This is beautiful, but painful

[Richard Noggin]

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Exact opposite for me

 

Priority is getting more talent around Allen. As per usual. Whoever happens to be OC is incidental...it's destined to be a revolving door regardless

 

While having a defensive HC does doom us to OC turnover BEST CASE (success leads to turnover), I disagree that OC is less important than the TARGET talent around Allen. OL talent might even be more important YoY than elite target talent. Look at 2024 as the perfect example of this: the Bills have multi-year investments in all five starters, at least 3 or 4 of whom seem like long term priorities for the org (only Edwards and to a much lesser extent McGovern (at least as starting C--he could slide back to LG if VPG is legit) are possibly replaceable in the next year).

 

And the QB is THRIVING. Feels like the result of a combo of balanced and effective offensive design and the O-line's ability to execute in both the pass and run game at a high level, thereby allowing Allen to do his thing at an elite level. The talent and traits of the individual targets are not unimportant, but good coaching can allow a multitude of talented NFL prospects to grow and produce. (Obvs elite talent can possibly accomplish a lot irrespective of scheme and adjustments. But that's expensive against the cap and prone to injury and ego innit.)

 

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

The crap shoot nature of the draft, is actually the basis for the studies that say over time, a team does better to stockpile picks and take more shots at players, than they do to trade up for a player they perceive as a special talent (again, the exception being positions like QB where either you have a great one or you'll not sustain success)

 

I understood why the Bills traded for Diggs.  They had their hoped-for franchise QB going into his 3rd year, and they needed to make a decision THAT YEAR as to whether they were going to extend him or try again.  And he was up-and-down - some fantastic play, some bonehead moves.   Taking a shot at a talented rookie was the right cap strategy, but to be sure they had The Man at QB and avoid making a Daniel Jones type mistake, they had to give him a sure-fire top WR talent who would be good and able to run all the routes, THAT YEAR.

But I agree with you, Beane is not going to necessarily go after a top FA WR.  I just hope we don't get a hard lesson in the playoffs that Beane has cheaped it a bit much and we don't have enough.

 

That last paragraph is most compelling for me, in that I'm wondering how many Bills fans think Beane "cheaped it a bit much" while Diggs was on the roster (and especially while Brown and Beasley and/or Sanders were also here). I guess the question is: has Beane, ultimately, forever "cheaped it" on WR2? He's definitely never paid a Chase/Higgins or Hill/Waddle duo on the roster, but then again, have those duos won any SBs (even with elite and above avg QBs, respectively)? 

 

I think an increasing casual emphasis on statistics and/or a committed focus on fantasy football clouds judgement for many. Winning it all in the contemporary NFL is very rarely about stacked, elite roster construction at the offensive skill positions outside of QB. And it's definitely rarely about paying multiple elite veteran/2nd contract targets when you're also paying a QB. Which SB winning teams have had high paid guys at QB AND 2 WR spots, and maybe someone else (whether TE or RB)? Plus a good enough o-line to make it all work? And enough defense to get by? Usually at least one or two of those "premium positions" are filled by over-achieving or ascending players who aren't yet getting paid top dollar. 

 

KC doesn't qualify, do they? Mahomes and Kelce, and who else? MVS? Rice? Hopkins? Smith-Schuster? Hollywood Brown? Some intriguing names in that list, but nothing bona fide or contemporaneously elite or super expensive.

 

Is it as simple as just 1 or 2 missing day one or two draft picks at WR over the early Beane tenure that could have provided another valid man-beater opposite Diggs, and then taken over this season as a legit #1? Then imagine Cooper being brought in to be a secondary boundary target, pushing Shakir and Coleman into more selective roles against lesser DBs/LBs. I'm guessing that's the kind of WR pipeline most prefer. 

 

[london_bills]

On 1/8/2025 at 7:27 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Orlovsky had the mic drop I think…he said it’s pretty much statistically impossible to lead your team to that good of a season without a 1000 yrd receiver or rusher (cook ended up just making it) and they only had 1 pro bowler other than Josh while the ravens had 9 total and despite all that the bills beat the 1 seed in each conference.  
 

he said if it’s a stats only award just let a computer pick it…that’s not what it’s about 

Yeah just give it to Josh.

The ravens must be drafting a lot better then the Bills then. 

[Scott7975]

20 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Josh was named "Most Overrated" before the season, and then came out with a huge chip on his shoulder and carried the entire team for the whole season to an amazing year.

 

I'm almost hoping he gets snubbed just to stoke the fire right before the playoffs so he can use it to fuel a Super Bowl run.

 

The only MVP award that I want him chasing is Super Bowl MVP.

 

I dunno how many times this needs to be said but... the MVP award isnt announced until just before the Super Bowl. 

[DrDawkinstein]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You know he can do both, right? They aren't mutually exclusive. Josh isn't going to find an extra level by losing the MVP or lose his fire by winning it. His ultimate goal, as always, is to win a Super Bowl.

 

These Ultra Competitors use any and every bit of even a perceived disrespect to fuel their fire. Jordan did it, Brady did it, they all do it. He will absolutely find motivation in being snubbed. It's how their weird brains work.

 

3 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

I dunno how many times this needs to be said but... the MVP award isnt announced until just before the Super Bowl. 

 

Whenever. Then he'll use it to drop the hammer on whoever we play in the Super Bowl.

 

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

And the QB is THRIVING. Feels like the result of a combo of balanced and effective offensive design and the O-line's ability to execute in both the pass and run game at a high level, thereby allowing Allen to do his thing at an elite level. The talent and traits of the individual targets are not unimportant, but good coaching can allow a multitude of talented NFL prospects to grow and produce. (Obvs elite talent can possibly accomplish a lot irrespective of scheme and adjustments. But that's expensive against the cap and prone to injury and ego innit.)

 

I do think it's an oft underlooked point that if you want to get the most out of the QB - if you even want to be able to adequately evaluate whether you have a QB - the team really needs to invest in OL.  Pittsburgh drafting Pickett behind a rookie LT and next year a rookie RT had a bunch of people saying "they need a better OL to even figure out what they've got.  Pickett got gun-shy

 

Beane got away with that with Allen only because Allen is so mobile and such a tiger, and even then it took him a season to overcome his happy feet.  Well, That, and we did have a LT.

 

5 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

That last paragraph is most compelling for me, in that I'm wondering how many Bills fans think Beane "cheaped it a bit much" while Diggs was on the roster (and especially while Brown and Beasley and/or Sanders were also here). I guess the question is: has Beane, ultimately, forever "cheaped it" on WR2? He's definitely never paid a Chase/Higgins or Hill/Waddle duo on the roster, but then again, have those duos won any SBs (even with elite and above avg QBs, respectively)? 

 

I think an increasing casual emphasis on statistics and/or a committed focus on fantasy football clouds judgement for many. Winning it all in the contemporary NFL is very rarely about stacked, elite roster construction at the offensive skill positions outside of QB. And it's definitely rarely about paying multiple elite veteran/2nd contract targets when you're also paying a QB. Which SB winning teams have had high paid guys at QB AND 2 WR spots, and maybe someone else (whether TE or RB)? Plus a good enough o-line to make it all work? And enough defense to get by? Usually at least one or two of those "premium positions" are filled by over-achieving or ascending players who aren't yet getting paid top dollar. 

 

I was thinking of "cheaping it" more as a totality of investment, not strictly cap dollars.  To your point, Cincy has not yet paid a Chase/Higgins duo - but they did invest high first round and high 2nd round picks in them.  Miami has not paid a Hill/Waddle duo, but they did invest a high first in Waddle and of course a high $ contract in Hill.

As far as duos winning Superbowls, KC paid Hill in 2019.  So they were paying Hill and Kelce when they won the 2019 Superbowl, went to the SB next year, and won the conference in '21.  And then of course, they were able to recoup that investment by trading him for a 1st, 2nd, 4th and next years 4th and 6th.  Yes they weren't paying Mahomes yet.

 

Now it gets more interesting as far as 2022 and 2023.  In 2022, KC was paying 3 WR in their top 10 cap %: Kelce, MVS, and Mecole Hardman, and a 4th just outside of it (Juju S-S at 11).  Now, we look at that, and say "poor ROI!" but the point is, they made the investment.  And Kelce, S-S, and MVS were their top 3 receivers.  Then the next season, they invested a 2nd round pick in Rice while they still had MVS on the roster, and he pretty much filled the S-S role by the end of the season.

 

Let's not roll with the narrative that KC hasn't invested in WR.  They have - not the investment (again, speaking of both draft and FA $$) that Mia or Bengals have made, but significant.  And of course, the Bengals made it to a Superbowl.  

Just to close things off - in 2021 when the Rams won the Superbowl with Stafford, they had 2 receivers in their top 10 cap % - Tyler Higbee and Cooper Kupp.  And, they'd invested a 2nd round pick in Van Jefferson.

The closest the Bills have come to that kind of investment is 2021, when they were paying Diggs and Manny Sands.  (He wasn't taking up as much $ of their cap, but only because they added void years to his contract)

Now, to your point - the investment KC and the Rams have made at receiver, were not in paying multiple top dollar super-elite receivers.  Both KC and the Rams are paying a TE, and while they're great players - it has to be noted that elite TE get paid less than elite WR on the open market.  That might be one reason why Beane is looking to Knox and Kincaid as a key part of the build he's trying?  

 

Back to my point, I think it can be justified that Beane has under-invested in the WR position ("cheaped it") especially when looked at as investment of either $$ or draft capital.

 

5 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Is it as simple as just 1 or 2 missing day one or two draft picks at WR over the early Beane tenure that could have provided another valid man-beater opposite Diggs, and then taken over this season as a legit #1? Then imagine Cooper being brought in to be a secondary boundary target, pushing Shakir and Coleman into more selective roles against lesser DBs/LBs. I'm guessing that's the kind of WR pipeline most prefer. 

 

Yes, I think it could be as simple as missing 1 or 2 day 1 or 2 draft picks at WR.  Now some of that can be the way the draft falls.  But I can't help looking at Carolina's build while Beane was there, and thinking that's the model he's trying to follow, where he expects his big, mobile QB to elevate his receivers and make magic happen, and doesn't see the need to invest a bit more there.

[tigerthelion]

19 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Agreed we need more homeruns from the draft instead of singles and doubles, but question on the TE point:

 

Do you believe, if you switch the players and teams, LaPorta would have the same stats/impact on the Bills, and Kincaid would not be putting up numbers in Detroit? In other words, is there really a big difference in player talent between the two, or is it more the specific team and how they use the player?

Good point.  Maybe, maybe not.  Either way, isn't it a misallocation of resources if Kincaid isn't producing like most fans had hoped?  If he isn't going to put up better numbers, being drafted where he was, is that good for the team?  Could they have found a better first round pick that would have been a real difference maker?   Perhaps the drafting needs to improve or maybe the coaching philosophy could improve for some of the picks to have more of a meaningful impact on the game.  For Kincaid's production, could you not get that in the third or fourth round?  

[DrDawkinstein]

15 minutes ago, tigerthelion said:

Good point.  Maybe, maybe not.  Either way, isn't it a misallocation of resources if Kincaid isn't producing like most fans had hoped?  If he isn't going to put up better numbers, being drafted where he was, is that good for the team?  Could they have found a better first round pick that would have been a real difference maker?   Perhaps the drafting needs to improve or maybe the coaching philosophy could improve for some of the picks to have more of a meaningful impact on the game.  For Kincaid's production, could you not get that in the third or fourth round?  

 

Is our Offense under-performing to the point we need to worry about individual stats? Or under-performing to a point we need to worry about drafting and scheme on that side of the ball?

 

I like having the weapons, and using them when and where needed, and if not then that is fine as long as we're winning.

 

[tigerthelion]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Is our Offense under-performing to the point we need to worry about individual stats? Or under-performing to a point we need to worry about drafting and scheme on that side of the ball?

 

I like having the weapons, and using them when and where needed, and if not then that is fine as long as we're winning.

 

Taking some pressure off of Allen would be ideal.  He may even take  his game to another notch if he had some more easy throws during games, with his maturity.  When his receivers can't get open, it can get ugly (Ravens, Texans, Pats).   Hopefully the offense hums in the postseason without Allen running for his life and playing Superman all game. If Josh player superhero and we win, great, but long term that isn't the best strategy.  Hollins has been great for what they signed him for, but seeing him on deep routes is not ideal.  With the way the defense usually plays in the playoffs, Josh is kept on the sidelines for long stretches of the game, which puts even more pressure on him and the offense to score every drive.  

 

I guess my point about Kincaid, and about the "everyone eats" mentality, is that if guys like him are going to not be big factors in the offense, why not just draft a tight end in the fourth round?  Maybe higher draft picks should be allocated to picks that may be utilized more and stand out more on the field. 

[rajinka]

On 1/8/2025 at 2:27 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Orlovsky had the mic drop I think…he said it’s pretty much statistically impossible to lead your team to that good of a season without a 1000 yrd receiver or rusher (cook ended up just making it) and they only had 1 pro bowler other than Josh while the ravens had 9 total and despite all that the bills beat the 1 seed in each conference.  
 

he said if it’s a stats only award just let a computer pick it…that’s not what it’s about 

Lamar also played almost 2 games worth of snaps more then josh

[Simon]

52 minutes ago, tigerthelion said:

Good point.  Maybe, maybe not.  Either way, isn't it a misallocation of resources if Kincaid isn't producing like most fans had hoped?  If he isn't going to put up better numbers, being drafted where he was, is that good for the team?  Could they have found a better first round pick that would have been a real difference maker?   Perhaps the drafting needs to improve or maybe the coaching philosophy could improve for some of the picks to have more of a meaningful impact on the game.  For Kincaid's production, could you not get that in the third or fourth round?  

 

I think you might be giving Kincaid short shrift.

Before the Bills brought Amari Cooper on board, Kincaid was the guy that opposing DCoordinators were paying attention to and prioritizing attention toward. Unlike LaPorta in Detroit the Bills don't have a Jameson Williams and St Ra Brown duo driving safeties 50 yrds off the ball on most downs. 

I think it's important to remember sometimes that "production" is just as much math as it is football. If you look at it from a purely football perspective, Kincaid is affecting defenses much, much more than a 3rd/4th rnd would.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 1/8/2025 at 2:04 AM, Beck Water said:

Emmanuel Acho's answer to why Josh Allen should be MVP.  It's a 15 yard completion on 2nd and 6

He then breaks down the tape, in which we see Knox slipping, Hollins being doubled and failing to uncover, Kincaid being slow to release, and Coleman not just being jammed but FLATTENED at the LOS.

 

It's painful to watch.  

 

And oh, yeah, Allen just casually evades a few rushers and buys some time until someone gets up and gets open (it's Ty Johnson).

 

 

It’s funny that Ravens fans and Bills haters are using the fact that Lamar has better stats as an argument, but fail to acknowledge Josh had like 15 more TDs than Lamar did last year and used his better record/efficiency as an excuse for why he deserved the MVP. Now Allen has the better record this year, but that conveniently doesn’t matter.  They are using the same argument Bills fans were using last year. 

Edited 7 hours ago by ChronicAndKnuckles

[tigerthelion]

21 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I think you might be giving Kincaid short shrift.

Before the Bills brought Amari Cooper on board, Kincaid was the guy that opposing DCoordinators were paying attention to and prioritizing attention toward. Unlike LaPorta in Detroit the Bills don't have a Jameson Williams and St Ra Brown duo driving safeties 50 yrds off the ball on most downs. 

I think it's important to remember sometimes that "production" is just as much math as it is football. If you look at it from a purely football perspective, Kincaid is affecting defenses much, much more than a 3rd/4th rnd would.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on Kincaid.  I have been underwhelmed with his career so far, to be honest.  Having said that, I understand your point and you could be right.  I am not there yet, though.   

[MDH]

21 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

Adding Elite/difference makers to the roster is one thing that is significantly lacking. The Bills have a solid team, but outside of Josh, no one that can takeover a game. 
 

LaPorta (3rd)has been more impactful than Kincaid (1st) who we traded up for. 

 

Coleman has been average but he’s not going to be WR1.

 

Shakir has been a solid slot WR.

 

Defensively, no one on the DL is a game wrecker.

 

LB, Milano and Bernard are solid but injuries have set them back.

 

Secondary, Benford who is our 6th round pick has been by far the best secondary player. Bishop for a 2nd round pick looks okay. Hamlin is meh and good depth. And our 1st round CB, Elam, struggles to see the field and most likely won’t be on the roster going forward. 
 

Unfortunately, Oliver, Rousseau, Kincaid, Elam and Coleman haven’t been the impactful players we’ve needed. 
 

 

LaPorta was the 2nd TE taken in that draft, at the top of the 2nd round, with pick 34. 
 

Also, Groot is a difference maker. No, he’s not a tier 1 edge but he’s in the 2nd tier. Judging by how he is discussed on this board, Bills’ fans are going to be upset this offseason when he gets paid like it. Get him anyone else who can get pressure on a semi-consistent basis and the DL would start getting to the QB more regularly. When you’re the only guy, it makes it easy for the O.

[Simon]

8 minutes ago, MDH said:

Also, Groot is a difference maker. No, he’s not a tier 1 edge but he’s in the 2nd tier. Judging by how he is discussed on this board, Bills’ fans are going to be upset this offseason when he gets paid like it. Get him anyone else who can get pressure on a semi-consistent basis and the DL would start getting to the QB more regularly. When you’re the only guy, it makes it easy for the O.

 

I'm guessing that McDermotts obsessive insistence with having him attack the run first is also a legitimate factor in him only looking like a Tier 2 guy.

When the Bills occasionally get people in 3rd/long, he looks like a very different pass rusher, imo.

13 minutes ago, tigerthelion said:

Maybe I'm being too harsh on Kincaid.  I have been underwhelmed with his career so far, to be honest.  Having said that, I understand your point and you could be right.  I am not there yet, though.   

 

That's fair enough and I do get it.

I'd like to see him be more of a reliable chain mover that can break the occasional big one, but it's hard to stand out when you're role is to be another cog in the machine.

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, Simon said:

I'd like to see him be more of a reliable chain mover that can break the occasional big one, but it's hard to stand out when you're role is to be another cog in the machine.

 

I've been somewhat unimpressed with his understanding of leverage and making himself available to his QB. Which is a shame because I actually loved him as a draft prospect specifically because he appeared to have the right cerebral traits. Kelce is possibly the GOAT not just because of his physical traits but because he can read defenses as well as an elite QB. I've seen too many plays this year where Allen is expecting Kincaid to be somewhere or adjust his route and it just doesn't happen. And I'd guess that's why his role has mainly been limited to quick passes where he doesn't have to think and can just use his natural athleticism to create YAC. I could see him breaking out next year if the game has slowed down for him.

[Alphadawg7]

On 1/8/2025 at 5:24 AM, MJS said:

It shouldn't be painful. It is just one play. There are plenty of plays from that game where the skill position players did really good things.

 

This.  I am not sure why so many people want to project this play as if this happened most of the time.  Allen has been excellent this year, but it's been made possible because of a couple of key factors too...

 

First and foremost, the coaches got everyone top to bottom to 100% buy in to what they were doing this year, and that INCLUDES Josh Allen.  The skill players bought into the everybody eats formula, and Josh bought into taking what is there more than ever in his career.  This was the biggest and most important factor to not only Allens increase in efficiency, but to the team's overall success. 

 

Second, guys just did their jobs, no matter what the assignment, the 10 guys around Allen were either making plays or impacting plays on a more consistent basis than we have ever seen before in the Allen era.  

 

To be clear, this video clip is absolutely a good one to highlight just how good Allen is and why he is in the MVP.  But it is NOT a good video to make judgements on what the cast around him did for Allen and this team this season.  Its one play, guys were running wide open on plenty of other plays, even ones where Allen made mistakes, didn't see them, or flat out missed them.  

 

So use this play to showcase just how special Allen is in how he can make something positive, even big, on even plays where everything broke down...but to fly this as some kind of flag about how everyone sucks around him is wrong because that is just not the reality of what these guys and these coaches did week in and week out to help this team and Allen exceed most peoples projections and expectations this season.  

 

Make no mistake about it...WR will continue to be addressed this season, it ALWAYS was going to be.  Some people seem to think the plan was just add Keon and Beane was done.  Never at any moment in time was Keon the final piece to the room, he was part of the beginning of rebuilding Allens weapons in a season we got rid of everyone but Shakir and took on $31M in dead cap hit in the WR room alone.  

 

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Alphadawg7

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I'm guessing that McDermotts obsessive insistence with having him attack the run first is also a legitimate factor in him only looking like a Tier 2 guy.

When the Bills occasionally get people in 3rd/long, he looks like a very different pass rusher, imo.

 

That's fair enough and I do get it.

I'd like to see him be more of a reliable chain mover that can break the occasional big one, but it's hard to stand out when you're role is to be another cog in the machine.

 

I'd like to see Kincaid taking a big step towards being able to release quickly off the LOS especially against press man.

 

It's one reason he doesn't get the targets he would otherwise.