The 2024 Bills are the 2022 Chiefs

[FireChans]

I know I know, we don't have Andy Reid or Chris Jones or Travis Kelce.

 

But let's look at the similarities:

 

Major questions surrounding QB after trading away their best WR.

QB then plays at an MVP level, and arguably the best blend of big play and smart play of their career with a less than star studded supporting cast

Questionable defenses

 

Let's look at:

 

Mahomes' 2022 top 6 pass catchers

 

Kelce

Juju

MVS
Mckinnon

Watson

Gray

 

Josh's 2024 top 6 pass catchers

 

Shakir

Coleman

Kincaid

Hollins

Knox

Cooper

 

Not too much difference there, outside of Kelce.

 

Now let's compare their numbers and the offenses numbers:

 

2022 Mahomes

5608 total yards, 45 TD's, 12 INT's, 5 fumbles, 105.2 passer rating, 79 QBR 14-3 record

 

2024 Allen

4262 total yards, 41 TD's, 6 INT's, 5 fumbles, 101.4 passer rating, 76.7 QBR 13-3 record

 

Obviously yardage is the starkest difference, but the 2024 Bills were much run heavier, with Mahomes passing 165 more times. And they did have Kelce as well, as above.

 

Now let's look at their offenses:

 

2024 Bills offense

31.8 PPG (2nd in NFL)

5846 yards (9th in NFL)

 

2022 Chiefs offense

29.2 PPG (1st in NFL)

7032 yards (1st in NFL)

 

This Bills offense, with worse talent IMO put up more points than that SB winning, MVP having team. Yardage again the biggest difference.

 

And now finally, let's look at the defense.  There is a lot said about the style of play the Chiefs have now, but their 2022 defense was most certainly not elite.

 

2022 Chiefs

16th in points

11th in yards

11th in yards per drive

21st in points per drive

 

2024 Bills

11th in points

20th in yards

26th in yards per drive

16th in points per drive

 

So there you have it. Both teams had offseason departures in talent and honestly questionable regular season defenses, but with their QB's playing at an MVP level, the best year in their careers, they managed to post one of the best records in the conference.

 

Now its time to see if history can repeat itself and Allen can continue his flawless play into the postseason, and the defense can step up when it needs to.

[Warriorspikes51]

Wow Mahomes  5,608 total yards is crazy  how did they only have 29.2 ppg instead of like 33-34 

[ImpactCorey]

Wow!  Great analysis.  Any idea what strength of schedule looked like?

[Governor]

24 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Wow Mahomes  5,608 total yards is crazy  how did they only have 29.2 ppg instead of like 33-34 

Guessing but the red zone offense has probably been less than stellar the last few years and that’s why they were always calling trick plays down there to make up for it. That and not being able to run the ball.

Edited Thursday at 09:57 PM by Governor

[Sojourner]

Someone at work made a statement when we were watching the Michigan/Bama game. Now, not verbatim but it went something along the lines of:

 

Mahomes is no longer head and shoulders above the other guys in the league; Allen/Jackson/Burrow/Hurts (lol@hurts). He had one of the best peaks you’ll see at the footbal position (‘18-‘22) but has come back to “normal”. 
 

Whilst I don’t agree with it entirely, I do feel his point about those 5 years were incredible. It was Pat and everyone else. Josh was the only one close. I’ll give it another year before agreeing with the rest as he’s barely in the prime of his career but looking at this year and last year, super bowls removed, he’s not exactly TB12 territory where he’s taking subpar players and elevating the offense to insane proportions. 
 

The only guy I’ve seen do that on Brady levels was Cam Newton, love him or hate him, on that Super Bowl 50 run. It was Greg Olsen and pretty much nothing else to throw to. Ted Ginn, Cotchery, Funchess & Corey Brown. Yeesh. 
 

These last two season the Chiefs have had great, not elite, play by Mahomes. The difference is the defense has made it easier for them in crunch time situations. Can you lean on Mahomes? Absolutely. He’s still one of, if not the best to play the game right now but winning another, record setting, Super Bowl will be an absolute team effort from the Chiefs; as it is any team. 

The Bills? Josh has taken a backseat by design in comparison to other years. That’s the difference. The other one being if we get a Lombardi I hate to say it but it will be a likely be an effort by Josh and the Bills. 

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

2022 Mahomes

5608 total yards, 45 TD's, 12 INT's, 5 fumbles, 105.2 passer rating, 79 QBR 14-3 record

Is that accurate?  Those are crazy numbers.  

[Kelly to Allen]

This is a good comp. The 96 Packers are similar although their defense was better. 

Just now, Doc Brown said:

Is that accurate?  Those are crazy numbers.  

Mahomes 22 season is a top 5 all time year by a QB imo. Especially considering the context of no Hill and very young defense 

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Is that accurate?  Those are crazy numbers.  

Do you think I would post something inaccurate??????

[ProcessTruster]

I am betting Josh goes superman this tournament season and gets the Bills through the NFL tournament.   

 

But a bunch of uncontrollable ***** could happen in one game (Josh gets hurt, LBs go down one by one, refs sh-t the bed, Bass loses his mind)   and we're out. 

 

 Who knows in a single elimination tournament.   Complete crapshoot.  

[Kelly to Allen]

2 hours ago, Sojourner said:

Someone at work made a statement when we were watching the Michigan/Bama game. Now, not verbatim but it went something along the lines of:

 

Mahomes is no longer head and shoulders above the other guys in the league; Allen/Jackson/Burrow/Hurts (lol@hurts). He had one of the best peaks you’ll see at the footbal position (‘18-‘22) but has come back to “normal”. 
 

Whilst I don’t agree with it entirely, I do feel his point about those 5 years were incredible. It was Pat and everyone else. Josh was the only one close. I’ll give it another year before agreeing with the rest as he’s barely in the prime of his career but looking at this year and last year, super bowls removed, he’s not exactly TB12 territory where he’s taking subpar players and elevating the offense to insane proportions. 
 

The only guy I’ve seen do that on Brady levels was Cam Newton, love him or hate him, on that Super Bowl 50 run. It was Greg Olsen and pretty much nothing else to throw to. Ted Ginn, Cotchery, Funchess & Corey Brown. Yeesh. 
 

These last two season the Chiefs have had great, not elite, play by Mahomes. The difference is the defense has made it easier for them in crunch time situations. Can you lean on Mahomes? Absolutely. He’s still one of, if not the best to play the game right now but winning another, record setting, Super Bowl will be an absolute team effort from the Chiefs; as it is any team. 

The Bills? Josh has taken a backseat by design in comparison to other years. That’s the difference. The other one being if we get a Lombardi I hate to say it but it will be a likely be an effort by Josh and the Bills. 

We'll see in the playoffs man. Mahomes turned it on in the playoffs last year and had imo his best playoff 

 

I will never doubt mahomes greatness in the playoffs and won't feel comfortable until the clock is zero 

[JohnNord]

What put those Chiefs over the top was a defense that allowed just 20 points in 2 playoff games.  
 

In 2023 their defense gave up 7 and 10 points in the 2 games other than Buffalo’s 24.

 

Bills are going to need the defense to step up quite a bit.  

[Buffalo03]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

I know I know, we don't have Andy Reid or Chris Jones or Travis Kelce.

 

But let's look at the similarities:

 

Major questions surrounding QB after trading away their best WR.

QB then plays at an MVP level, and arguably the best blend of big play and smart play of their career with a less than star studded supporting cast

Questionable defenses

 

Let's look at:

 

Mahomes' 2022 top 6 pass catchers

 

Kelce

Juju

MVS
Mckinnon

Watson

Gray

 

Josh's 2024 top 6 pass catchers

 

Shakir

Coleman

Kincaid

Hollins

Knox

Cooper

 

Not too much difference there, outside of Kelce.

 

Now let's compare their numbers and the offenses numbers:

 

2022 Mahomes

5608 total yards, 45 TD's, 12 INT's, 5 fumbles, 105.2 passer rating, 79 QBR 14-3 record

 

2024 Allen

4262 total yards, 41 TD's, 6 INT's, 5 fumbles, 101.4 passer rating, 76.7 QBR 13-3 record

 

Obviously yardage is the starkest difference, but the 2024 Bills were much run heavier, with Mahomes passing 165 more times. And they did have Kelce as well, as above.

 

Now let's look at their offenses:

 

2024 Bills offense

31.8 PPG (2nd in NFL)

5846 yards (9th in NFL)

 

2022 Chiefs offense

29.2 PPG (1st in NFL)

7032 yards (1st in NFL)

 

This Bills offense, with worse talent IMO put up more points than that SB winning, MVP having team. Yardage again the biggest difference.

 

And now finally, let's look at the defense.  There is a lot said about the style of play the Chiefs have now, but their 2022 defense was most certainly not elite.

 

2022 Chiefs

16th in points

11th in yards

11th in yards per drive

21st in points per drive

 

2024 Bills

11th in points

20th in yards

26th in yards per drive

16th in points per drive

 

So there you have it. Both teams had offseason departures in talent and honestly questionable regular season defenses, but with their QB's playing at an MVP level, the best year in their careers, they managed to post one of the best records in the conference.

 

Now its time to see if history can repeat itself and Allen can continue his flawless play into the postseason, and the defense can step up when it needs to.

How much time did you spend looking all this up? 

[JP51]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

What put those Chiefs over the top was a defense that allowed just 20 points in 2 playoff games.  
 

In 2023 their defense gave up 7 and 10 points in the 2 games other than Buffalo’s 24.

 

Bills are going to need the defense to step up quite a bit.  

Exactly D is going to have to let Josh not have to wear a cape every play thru 4 games. 

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

Do you think I would post something inaccurate??????

That’s true.  I forgot it’s the internet.  Amazing year by him though.

[Dr.Sack]

2022 Chiefs were damn good. 

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

How much time did you spend looking all this up? 

Probably 5 minutes.

[GunnerBill]

I think the similarities in it being expected to be a slight step back year and instead their QB playing out of his kind and keeping things rolling are there.

[dma0034]

So a few things about Mahomes/Chiefs over the course of 2018-2022

1. Mahomes best stastically year was his 1st year with 50 TDs. He was put in a situation where he had arguably the best WR at the time and maybe the best TE of all time but also a defense that wasn't strong so you have to throw more (like the Bengals this year). He had 150 less passing yards than 2022 but played in one less game

2. His most impressive year is the 2022 year. They were forced to pass more because their running game wasn't great (CEH was the lead back). They utlitized a ton of screens this year and teams were slow to adjust to the new Chiefs Offense. The Two Safety shell was pretty much used to combat Mahomes and he struggled against that in 2021; then they started utilized the short passes and screens and teams still remained in the two safety shell. This is also the last year I'd consider Kelce as an elite player. In 2023 teams started going away from the 2 safety shell and without Hill being able to punish opposing teams deep the Chiefs morphed into a clock management Offense (to go with the now elite Defense). It's why they picked Worthy; but they haven't been able to hit the deep shots. Some of that is Mahomes deep accuracy (which has noticably dropped imo) and some of that is WRs not creating enough seperation. That combined with Kelce not just being open every play has led to lesser numbers for Mahomes. That said: over the course of the last 7 or so weeks they've corrected a ton of those issues. Mahomes has been playing just as well as anyone. They finally figured out (and are healthy) to have the proper WRs in the proper places

[The Cincinnati Kid]

I don’t know.
 

I didn’t really read it but your stats kinda made me think “naw.”

[Success]

On 1/2/2025 at 7:01 PM, ProcessTruster said:

I am betting Josh goes superman this tournament season and gets the Bills through the NFL tournament.   

 

But a bunch of uncontrollable ***** could happen in one game (Josh gets hurt, LBs go down one by one, refs sh-t the bed, Bass loses his mind)   and we're out. 

 

 Who knows in a single elimination tournament.   Complete crapshoot.  

 

Like everyone else - I really hated the Brady-era Pats.

 

But man, when I think about what they did.  Like, how?  It is so hard for everything to line up - health, luck, talent, et al. - to make that improbable run.  And they just kept doing it.