So, how is everyone feeling about this defense going into the playoffs?

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, FireChans said:

I know everyone is worried about the Ravens but I’ll be honest, I still fear the Bengals more than them. 
 

I think the Bengals are more likely to drop 40 on us. Now maybe we are more likely drop 40 on them but I still don’t like that kind of game with this team.

 

I whole heatedly agree.  I feel like we have historically played Lamar well and have more confidence in slowing them down than I do the Bengals, who in the partial game and full game we played against them we seemed to have no answers.  Earlier this year against the Ravens, we got caught up in a bad game giving up an 80 yard run on the first play to Henry that seemed to put the whole team on its heals in its first test of adversity since the opening half of week 1.  I am not going to assume it will be like that again, especially at our home this time. 

 

The Ravens IMHO are still the 2nd scariest offense to me in the AFC playoffs just given my lack of confidence in defending the run, but like you said, I am much more concerned about defending the Bengals offense right now than anyone else in terms of our defense.  

[ColoradoBills]

The D-Line will need to step up and perform above their current expectations.

 

The DEs have to set the edge, contain the running QBs and get pressure.

We have seen them able to do that at times, but it's going to be critical they bring it in the playoffs.

 

The DTs, well Oliver, Jones and the rest have to get mean.  I don't see that from them.  They need to anchor this D.

 

It all will start and end with them.  Von Miller has to contribute, and he needs to get these guys fired up by example.

It's the least he can do for this team.  Show us some spark!

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

Good defenses are 11th in the league in yards.

 

Good defenses are 11th in the league in yards.

 

Good defenses are 1st in the league in turnovers.

 

That's a mighty niche stat you've got there, Bill. And it's one stat.

 

Nobody's saying they're excellent. They're not. But simply denying that they're good, especially on the basis of one stat, is facile.

 

 

 

They are 11th in points. 20th in yards. The reason I like 3rd down as a true signifier of the strength or otherwise of a defense is that yards and points can be influenced by field position which is not only on defense it can be indicative of O and ST too. 3rd down is how often does your D make a play when it needs to. You don't find good defenses with bad 3rd down numbers. This is not a good defense. It isn't the 31st best defense. I'm not saying that. But the fact it is 31st on 3rd down tells you it isn't a good defense. It's bottom half of the NFL.

[Chaos]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are 11th in points. 20th in yards. The reason I like 3rd down as a true signifier of the strength or otherwise of a defense is that yards and points can be influenced by field position which is not only on defense it can be indicative of O and ST too. 3rd down is how often does your D make a play when it needs to. You don't find good defenses with bad 3rd down numbers. This is not a good defense. It isn't the 31st best defense. I'm not saying that. But the fact it is 31st on 3rd down tells you it isn't a good defense. It's bottom half of the NFL.

Excellent summary. Your post should be pinned to the top of the page, and all posts discussing defense of the Bills closed for the time being. 

[Fleezoid]

This thread makes me sad.......and nervous.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are 11th in points. 20th in yards. The reason I like 3rd down as a true signifier of the strength or otherwise of a defense is that yards and points can be influenced by field position which is not only on defense it can be indicative of O and ST too. 3rd down is how often does your D make a play when it needs to. You don't find good defenses with bad 3rd down numbers. This is not a good defense. It isn't the 31st best defense. I'm not saying that. But the fact it is 31st on 3rd down tells you it isn't a good defense. It's bottom half of the NFL.

This is why I always use per drive numbers. It effectively controls for offensive and ST performance. 
 

Take the 2023 Jets. 12th in points 3rd in yards. Everyone agrees they probably weren’t the 12th best defense in the NFL but really hamstrung by one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

 

Their per drive stats are all 2nd best in the NFL except for points, which is 4th. With the 24th best starting position. Thats elite defensive numbers and fits the eye test.

 

And the 2024 Bills are bang on below average in everything per drive except for points, where they are 16th and starting field position where they are fifth best. Which as you said, fits exactly. 

It’s also why I push back on how good the Bills defense has been over the years. They were just top 10 last year. The only year they were truly great on a per drive basis was 2021 and that coincided with the worst defensive collapse in franchise history. 

[skibum]

I will feel a lot better if:

- The starters are all healthy.

- Matt Milano gets his groove back.

- Von Miller plays a lot more snaps and goes for broke.

 

With all of those things, I think it's a good enough defense to give the offense a chance to win any game. The fewer of those things in play, the harder it will be.

Edited Friday at 02:34 AM by skibum

[Kelly to Allen]

KC is the only team I'm 50/50 on. I do think we're a little better but it's in arrowhead and Mahomes is mahomes. 

 

That game is going to be epic if we get there 

[Mikie2times]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, per play has the same vital importance as EP. Very little. Points and yards are what result in wins and field position gains and losses. Points and yards. Plenty of other stats can give you some interesting niche data that has some interesting niche meaning. It's not without meaning. But it has far less meaning than points and yards. Want to look at productivity? Yards. And points.

 

Wanna see who ran a higher percentage of the time? Check out who who got higher yards per play. It's usually them. It's not all that specific to productivity to have higher yards per play.  What is? Points. And yards.

 

Could you show me where I said "these were all back and forth shootouts"? Or anything really like it? I don't believe I did. I said that scoring a bunch of points in the playoffs against the Chiefs is overall a good way to make sure that the KC offense also scores a bunch of points. The Bills have, I would guess, averaged more points than anyone else, and the Chiefs feel very reasonably that a team with Josh Allen can score a lot and it keeps them on their toes.

 

And their 75% win percentage when the opponent scores more than 30 in the playoffs in the Mahomes era shows that's correct. IMO that year the Chiefs saw the Bills as a serious threat, even though the offense just wasn't good enough that year in the playoffs. But the Bills had not just beaten them in the regular season but held them to 17 offensive points. I think their offense took that personally.

 

And dude, how many times do I have to say this before you get it? Another dozen? Yeah, they scored a lot against the Bills, yeah their offense played well against the Bills. We all get it. You can produce stats that show they didn't do as well against other teams. Remind me, did they beat the Dolphins when they got 5.5 whatevers? Yeah? Exactly. Did they beat the Ravens who yadda yadda? Yeah? Exactly. Their offense has mostly scored what they need to score to win. They tend to relax when not pushed, when they feel safe. For whatever reason, that's their personality. That's their recent history. If your team doesn't score much, then not every time but more often than expected they won't perform like an offensive machine, they'll just score enough to win.

 

You say three of their best were against the Bills? First, that's YPP, a dumb measure. And second, as I've said the Bills have pushed them hard more often than most teams. They tend to score more when that happens. 

 

Your data does not refute my point, in any way.

 

The Chiefs have been better against the Bills ... and against anyone who scores a lot against them and scares them. When the Niners only scored 22, the Chiefs only scored enough to win, 25. On the other hand, when Houston got up 24-7 early in the 2nd Q, they saw them as a threat and turned on the afterburners. When Philly got 35 the Chiefs got what they needed, 38.

 

Again, they have freakishly won 3/4 games when the opponent scores more than 30. That flies in the face of normal results. It speaks to the fact that they are not a normal team.

Regardless if you use it, EPA is more accurate in forecasting future results than Yards or Points.  Since week 8 we are 19th in EPA defense and 30th when excluding turnovers. So if we fail to generate a turnover (as has been the case in most our playoff losses) we should expect about the league worse result. 

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

This is why I always use per drive numbers. It effectively controls for offensive and ST performance. 
 

Take the 2023 Jets. 12th in points 3rd in yards. Everyone agrees they probably weren’t the 12th best defense in the NFL but really hamstrung by one of the worst offenses in the NFL.

 

Their per drive stats are all 2nd best in the NFL except for points, which is 4th. With the 24th best starting position. Thats elite defensive numbers and fits the eye test.

 

And the 2024 Bills are bang on below average in everything per drive except for points, where they are 16th and starting field position where they are fifth best. Which as you said, fits exactly. 

It’s also why I push back on how good the Bills defense has been over the years. They were just top 10 last year. The only year they were truly great on a per drive basis was 2021 and that coincided with the worst defensive collapse in franchise history. 

Anytime you can adjust for trials it makes it more accurate. Which is why yard per play is more valuable than yards as a future predicator. EPA takes that concept further. I also agree on using per drive data if possible. It's just logical to do so. In no situations is one thing perfect but you use the best indicators the most intelligent ways you can. In that, I have never used Yards or Points.    

[Mikie2times]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I whole heatedly agree.  I feel like we have historically played Lamar well and have more confidence in slowing them down than I do the Bengals, who in the partial game and full game we played against them we seemed to have no answers.  Earlier this year against the Ravens, we got caught up in a bad game giving up an 80 yard run on the first play to Henry that seemed to put the whole team on its heals in its first test of adversity since the opening half of week 1.  I am not going to assume it will be like that again, especially at our home this time. 

 

The Ravens IMHO are still the 2nd scariest offense to me in the AFC playoffs just given my lack of confidence in defending the run, but like you said, I am much more concerned about defending the Bengals offense right now than anyone else in terms of our defense.  

My concern with the Ravens is our success was during the Greg Roman era. We have only played them one time in Monkens system and Lamar has been in MVP contention both years they have been in it.  Not to mention they have the #1 ranked EPA defense in football since week 8.  The Ravens are  a damn good team if Lamar performs adequately. Which isn't to say I want anything to do with the Bengals, I just can't help but dismiss our previous performances vs Baltimore in the Greg Roman era. I don't think they're worth any warm and fuzzies at this point.  

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

My concern with the Ravens is our success was during the Greg Roman era. We have only played them one time in Monkens system and Lamar has been in MVP contention both years they have been in it.  Not to mention they have the #1 ranked EPA defense in football since week 8.  The Ravens are  a damn good team if Lamar performs adequately. Which isn't to say I want anything to do with the Bengals, I just can't help but dismiss our previous performances vs Baltimore in the Greg Roman era. I don't think they're worth any warm and fuzzies at this point.  

Lamar has turned into a playoff choker in the Monken era too though.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

My concern with the Ravens is our success was during the Greg Roman era. We have only played them one time in Monkens system and Lamar has been in MVP contention both years they have been in it.  Not to mention they have the #1 ranked EPA defense in football since week 8.  The Ravens are  a damn good team if Lamar performs adequately. Which isn't to say I want anything to do with the Bengals, I just can't help but dismiss our previous performances vs Baltimore in the Greg Roman era. I don't think they're worth any warm and fuzzies at this point.  

 

Is some truth to this. And Monken took Babich's lunch money in that first meeting. That said... his game plan was entirely focussed on attacking Spector, Williams,  Lewis (as the nickel) and then Morrow (when they tried to play base). He wasn't really interested in attacking our secondary. He knew we couldn't hold up and the intermediate level and attacked it with nearly every single play call. In the first half he literally called one play not designed to expose the linebackers. I'd still like to see what it looks like with Bernard, Milano, Taron and Williams (if they go base), although I'd take leaving that find out until next season if someone else wants to dump the Ravens out of the playoffs before they reach us. 

[dma0034]

So much of the Bills Defense is predicated on the Offense being effect. The worst part of the Ravens wasn't the Defense is what how bad the O-Line played in that game. They got beat often on blitzes. This is something I think the Offense has improved upon as the Texans did a pretty good job too and now it is much harder to get to Allen.

In terms of the Defense there's a ton of factors in play. Of the playoffs teams (not counting the Bengals) the Ravens have the best Offense in the AFC that the Bills can face. If weather makes the ball more difficult to throw that is going to give the Bills a massive edge because Allen has shown he can throw in windy conditions whereas I do wonder how Lamar plays. It also allows the Bills to focus in on stopping the two headed Lamar-Henry combo. if it's perfect weather though it's going to come down to whether or not the Bills can stop Henry without breaking their base Defense. If you can't stop Henry and the LBs and Safeties start cheating the Ravens can take advantage of the lanes. Bills need to make Lamar a pocket passer but that can't happen unless you can stop Henry. Ultimately it's going to be on the D-Line and LBs

[Royale with Cheese]

18 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Agreed, but pinder this... is it Beane or is beane just giving McDermott what he wants for his crap nickle defense?

There are only 2 teams in the NFL who don’t run nickel majority of their defensive alignments.  Nickel is the base defensive for the vast majority of the NFL.

[The Jokeman]

10 hours ago, Kelly to Allen said:

KC is the only team I'm 50/50 on. I do think we're a little better but it's in arrowhead and Mahomes is mahomes. 

 

That game is going to be epic if we get there 

KC has to get there too, no guaranteeing they're going to the AFCC as again eventually the law of averages is going to catch up to them and they're going to lose. 

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

KC has to get there too, no guaranteeing they're going to the AFCC as again eventually the law of averages is going to catch up to them and they're going to lose. 

 

My hope is the Chargers pull off the upset over Baltimore and then go to KC for the divisional round. The Chargers usually give the Chiefs a tough game. Hopefully they can finally beat them. I don't think the Texans or Steelers (at least not the way they are currently playing) can go into Arrowhead and get a win.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

There are only 2 teams in the NFL who don’t run nickel majority of their defensive alignments.  Nickel is the base defensive for the vast majority of the NFL.

That  puke emoji wasn't at you lol. I hate the base nickle, unless you have 4 pure studs on the OL and two damn good LB's. 

[ganesh]

11 hours ago, skibum said:

I will feel a lot better if:

- The starters are all healthy.

- Matt Milano gets his groove back.

- Von Miller plays a lot more snaps and goes for broke.

 

With all of those things, I think it's a good enough defense to give the offense a chance to win any game. The fewer of those things in play, the harder it will be.

if they can get off the field on 3rd downs.

[Kelly to Allen]

3 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

KC has to get there too, no guaranteeing they're going to the AFCC as again eventually the law of averages is going to catch up to them and they're going to lose. 

 

I generally agree with you but everyone always said that the law of avgs would catch up to the Patriots. And oh Brady is 37, oh Brady is 39, oh Brady is 40 etc

 

Same thing with the Jordan bulls or Russell Celtics 

 

Heck I always said if Larry Bird never hurt his back the bad boy pistons never would've existed and they would have kept winning through the 80s. 

 

Sometimes it can be that dominant with a generational player 

[stlbills13]

The Chiefs are still really good and a really tough out in January. I hate it