One Thing: Keon looked terrible yesterday

[Bruffalo]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Despite not getting great separation Coleman was still 4th in the entire league in YPC this season. He also had 215 YAC which put him around same range as George Pickens (Coleman had 30 less catches) and Jordan Addison (Coleman had 34 less catches). I think the key is we find ways to get him the ball in his hands. As he's clearly a playmaker if he can catch it. 

 

He had a bunch of big catches called back on big penalties through the season too. I'm pretty high on him after his rookie campaign, honestly. He's not going to be Justin Jefferson or Jamar Chase, but I could see him being a high end #2 or low end #1 by his 3rd-4th season. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, eball said:

 

So is this something you have noticed all year?  If so, it appears to be a coaching issue and not a talent issue.  Do you agree?

 

 

It is something that has been a Keon issue for as long as he has played football from what I can tell. It was all over his college tape. I do think it is coachable but I'd be shocked if nobody has tried by this point in his development. He is still a young player. He still has time. But he needs to improve because even with Josh Allen as your Quarterback every throw outside being a contested ball is a tough way to make a living.

21 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Despite not getting great separation Coleman was still 4th in the entire league in YPC this season. He also had 215 YAC which put him around same range as George Pickens (Coleman had 30 less catches) and Jordan Addison (Coleman had 34 less catches). I think the key is we find ways to get him the ball in his hands. As he's clearly a playmaker if he can catch it. 

 

100%. He is much better with the ball in his hands than he is running routes downfield to become a target for his QB. This should not come as a surprise. This was all there on the college tape. The way the Bills were using him in the 2/3 games just before his injury is the way forward. Shorter passes, use the middle of the field, create catch and run opportunities. 

41 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You don’t know what plays are being called.  None of us do.

 

No. But if he is running a go route there are not many other plays that could have been called. Unless he was supposed to be running a post and ran a go but if that is the case he was even more in the wrong spot...

[Straight Hucklebuck]

On 1/6/2025 at 9:22 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

This is an excellent breakdown. And that sideline play towards the end is yet another example of what I am talking about in terms of him playing to contact on the outside. When people said he doesn't seaparate we got told we were obsessed with 40 time. And sure, a handful were, I never was. I was talking about this stuff before the draft. Again in May. And again in October. 

Watched the video to the end: it's almost as if there are people who do this for a living like Matt Harmon who said the exact same thing before the Draft last year. 

 

🤷‍♂️

 

And the quotes from the other Executives around the league about having no fear of the Bills perimeter WRs, and ehh Coleman is a guy, lines up with the Houston game where Allen went 9/30 and Mack Hollins was the #1 in that game because there was no Shakir. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Watched the video to the end: it's almost as if there are people who do this for a living like Matt Harmon who said the exact same thing before the Draft last year. 

 

🤷‍♂️

 

And the quotes from the other Executives around the league about having no fear of the Bills perimeter WRs, and ehh Coleman is a guy, lines up with the Houston game where Allen went 9/30 and Mack Hollins was the #1 in that game because there was no Shakir. 

 

And without blowing my own trumpet too much I was saying exactly the same as Matt about 3 weeks before he did his Coleman breakdown last Feb time. He saw the exact same guy I did when I watched the tape. 

 

As for the outside thing it lines up ti what Roquan Smith said after the Baltimore game too. He basically said "our plan was let them have the outside, they can't beat you there." 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

You don’t know what plays are being called.  None of us do.

Okay, this is 2025 though and there are people who do this for a living. 

 

They chart every route the guy runs, the separation, the success rate, grades against zone, man and press man. 

 

If you're willing to pay for the advanced statistics you can see data. 

 

These aren't just opinions pulled from the sky. 

 

 

 

And on the NFL Scouting Report:

 

"Coleman might lack the athletic traits to be a well-rounded WR2. Instead, keep an eye on him as a big slot receiver who can be a red-zone specialist." 

 

Weaknesses

Press coverage can blanket his release and catch a ride.

Below-average acceleration getting out of breaks and cuts.

Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches.

Needs to play through downfield corners to secure catch space.

 

 

 

Maybe Lance Zierlein doesn't know anything either huh oldmanfan because he doesn't know the exact playcall in the huddle. 

 

None of this is new. 

[eball]

On 1/6/2025 at 9:22 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

This is an excellent breakdown. And that sideline play towards the end is yet another example of what I am talking about in terms of him playing to contact on the outside. When people said he doesn't seaparate we got told we were obsessed with 40 time. And sure, a handful were, I never was. I was talking about this stuff before the draft. Again in May. And again in October. 

 

It sounds to me as though right now Keon's highest and best use is as a "big slot" guy and in the red zone (where he can go up and get a ball).  It's not beating corners and it's (as Steve says) certainly not as an X.  Hopefully Brady sees that as well for his use in the playoffs, and then we can see what he works on and (hopefully) where he improves.

 

[Scott7975]

I didnt see this game but I have seen his struggles in other games. I think maybe or maybe I hope that his wrist is still bothering him.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, eball said:

 

It sounds to me as though right now Keon's highest and best use is as a "big slot" guy and in the red zone (where he can go up and get a ball).  It's not beating corners and it's (as Steve says) certainly not as an X.  Hopefully Brady sees that as well for his use in the playoffs, and then we can see what he works on and (hopefully) where he improves.

 

 

Yep. Big slot or inside the number in tight splits and as a redzone guy.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

And without blowing my own trumpet too much I was saying exactly the same as Matt about 3 weeks before he did his Coleman breakdown last Feb time. He saw the exact same guy I did when I watched the tape. 

 

As for the outside thing it lines up ti what Roquan Smith said after the Baltimore game too. He basically said "our plan was let them have the outside, they can't beat you there." 

The Bills don't invest in WR so you get the commensurate results. 

 

You don't put money into the 401 K, don't complain when you go to retire and there is no money. 

 

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Okay, this is 2025 though and there are people who do this for a living. 

 

They chart every route the guy runs, the separation, the success rate, grades against zone, man and press man. 

 

If you're willing to pay for the advanced statistics you can see data. 

 

These aren't just opinions pulled from the sky. 

 

 

 

And on the NFL Scouting Report:

 

"Coleman might lack the athletic traits to be a well-rounded WR2. Instead, keep an eye on him as a big slot receiver who can be a red-zone specialist." 

 

Weaknesses

Press coverage can blanket his release and catch a ride.

Below-average acceleration getting out of breaks and cuts.

Could struggle finding separation to avoid excessive contested catches.

Needs to play through downfield corners to secure catch space.

 

 

 

Maybe Lance Zierlein doesn't know anything either huh oldmanfan because he doesn't know the exact playcall in the huddle. 

 

None of this is new. 

I will simply say this:  I do not understand the compulsion some Bills fans have to pick out a player and rag on them.  Recently it was Spencer Brown, and he's turned out to be pretty damn good.  Coleman is a rookie WR.  He has things to learn, but even so he has made some really good plays this year.  But we now have a 14-page thread devoted to ragging on this guy just because of a few routes in a meaningless game where passes were thrown by backups.  Why? Why is there this compulsion to pick out a guy to criticize?  I've seen it since the days of the Kemp/Lamonica debates.  Let the kid play, let him develop.  My guess is he'll make a big play of two on Sunday.  But we'll see.

 

I don't know Zierlein or his background.  some of what he says seems accurate for Coleman, but he's a rookie.  Also, we have guys here claiming a guy like Eric Wood is wrong with his take on Sunday;  I simply tend to favor the interpretation of guys that have actually played at the pro level. 

Edited Tuesday at 04:00 PM by oldmanfan

[Straight Hucklebuck]

4 minutes ago, eball said:

 

It sounds to me as though right now Keon's highest and best use is as a "big slot" guy and in the red zone (where he can go up and get a ball).  It's not beating corners and it's (as Steve says) certainly not as an X.  Hopefully Brady sees that as well for his use in the playoffs, and then we can see what he works on and (hopefully) where he improves.

 

This was always the problem though. 

 

Curtis Samuel as we've seen, is completely ineffective (really outside or in the slot). 

 

Shakir is not a perimeter WR. 

 

Kincaid plays in tighter formations. 

 

So all of this was covered from the beginning - there is not a clear path to slot play, and as most mid-season rookie WR gradings - Coleman is used almost exclusively as the X. He can't beat press, he's too freaking slow. 

 

The Bills only keep 5 WRs as well, and ditched MVS who functions as an outside stretcher. 

[oldmanfan]

10 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This was always the problem though. 

 

Curtis Samuel as we've seen, is completely ineffective (really outside or in the slot). 

 

Shakir is not a perimeter WR. 

 

Kincaid plays in tighter formations. 

 

So all of this was covered from the beginning - there is not a clear path to slot play, and as most mid-season rookie WR gradings - Coleman is used almost exclusively as the X. He can't beat press, he's too freaking slow. 

 

The Bills only keep 5 WRs as well, and ditched MVS who functions as an outside stretcher. 

One can only wonder how the team can be 13-4 with such disastrous decision making.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

One can only wonder how the team can be 13-4 with such disastrous decision making.

The problem is that both of those things can be true. You can also be 13-4, as the Bills are, while allowing 5.6 yards per play. The record doesn’t mean that everything is clicking. It means that they’ve been able to overcome certain struggles. Coleman’s lack of separation and low catch percentage has not stopped the Bills from winning. At the same time, if those things improved the Bills would be even better. It’s not rocket science…

[zow2]

I like Keon and think he will get better of course.  But right now he drops more balls than I'd like to see.  He cost Josh an INT earlier this season and has had a few bounce of his hands that could be picked if he is sloppy in the playoffs.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The problem is that both of those things can be true. You can also be 13-4, as the Bills are, while allowing 5.6 yards per play. The record doesn’t mean that everything is clicking. It means that they’ve been able to overcome certain struggles. Coleman’s lack of separation and low catch percentage has not stopped the Bills from winning. At the same time, if those things improved the Bills would be even better. It’s not rocket science…

I am commenting more on the fact that, for whatever reason, Bills fabs historically tend to seek ways to be negative about things, often times by singling out a specific player.  Coleman had 550 yards, 4 TDs and averages just over 19 yards per reception in 12 games played, one of which with backup QBs.  He could have looked better Sunday, sure.  But is that game worth 14 pages of bashing the kid?  He's a rookie, he's made some good plays, and he'll develop as he gains experience.  Again my bet is he scores a TD Sunday.

[Not at the table Karlos]

2 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Joe Marino said the All-22 tape didn't come out as normal yesterday so I didn't get his breakdown yet, but he said that Coleman was a player he wanted to analyze. 

 

Its not disputable that he couldn't separate from Patriots depth corners, except on one drag route. 

 

The deep ball to the end zone he was blanketed. 

 

Can't pull another Gabe Davis and just bank on him getting better. 

He had 1 catch in that game before the Poyer hit. 

 

So that narrative is off the back of the Titans and Seahawks games in back to back weeks, but the Miami game he had 1 catch before the Poyer shot with 1-minute left in the 4th-Quarter.  

He was dropping that pass before poyer hit him too. His hands are pretty bad for someone that was supposed to have good hands. 

[Kirby Jackson]

38 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

I am commenting more on the fact that, for whatever reason, Bills fabs historically tend to seek ways to be negative about things, often times by singling out a specific player.  Coleman had 550 yards, 4 TDs and averages just over 19 yards per reception in 12 games played, one of which with backup QBs.  He could have looked better Sunday, sure.  But is that game worth 14 pages of bashing the kid?  He's a rookie, he's made some good plays, and he'll develop as he gains experience.  Again my bet is he scores a TD Sunday.

I think your comment on negativity is fair. I think that the flip side is also fair. It’s okay to critique/crticize thinks that aren’t working. His catch percentage is lower than Gabe’s was in every season. We had a major issue with Gabe’s. It’s fair to say that same. The struggles that Coleman is having seem to be similar. It’s not bashing; it’s analyzing.

 

I don’t think anyone is ready to throw Keon away. He has really good ball skills. He’s good with the ball in his hands. His separation is abysmal which leads to his low catch percentage. All of those things are true. He can be a good piece for the Bills moving forward. At the same time, he’s miles from being a number 1 and a long way from being a good number 2. That doesn’t mean that he can’t close that gap. He has some clear strengths and clear weaknesses. They are the same strengths and weaknesses that he had coming out. Hopefully, he improves his release and route running so that every ball thrown his way isn’t a contested catch situation. 

[Fender]

On 1/6/2025 at 8:14 AM, Back2Buff said:

I will forever be baffled when people act surprised with Keon's performance.  This is who the player was before he was drafted.  This is the guy he is.

 

There were a lot better option available and Beane fumbled it.  It was a bad pick at the time, and he hasn't shown much more than what everyone knew you were getting prior to the season.

 

He will never be a number one WR and I think it will be a stretch for him to be a number two.  He will be a situational spark plug.  

 

WR is STILL a massive hole yet again.

lol, you seem to really know ball 

[oldmanfan]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think your comment on negativity is fair. I think that the flip side is also fair. It’s okay to critique/crticize thinks that aren’t working. His catch percentage is lower than Gabe’s was in every season. We had a major issue with Gabe’s. It’s fair to say that same. The struggles that Coleman is having seem to be similar. It’s not bashing; it’s analyzing.

 

I don’t think anyone is ready to throw Keon away. He has really good ball skills. He’s good with the ball in his hands. His separation is abysmal which leads to his low catch percentage. All of those things are true. He can be a good piece for the Bills moving forward. At the same time, he’s miles from being a number 1 and a long way from being a good number 2. That doesn’t mean that he can’t close that gap. He has some clear strengths and clear weaknesses. They are the same strengths and weaknesses that he had coming out. Hopefully, he improves his release and route running so that every ball thrown his way isn’t a contested catch situation. 

Agreed.  I wish everyone would think the way you have outlined.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I think your comment on negativity is fair. I think that the flip side is also fair. It’s okay to critique/crticize thinks that aren’t working. His catch percentage is lower than Gabe’s was in every season. We had a major issue with Gabe’s. It’s fair to say that same. The struggles that Coleman is having seem to be similar. It’s not bashing; it’s analyzing.

 

I don’t think anyone is ready to throw Keon away. He has really good ball skills. He’s good with the ball in his hands. His separation is abysmal which leads to his low catch percentage. All of those things are true. He can be a good piece for the Bills moving forward. At the same time, he’s miles from being a number 1 and a long way from being a good number 2. That doesn’t mean that he can’t close that gap. He has some clear strengths and clear weaknesses. They are the same strengths and weaknesses that he had coming out. Hopefully, he improves his release and route running so that every ball thrown his way isn’t a contested catch situation. 

tbh i think some of the confusion around Coleman is from the people who thought he'd step right into a WR1 type role