One Thing: Keon looked terrible yesterday

[YattaOkasan]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

 

Do either of you understand how poor a catch rate of 57.4% is in the NFL? Also I didn’t see either of you going back to check and see who else threw some balls to Gabe Davis and what that would do to his numbers.

 

Also I don’t see anyone controlling for QB play. Coleman has Josh freaking Allen throwing him the ball. When judging catch percentage against the league, do you really think that is any a huge help vs what most QBs out there are doing for their receivers?

 

Saying that Coleman is young and has time to improve is one thing. Pretending that his performance this season has been good - or even passable - for an NFL WR or 1st round pick pick is something else. 

Yeah it’s not great. And didn’t do it for Gabe.  I got more caught up in this idea that Keons catch % was worse than any year of Gabe’s. I don’t think the last game should be included in that analysis.
 

I’ll say it again. Coleman has been pretty comparable to Gabe but has more upside. His drops have to be fixed and he needs to get more separation. I think there’s good reason to believe he can fix those things and mostly boils down to him having fewer reps at WR compared to others.  But we still have to see it. I also think his upside is very high though as demonstrated by some of his flash plays. 
 

basically too much is being made of this one game that doesn’t seem representative of anything. 

Edited 22 hours ago by YattaOkasan

[3rdand12]

55 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

And that is 100% fair. As someone that supported the Coleman pick even before we made it I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and pretend his rookie season was anything more than what it was. He needs to progress or else he'll never be more than a complementary piece, kind of like what Mack Hollins was for us this year, and that result isn't worth a high 2nd round pick.

 

The frustrating thing for me is the line appeared to be trending way up in the Tennessee-Seattle games. I thought he had figured it out and was about to become a centerpiece of the offense. Instead he had a bad game against Miami, then got injured, and when he came back from injury he was back to his pre-Tennessee form and plateaued from there. So that's my one lingering disappointment, that he didn't end the season notably better than he started. Pending his performance in the playoffs, of course.

His ups and downs usually point to to some injury. But in his case perhaps he hit the rookie wall ? I am sure he was being asked to learn a lot and pushed physically on and off the field.

 I sure don't know. But your points are salient. Did not find his groove yet with Allen/Brady ?

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Correct

 

And you really have to question people who dispute this tbh. To my eye this has pretty clearly been one of the most Allen centric seasons ever

He has found his way !

 It's a joy to watch. The chemical chain reaction that includes and executes Brady and Kromer's vision , and then executing it. I am sure the room is bigger than I describe

 Allen looks so at home back there this year !

Being an eternal optimist ( mostly)lol) I feel the playoffs is where this offense might shine and surprise.

 Some big designed plays for ball catchers and carriers alike

Coleman could and should be a part of that. early vs Broncos.

 Go Bills

 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Yeah it’s not great. And didn’t do it for Gabe.  I got more caught up in this idea that Keons catch % was worse than any year of Gabe’s. I don’t think the last game should be included in that analysis.
 

I’ll say it again. Coleman has been pretty comparable to Gabe but has more upside. His drops have to be fixed and he needs to get more separation. I think there’s good reason to believe he can fix those things and mostly boils down to him having fewer reps at WR compared to others.  But we still have to see it. I also think his upside is very high though as demonstrated by some of his flash plays. 
 

basically too much is being made of this one game that doesn’t seem representative of anything. 

imo Coleman is a significantly better prospect than Davis who I maintain was and is a marginal NFL talent at best

 

Coleman can play in the NFL. He has great body control, size, and I don't think his hands are nearly as bad as Davis' although he does need to clean up some of the drops. However- he's not really an NFL wideout yet. He doesn't understand leverage in his routes or how to present to QB, he struggles translating his athleticism to effective routes, he doesn't have a pro-level release off the line, and for all his physical tools he allows DBs to dictate too easily (this all shows up on film)

 

 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

As far as what I've written, I think we've lost the plot; I wasn't trying to "deny the superiority of his peers".  If that's how you interpreted what I wrote, I apologize for not writing with greater clarity.  If I have to say it explicitly, Thomas (and other WR drafted in the 1st) have been better WR than Coleman to date.
 

I was responding to a guy who was all "stupid Bills should have drafted Thomas".  My point to him was, Thomas was not practically available to the Bills without the use of draft capital they lacked going into the draft (2024 3rd round traded for Douglas in 2023).  

 

(to you) I was not trying to say Coleman is better than Thomas.  Thomas obviously had a good rookie year.   I'm not really down to argue whether Nabors with 109 receptions or Brock Bowers with 112 receptions were better.  I wouldn't even argue if you want to say Thomas had a great rookie year because definitions, semantics.

 

Good on you for recognizing talent pre-draft.

First @Beck Water let me apologize for yesterday's response.  I appreciate all you bring to this board.  I think we both 100% agree the wr draft was definitely underaddressed and underresourced.  And I guess I saw a long term WR1 (BTJ) going  to Josh for years.  Also I realized how important this last draft was based on the depth of the wrs available. 

 

Our disagreement stems from trading up 120 pts.  Yes we gained draft capital on the trade downs. Yes we didn't have alot to begin with.  But I still think it was possible if Beane was motivated enough to give the Jags our 2nd pick (Bishop) and in return we get their 3rd & 6th round picks.  And Thomas didn't have a good year, he had a great year as a rookie on a team that struggled.  I don't pretend to know as much about stats/ analytics as most on here. But my gut told me that this big, strong, fast wr was worth the effort.  And if Bishop & Coleman don't pan out (and God willing they do), this will go down as an opportunity lost.

[ColoradoBills]

16 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Yeah it’s not great. And didn’t do it for Gabe.  I got more caught up in this idea that Keons catch % was worse than any year of Gabe’s. I don’t think the last game should be included in that analysis.
 

I’ll say it again. Coleman has been pretty comparable to Gabe but has more upside. His drops have to be fixed and he needs to get more separation. I think there’s good reason to believe he can fix those things and mostly boils down to him having fewer reps at WR compared to others.  But we still have to see it. I also think his upside is very high though as demonstrated by some of his flash plays. 
 

basically too much is being made of this one game that doesn’t seem representative of anything. 

 

I can see how fans would like to compare Coleman to Davis.  As of now, statistics could give credence to that.

The thing is I'm interested in how Coleman plays Sunday (and hopefully further in the playoffs).

 

With the exception of his first season with the Bills, Diggs was a detriment to the offense the last 3 playoffs.

Culminating to a 4.3 Yds/Tgt and 0 TDs last year.  

 

It's about the playoffs with this team.  Everyone knows it.  It's not about a meaningless game's statistics, like you said.

I am hoping Coleman becomes Mr. January and takes us into February.

[starrymessenger]

Coleman is a raw as red meat rookie who has a lot to learn about route running, hand usage, getting off the line, and catching the friggen football etc,,,and though a physical specimen he should benefit from the offseason NFL conditioning program he will certainly be following. He's just a kid and one can reasonably expect him to evolve into an even stronger, more physical player when he becomes a man. He also needs to become a professional football player and that happens above the shoulders, not below.

As for receiver type he is obviously not an X who can live on the boundary. He's not Brian Thomas to be sure, and that type or reasonable facsimile absolutely remains a need to complete the Bills receiver room long term. They are not all first rounders either. I think Marvin Mims can be that kind of player even though he is not big and tall and he went in the second if memory serves. Ladd is that kind of guy.
One can easily see Coleman lining up in the slot a lot running slants and drag routes over the middle of the field. But I think he has shown that he can be more than a possession receiver who can block and I can see them moving him around a lot lined up as a flanker and even on the outside as well. Wouldn't seem unnatural to see him lined up outside in or around the red zone (but not just there). Setting up outside does not necessarily mean that the subject player is just running go routes. So if he's a slot then like Fitzgerald under Arians or Anquan Boldin he is a slot with big play potential and capabilities imo. One perhaps forgets that though "slow" Boldin took significant snaps outside early in his career and was very effective doing so though again not in any way like a true X receiver type.

Coleman was bad against the Pats but if Denver continues to opt for majority man coverage (with a little cover 1 mixed in) I like his chances of playing a meaningful role in the upcoming game. If Josh Allen, the most mobile of QBs (along with Lamar) is able to buy time outside the pocket Coleman could stand out as an attractive target. 
He has a decent chance to develop into an impactful receiver imo. Nothing is guaranteed though of course.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I mean any offense is better when it spreads the ball around and doesn't rely on one guy, everybody agrees with that. That doesn't take away from how middling our pass catchers have been though. Re-posting from the MVP thread:

 

Allen is making this group much much MUCH more than the other way around. It is a perfectly mediocre group of weapons led by an all-time great QB and a very good OL.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Beane has to go into the offseason knowing he needs to add significantly to the WR room. I’m not locking Coleman into a starting role. I have Shakir as the only lock. I need to add multiple WRs if I’m Beane.

 

Basically the same position as last offseason.

 

 

 

[White Linen]

5 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I hope you are right.  He seemed to be coming on until Poyer blew him up against Miami.  Did that intimidate Coleman?  If yes, can he recover?  I didn’t like the pick, but was pleasantly surprised up until he got hurt, but he has done next to nothing since returning.  He IS good on the “Allen run around until the defense loses track of receiver plays”.

 

I highly doubt that hit had any effect on him.  You do know Coleman is a massive human being, right?  He's almost too big in his leg muscles.  I could see him getting leaner in the office season and it helping him with his fluidity and athleticism.  

 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

imo Coleman is a significantly better prospect than Davis who I maintain was and is a marginal NFL talent at best

 

Coleman can play in the NFL. He has great body control, size, and I don't think his hands are nearly as bad as Davis' although he does need to clean up some of the drops. However- he's not really an NFL wideout yet. He doesn't understand leverage in his routes or how to present to QB, he struggles translating his athleticism to effective routes, he doesn't have a pro-level release off the line, and for all his physical tools he allows DBs to dictate too easily (this all shows up on film)

 

 

 

No argument 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, White Linen said:

 

I highly doubt that hit had any effect on him.  You do know Coleman is a massive human being, right?  He's almost too big in his leg muscles.  I could see him getting leaner in the office season and it helping him with his fluidity and athleticism.  

 

 

I'm not worried about mental impact.  Guy plays football and basketball, he can get hit.

 

Given how long Keon was out, the hit may have physically damaged his arm and impacted his ability to catch the ball and hang on to it.

Someone here have said they had a source that his arm was broken - although the next week, he was seen doing footwork on the sideline without wearing a brace or splint, not sure how common that is for a break? but damage to the ulnar nerve or to ligaments are also possible, and would potentially affect his ability to catch and grip the ball.

 

Keon said something at one point that implied he was held out a couple weeks due to problems catching.

Edited 15 hours ago by Beck Water

[billsfan89]

I do wonder if knowing the game was "meaningless" could have effected his play? Also, I think he could still be working off some rust. I'm not uber concerned about it. 

[Beck Water]

7 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

First @Beck Water let me apologize for yesterday's response.  I appreciate all you bring to this board.  I think we both 100% agree the wr draft was definitely underaddressed and underresourced.  And I guess I saw a long term WR1 (BTJ) going  to Josh for years.  Also I realized how important this last draft was based on the depth of the wrs available. 

 

Our disagreement stems from trading up 120 pts.  Yes we gained draft capital on the trade downs. Yes we didn't have alot to begin with.  But I still think it was possible if Beane was motivated enough to give the Jags our 2nd pick (Bishop) and in return we get their 3rd & 6th round picks.  And Thomas didn't have a good year, he had a great year as a rookie on a team that struggled.  I don't pretend to know as much about stats/ analytics as most on here. But my gut told me that this big, strong, fast wr was worth the effort.  And if Bishop & Coleman don't pan out (and God willing they do), this will go down as an opportunity lost.

 

First off Mad Props to you for your apology and I appreciate that. 

I think we have a lot of points of agreement, actually.

 

I understand you feeling that Thomas was a special talent and worthy of giving up our 2nd round pick and getting back change.  And the early returns are, he's a quality NFL player.  It actually looks as though a player drafted after Coleman, Ladd McConkey, is also a quality NFL player and could have been had without a trade-up.  What it really comes down to is, for whatever reason, Beane and his scouts were higher on Coleman's potential (he is not a fully developed WR at this point) than they were on either of those guys.

 

You could be right that it's an opportunity lost. 

On the other hand, Beane has to assemble a roster of 53 players.  There have been a number of studies done that conclude, because there is so much uncertainty in the NFL draft, in general it is better to stand put or trade down and have more picks than it is to trade up - the exception being "franchise positions" such as QB where you either have a great one or your team is stuck in neutral.  One could make a case that by trading up two slots in two preceding drafts at the cost of a 4th round pick each time, Beane put himself in a spot where he needed to over value that 2nd round pick.  For example, there are 2 CBs drafted in the 2nd round (Roger McCreary TEN and Cam Taylor Britt CIN) who seem to be good players (I don't know anything about McCreary), while Kaiir Elam whom we traded up for, can't even see the field.  In Round 4, 2 spots after Pick 130 which is what we traded Bal to move up, GB drafted Romeo Dobbs who has been a solid WR for them; there were also some OLmen who have good wAV drafted in that area.

So yeah, trading up can mean an opportunity lost too.

[Herc11]

It was basically a pre-season game, no game planning, vanilla offense.

 

Get a grip people

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Beane has to go into the offseason knowing he needs to add significantly to the WR room. I’m not locking Coleman into a starting role. I have Shakir as the only lock. I need to add multiple WRs if I’m Beane.

 

Basically the same position as last offseason.

 

 

 

Well, it's not like there was a historically talented WR draft recently. What else could he have done?

[GunnerBill]

49 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Well, it's not like there was a historically talented WR draft recently. What else could he have done?

 

And this receiver draft is setting up to be the thinnest in a little while. 

[BobbyC81]

On 1/6/2025 at 5:25 AM, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

To think that the chargers got McConkey one pick after Coleman is very infuriating.

And how about Tampa getting Jalen McMillan in the 3rd?.  He’s come on after Godwin got injured.

[BananaB]

Keon hasn’t had a good season. Suppose to have great hands but he dropped a lot of balls this season.  Thought our O looked the best when he was out and the team utilized Samuel a little more. Jmo

Edited 8 hours ago by BananaB

[corta765]

On 1/6/2025 at 5:17 PM, TheBrownBear said:

Yes, but Josh made Gabe Davis a "#2 WR", but we saw what he really was in Jax before his injury.  And Keon has worse efficiency numbers than Davis did with Josh. 

 

Coleman is light years away from reaching #1 WR status.  Just watch that Steve Smith breakdown up-thread.

I won't make major judgements for another year or two. Players change good or bad all the time. He has been a C+/B- to me year 1 and where we go from here depends on the work he does and growth he is willing to try and make OR not.