Broncos at Bills Sunday 1pm (confirmed)

[zow2]

1 minute ago, bills6969 said:

I think we’re on the more upset alert than the Ravens.  The Steelers look like dog poop and are reeling.  I would be shocked if they pulled the upset.

 

imo here is how I rank the teams on upset alert this weekend:

 

1 Texans

2 Vikings

3 Bucs

4 Bills

5 Ravens

6 Eagles

 

The main reason is the legit power rankings as of today are different than the playoff order.  In reality Baltimore is playing 7 seed Pittsburgh.  I'd say Houston is the real 6 seed and Denver is probably 5.   

[DapperCam]

2 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

They aren’t the same team that won the first game.  Wilson has regressed to what he was in Denver

The defense is just as good though. As long as Wilson doesn’t turn the ball over like he did in the 2nd matchup it will be a one score game. Like 24-18 final score or something like that. These AFC North matchups are almost always like that unless one of the teams is terrible.

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Why is the national media so widely saying this could be the upset of the weekend.

 

What am I not seeing?

 

I really can't believe more aren't talking about that Ravens vs Steelers matchup.

 

Well, the press does need a story, and a Cinderella story with a rookie QB beating an MVP candidate seems made for TV. 

 

But those who actually know something, like Dan Orlovsky, see the following:

 

1. Denver's defense is very good, especially against the run.  9th for rush attempts, 3rd for rush yards. 
2. Some of that could be desperate QB trying to return to the LOS because Broncos are #1 for sacks, and it isn't close

3. Big part of the Bills offense this year has been a balanced attack with running the ball.  Top-10 for both rush attempts and rush yards.  Shut down the run, the Bills offense may struggle.
4. Denver has one of the best CB in the league in Surtain.  The Bills aren't seen as having a particularly challenging receiver corps to take away.

5. Nix is not a genuine dual-threat QB but he is mobile in the pocket and has escapability.  41 rushing 1st downs.  So he has to be contained, like a dual threat.
6. Nix has better stats than Josh Allen - more passing TD, more passing yards, higher completion % - in part due to a play action and screen passing game and....

7. Buffalo's defense struggles against play action and screens.  They depend on their front 4 to pressure the QB, which means they're always treading that fine line between being aggressive enough and overpursuing/coming too early.
8. Buffalo's defense has been very uneven.  Against some good offenses like the Ravens, Rams and Lions, we gave up a *****-ton of points.  Now, people who look under the hood say "yeah, injuries may have had something to do with that" but, the media doesn't look that far under the hood.

By the way, good article by Joe Buscaglia

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6050954/2025/01/10/bills-wild-card-broncos-josh-allen-bo-nix/

And for you "Shakir returning punts" guys, that is Joe's prediction if Codrington can't go.

Edited Friday at 05:29 PM by Beck Water

[Jauronimo]

1 hour ago, Buffalo4Life01 said:

If the Ravens lose this weekend to the Steelers in Baltimore, wildcard round of the playoffs, with Lamar being a potential MVP of the NFL winner, it will go down as one of the worst losses in NFL playoff history.  It will be utterly embarrassing for that franchise, much more so than if Buffalo were to lose to Denver on Sunday.  That would be awful as well but not nearly as bad on a national scale.

Allen is an MVP candidate.  The bills are playing in the Wild Card round of the playoffs as the 2 seed.  A loss would be utterly embarrassing for our fans and the franchise.

[Chandler#81]

No Bills made 1st Team All-Pro. I guess this means we suck..

🤦‍♂️

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, the press does need a story, and a Cinderella story with a rookie QB beating an MVP candidate seems made for TV. 

 

But those who actually know something, like Dan Orlovsky, see the following:

 

1. Denver's defense is very good, especially against the run.  9th for rush attempts, 3rd for rush yards. 
2. Some of that could be desperate QB trying to return to the LOS because Broncos are #1 for sacks, and it isn't close

3. Big part of the Bills offense this year has been a balanced attack with running the ball.  Top-10 for both rush attempts and rush yards.  Shut down the run, the Bills offense may struggle.
4. Denver has one of the best CB in the league in Surtain.  The Bills aren't seen as having a particularly challenging receiver corps to take away.

5. Nix is not a genuine dual-threat QB but he is mobile in the pocket and has escapability.  41 rushing 1st downs.  So he has to be contained, like a dual threat.
6. Nix has better stats than Josh Allen - more passing TD, more passing yards, higher completion % - in part due to a play action and screen passing game and....

7. Buffalo's defense struggles against play action and screens.  They depend on their front 4 to pressure the QB, which means they're always treading that fine line between being aggressive enough and overpursuing/coming too early.
8. Buffalo's defense has been very uneven.  Against some good offenses like the Ravens, Rams and Lions, we gave up a *****-ton of points.  Now, people who look under the hood say "yeah, injuries may have had something to do with that" but, the media doesn't look that far under the hood.

By the way, good article by Joe Buscaglia

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6050954/2025/01/10/bills-wild-card-broncos-josh-allen-bo-nix/

And for you "Shakir returning punts" guys, that is Joe's prediction if Codrington can't go.

 

Well, I guess there is that.

 

I’m not offended by the upset talk. Every game scares me to death.  

[Chandler#81]

 

But, we suck..

[Buffalo4Life01]

9 minutes ago, Jauronimo said:

Allen is an MVP candidate.  The bills are playing in the Wild Card round of the playoffs as the 2 seed.  A loss would be utterly embarrassing for our fans and the franchise.

Of course it would be.  But not nearly as embarrassing as it would be if the TWO time NFL MVP loses to the lowly Pittsburg Steelers, losers of 4 games in a row who are playing as poorly as any team in the playoffs outside of the Texans.  

[PaattMaann]

43 minutes ago, bills6969 said:

I think we’re on the more upset alert than the Ravens.  The Steelers look like dog poop and are reeling.  I would be shocked if they pulled the upset.

 

imo here is how I rank the teams on upset alert this weekend:

 

1 Texans

2 Vikings

3 Bucs

4 Bills

5 Ravens

6 Eagles

 

Texans cant be on upset alert, they are the underdog 

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

Well, I guess there is that.

 

I’m not offended by the upset talk. Every game scares me to death.  

 

I'm actually delighted by the upset talk.  I think it's much easier to motivate the Bills team if they feel dissed.

Zero first team all - pro's, talk of the Broncos upsetting them -  LET'S GOoooOOOOOOOOOO!

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, Dan said:

transmogrified 

Made me think of this

[Buffalo03]

On 1/8/2025 at 11:20 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

My number one most hated head coach has always been Sean Payton for a couple reasons.

 

His smugness! He likes to talk trash to players. 
 

The number one reason is he was very close to becoming the Bills head coach before becoming the Saints coach. He talked about dodging a bullet because Buffalo went a different direction. The way he said it just rubbed me the wrong way. 
 

 

I did not know about how close he was to being the Bills HC. I actually don't remember him even interviewing back then. So, what you're telling me is, we hired Dick Jauron over him? That would have been 2006. That was Jauron's first year. That makes me wanna puke

 

Edited Friday at 06:03 PM by Buffalo03

[Scott7975]

Quote

Bill Vinovich will lead officiating crew for Bills-Broncos playoff matchup

The NFL announced officiating assignments for Wild Card Weekend on Monday, and Buffalo will see a familiar face in Bill Vinovich, who was assigned to lead the officiating crew in Orchard Park, N.Y.

Vinovich typically doesn't get too involved. Vinovich's crew averaged the fewest flags per game during the 2024 regular season, per ESPN's Kevin Seifert. The same crew also threw the fewest flags in 2021 and 2022, according to the NFL penalties database.

However, Vinovich won't be accompanied by his usual cohorts in the postseason. Along with experience-based eligibility requirements, the NFL uses a tier system to assign officials for postseason games based on a grading system throughout the regular season, per Football Zebras. That means Vinovich's crew may be comprised of a few officials who are more willing to toss a flag.

Vinovich has oversaw some notable losses for the BIlls in recent years. He was the referee for Buffalo's 38-24 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2021 AFC Championship game. Vinovich also called two penalties that extended Denver's game-winning drive against Buffalo in Week 10 of the 2023 regular season.

Vinovich also infamously scolded Bills fans for throwing snowballs onto the field during the second quarter of a matchup against the Miami Dolphins in 2022. Vinovich told fans he would enforce a 15-yard penalty against the Bills if the snowballs continued to rain down, but it was an empty threat — ESPN's officiating analyst John Parry told The Buffalo News that the NFL rulebook doesn't give officials the ability to penalize the home team under those circumstances.

As Payton knows all too well, Vinovich's conservative approach isn't always a positive thing. During the infamous 2018 NFC Championship game, Vinovich's crew missed a blatant pass interference penalty that helped the Los Angeles Rams defeat the New Orleans Saints, who were coached by Payton at the time. That was Vinovich's last game in New Orleans.

The Broncos ranked No. 19 in penalties (108) this season but surrendered the 10th-most penalty yardage (941). The Bills ranked No. 12 in penalties (112) but surrendered the 13th-fewest penalty yardage (833). Denver's opponents were called for the fifth-fewest penalties (81) and sixth-fewest penalty yards (670), while Buffalo's opponents drew the fourth-most penalties (110) for the fifth-most penalty yards (998).

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/broncos-bills-officiating-crew-sounds-likely-to-get-bills-mafia-into-a-frenzy/ar-BB1rbxRr

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/other/broncos-bills-officiating-crew-sounds-likely-to-get-bills-mafia-into-a-frenzy/ar-BB1rbxRr

on the positive side he did 1 game for us this year and it was Miami.  We had 1 penalty 

[Scott7975]

10 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

on the positive side he did 1 game for us this year and it was Miami.  We had 1 penalty 

I think the crew itself is different

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I think the worst thing that could've happened to the Broncos upset hopes took a huge hit when the ALL PRO team came out.

[strive_for_five_guy]

10 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I think the worst thing that could've happened to the Broncos upset hopes took a huge hit when the ALL PRO team came out.

Agreed.  Pretty sure this Bills team is going to be playing pissed for all of these playoffs now.  I was anxious about the game on Sunday, but excepting them to spank the Broncos now.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

24 minutes ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

I think the worst thing that could've happened to the Broncos upset hopes took a huge hit when the ALL PRO team came out.

talk about poking the bear.

[Bigvinny]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

Steelers won the first matchup vs the Ravens, and the 2nd matchup had a pick 6, Wilson fumbling at the 5 yard line, and the Ravens fumbling 3 times and recovering all of them. I bet it’s a close game.

 

Ravens might benefit from turnovers again like they did in the second matchup (14+ point swing), but I doubt it.

And Zay Flowers is out. Steelers can focus on stopping Henry.

[jletha]

At a high level: If the Bills lose it would be the worst loss of the entire season. The losses to Houston and the Rams were against lesser opponents but both were on the road and in Houston we had significant injuries to guys playing now and we didnt have Cooper on the team. We have not lost a game at home at all this season. Despite over achieving pre-season expectations, the Broncos could have clinched a playoff spot by winning week 16, 17 or 18. Instead, when the pressure was on they lost against LAC and CIN before beating the Chiefs in week 18 playing backups. Yes I know Denver has some good units and arent an easy out, Buffalo is the superior team.

 

Digging into the details a bit: Denver leads the league in sacks which is the biggest strength of Buffalo. Josh has been sacked fewer than any QB in the league this season. If Im a DC that relies on getting to the QB to get stops, this doesnt make me feel good. Yes Surtain can shut down a single WR by himself, but our "spread it around" philosophy on offense makes this less signifncant. Case in point is the game against Detroit where Cooper had 0 targets and we scored 48 points. So the two key strength of Denver are up against our strengths as well.

 

On the other side of the ball, Buffalo philosophy in keeping things in front of us and making the other teams make a mistake is the exact strategy that works against rookie QBs. Bo Nix has 12 ints on the season, and I dont expect him to orchestrate 6-7 scoring drives against us without a turnover.

 

Ultimately, while I dont expect a cake walk, over the course of 4Q I expect Buffalo will win comfortably.

Edited Friday at 07:32 PM by jletha