The 2024 Bills are the 2022 Chiefs

[FireChans]

48 minutes ago, The Cincinnati Kid said:

I don’t know.
 

I didn’t really read it but your stats kinda made me think “naw.”

Good post.

 

i didn’t really read it, but i agree.

[SaulGoodman]

I'd say Buffalo's skill players are definitely better overall. Remember that MVS was cut from this Bills team after doing zilch. Their tackles are better too. 

 

I don't think the '22 Chiefs roster was that skilled. Kelce had a great year, but the rest of the skill players were mediocre. And the defense was average at best because it was very green and inexperienced. 

 

I think Bienemy had an underrated impact. The offense immediately took a step back when he was replaced by Nagy. 

[Pete]

10 hours ago, FireChans said:

Good post.

 

i didn’t really read it, but i agree.

Nothing like an uninformed opinion giving you their opinion

[HOUSE]

A well thought out and highly scientific thread

Kudos 

[ShakAttack]

Nice comparison, but just one thing I'd like to point out is that the 22 Chiefs had a MUCH easier path to the Super Bowl than we will have.

 

Bye > Jags > Bengals

 

I REALLY hope we don't see Cinci in the Wild Card round because if we do, that may as well be the toughest path to the SB I've ever seen for any team during Josh Allen's career.

 

I mean... Cinci > Ravens > Chiefs... it's like having to win an AFCCG 3 times in a row!

[machine gun kelly]

On 1/2/2025 at 4:30 PM, FireChans said:

I know I know, we don't have Andy Reid or Chris Jones or Travis Kelce.

 

But let's look at the similarities:

 

Major questions surrounding QB after trading away their best WR.

QB then plays at an MVP level, and arguably the best blend of big play and smart play of their career with a less than star studded supporting cast

Questionable defenses

 

Let's look at:

 

Mahomes' 2022 top 6 pass catchers

 

Kelce

Juju

MVS
Mckinnon

Watson

Gray

 

Josh's 2024 top 6 pass catchers

 

Shakir

Coleman

Kincaid

Hollins

Knox

Cooper

 

Not too much difference there, outside of Kelce.

 

Now let's compare their numbers and the offenses numbers:

 

2022 Mahomes

5608 total yards, 45 TD's, 12 INT's, 5 fumbles, 105.2 passer rating, 79 QBR 14-3 record

 

2024 Allen

4262 total yards, 41 TD's, 6 INT's, 5 fumbles, 101.4 passer rating, 76.7 QBR 13-3 record

 

Obviously yardage is the starkest difference, but the 2024 Bills were much run heavier, with Mahomes passing 165 more times. And they did have Kelce as well, as above.

 

Now let's look at their offenses:

 

2024 Bills offense

31.8 PPG (2nd in NFL)

5846 yards (9th in NFL)

 

2022 Chiefs offense

29.2 PPG (1st in NFL)

7032 yards (1st in NFL)

 

This Bills offense, with worse talent IMO put up more points than that SB winning, MVP having team. Yardage again the biggest difference.

 

And now finally, let's look at the defense.  There is a lot said about the style of play the Chiefs have now, but their 2022 defense was most certainly not elite.

 

2022 Chiefs

16th in points

11th in yards

11th in yards per drive

21st in points per drive

 

2024 Bills

11th in points

20th in yards

26th in yards per drive

16th in points per drive

 

So there you have it. Both teams had offseason departures in talent and honestly questionable regular season defenses, but with their QB's playing at an MVP level, the best year in their careers, they managed to post one of the best records in the conference.

 

Now its time to see if history can repeat itself and Allen can continue his flawless play into the postseason, and the defense can step up when it needs to.

Chans, thanks for putting so much work into this thread.  You’re a bit salty at times, but you do proved valuable info.  Others have brought up the variables that will affect the Bills end of playoffs, but they have the firepower and coaching to do it.  A lot has to break our way.

[ShakAttack]

One more comment regarding the comparison between 2024 Bills Defense and 2022 Chiefs Defense.

 

While it is true neither defense was stellar during the respective regular seasons, I'll point this out:

 

As I recall, the 2022 playoffs is when the Chiefs D really turned the corner.  In the playoffs, they were a much better defense under Spags than they were during the regular season.  They ended up carrying this momentum into the 2023 season, when defense emerged as the strength of their team, which is also true for most of this year's regular season.

 

In contrast, we all know about the history of our Bills playoff defense, which is quite the opposite of the 2022 Chiefs D.  Despite the greater quality of opposing offenses, KC defense was noticeably BETTER in the playoffs.

 

Will the 2024 Bills defense finally flip the switch when the playoffs begin?  Or will they continue the disappointing trend from years past?  We are about to find out...

 

A good example of Chiefs D turning the corner in the 2022 playoffs is their AFCCCG win over the Bengals.  Make no mistake, DEFENSE (especially Chris Jones) is the #1 reason they closed out and won that game, NOT Mahomes.  Thanks to the Chiefs D, it was tough sledding for Burrow ALL GAME.  He had to earn everything; there were no easy buckets unlike 1 week prior vs. the Bills defense.  The Bengals actually possessed the ball at the end of the 4th quarter and, as I recall, they were one first down conversion away from getting into game winning FG range and being able to likely milk the clock all the way down to the FG attempt, BUT Chris Jones sacked Burrow on 3rd down, and that was essentially the ball game.

 

Just one week earlier we watched the Bengals march up and down the field on us every time they possessed the ball.  Mixon was getting 5+ yards a pop, Burrow was finding wide open receivers every time he dropped back (and we had no pass rush).  It was just "pick your poison".  We could not stop anything they chose to do.  I mean, despite what the regular season stats told us, KC's defense was far superior to ours, and this year, we can't expect Allen to get us to the super bowl on 3 shoot out wins.  At some point our D is going to need to step up if this is going to be the year...

[Rew]

On 1/2/2025 at 4:30 PM, FireChans said:

I know I know, we don't have Andy Reid or Chris Jones or Travis Kelce.

 

But let's look at the similarities:

 

Major questions surrounding QB after trading away their best WR.

QB then plays at an MVP level, and arguably the best blend of big play and smart play of their career with a less than star studded supporting cast

Questionable defenses

 

Let's look at:

 

Mahomes' 2022 top 6 pass catchers

 

Kelce

Juju

MVS
Mckinnon

Watson

Gray

 

Josh's 2024 top 6 pass catchers

 

Shakir

Coleman

Kincaid

Hollins

Knox

Cooper

 

Not too much difference there, outside of Kelce.

 

Now let's compare their numbers and the offenses numbers:

 

2022 Mahomes

5608 total yards, 45 TD's, 12 INT's, 5 fumbles, 105.2 passer rating, 79 QBR 14-3 record

 

2024 Allen

4262 total yards, 41 TD's, 6 INT's, 5 fumbles, 101.4 passer rating, 76.7 QBR 13-3 record

 

Obviously yardage is the starkest difference, but the 2024 Bills were much run heavier, with Mahomes passing 165 more times. And they did have Kelce as well, as above.

 

Now let's look at their offenses:

 

2024 Bills offense

31.8 PPG (2nd in NFL)

5846 yards (9th in NFL)

 

2022 Chiefs offense

29.2 PPG (1st in NFL)

7032 yards (1st in NFL)

 

This Bills offense, with worse talent IMO put up more points than that SB winning, MVP having team. Yardage again the biggest difference.

 

And now finally, let's look at the defense.  There is a lot said about the style of play the Chiefs have now, but their 2022 defense was most certainly not elite.

 

2022 Chiefs

16th in points

11th in yards

11th in yards per drive

21st in points per drive

 

2024 Bills

11th in points

20th in yards

26th in yards per drive

16th in points per drive

 

So there you have it. Both teams had offseason departures in talent and honestly questionable regular season defenses, but with their QB's playing at an MVP level, the best year in their careers, they managed to post one of the best records in the conference.

 

Now its time to see if history can repeat itself and Allen can continue his flawless play into the postseason, and the defense can step up when it needs to.

You're not the only one to connect these dots.  The similarities extend into how prior seasons played out, how the off-season played out, expectations coming into the year, having a middling defense on regular season, and more.

 

Obviously the Chiefs capped it off by the Defense stepping up in playoffs and ended as champs.  Hopefully the similarities continue .

 

 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

You’re a bit salty at times, but you do proved valuable info

Can we put this on my tombstone?

[machine gun kelly]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

Can we put this on my tombstone?

Sounds good to me Tex.