Bills expected to have 2 extra 5th round compensatory picks in 2025

[JGMcD2]

I expect Beane to move up in Round 1 and possibly Round 2 with all of those extra late round picks. 
 

It’s a bummer that Minnesota pick is going to be as late or later than our original Round 2 pick. Beane knows only 6-7 rookies can make this roster next year. 
 

Then I’d imagine he moved back a few times in the late rounds to accumulate more late rounders for 2026. 
 

These position groups seem to be pretty much set:

 

QB, RB (Assuming Ty Johnson brought back), TE, OL and LB. 
 

Needs:

 

WR, DE, DT and CB/S

[Albany,n.y.]

I wouldn't count on these picks.  The Bills signed free agents too.  The SI writer seems to have forgotten the Bills FA signings & is only looking at the Bills FA losses. 

[Kirby Jackson]

28 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Between the existing roster (not pegged to lose too many key free agents), free agency and the draft, I truly think that Beane can make this roster even stronger heading into the 2025 season.  Which is kind of scary for the rest of the league.

No doubt!! The talent on this roster is average maybe even a touch below. If you remove Josh and take a league average QB, like Purdy, they win like 6 or 7 games. What this team has is an edge. They play with a chip. Raise the talent level and keep this edge. If that happens they could be dominant for the forseeable future.

[Augie]

43 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The draft is one of my favorite sporting events of the year. I’m already dozens of mock drafts in 😂😂. With 5 picks in rounds 4 and 5, it’s realistic to flip that into a 3rd & 2 4ths. The Bills SHOULD be able to pick 6 times in the first 135 picks. They’d still have more picks but it’s realistic to expect 6+ guys that’ll actually play (plus the 6ths). They have a chance to get a high end WR, fix the DL while adding depth there, add secondary depth and just select some guys that slip. It’s a GREAT opportunity to raise the talent level of a team that, despite winning A LOT of football games, still only had 2 pro bowlers. 

 

Yes, let’s fire that bum who coaches those bums. 

 

Some people are still whining while conveniently forgetting this was supposed to be a difficult transition year. We may flame out in the playoffs, but I’m happy with our overall season to date. I’ll look forward to seeing some of the younger guys this week. I think our backup OLine may be better than what we fielded a few years ago when we were picking up guys at the final cut to start for us.. 

[Big Turk]

1 minute ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I wouldn't count on these picks.  The Bills signed free agents too.  The SI writer seems to have forgotten the Bills FA signings & is only looking at the Bills FA losses. 

 

Taken into account:

 

Key free-agent losses: Gabe Davis (Jaguars), Leonard Floyd (49ers), Tyrel Dodson (Seahawks), Dane Jackson (Panthers).

 

Key free-agent additions: Curtis Samuel, Austin Johnson.

 

Very easy projections here; the Bill lose four qualifying free agents and sign two. The deals for both Davis (from the Jags) and Floyd (from the 49ers) are substantially higher in APY than those given to qualifying free agents by the Bills; Samuel and Johnson end up canceling out the deals signed by Dodson and Jackson. It's worth noting that there is an outside shot the departure of Tim Settle could bring another seventh-round selection if he takes on a larger than expected role with the Texans.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Did someone say comp picks? 
 

Are they acquiring Joe Burrow?😂

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, The Wiz said:

Good, we draft really well at the back of the draft.

Except for DL....

[Warriorspikes51]

so future considerations that won't exist once Rog steps in 

[RiotAct]

59 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The draft is one of my favorite sporting events of the year. I’m already dozens of mock drafts in 😂😂. With 5 picks in rounds 4 and 5, it’s realistic to flip that into a 3rd & 2 4ths. The Bills SHOULD be able to pick 6 times in the first 135 picks. They’d still have more picks but it’s realistic to expect 6+ guys that’ll actually play (plus the 6ths). They have a chance to get a high end WR, fix the DL while adding depth there, add secondary depth and just select some guys that slip. It’s a GREAT opportunity to raise the talent level of a team that, despite winning A LOT of football games, still only had 2 pro bowlers. 

we’re on to New England!

[BillsFanForever19]

31 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I wouldn't count on these picks.  The Bills signed free agents too.  The SI writer seems to have forgotten the Bills FA signings & is only looking at the Bills FA losses. 

 

The signings that cancelled out picks are already figured into the calculation. We only made 3 signings that qualifed for cancellation. Those being Curtis Samuel, Austin Johnson, and Mack Hollins. Everyone else we signed did not qualify as they were league minimum signings, under 2.5m, and/or players that were cut from other teams that weren't unrestricted free agents on lapsed contracts. Those signings cancelled out a possible 6th Round Pick for Tyrel Dodson (Curtis Samuel signing), a 7th Rounder for Dane Jackson (Austin Johnson signing), and a 7th Rounder for Tim Settle (Mack Hollins signing).

 

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

Edited Friday at 11:26 PM by BillsFanForever19

[The Wiz]

46 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Except for DL....

Well they are bad at that 1st to 7th.

 

I do think Solomon and Carter might end up being something good though.

[Sierra Foothills]

The value of the picks shouldn't drop due to poor performance or injury of the players we've lost.

 

Why should WE be penalized if some other team makes a decision and it doesn't work out FOR THEM?

 

JMO.

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

 

Taken into account:

 

Key free-agent losses: Gabe Davis (Jaguars), Leonard Floyd (49ers), Tyrel Dodson (Seahawks), Dane Jackson (Panthers).

 

Key free-agent additions: Curtis Samuel, Austin Johnson.

 

Very easy projections here; the Bill lose four qualifying free agents and sign two. The deals for both Davis (from the Jags) and Floyd (from the 49ers) are substantially higher in APY than those given to qualifying free agents by the Bills; Samuel and Johnson end up canceling out the deals signed by Dodson and Jackson. It's worth noting that there is an outside shot the departure of Tim Settle could bring another seventh-round selection if he takes on a larger than expected role with the Texans.

Is it possible Mack Hollins might count ?  Has some smallish bonuses to come and has had a reasonable year ..

[Freddie's Dead]

bull####.  It states clearly in the NFL rules that the Bills are excluded from compensatory picks, which get absorbed by the Cheats.  It's right there in black and white....

[JerseyBills]

Wow. We'll have a tremendous amount of ammo. 

2 2s 2 3s 2 4s 2 5s and 2 6s 

 

Plenty of artillery to maneuver however they want 

[WotAGuy]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

 

Currently, our expected picks are as follows:

 

Round 1

Round 2

Round 2 (from Minnesota Vikings for Stefon Diggs and our 2025 5th Round Pick)

Round 4 

Round 4 (from Chicago Bears for a 2024 5th Round Pick)

Round 5 (Compensatory for Gabe Davis)

Round 5 (Compensatory for Leonard Floyd)

Round 6

Round 6 (from New York Giants for Boogie Basham)

Round 6 (from Cleveland Browns with Amari Cooper for our 2025 3rd Round Pick)

That Round 4 from the Bears for last year’s 5th could be similarly flipped into a 3 in 2026, then a 2 in 2027, and a 1 in 2028. Boom, we draft Josh Allen Jr. 

[gonzo1105]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

Is it possible Mack Hollins might count ?  Has some smallish bonuses to come and has had a reasonable year ..

He and Settle now count in the formula. Neither of them were originally and cancel each other out 

20 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Wow. We'll have a tremendous amount of ammo. 

2 2s 2 3s 2 4s 2 5s and 2 6s 

 

Plenty of artillery to maneuver however they want 

We don’t have 2 3s we have zero 

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I would believe it. Initially, it was supposed to be a 4th and a 5th for them. A 4th for Davis and a 5th for Floyd. My guess is it dropped to a 5th bc Davis ended up being lost for the season in Week 11. 

 

The Edmunds pick dropped from a 3rd to a 4th last year bc they changed the rules of the compensatory formula on a dime to take into account void year money and carefully written contracts that skirted comp pick cancellations. That in conjunction with Edmunds missing a couple games made the pick come in less than expected.

 

This years projections took the new rules into account when they were made. We're already getting less than expected bc of Davis' injury with 2 5th's instead of the initial projection of a 4 and a 5. I really don't see us getting less than that or them changing the rules to be more strict on a dime once again. It was too much of a headache for the league last season dealing with all the appeals. And generally when they make an unpopular change that makes things more difficult on teams one year, they take it easier the following year (ie Cap figures coming under unexpected one year are made up for the next).

 

Currently, our expected picks are as follows:

 

Round 1

Round 2

Round 2 (from Minnesota Vikings for Stefon Diggs and our 2025 5th Round Pick)

Round 4 

Round 4 (from Chicago Bears for a 2024 5th Round Pick)

Round 5 (Compensatory for Gabe Davis)

Round 5 (Compensatory for Leonard Floyd)

Round 6

Round 6 (from New York Giants for Boogie Basham)

Round 6 (from Cleveland Browns with Amari Cooper for our 2025 3rd Round Pick)

I would trade all of that and a 2026 1st for a premier pass rusher.

[djp14150]

They were supposed to get a 3rd ….but….sorry…we gave all our picks to the cheats

[djp14150]

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

I expect Beane to move up in Round 1 and possibly Round 2 with all of those extra late round picks. 
 

It’s a bummer that Minnesota pick is going to be as late or later than our original Round 2 pick. Beane knows only 6-7 rookies can make this roster next year. 
 

Then I’d imagine he moved back a few times in the late rounds to accumulate more late rounders for 2026. 
 

These position groups seem to be pretty much set:

 

QB, RB (Assuming Ty Johnson brought back), TE, OL and LB. 
 

Needs:

 

WR, DE, DT and CB/S

 

Draft order —- 

 

19-24 those that exit in wild card round

25-28 division exits

29-30conf final exits 

31 SB loser

32 SB winner 

 

if Minnesota L and Philly W and Buffalo W this weekend they will have the same record 

 

sorting is then by strength of schedule 

 

all 3 are close and order will depend on what their non common teams do by opponents wins 

 

BUF— DET, BAL, KC. 127 +1 ( DET W) = 128+ BAL+KC

PHL—GB LAR, JAX    125 = 125+ GB+ Rams+JAX 

MIN- Jets, Giants, ATL. 128 +2 ( L to DET, giants L to Philly ) 130+ ATL

 

IF BAL and KC W and ATL L then BUF and MIN would be tied so if they exit same time it will be a coin flip to decide pick order then it flips each round , BUF could be tied with Philly too under different scenarios 

 

on pick value in trade

 

if Buffalo makes the SB it’s around  600. If Vikings exit in WC being a road team their pick could be around 350 pts

 

those 2 picks in a trade would get you a 17-19 pick