One Thing: Keon looked terrible yesterday

[YattaOkasan]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think your comment on negativity is fair. I think that the flip side is also fair. It’s okay to critique/crticize thinks that aren’t working. His catch percentage is lower than Gabe’s was in every season. We had a major issue with Gabe’s. It’s fair to say that same. The struggles that Coleman is having seem to be similar. It’s not bashing; it’s analyzing.

 

I don’t think anyone is ready to throw Keon away. He has really good ball skills. He’s good with the ball in his hands. His separation is abysmal which leads to his low catch percentage. All of those things are true. He can be a good piece for the Bills moving forward. At the same time, he’s miles from being a number 1 and a long way from being a good number 2. That doesn’t mean that he can’t close that gap. He has some clear strengths and clear weaknesses. They are the same strengths and weaknesses that he had coming out. Hopefully, he improves his release and route running so that every ball thrown his way isn’t a contested catch situation. 

His catch percentage from JA17 is better than any year of Gabe Davis. 

[YattaOkasan]

55 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

He was dropping that pass before poyer hit him too. His hands are pretty bad for someone that was supposed to have good hands. 

Don't disagree on the hands but just went back and watched the video.  He was not dropping that ball before contact.  Ball may have popped out cause of legal contact but it was not gonna be a drop.  

[Sweats]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

 

 

 

 

 

............well said.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

One can only wonder how the team can be 13-4 with such disastrous decision making.

The topic at hand is Keon Coleman as a prospect, the Bills thought process in selecting him, their decision to play him primarily at the X, his 73% snap count thus far and wonder about his ceiling in the offense going forward. 

 

Amari Cooper is on an expiring contract, Mack Hollins is on an expiring 1-year deal, Kahlil Shakir is on his rookie deal for one more year, Curtis Samuel is under contract for 2-more years, and then Coleman. 

 

So we can assess how his rookie year has gone so far, and project what it could look like moving forward. 

 

WR again looks thin past this Playoff run. 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The topic at hand is Keon Coleman as a prospect, the Bills thought process in selecting him, their decision to play him primarily at the X, his 73% snap count thus far and wonder about his ceiling in the offense going forward. 

 

Amari Cooper is on an expiring contract, Mack Hollins is on an expiring 1-year deal, Kahlil Shakir is on his rookie deal for one more year, Curtis Samuel is under contract for 2-more years, and then Coleman. 

 

So we can assess how his rookie year has gone so far, and project what it could look like moving forward. 

 

WR again looks thin past this Playoff run. 

 

 

The issue since the beginning of the season is emphasizing WR vs.  receiving capability as a whole.  The Bills had completions to 13 different players this year.  So when saying the WR corps looks thin it ignores the contribution of the TEs and RBs.  We added Cooper and with him, Shakir, Hollis, and Coleman; together with the TEs and RBs it is a formidable group to defend.  Brady said his philosophy was to let everyone eat, That is happening, and may account for Allen having an MVP season.

 

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

1 hour ago, YattaOkasan said:

Don't disagree on the hands but just went back and watched the video.  He was not dropping that ball before contact.  Ball may have popped out cause of legal contact but it was not gonna be a drop.  

Watch it again. He goes to pull both arms into his body and trap the ball but the ball is already out of his arms and then Poyer hits him. 
 

There was a picture of it right after it happened from a different angle a split second before poyer hit him and the ball was already loose. I’ll see if I can find it if I have time. 

Edited Tuesday at 07:09 PM by Not at the table Karlos

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Eric is wrong. 

 

Gunner, and I mean this in the kindest way: a man has to know his limitations. 

 

Seriously.  If you find yourself declaiming that a former all-pro center turned media commentator is wrong, you really need to reflect a minute.

 

What you have to say about how Coleman runs routes, has validity.  He was drafted for his ceiling, not for who he is right now.

 

At the same time, Allen was connecting with Coleman at a 61% rate before Coleman's injury.  Part of that is because as they build familiarity, the QB knows how the WR is going to run the route, and puts the ball in the place the WR needs it to be *as he is actually running the route*, so he can catch it.

 

That is why Trubisky's comment was something to the effect that if he'd had more time to work with the receivers they would have made a couple of those work.

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 07:30 PM by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

fwiw you're quoting someone who said BTJ got a 'ton' of targets (16th in the league) which produced a 'good' season (3rd in receiving yards in the NFL)

 

in defense of WR76 Keon Coleman

 

12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

yeah catching those Mac Jones passes just really inflates your stats

 

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

slow down on superstar, jefferson and chase were only 4th in the league in receiving yards as rookies...third being merely 'good' they're basically average

 

I'm glad you're having fun.   Let me know if you actually want to talk about something.

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

 

I'm glad you're having fun.   Let me know if you actually want to talk about something.

Look id be lying if I said I wasn't trying to shine on the fact that I called Brian Thomas Jr as the best prospect predraft 

 

Still I think we can have an honest e v a l of Coleman w out denying the superiority of his peers

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

44 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

Watch it again. He goes to pull both arms into his body and trap the ball but the ball is already out of his arms and then Poyer hits him. 
 

There was a picture of it right after it happened from a different angle a split second before poyer hit him and the ball was already loose. I’ll see if I can find it if I have time. 

I see it now.  The Youtube short I found had the attacking EZ angle.  above showed it popping out yeah.  Agree his drops are a problem.

[Kirby Jackson]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

His catch percentage from JA17 is better than any year of Gabe Davis. 

I mean, sure, but that feels like we are trying to make the data work for us. They threw him the ball 10 times with the other guys the other day. A bunch of those were catchable. He caught 2 of 10. If we selectively remove that to fit a narrative, his catch percentage rises. 

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

His catch percentage from JA17 is better than any year of Gabe Davis. 

That is 100% false. Catch percentage is Receptions/Targets.

Gabe Davis:

2020:  35 receptions on 62 targets for 56.5%

2021: 35/63=55.6%

2022: 48/93=51.6%

2023: 45/81=55.6%

 

Keon Coleman

2024: 29/57=50.9%

 

All data from ESPN

Edited Tuesday at 08:11 PM by BarleyNY

[Alphadawg7]

First things first:  When Beane drafted Coleman, he wasn't then, nor ever going to be, the "final piece" to the WR room.  I feel like some had that expectation or have this mentality that he has to be that to justify his selection...and that just isn't the case.  He has WR1 potential, but at the same time we are building an offense that doesn't need that dominant WR1 150 target WR either.  

 

Second, if you remove this high bar expectation and see him more for how he can fit together within a group here, there is a substantially higher potential for him here.  He brings things to the table that quite frankly were not only missing, but Josh had yet to have here.  His size, athleticism, body control, blocking, etc all can have a tremendous amount of value to both this team and Josh as he continues to grow as a player.  And that very well can turn him into a very good WR1.  And to do that, you surround him with guys that help attack in ways that are not his strong suit.

 

I liked the Coleman pick and I still like it now.  I think he has the right work ethic, approach, and mentality to reach his potential in Buffalo.  Like many rookies, he had some ups and downs this year, but that is common and to be expected.  Missing time due to injury didn't help either.  I think he fits in well here and Beane will look to keep putting guys around him that allow the offense to be dynamic and to keep leaning on individuals strong suits.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

Gunner, and I mean this in the kindest way: a man has to know his limitations. 

 

Seriously.  If you find yourself declaiming that a former all-pro center turned media commentator is wrong, you really need to reflect a minute.

 

What you have to say about how Coleman runs routes, has validity.  He was drafted for his ceiling, not for who he is right now.

 

At the same time, Allen was connecting with Coleman at a 61% rate before Coleman's injury.  Part of that is because as they build familiarity, the QB knows how the WR is going to run the route, and puts the ball in the place the WR needs it to be *as he is actually running the route*, so he can catch it.

 

That is why Trubisky's comment was something to the effect that if he'd had more time to work with the receivers they would have made a couple of those work.

 

 

 

I just doubt Eric has really sat down and looked at those plays. He is giving his gut reaction after seeing them from the comms box. And if he has and he has come to that conclusion I am afraid I think he is wrong.

[YattaOkasan]

38 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I mean, sure, but that feels like we are trying to make the data work for us. They threw him the ball 10 times with the other guys the other day. A bunch of those were catchable. He caught 2 of 10. If we selectively remove that to fit a narrative, his catch percentage rises. 

Point is its a super silly game that should probably not be included in the data set.  You can take away the Miami game from game Gabe's rookie year if you wanna be fair (2 for 5 removed bumps gabe to 58%, though the first throw to him was by Josh and was an int). 

 

However, I hardly think this is making the data work for us.  Rather I think its getting us the best representation of what we would expect going forward because I dont think Keon will play another game like the NE game while on his rookie deal.  Thus its not really appropriate to include it in the data set if we are trying to predict future performance.  Now if we get to another one of these games then yes by all means we should expect him to have a low catch %.  Do you include kneel downs in your rushing stats?  

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Point is its a super silly game that should probably not be included in the data set.  You can take away the Miami game from game Gabe's rookie year if you wanna be fair (2 for 5 removed bumps gabe to 58%, though the first throw to him was by Josh and was an int). 

 

However, I hardly think this is making the data work for us.  Rather I think its getting us the best representation of what we would expect going forward because I dont think Keon will play another game like the NE game while on his rookie deal.  Thus its not really appropriate to include it in the data set if we are trying to predict future performance.  Now if we get to another one of these games then yes by all means we should expect him to have a low catch %.  Do you include kneel downs in your rushing stats?  

I don’t understand why we are throwing out the game other than to fit a narrative. He got 10 targets. The throws were, for the most part, pretty good. Let’s say 7 of the 10 were catchable. I haven’t gone back through the All-22 but I’m sure @GunnerBill can weigh in on how many were catchable. If we do throw out 3 because, “if Josh threw those 3 they would have been more catchable” his % rises to 53.7%. That would still be lower than 3 of Gabe’s 4 years in Buffalo. His numbers are based solely off of his targets (57) and his catches (29).

[YattaOkasan]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t understand why we are throwing out the game other than to fit a narrative. He got 10 targets. The throws were, for the most part, pretty good. Let’s say 7 of the 10 were catchable. I haven’t gone back through the All-22 but I’m sure @GunnerBill can weigh in on how many were catchable. If we do throw out 3 because, “if Josh threw those 3 they would have been more catchable” his % rises to 53.7%. That would still be lower than 3 of Gabe’s 4 years in Buffalo. His numbers are based solely off of his targets (57) and his catches (29).

Then you include kneel downs in your running stats?  I dont think this game tells us anything and is not representative of the data.  Pretty clear outlier with good reason to exclude.  Its not fitting a narrative.  I defined why its an outlier.  I have been looking for All 22 as well but there were a lot of just throw it up.  Thats catchable but not a representative sample of how he has been or is expected to be utilized.  If you think that game has any predictive power then were gonna disagree, cause I'm not gonna use data from a game they werent trying to win.  

[Bray Wyatt]

45 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That is 100% false. Catch percentage is Receptions/Targets.

Gabe Davis:

2020:  35 receptions on 62 targets for 56.5%

2021: 35/63=55.6%

2022: 48/93=51.6%

2023: 45/81=55.6%

 

Keon Coleman

2024: 29/57=50.9%

 

All data from ESPN

 

He said from JA17, which excludes the last game.  He would be 27/47 for 57.4% when JA is the QB.

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Then you include kneel downs in your running stats?  I dont think this game tells us anything and is not representative of the data.  Pretty clear outlier with good reason to exclude.  Its not fitting a narrative.  I defined why its an outlier.  I have been looking for All 22 as well but there were a lot of just throw it up.  Thats catchable but not a representative sample of how he has been or is expected to be utilized.  If you think that game has any predictive power then were gonna disagree, cause I'm not gonna use data from a game they werent trying to win.  

If we are evaluating Samuel do we count last week because he caught 7 of 8 targets? Lol, it’s absolutely fitting a narrative. He was thrown the ball 10 times. He caught 2. Samuel was thrown the ball 8 times. He caught 7. There is no reason to selectively decide when to exclude data other than to for whatever narrative we are trying to portray. It’s much more honest to look at the data and see what it says. There’s no reason to manipulate it.

[YattaOkasan]

59 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That is 100% false. Catch percentage is Receptions/Targets.

Gabe Davis:

2020:  35 receptions on 62 targets for 56.5%

2021: 35/63=55.6%

2022: 48/93=51.6%

2023: 45/81=55.6%

 

Keon Coleman

2024: 29/57=50.9%

 

All data from ESPN

This catch percent comparison boils down to if we trust the last game.  I dont. So i threw away the last game which improves his catch %.

 

Keon has too many drops this year.  As gunner has said thats coachable.  He doesnt get enough separation.  Again thats coachable.  He has not shown much more than Gabe did statistically, but his flashes have been greater (high pointing and broken tackles).  However, I think he has much more room for improvement than Gabe because hes a better athlete and has less experience at the position.  

4 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

If we are evaluating Samuel do we count last week because he caught 7 of 8 targets? Lol, it’s absolutely fitting a narrative. He was thrown the ball 10 times. He caught 2. Samuel was thrown the ball 8 times. He caught 7. There is no reason to selectively decide when to exclude data other than to for whatever narrative we are trying to portray. It’s much more honest to look at the data and see what it says. There’s no reason to manipulate it.

No, I do not take that game into my evaluation of Samuel.  I said I take nothing from that game.  Others might but Im not thinking Samuel is gonna get 8 targets or match that type of production.  So you have included Samuel's last game into your evaluation?  You think that game means hes better living up to his contract?

 

If you have outlier you are excluding, then you need to state your reason for exclusion.  I did.  You disagree.  I aint being selective as that was a game that should not be in the data set and im not including it.

 

Do we think KC's defense got so bad just now? no.  The data says theres special cause affecting that last data point and its not representative.  Best to exclude it from the data set.  

Edited Tuesday at 09:12 PM by YattaOkasan