well

[asyranok]

7 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Ravens vs. Bills Odds See Massive Swing In Less Than 24 Hours (si.com)

 

 

lol. What drives betting lines again? The current numbers of bets coming in?

"That's all I needed to see. The Bills just finished crushing a great Broncos defense. I've changed my bet. They don't stand a chance against a slightly worse overall Raven's defense."

Edited Monday at 09:21 PM by asyranok

[BuffaloMatt]

17 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Why do I have this strange feeling that Von is going to remind us of how and why he got his nickname Sunday?

Vonny Football or Chinese Dragon? 

[sonyab1974]

On 1/12/2025 at 4:05 PM, Saint Doug said:

Can’t say I feel good about this game. Better have a plan for shutting Henry down early. 

The Bills beat the undefeated Chiefs. They can do this!!!!

[Process]

9 minutes ago, Rubes said:

 

Ravens vs. Bills Odds See Massive Swing In Less Than 24 Hours (si.com)

 

 

Massive swing?? -1.5 to +1.5 is about as insignificant of a swing as you can get. 

[Big Turk]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

Vonny Football or Chinese Dragon? 

 

"The Closer"

12 minutes ago, BuffaloMatt said:

Bernard, Milano and Johnson did not play as well

 

2 All-Pros and one of our best defensive players would make a huge impact I would think

[MasterStrategist]

3 minutes ago, Process said:

Massive swing?? -1.5 to +1.5 is about as insignificant of a swing as you can get. 

It's a huge swing for NFL standards, in the playoffs, that fast.  Barring a key injury.

 

Betting sharps are obviously high on Bmore, which doesn't mean how the game will play out, but it's significant in the betting world.

 

 

[Process]

Just now, MasterStrategist said:

It's a huge swing for NFL standards, in the playoffs, that fast.  Barring a key injury.

 

Betting sharps are obviously high on Bmore, which doesn't mean how the game will play out, but it's significant in the betting world.

 

 

The +1.5 is juiced at -120. Bills ML isn't even + money. 

 

The line has barely moved. There hasn't been a massive swing. 

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Most of the conversation is understandably on the Ravens offense vs our defense. I'm actually more interested in the opposite matchup though. I worry a bit that the Ravens defense matches up well against us. They are the best run defense in the league in both YPG and YPC so we probably can't lean on Cook like we did yesterday. Their weakness appears to be passing outside the numbers but that's been our offense's weakness too... I think this game has to be the Amari Cooper game if there ever was one. If he's 1v1 outside he needs to get the ball. Get Coleman going on back shoulders too. We need to score 30+ and it will have to come through the air. Our first game we didn't have the horses to execute that way. This is where we find out if the addition of Cooper and the growth of Coleman are enough to flip the script.

 

They can't play it safe on offense again.  Understand why they did against KC last year in Divisional Round and how that similar focus was an advantage vs. Denver.  

 

Agree they need another element of this offense beside the backs or Josh running and those passes in middle of field.  To be less predictable, and yeah, less safe.  

 

Not sure what weather conditions will be, but I don't expect them to win TOP battle in this one like they did in their previous 2 playoff games where that was clearly a focal point to reduce defense's exposure.  Must somewhat re-invent with Cooper here, which should be a slight advantage because Baltimore didn't game-plan last time for him.  

[syhuang]

 

 

[Big Turk]

Interesting note...

 

Bills have the 3rd best scoring defense at home in the NFL, allowing only 16.4 PPG.

 

3 minutes ago, syhuang said:

 

 

 

 

Interesting he didn't mention Cam Lewis...did he return to the game or something after that stop on 4th down he made?

7 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

They can't play it safe on offense again.  Understand why they did against KC last year in Divisional Round and how that similar focus was an advantage vs. Denver.  

 

Agree they need another element of this offense beside the backs or Josh running and those passes in middle of field.  To be less predictable, and yeah, less safe.  

 

Not sure what weather conditions will be, but I don't expect them to win TOP battle in this one like they did in their previous 2 playoff games where that was clearly a focal point to reduce defense's exposure.  Must somewhat re-invent with Cooper here, which should be a slight advantage because Baltimore didn't game-plan last time for him.  

 

They weren't playing it safe, they were controlling the game to force Denver out of it's 2 high shell and then broke the game open when they did.

[RiotAct]

2 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Interesting note...

 

Bills have the 3rd best scoring defense at home in the NFL, allowing only 16.4 PPG.

 

 

wonder how many of those are “garbage time” points… for instance all 14 of the Jets’ a few weeks ago.

[Casey D]

32 minutes ago, asyranok said:

lol. What drives betting lines again? The current numbers of bets coming in?

"That's all I needed to see. The Bills just finished crushing a great Broncos defense. I've changed my bet. They don't stand a chance against a slightly worse overall Raven's defense."

They move in an effort to balance out the total bets 50/50-- at least that is the goal of the bookmakers.  So, if the money coming in is 80/20 Ravens, they move the line to entice bets on the Bills to move the total bets closer to 50/50.  It really is like a supply and demand market response.

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Most of the conversation is understandably on the Ravens offense vs our defense. I'm actually more interested in the opposite matchup though. I worry a bit that the Ravens defense matches up well against us. They are the best run defense in the league in both YPG and YPC so we probably can't lean on Cook like we did yesterday. Their weakness appears to be passing outside the numbers but that's been our offense's weakness too... I think this game has to be the Amari Cooper game if there ever was one. If he's 1v1 outside he needs to get the ball. Get Coleman going on back shoulders too. We need to score 30+ and it will have to come through the air. Our first game we didn't have the horses to execute that way. This is where we find out if the addition of Cooper and the growth of Coleman are enough to flip the script.

 

Not worried much about the Ravens defense. 

Josh Allen is pretty much matchup proof.  Yes, he has bad games sometimes (just like everyone else).  But it's usually more about him having an "off-day" than anything the opposing defense is actually doing to him.  If he's locked-in on Sunday, the Ravens aren't going to stop us from scoring.

 

There is a legitimate reason everyone is worried about the other side...

First is history.  The Bills defense has historically struggled the deeper they get into the playoffs.  They have historically struggled to stop Derrick Henry.  And possibly their worst performance in the last 3 years was against the Ravens earlier this year.  Playing the matchup game, it's just a nightmare to try and load-up front to stop Henry...AND be prepared for Lamar Jackson to run...AND have decent coverage in the secondary.  That is for any defensive coordinator in the NFL.  Much less an undersized team that prefers to play light boxes and Nickel personnel.

 

My feeling is that we MUST throw some clever wrinkles at them early with our defensive looks, make stops in the redzone, and most importantly get a lead.  This is not a game for our trademark slow starts.  Our best hope against the Ravens is to make them one-dimensional, turn them into a passing team and make them rely on Jackson to make plays with his arm.  

 

[MasterStrategist]

31 minutes ago, Process said:

The +1.5 is juiced at -120. Bills ML isn't even + money. 

 

The line has barely moved. There hasn't been a massive swing. 

I mean keep telling yourself that, I don't even know why I'm debating this with you.

 

But if you want to say the line moved 2.5 points over night, that's still huge.

 

Regardless of moneyline, which is basically a toss up.  

 

Just saying a big chunk of money has been pouring in on Ravens early, which is usually sharps.

[Tulsabillsfanz]

32 minutes ago, Process said:

The +1.5 is juiced at -120. Bills ML isn't even + money. 

 

The line has barely moved. There hasn't been a massive swing. 

I hope the line stays where it is. I want us to be underdogs heading into the game. We need to play this game with a chip on our shoulder. 

[wjag]

 

You know what I would love to see?  Cook breaking through the LOS and running for a long TD on his first carry.