Myles Garrett: What would it take?

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I am not saying that great teams don't have elite non-QB players, but rather that you don't always need 10 elite players to win. KC has 2-3 really good defensive players but it's not a star studded roster on defense. On offense Kelce hasn't been a star player for a couple of years and I don't see much elite talent outside of Mankins and Humphries on the offensive line. They just mainly have a lot of solid starting caliber players contributing their roles and executing a system around an electric QB. I think KC stopped having completely stacked star laden rosters after they traded away Tyreke Hill and started paying Mahomes on a big contract. 

 

I also am not so sure a "war daddy" pass rusher whose turning 30 on a massive contract and will cost a ton of valuable draft capital is the missing piece either. As good as Garrett is I think the Bills needs on defense won't fully be solved by adding Garrett. Don't get me wrong Garrett would tremendously help the team but he wouldn't be a panacea either. 

 

I also disagree that finding "good" but not elite players like Groot, Shakir, Bernard, and Cook are players you can rather easily "find". I do agree that they are certainly easier to find than an elite talent like Garrett but I also don't think those types of players don't hold very good value either. I also think the value of finding an elite talent in the draft is so much greater than trading a lot of draft capital for an elite talent so having more picks means a better chance to find those elite players at the beginning of their career. 

 

In the end my philosophy comes down to is Garrett at a cost of a lot of draft and cap capital going to be that last big piece that puts the team over the top? I don't think he will be and I think the long term damage that such a move could yield is not worth the risk. 

I have to really question the logic behind saying a number 1 pick and then paying a Rousseau $25M AAV is not using a lot of draft or cap capital, but trading at least a #1 and other picks for Garrett making $30M AAV is some huge risk. 
 

The Bills haven’t had an elite pass rusher since Mario. We have spent multiple draft picks trying to get one. We gave Von Miller $20M a year to get one. What is the difference between the picks for Rousseau, Boogie, AJE and the contracts for Von and likely Rousseau vs both of those things used for an actual superstar HoF pass rusher in Garrett?

 

Elite pass rushers are the closest thing to panaceas on defense btw. They make everyone better. That’s why they are the second highest paid position.

 

There is honestly no more impactful player in the NFL that the Bills could trade for. 

Edited Monday at 12:24 AM by FireChans

[Maine-iac]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I have to really question the logic behind saying a number 1 pick and then paying a Rousseau $25M AAV is not using a lot of draft or cap capital, but trading at least a #1 and other picks for Garrett making $30M AAV is some huge risk. 
 

The Bills haven’t had an elite pass rusher since Mario. We have spent multiple draft picks trying to get one. We gave Von Miller $20M a year to get one. What is the difference between the picks for Rousseau, Boogie, AJE and the contracts for Von and likely Rousseau vs both of those things used for an actual superstar HoF pass rusher in Garrett?

 

Elite pass rushers are the closest thing to panaceas on defense btw. They make everyone better. That’s why they are the second highest paid position.

 

There is honestly no more impactful player in the NFL that the Bills could trade for. 

Unload Miller.  Back load the contract so we have Miller's 15 mil. dead cap off the books and it would essentially be a second at bat for hitting a pass rusher home run.  I'd be all for bringing in Garrett at 30M.  Miller was (according to spotrac) going to be on the books for almost 24M anyways.

[BillsFanForever19]

31 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

Unload Miller.  Back load the contract so we have Miller's 15 mil. dead cap off the books and it would essentially be a second at bat for hitting a pass rusher home run.  I'd be all for bringing in Garrett at 30M.  Miller was (according to spotrac) going to be on the books for almost 24M anyways.

 

You're omitting a GIANT part of the equation here. Garrett isn't a Free Agent. Which brings me to the Topic Question....

 

"Myles Garrett: What would it take?" - more in trade compensation than Beane is probably willing to give up, when we have to also pay a massive contract on top of it.

Edited Monday at 01:18 AM by BillsFanForever19

[Maine-iac]

Just now, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You're omitting a GIANT part of the equation here. Garrett isn't a Free Agent. Which brings me to the Topic Question....

 

"Myles Garrett: What would it take?" - more in trade compensation than Beane is probably willing to give up.

Well that changes things .  Honestly if we are going after anyone, free agent or otherwise, I'd rather have an interior rusher.  I think our edge rushers get the shaft because our coverage has guys running open for quick passes and our DT's are inconsistent at pushing up the middle so most QB's can just step up and escape.  I think Aaron Donald would make more of a difference here than Garrett would.  

[Warriorspikes51]

No thanks, he has issues in his feet and needs surgery right? 
 

 

[billsfan89]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I have to really question the logic behind saying a number 1 pick and then paying a Rousseau $25M AAV is not using a lot of draft or cap capital, but trading at least a #1 and other picks for Garrett making $30M AAV is some huge risk. 
 

The Bills haven’t had an elite pass rusher since Mario. We have spent multiple draft picks trying to get one. We gave Von Miller $20M a year to get one. What is the difference between the picks for Rousseau, Boogie, AJE and the contracts for Von and likely Rousseau vs both of those things used for an actual superstar HoF pass rusher in Garrett?

 

Elite pass rushers are the closest thing to panaceas on defense btw. They make everyone better. That’s why they are the second highest paid position.

 

There is honestly no more impactful player in the NFL that the Bills could trade for. 

 

Don't get me wrong there is a compelling argument that the Bills getting a pass rusher like Myles Garrett at a tremendous cost is well worth it. I just don't like trading for a 30 year old non-QB player at a high cost on a high contract. I don't think those types of moves usually end up working out especially on a team that is paying a QB a massive contract. You can't say because other 1st and 2nd round picks aren't as good as Garrett that it justifies losing future capital. The past picks are sunk costs as is the money given to Von. The question is, is Garrett at age 30 worth giving up 4-5 draft picks plus taking on his massive contract. There's a very compelling argument that he's worth it. I am not so sure that he is.

 

The difference in paying Groot 22ish million a season and taking on Garrett at 30 million is that you also keep your draft capital and Groot is younger and slightly cheaper as well. I also think rewarding the players in the locker room is a secondary positive but not a major factor. I guess it comes down to the fact that I see so many trades where big star players (who are younger than 30) get traded for a boat load of draft picks it seems to work out more for the team acquiring the draft picks than the team trading for the star player. 

[FireChans]

Just now, billsfan89 said:

You can't say because other 1st and 2nd round picks aren't as good as Garrett that it justifies losing future capital.

I honestly think you can. 
 

Draft capital is completely overrated. 

The Rams have had 1 first round pick since 2017. They have had the 7th best record in the NFL during that span, have had multiple playoff appearances, been to two SB’s and won 1.

 

I don’t know where you see the massive trades working out only for the team getting picks. The Rams won a Super Bowl with an “eff them picks” mentality.

 

Listen, if the Bills had a SB ring or two at this point, I wouldn’t care if they wanted to build sustainably through the draft. The Chiefs in 2022 did that, they tried to take a step back on talent because they were playing with found money at that point.

 

We aren’t in that same situation. We are rapidly approaching Josh’s 30s and our biggest game was getting blown out in the conference championship once. We don’t have time for another pick #30 to take 3-4 years to figure out if they are worth $25M. We really don’t.

[Rocbillsfan1]

I say go for it. The Bills gotta get 1 Super Bowl win. I’m all for it even if there’s a slim chance. If I’m the Browns I’d be willing to move on from him and really start this team over from scratch. 

[billsfan89]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

I honestly think you can. 
 

Draft capital is completely overrated. 

The Rams have had 1 first round pick since 2017. They have had the 7th best record in the NFL during that span, have had multiple playoff appearances, been to two SB’s and won 1.

 

I don’t know where you see the massive trades working out only for the team getting picks. The Rams won a Super Bowl with an “eff them picks” mentality.

 

Listen, if the Bills had a SB ring or two at this point, I wouldn’t care if they wanted to build sustainably through the draft. The Chiefs in 2022 did that, they tried to take a step back on talent because they were playing with found money at that point.

 

We aren’t in that same situation. We are rapidly approaching Josh’s 30s and our biggest game was getting blown out in the conference championship once. We don’t have time for another pick #30 to take 3-4 years to figure out if they are worth $25M. We really don’t.

 

The Rams ***** them picks mentality was honestly a complete outlier and I don't think it is a method that works most of the time. Look at the Dolphins, they traded for all these big names including trading first round picks for Hill and Chubb and it resulted in a very narrow window to even win a division that didn't even work. 

 

I asked Chat GPT to give me a list of a non-QB player being traded for at least 1 first round pick since 2000. I ranked them into bust, boom or somewhere in the middle. Seems like the results shed light that it's a 50/50 proposition. 

 

Here are some examples of it not working since 2000. These are qualified as players who just didn't even come close to justifying the production needed to make trading a first worth it. 

1. Percy Harvin trade to Seattle
2. Joey Galloway to Dallas (happened in 2000)
3. Jamal Adams to Seattle
4. Roy Williams to Dallas
5. Revis to the Bucs
6. Chubb to the Dolphins

Here are some other examples where it maybe wasn't a complete bust but the results weren't great either. These ones are somewhere in-between as I think you could say getting 1-2 good years out of a player might be worth it esp if you turn around and trade the player for some sort of return. 

1. Amari Cooper to Dallas (two 1k seasons before Cooper was traded for a lot less, not bad but not what you want to get when you make a trade like that) 
2. Khalil Mack to Chicago (had a fantastic 2018 but his next 3 seasons were not as great only had one double digit sack season)
3. Devante Adams to the Raiders (had a fantastic 2022 and a good but not great 2023 but was traded for a lesser pick due to organizational dysfunction) 
4. Ricky Williams to the Dolphins (had two very good years with the Fins then imploded due to off the field issues and then put in a third good season way down the line) 
5. Brandin Cooks to the Rams (traded twice for a first, this time he had one good year with the Rams before a regression his second year and being traded for a discount).
6. Keyshawn Johnson to the Bucs (Had a couple of good seasons before flaming out this one may be argued that it was a hit)

Examples where it worked well for the team trading the picks 

1. Stefon Diggs (He was great here for 3 seasons and even good to start 2023 before it imploded, return on the trade to get him while a discount wasn't bad)
2. Laremy Tunsil (He has been a stud tackle for many seasons despite the high cost he came with he's delivered on his end)
3. Jalen Ramsey to the Rams (He's always rated highly, personally I don't think he's that good but I will be charitable and say this worked out)
4. Tyreke Hill to the Dolphins (Back to back elite seasons a down year this year but he's still a good player)
5. Brandin Cooks to the Pats (rented him for one season where he put up 1k yards and then traded him for a first to the Rams)
6. Orlando Brown Jr to the Chiefs (rented him for two seasons where he was strongly productive before he left in free agency)

The teams that made the trade went on to win the Super Bowl three times (Bucs with Johnson, Rams with Ramsey, and Chiefs with Brown) no other team won a Super Bowl with a non-QB player traded for a first since 2000. The Rams and Pats both lost a Super Bowl with Cooks as a key contributor. So it's not a guarantee to lead to contention. 

 

TLDR: Seems like it is a 50/50 proposition to make such a big trade. I understand the feeling of urgency to win with Josh sooner rather than later. But sometimes I think you can also make foolish moves that cost you a chance to contend bankrupting picks and your cap by making such trades. Given how good the Bills are at drafting esp in recent drafts I would rather the team build through the draft and supplement with cheaper mercenaries 

[Thrivefourfive]

On 1/4/2025 at 3:39 PM, DCofNC said:

Nobody wants AJE in return, just keep him and that issue is solved, but it’s all just silly to think Beane would give up all that to bring on that contract he would demand on top of it. They would end up w him and Allen accounting for 100M a year after Allen’s new deal.

And when are we paying Rousseau, Before next year?

[DCofNC]

1 minute ago, Thrivefourfive said:

And when are we paying Rousseau, Before next year?

Well, I’d guess you wouldn’t be if you got Garrett. 

[Thrivefourfive]

Just now, DCofNC said:

Well, I’d guess you wouldn’t be if you got Garrett. 

I don’t like that very much. I don’t like that very much at all

[DCofNC]

1 minute ago, Thrivefourfive said:

I don’t like that very much. I don’t like that very much at all

Well the two of them would cost more annually than the entire line right now, soooo

[Thrivefourfive]

1 minute ago, DCofNC said:

Well the two of them would cost more annually than the entire line right now, soooo

which is saying something 

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The Rams ***** them picks mentality was honestly a complete outlier and I don't think it is a method that works most of the time. Look at the Dolphins, they traded for all these big names including trading first round picks for Hill and Chubb and it resulted in a very narrow window to even win a division that didn't even work. 

 

I asked Chat GPT to give me a list of a non-QB player being traded for at least 1 first round pick since 2000. I ranked them into bust, boom or somewhere in the middle. Seems like the results shed light that it's a 50/50 proposition. 

 

Here are some examples of it not working since 2000. These are qualified as players who just didn't even come close to justifying the production needed to make trading a first worth it. 

1. Percy Harvin trade to Seattle
2. Joey Galloway to Dallas (happened in 2000)
3. Jamal Adams to Seattle
4. Roy Williams to Dallas
5. Revis to the Bucs
6. Chubb to the Dolphins

Here are some other examples where it maybe wasn't a complete bust but the results weren't great either. These ones are somewhere in-between as I think you could say getting 1-2 good years out of a player might be worth it esp if you turn around and trade the player for some sort of return. 

1. Amari Cooper to Dallas (two 1k seasons before Cooper was traded for a lot less, not bad but not what you want to get when you make a trade like that) 
2. Khalil Mack to Chicago (had a fantastic 2018 but his next 3 seasons were not as great only had one double digit sack season)
3. Devante Adams to the Raiders (had a fantastic 2022 and a good but not great 2023 but was traded for a lesser pick due to organizational dysfunction) 
4. Ricky Williams to the Dolphins (had two very good years with the Fins then imploded due to off the field issues and then put in a third good season way down the line) 
5. Brandin Cooks to the Rams (traded twice for a first, this time he had one good year with the Rams before a regression his second year and being traded for a discount).
6. Keyshawn Johnson to the Bucs (Had a couple of good seasons before flaming out this one may be argued that it was a hit)

Examples where it worked well for the team trading the picks 

1. Stefon Diggs (He was great here for 3 seasons and even good to start 2023 before it imploded, return on the trade to get him while a discount wasn't bad)
2. Laremy Tunsil (He has been a stud tackle for many seasons despite the high cost he came with he's delivered on his end)
3. Jalen Ramsey to the Rams (He's always rated highly, personally I don't think he's that good but I will be charitable and say this worked out)
4. Tyreke Hill to the Dolphins (Back to back elite seasons a down year this year but he's still a good player)
5. Brandin Cooks to the Pats (rented him for one season where he put up 1k yards and then traded him for a first to the Rams)
6. Orlando Brown Jr to the Chiefs (rented him for two seasons where he was strongly productive before he left in free agency)

The teams that made the trade went on to win the Super Bowl three times (Bucs with Johnson, Rams with Ramsey, and Chiefs with Brown) no other team won a Super Bowl with a non-QB player traded for a first since 2000. The Rams and Pats both lost a Super Bowl with Cooks as a key contributor. So it's not a guarantee to lead to contention. 

 

TLDR: Seems like it is a 50/50 proposition to make such a big trade. I understand the feeling of urgency to win with Josh sooner rather than later. But sometimes I think you can also make foolish moves that cost you a chance to contend bankrupting picks and your cap by making such trades. Given how good the Bills are at drafting esp in recent drafts I would rather the team build through the draft and supplement with cheaper mercenaries 

Given how good the Bills are at drafting?

 

Man we just have very different opinions on the strengths of this regime. They are very good at finding role players. They do not hit on stars. Josh is their only one on the roster drafted by Beane. They can still do that without first round picks (in fact that’s where we are the best at it)

 

your list is full of teams getting appreciably better 2/3 times. Of course, there are some duds. There are no guarantees with the draft either. 
 

Trading 2 firsts and losing in the Super Bowl would be the greatest year of Josh’s career thus far.

[HappyDays]

I'm still a no on trading a ton of capital to Garrett and then handing him a massive contract. I'm beyond believing that this defense is ever going to be the thing that gets us a Super Bowl. Of course that doesn't mean ignore the defense entirely. But our biggest investments should be used to support the best thing our franchise has going. Give me a stacked offense that can score at will with just an average playoff defense and I'm happy.

[Estro]

I'd give 2 1sts in a heart beat.

I'd probably give 2 1sts and a 2nd.

3 1sts is where I start to back off....thinking it's. A bit too steep of a price

[QLBillsFan]

30 minutes ago, Estro said:

I'd give 2 1sts in a heart beat.

I'd probably give 2 1sts and a 2nd.

3 1sts is where I start to back off....thinking it's. A bit too steep of a price

I think at 30 with some wear on the tires… 1st is about it for me. Big contract with some baggage on the wrong side of his peak. Maybe 2 elite years left. But that’s just me, I could be wrong 😆

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

Well, I’d guess you wouldn’t be if you got Garrett. 

That makes no sense. He’s 5 years younger and comes at about half the price. Von and his contract will be gone. So the Bills potentially could do both. No more than a first round pick, otherwise too much. 

Edited Monday at 03:47 AM by QLBillsFan

[QLBillsFan]

On 1/4/2025 at 6:52 PM, colin said:

Jarred Allen was 2 or 3 years younger and cost a 1 and 2 3s a while back.  He was also the NFL sack leader at the time.  Has Garret ever been the sack leader?

 

Based on the above, I'd think you could get Garrett for a first, a second, and a later pick or picks in the following draft.

 

I don't think Cleveland is looking to move him, but they might have to consider that kind of value, especially as they will need a QB and to rebuild some.

 

I obv wish we got him prior to the deadline (altho hilariously maybe we don't lose a other game all season with him, which just means the Rams game, but we'd not even be the 1 seed!) but unless another top pass rusher is there, I'd do it this off season.

 

I think there are a couple 1 techs we could sign who will be available to compliment Garrett, Ed, Groot as our starting four.  MCDs system would look a lot better and our line backers would fill up the stat sheet.

 

Not to mention our third down d would improve from what, 29 or so, to say 12-16 at the worst.

Jared Allen was traded in 2008. I think the NFL has changed a bit. I think with the massive contracts big trades don’t happen as frequently. 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Given how good the Bills are at drafting?

 

Man we just have very different opinions on the strengths of this regime. They are very good at finding role players. They do not hit on stars. Josh is their only one on the roster drafted by Beane. They can still do that without first round picks (in fact that’s where we are the best at it)

 

your list is full of teams getting appreciably better 2/3 times. Of course, there are some duds. There are no guarantees with the draft either. 
 

Trading 2 firsts and losing in the Super Bowl would be the greatest year of Josh’s career thus far.

James Cook might argue with that🤷🏻‍♂️.. DD also but not BB pick. 

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Given how good the Bills are at drafting?

 

Man we just have very different opinions on the strengths of this regime. They are very good at finding role players. They do not hit on stars. Josh is their only one on the roster drafted by Beane. They can still do that without first round picks (in fact that’s where we are the best at it)

 

your list is full of teams getting appreciably better 2/3 times. Of course, there are some duds. There are no guarantees with the draft either. 
 

Trading 2 firsts and losing in the Super Bowl would be the greatest year of Josh’s career thus far.

Honestly, I’m not so sure that Beane has actually hit on any stars - Cook might get there - other than Allen. The only other players from the McBeane era that hit a star level were drafted before Beane got here - Tre White, Dawkins, Milano. Aside from Cook, the only guys Beane has drafted that look like they could potentially be top 5 at their position are Spencer Brown, Torrence, and Groot… and Groot looks like he’ll never be a top pass rusher without help on the D-line despite being a dominant run defender at his position. 
 

This team needs a dominant 1-tech like Dexter Lawrence or a dominant LDE like Garret, Hendrickson, etc to get guys like Oliver and Groot the 1 v 1’s they can reliably win. I agree that it’s worth some serious investment in cap and or draft capital to make that happen. As long as Allen is healthy this team isn’t going to draft in the top 20, so it’s trade, FA, or a red flag draft gamble to procure the physical talent needed there.