So, how is everyone feeling about this defense going into the playoffs?

[Beck Water]

19 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are 11th in points. 20th in yards. The reason I like 3rd down as a true signifier of the strength or otherwise of a defense is that yards and points can be influenced by field position which is not only on defense it can be indicative of O and ST too. 3rd down is how often does your D make a play when it needs to. You don't find good defenses with bad 3rd down numbers. This is not a good defense. It isn't the 31st best defense. I'm not saying that. But the fact it is 31st on 3rd down tells you it isn't a good defense. It's bottom half of the NFL.

 

Hey Gunner.  First off, wondering source of your stats?  Pro-football-reference, which is typically accurate for stats such as this, has the Bills at 29th.

Not that 29th is good, but it is a little bit higher than 31st.

Next point.  If you look at sheer number of third down conversion attempts, the Bills are 2nd in the league at 189, 2nd only to the Lions who have 174.  
The league median in 3rd down attempts is 201, so the Bills have 12 fewer attempts against them than league median.  

So one needs to think about why that is, and what that means. 

It could be bad news - that the Bills have fewer 3rd down attempts against them because they're letting teams score without needing to convert as many 3rd downs? And there could be some of that - the Bills have given up some TDs on Big Plays.  But the fact that the Bills D is 11th in points against even after giving up more than 30 points in 3 games (Rams, Vikes, Ravens) suggests that's probably not the answer.

 

It could also be a TOP issue - if the Bills were allowing opponents less TOP, they might have fewer 3rd downs.  I actually don't know where to find TOP stats, but I would think we could use # of plays as a marker for TOP, and the Bills D is smack in the middle there - 17th, 1 play to opposing D more than average.  So nope.

 

Or it could be good news.  Maybe the Bills are taking the ball away more so the opponent gets to fewer 3rd downs?  The Bills as we all know are tied for the league lead in turnovers, with 31.  So that could be an answer - if the Bills are taking the ball away there are fewer 3rd downs for the opponent to convert.

 

Anyway, I thought that was interesting.  

 

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Hey Gunner.  First off, wondering source of your stats?  Pro-football-reference, which is typically accurate for stats such as this, has the Bills at 29th.

Not that 29th is good, but it is a little bit higher than 31st.
 

 

Same place. When I looked earlier in the week it obviously hadn't updated from week 17. We were 31st ahead of just Carolina. I see Indy and Atlanta dropped in (which is understandable after their games last week). 

 

Apols I thought it was updated. 

[Beck Water]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Same place. When I looked earlier in the week it obviously hadn't updated from week 17. We were 31st ahead of just Carolina. I see Indy and Atlanta dropped in (which is understandable after their games last week). 

 

Apols I thought it was updated. 

 

Thanks.  Though wondering if you have any insignt on the other points that I raised  - that the Bills have 2nd fewest 3rd down attempts against them?

 

Why do you think that is?

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Next point.  If you look at sheer number of third down conversion attempts, the Bills are 2nd in the league at 189, 2nd only to the Lions who have 174.  
The league median in 3rd down attempts is 201, so the Bills have 12 fewer attempts against them than league median.  

So one needs to think about why that is, and what that means. 

It could be bad news - that the Bills have fewer 3rd down attempts against them because they're letting teams score without needing to convert as many 3rd downs? And there could be some of that - the Bills have given up some TDs on Big Plays.  But the fact that the Bills D is 11th in points against even after giving up more than 30 points in 3 games (Rams, Vikes, Ravens) suggests that's probably not the answer.

 

It could also be a TOP issue - if the Bills were allowing opponents less TOP, they might have fewer 3rd downs.  I actually don't know where to find TOP stats, but I would think we could use # of plays as a marker for TOP, and the Bills D is smack in the middle there - 17th, 1 play to opposing D more than average.  So nope.

 

Or it could be good news.  Maybe the Bills are taking the ball away more so the opponent gets to fewer 3rd downs?  The Bills as we all know are tied for the league lead in turnovers, with 31.  So that could be an answer - if the Bills are taking the ball away there are fewer 3rd downs for the opponent to convert.

You can look at the Bills defensive stats per drive and red zone% for answers to all your questions.

 

They are 11th in points allowed but 16th in points per drive. They are also 26th in yards per drive, 24th in plays allowed per drive, and 25th in time allowed per drive. Fifth in starting field position.

 

They are 17th in red zone percentage. They are first in TO% and 23rd in score%. They are 29th in first downs allowed.

 

The numbers are clear. Teams can and do convert on them and drive on them, (not always needing to get to third down, because again, 29th in first downs) but they stiffen up a bit in the RZ to a closer to average defense. Their raw numbers are beneficiaries from taking the ball away the best in the NFL. If they keep up the takeaways like they have been, they are average to below average. If the TOs dry up, they will just be bad.

 

It's very interesting because going back to the last 6 years, the team with the most takeaways in the NFL ranked (in points per drive):

 

1st

4th

4th

5th

3rd

1st

 

We have to force the most TO's in the NFL to maintain being smack dab league average at that stat.

Edited Friday at 07:54 PM by FireChans

[HappyDays]

Here's the most worrying stat as we enter the playoffs:

 

So on average we are allowing a FG on every single drive against playoff opponents. Considering our defense's history in the playoffs that's really concerning. 

 

The Ravens as a comparison:

 

So compared to our likely divisional round opponent we are giving up over a full point per drive more. And the Ravens have the best offense vs playoff opponents in the entire league. It's a lot to overcome. Let's hope Babich and McDermott have been sandbagging a bit and have something special planned for the playoffs.

[Magox]

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Considering we are 100% healthy going into the playoffs, I feel pretty good about it. Regardless of scheme and regular season performance.

[BillsVet]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Here's the most worrying stat as we enter the playoffs:

 

So on average we are allowing a FG on every single drive against playoff opponents. Considering our defense's history in the playoffs that's really concerning. 

 

The Ravens as a comparison:

 

So compared to our likely divisional round opponent we are giving up over a full point per drive more. And the Ravens have the best offense vs playoff opponents in the entire league. It's a lot to overcome. Let's hope Babich and McDermott have been sandbagging a bit and have something special planned for the playoffs.

 

Ravens had strongest SOV and went 7-3 against playoff teams compared to Buffalo's 5 and 2-3 record. 

 

I like that they're playing a division rival in WC round.  But also don't want to make assumptions either. 

[ngbills]

A blow out would be nice but not seeing it. I think DEN defense will come to play and it will be a close game coming down to turnovers.

 

It is an obvious thing to say but when DEN gets 2 or more takeaways they are putting up 30+ points. Ignore the KC game this week and they only hit 30 points a single time with less than two takeaways. The Bills on the other hand still put up 30 in 4 games with less than 2 takeaways. 

 

Bottom line, we don't turn the ball over we win. I think it will still be close (35-28) unless our D stops somebody like it hasn't all season. 

[ddaryl]

the Defense worries me. Mcdermott worries me, throw in Bass and that's my trifecta of worries going into the playoffs.

I hope to see some new wrinkles that are effective on the D side, but my heart will be in my throat the whole playoff run. 

[pi2000]

must score 30+ every game to have a chance.... do-able.

[JP51]

Worst 3rd down defense of all teams in the playoffs... this is not good. That scares me... a lot... if we dont win it all I feel we will point to this... Bottom line you are not going to change this Defense in a week... if we dont get turnovers and hold teams to FG while we score TDs... we have very serious issues.  If we do that then we have the offense to win it all... D is going to be a problem but again... get hot, get turnovers, and be an excellent Red Zone D and for the love of God tackle... it can happen.