One Thing: Keon looked terrible yesterday

[Beck Water]

21 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Look id be lying if I said I wasn't trying to shine on the fact that I called Brian Thomas Jr as the best prospect predraft 

 

Still I think we can have an honest e v a l of Coleman w out denying the superiority of his peers

 

As far as what I've written, I think we've lost the plot; I wasn't trying to "deny the superiority of his peers".  If that's how you interpreted what I wrote, I apologize for not writing with greater clarity.  If I have to say it explicitly, Thomas (and other WR drafted in the 1st) have been better WR than Coleman to date.
 

I was responding to a guy who was all "stupid Bills should have drafted Thomas".  My point to him was, Thomas was not practically available to the Bills without the use of draft capital they lacked going into the draft (2024 3rd round traded for Douglas in 2023).  

 

(to you) I was not trying to say Coleman is better than Thomas.  Thomas obviously had a good rookie year.   I'm not really down to argue whether Nabors with 109 receptions or Brock Bowers with 112 receptions were better.  I wouldn't even argue if you want to say Thomas had a great rookie year because definitions, semantics.

 

Good on you for recognizing talent pre-draft.

[Kirby Jackson]

19 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

This catch percent comparison boils down to if we trust the last game.  I dont. So i threw away the last game which improves his catch %.

 

Keon has too many drops this year.  As gunner has said thats coachable.  He doesnt get enough separation.  Again thats coachable.  He has not shown much more than Gabe did statistically, but his flashes have been greater (high pointing and broken tackles).  However, I think he has much more room for improvement than Gabe because hes a better athlete and has less experience at the position.  

No, I do not take that game into my evaluation of Samuel.  I said I take nothing from that game.  Others might but Im not thinking Samuel is gonna get 8 targets or match that type of production.  So you have included Samuel's last game into your evaluation?  You think that game means hes better living up to his contract?

 

If you have outlier you are excluding, then you need to state your reason for exclusion.  I did.  You disagree.  I aint being selective as that was a game that should not be in the data set and im not including it.

 

Do we think KC's defense got so bad just now? no.  The data says theres special cause affecting that last data point and its not representative.  Best to exclude it from the data set.  

So because we didn’t like the data from the other day we will exclude it? Lol, that’s trying to fit a narrative. There’s no other reason. He had the ball thrown to him 10 times and caught 2. I’m confident that if he caught 10 of 10 we wouldn’t be removing that from our data set. 

 

If it makes you feel better to only look at the data that you like, go for it. Handle it however you see fit. When I evaluate things, I’m going to continue to look at all available information and not just things that I want. To each their own…

[ColoradoBills]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

I will simply say this:  I do not understand the compulsion some Bills fans have to pick out a player and rag on them.  Recently it was Spencer Brown, and he's turned out to be pretty damn good.  Coleman is a rookie WR.  He has things to learn, but even so he has made some really good plays this year.  But we now have a 14-page thread devoted to ragging on this guy just because of a few routes in a meaningless game where passes were thrown by backups.  Why? Why is there this compulsion to pick out a guy to criticize?  I've seen it since the days of the Kemp/Lamonica debates.  Let the kid play, let him develop.  My guess is he'll make a big play of two on Sunday.  But we'll see.

 

I don't know Zierlein or his background.  some of what he says seems accurate for Coleman, but he's a rookie.  Also, we have guys here claiming a guy like Eric Wood is wrong with his take on Sunday;  I simply tend to favor the interpretation of guys that have actually played at the pro level. 

 

Why? you ask omf?, it's the way of the world.  Let's not stop on Spencer Brown.  EVERY player on this team goes through this "process".

It's not about anything to do with "reality".  It's the "human nature" of many that subjects these players to these critiques.  Fans today are

bombarded with film clips, stats comparing every conceivable angle, and a myriad of opinions (many to just get attention) that all this

is just "normal" today.  I really don't like or understand why so many have a need to instantly predict the outcomes of everything. 

 

WE grew up in a world of football that was 2 games on Sunday.  No sport channels, no YouTube, no "statistical" measurement (except basic numbers),

no 25+ cameras filming every play, etc., etc., etc.  The most awesome thing that we had in the '70s was "Football Digest" which got delivered on Thursdays.

I would give my buddy Mark $.25 to read it after he was done!  You wanted to see other teams highlights you got a couple of plays on "Alcoa" highlights.

When HBO "Inside the NFL" came out we were "mesmerized".  Opinions that generated "arguments" were started by a couple of newspaper men.

 

Fans in the past just had the game to watch.  Nowadays, fans are drawn into being a totally immersed 24/7 participants.

It's truly a great thing and I love it BUT, it opens the door for everyone to be a critic of every little thing. For those (and there are many) who have

a much deeper "knowledge" of the game than some of us, need to understand one thing.  There are 32 teams full of people who know way

more than you and they are WRONG a lot of times.  That equates to you guys not always being right too!  Although what I just typed is

irrefutable, many think they are ALWAYS right on this board.  I've had to learn to live with that.

 

Bottom line, Keon Coleman is a ROOKIE drafted by the Buffalo Bills.  He cannot be redrafted for some other's preferred player.  Not one

fan can say exactly what kind of receiver he will ultimately end up being for Josh Allen and this team.  That's the facts, but many won't

settle for just that.  They have to become their own opinion generators.

 

At the start of this season, I was all excited about the roll Ty Johnson COULD play and why I thought that.

I was shot down by the majority of knowledgeable fans on this board who gave me an abundance of facts why I was wrong.

Just because I was right and they were wrong about this "prediction", does not make me more knowledgeable about football than them.

Simply that I was right, and they were wrong.  The thing is that goes against "human nature".

 

I'm not preaching to anyone oldmanfan.  Just talking out loud to myself.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Simon]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So because we didn’t like the data from the other day we will exclude it? Lol, that’s trying to fit a narrative. There’s no other reason. He had the ball thrown to him 10 times and caught 2. I’m confident that if he caught 10 of 10 we wouldn’t be removing that from our data set. 

 

Equally weighting WR numbers from what was clearly a "protect yourself" game does not strike me as any better of a solution than ignoring them.

[YattaOkasan]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So because we didn’t like the data from the other day we will exclude it? Lol, that’s trying to fit a narrative. There’s no other reason. He had the ball thrown to him 10 times and caught 2. I’m confident that if he caught 10 of 10 we wouldn’t be removing that from our data set. 

 

If it makes you feel better to only look at the data that you like, go for it. Handle it however you see fit. When I evaluate things, I’m going to continue to look at all available information and not just things that I want. To each their own…

Literally did not say "I didn't like" it.  I am saying that the game is not representative of a pro football game because winning wasnt the highest priority to the Bills.  I never said I dont "like" the data.  I dont think you can predict from it or compare to it.  Using that game is throwing an orange into an apple crate and then talking about overall acidity level of that crate compared to another and saying they're inferior apples.  I'm running out of analogies to explain data exclusion.  

Edited 21 hours ago by YattaOkasan

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

Brady said his philosophy was to let everyone eat, That is happening, and may account for Allen having an MVP season.

 

You have the relationship backwards - Allen having an MVP season allowed the philosophy of "everyone eats" to function. 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

You have the relationship backwards - Allen having an MVP season allowed the philosophy of "everyone eats" to function. 

I think they are mutually inclusive.  The style of offense frees up Josh , and in turn his insane talent maximizes its effectiveness 

10 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Why? you ask omf?, it's the way of the world.  Let's not stop on Spencer Brown.  EVERY player on this team goes through this "process".

It's not about anything to do with "reality".  It's the "human nature" of many that subjects these players to these critiques.  Fans today are

bombarded with film clips, stats comparing every conceivable angle, and a myriad of opinions (many to just get attention) that all this

is just "normal" today.  I really don't like or understand why so many have a need to instantly predict the outcomes of everything. 

 

WE grew up in a world of football that was 2 games on Sunday.  No sport channels, no YouTube, no "statistical" measurement (except basic numbers),

no 25+ cameras filming every play, etc., etc., etc.  The most awesome thing that we had in the '70s was "Football Digest" which got delivered on Thursdays.

I would give my buddy Mark $.25 to read it after he was done!  You wanted to see other teams highlights you got a couple of plays on "Alcoa" highlights.

When HBO "Inside the NFL" came out we were "mesmerized".  Opinions that generated "arguments" were started by a couple of newspaper men.

 

Fans in the past just had the game to watch.  Nowadays, fans are drawn into being a totally immersed 24/7 participants.

It's truly a great thing and I love it BUT, it opens the door for everyone to be a critic of every little thing. For those (and there are many) who have

a much deeper "knowledge" of the game than some of us, need to understand one thing.  There are 32 teams full of people who know way

more than you and they are WRONG a lot of times.  That equates to you guys not always being right too!  Although what I just typed is

irrefutable, many think they are ALWAYS right on this board.  I've had to learn to live with that.

 

Bottom line, Keon Coleman is a ROOKIE drafted by the Buffalo Bills.  He cannot be redrafted for some other's preferred player.  Not one

fan can say exactly what kind of receiver he will ultimately end up being for Josh Allen and this team.  That's the facts, but many won't

settle for just that.  They have to become their own opinion generators.

 

At the start of this season, I was all excited about the roll Ty Johnson COULD play and why I thought that.

I was shot down by the majority of knowledgeable fans on this board who gave me an abundance of facts why I was wrong.

Just because I was right and they were wrong about this "prediction", does not make me more knowledgeable about football than them.

Simply that I was right, and they were wrong.  The thing is that goes against "human nature".

 

I'm not preaching to anyone oldmanfan.  Just talking out loud to myself.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have been asked and agreed to not commenting further along this line.

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You have the relationship backwards - Allen having an MVP season allowed the philosophy of "everyone eats" to function. 

 

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think they are mutually inclusive.  The style of offense frees up Josh , and in turn his insane talent maximizes its effectiveness 

I have been asked and agreed to not commenting further along this line.

I put this in another thread but think it is important to the conversation that you guys are having:

 

 

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I think they are mutually inclusive.  The style of offense frees up Josh , and in turn his insane talent maximizes its effectiveness 

 

I mean any offense is better when it spreads the ball around and doesn't rely on one guy, everybody agrees with that. That doesn't take away from how middling our pass catchers have been though. Re-posting from the MVP thread:

 

Allen is making this group much much MUCH more than the other way around. It is a perfectly mediocre group of weapons led by an all-time great QB and a very good OL.

[GoBills808]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You have the relationship backwards - Allen having an MVP season allowed the philosophy of "everyone eats" to function. 

Correct

 

And you really have to question people who dispute this tbh. To my eye this has pretty clearly been one of the most Allen centric seasons ever

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You have the relationship backwards - Allen having an MVP season allowed the philosophy of "everyone eats" to function. 

 

Something to be said for that viewpoint on causality.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Bray Wyatt said:

He said from JA17, which excludes the last game.  He would be 27/47 for 57.4% when JA is the QB.

 

54 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

This catch percent comparison boils down to if we trust the last game.  I dont. So i threw away the last game which improves his catch %

 

Do either of you understand how poor a catch rate of 57.4% is in the NFL? Also I didn’t see either of you going back to check and see who else threw some balls to Gabe Davis and what that would do to his numbers.

 

Also I don’t see anyone controlling for QB play. Coleman has Josh freaking Allen throwing him the ball. When judging catch percentage against the league, do you really think that is any a huge help vs what most QBs out there are doing for their receivers?

 

Saying that Coleman is young and has time to improve is one thing. Pretending that his performance this season has been good - or even passable - for an NFL WR or 1st round pick pick is something else. 

Edited 21 hours ago by BarleyNY

[Beck Water]

27 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Correct

 

And you really have to question people who dispute this tbh. To my eye this has pretty clearly been one of the most Allen centric seasons ever

 

I "get" what you're seeing in that from the perspective of gaining separation, this season features arguably the worst WR corps Allen has had since 2018.
 

I'm going to disagree with you that it's the or one of the most Allen-centric seasons ever because of two factors:

1. first time since 2017 that the Bills have had a plausible run game that didn't go through Josh Allen.  literally, Josh at a career low for rush attempts per game

2. only season of Allen's career where YAC have exceeded CAY, meaning the receivers are all contributing after the catch with their legs far more than previous years.

 

I've actually been kind of stoked about both of these observations.  But I also worked on a version of "I want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" where "Hippopotamus" is replaced with "good receiver corps" (try it - it scans).  I plan to record it and send it to Brandon Beane.

 

You can question me all you like tho 

Edited 21 hours ago by Beck Water

[HappyDays]

6 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Saying that Coleman is young and has time to improve is one thing. Pretending that his performance this season has been good - or even passable - for an NFL WR or 1st round pick pick is something else. 

 

And that is 100% fair. As someone that supported the Coleman pick even before we made it I'm not going to bury my head in the sand and pretend his rookie season was anything more than what it was. He needs to progress or else he'll never be more than a complementary piece, kind of like what Mack Hollins was for us this year, and that result isn't worth a high 2nd round pick.

 

The frustrating thing for me is the line appeared to be trending way up in the Tennessee-Seattle games. I thought he had figured it out and was about to become a centerpiece of the offense. Instead he had a bad game against Miami, then got injured, and when he came back from injury he was back to his pre-Tennessee form and plateaued from there. So that's my one lingering disappointment, that he didn't end the season notably better than he started. Pending his performance in the playoffs, of course.

[Beck Water]

29 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

 

Do either of you understand how poor a catch rate of 57.4% is in the NFL? Also I didn’t see either of you going back to check and see who else threw some balls to Gabe Davis and what that would do to his numbers.

 

Also I don’t see anyone controlling for QB play. Coleman has Josh freaking Allen throwing him the ball. When judging catch percentage against the league, do you really think that is any a huge help vs what most QBs out there are doing for their receivers?

 

Saying that Coleman is young and has time to improve is one thing. Pretending that his performance this season has been good - or even passable - for an NFL WR or 1st round pick pick is something else. 

Late to the fair here and butting in.

Good thing Coleman wasn't a first round pick then??

Pickens is at 57.3% this year   His first 2 years were 61.9% and 59.4%.   I think he may be a good wide receiver with a bad attitude (which seems to be endemic in Steelerland, but I digress).  I think his problem this season is he doesn't believe in Santa Claus Russ Wilson anymore

For whatever it's worth, Coleman was at 61% catch rate before his arm got Poyered.   And yeah if he wants to be The Man he better get with Moulds like Shakir did, in the off-season.

Gabe Davis averaged 54.5% with not much variance during his 4 years in Buffalo.  Davis was at 47.6% this past season in Jax.

 

In case you need it said, you're correct that none of the preceding are good for a WR

I honestly think Josh Allen is both a blessing and a curse to WR.  On the one hand, he will extend plays, find receivers, and throw to them where other QB would not, giving them more opportunities.  Blessing.  On the other hand, he throws with such velocity that receivers legit struggle to hold onto those Allen piss-missiles, especially when the weather is wet and their glovies don't work or it's cold and their fingers are numb.  Curse.

Edited 21 hours ago by Beck Water

[OldTimer1960]

On 1/6/2025 at 8:11 AM, White Linen said:

I think we all knew he was going to have to work to realize his potential.  I still think there's enough there to remain hopeful.

I hope you are right.  He seemed to be coming on until Poyer blew him up against Miami.  Did that intimidate Coleman?  If yes, can he recover?  I didn’t like the pick, but was pleasantly surprised up until he got hurt, but he has done next to nothing since returning.  He IS good on the “Allen run around until the defense loses track of receiver plays”.

Edited 20 hours ago by OldTimer1960

[Bray Wyatt]

56 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

 

Do either of you understand how poor a catch rate of 57.4% is in the NFL? Also I didn’t see either of you going back to check and see who else threw some balls to Gabe Davis and what that would do to his numbers.

 

Also I don’t see anyone controlling for QB play. Coleman has Josh freaking Allen throwing him the ball. When judging catch percentage against the league, do you really think that is any a huge help vs what most QBs out there are doing for their receivers?

 

Saying that Coleman is young and has time to improve is one thing. Pretending that his performance this season has been good - or even passable - for an NFL WR or 1st round pick pick is something else. 

 

I was only pointing out your post that said he was 100% incorrect, was in fact incorrect

[3rdand12]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You have the relationship backwards - Allen having an MVP season allowed the philosophy of "everyone eats" to function. 

are they not both complimentary ? And reciprocal ?

BTW , I feel to be in the minority here , but I love this Offense.

38 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Late to the fair here and butting in.

Good thing Coleman wasn't a first round pick then??

Pickens is at 57.3% this year   His first 2 years were 61.9% and 59.4%.   I think he may be a good wide receiver with a bad attitude (which seems to be endemic in Steelerland, but I digress).  I think his problem this season is he doesn't believe in Santa Claus Russ Wilson anymore

For whatever it's worth, Coleman was at 61% catch rate before his arm got Poyered.   And yeah if he wants to be The Man he better get with Moulds like Shakir did, in the off-season.

Gabe Davis averaged 54.5% with not much variance during his 4 years in Buffalo.  Davis was at 47.6% this past season in Jax.

 

In case you need it said, you're correct that none of the preceding are good for a WR

I honestly think Josh Allen is both a blessing and a curse to WR.  On the one hand, he will extend plays, find receivers, and throw to them where other QB would not, giving them more opportunities.  Blessing.  On the other hand, he throws with such velocity that receivers legit struggle to hold onto those Allen piss-missiles, especially when the weather is wet and their glovies don't work or it's cold and their fingers are numb.  Curse.

Fine subjects as points Beck.

And 😄 at a few of the witticisms from you for sure.

Good post all around

 

And great thread from all who have stuck with it !

Go Bills

[BarleyNY]

6 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

I was only pointing out your post that said he was 100% incorrect, was in fact incorrect

That’s fine, but I think I covered the reason why that qualifier was misleading. 

[GoBills808]

48 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I "get" what you're seeing in that from the perspective of gaining separation, this season features arguably the worst WR corps Allen has had since 2018.
 

I'm going to disagree with you that it's the or one of the most Allen-centric seasons ever because of two factors:

1. first time since 2017 that the Bills have had a plausible run game that didn't go through Josh Allen.  literally, Josh at a career low for rush attempts per game

2. only season of Allen's career where YAC have exceeded CAY, meaning the receivers are all contributing after the catch with their legs far more than previous years.

 

I've actually been kind of stoked about both of these observations.  But I also worked on a version of "I want a Hippopotamus for Christmas" where "Hippopotamus" is replaced with "good receiver corps" (try it - it scans).  I plan to record it and send it to Brandon Beane.

 

You can question me all you like tho 

i do appreciate the run game this yr...altho we are still getting 5th most yards per QB. Plausible is a fair characterization

 

As far yards after catch exceeding CAY...yes that is a plus and a credit to the scheme, although since Allen is at a career low in intended air yards/attempt (by a mile) it almost has to be in order for the offense to function

 

Regardless- I say most Allen centric because watching games back the amount of plays he has to make off script to keep the offense on schedule is borderline ridiculous. And there are multiple throws he makes per game that straight up overcome play design. You combine those w his ability to limit negative plays and sacks (some credit due to oline for sure, but a lot due to his straight up refusal to go down behind the LOS)...I mean it's an MVP resume for good reason. His film is astounding this year on a weekly basis