So, how is everyone feeling about this defense going into the playoffs?

[Buffalo4Life01]

Everyone is so worried about playing the Ravens in the playoffs, it's almost sickening at this point.  "I'm so terrified to play the mighty Ravens!!!".  Come on guys!!  The game is in BUFFALO!!!  We are NOT the same team we were when we lost to them in Baltimore several months ago.  On offense, Shakir went down the 2nd series of the game.  No Cooper.  The offense was struggling.  On defense, no Bernard (yes he is hurt now but it sounds like he will be ready by the playoffs) and no Johnson crippled the rush defense.  I fully expect Buffalo to be MUCH better prepared if they should meet again in the playoffs.  And more importantly, MUCH healthier.

I just think some of you are so terrified of playing the Ravens, you've already conceded the game as a loss for Buffalo.  I not only welcome the challenge, I think Buffalo plays with a chip on their shoulder and wins the game by multiple scores.

Come on guys.  Adjust your skirts and and stop acting like scared little Nansies.  Buffalo is one of the best teams in the NFL and other teams should be worried about playing US!!!

Go Bills!!!!

[ganesh]

23 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

If the D-line comes to play, and we can improve that horrific 3rd down defense even a little, I think the D can do enough to give us a chance to win every game.

 

My concern is if the offense starts slow or has an off game, we will be dependent on turnovers to keep us in it and that’s just so highly variable.

 

Which is true with the Pats game...they quickly got up to a 14-0 score and our offense was not in rhythm.  Then thankfully, the defense had 3 back-to-back  drivers resulting in turnovers including one for a TD that bailed out the offense.  That kind of a game in the playoffs will be a loss for the Bills.

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Sorry, man, but you are wrong.

 

There's a reason I said the phrase you bolded, "What would the odds be against any other defense in the league? Yup, also pretty high." It's simply true.

 

Your attempt to use a bunch of stats didn't even address my point, much less successfully disprove it. I was saying that IF other teams had scored high, the odds are the Chiefs would have scored higher. To (poorly) attempt to rebut me you produced games where teams DID NOT score high. It's not clear whether you missed my point or are just trying to shoehorn evidence into an argument that they don't fit. But your evidence doesn't go towards what I said. It just doesn't.

 

What is the average win percentage through the whole league, when your opponent scores 30 or more? Damn low, is what it is.

 

Now as for games where the opponent actually DID score high in the playoffs against the Chiefs ... in the Mahomes era, in the playoffs, the Chiefs are 3/4 in games where their opponent scores 30 or more.

 

That is absolutely nuts. It's sensational. And it speaks to the fact that when the other team scores big, the Chiefs have done better - way way better - at putting their pedal to the metal and responding than most teams can manage. That is a fact.

 

Oh, and your argument that the Chiefs offense played their best postseason game against the Bills in 2023 is at best very questionable and frankly approaches nuts. What is your insistence on using EP? EP is excellent at picking out future odds. And poor at examining the past. The Chiefs put up 409 yards and 26 points against the Fins and 455 yards and 25 points against the 9ers in those same playoffs.

 

Compared to the 355 yards and 27 they managed against the Bills it's clear that was certainly not their best.

 

And again, those teams did NOT hold the Chiefs feet to the fire, score a ton of points and force them to score late to win. And unfortunately, neither did the Bills last year.

 

The Bills last three offensive drives were turnover on downs, punt and missed FG. That was at least as much to blame for that loss as the D was. Zero points on their last three drives, gave the ball to the Chiefs at the Bills 32 which the D did a terrific job getting a turnover on, and then the Missed FG on the drive they couldn't maintain. Ordinarily the Bills offense is good enough to keep drives going in cases like that. Not that day. That was every bit as much to blame as the defense. The offense wasn't good enough to put the Chiefs under pressure again there at the end, due to Diggs' drop, a couple of bad decisions by Allen, a few small problems here and there despite a lucky fumble recovery by Spencer Brown on that Allen fumble. Just not good enough.

 

 

The Bills scored 15 points through the the first 56 minutes of the 2020 AFCCG game. Why are you pretending these were all back and forth shootouts? The Chiefs dropped 38 on us that game and the Bills put together some garbage time scores at the end.

You don’t like EP? Fine. The 2023 divisional round was the best Chiefs postseason game by yards per play. By like a mile.

 

For context, the Chiefs offense averaged 7.6 yards per play in the 13 seconds game. 
 

They averaged 7.7 in the 2024 playoff game against us.

 

Against the Dolphins? 5.5

 

Against the Ravens? 4.4

 

Against the Niners? 5.8

 

Even in that Philly Super Bowl, they only were at 6.4.

 

Out of their 5 highest playoff games in yards per play since 2020 3 of them are the Bills lol. 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Governor said:

I think the next step in McD’s head coaching maturation is handing over the defense to someone else.  If he can’t do that, he will have to go. I’m fine with him staying as HC but the soft zone gotta go.

 

In his update the other day, he tried to distance himself from the defense to make it seem like it’s Babich’s defense and he only helps when needed. 
 

Nope. Nice try dude. There’s been a continuous blurring of the lines and that’s to escape accountability. We’ve already seen it play out too. When the heat gets close to him, he just fires the puppet that’s running his defense and continues on.

 

He fired 4 coordinators(?) in 7 years.   I think that would be a fairly common amount for a first time HC who lasts that long.   Two of those were from the first staff and didn't have a prior connection to McBeane (Crossman was a holdover).   I don't see any avoidance of accountability.

 

I understand that a lot of people don't think he's a "great" HC and that they need a great one to win SB's.   And when you feel that way it's exasperating.  We watched Marv cost the Bills the SB year after year so we are familiar with being out-coached in big games.

 

But there are other realities at play here.   It's not the 1990's anymore.  The Bills organization had arguably become the worst in the NFL and tied with the Sabres as the worst in pro sports before McBeane took over.   Even notably worse than Woody's Jets.  So trusting ownership to make a change should be a no-go.   If Allen insists on it, then you pull the trigger.  He's the franchise.  Otherwise I think you hope McBeane continue to improve on the job.   Which they have, even if it's still not where people want it to be. 

 

 

Edited Thursday at 03:09 PM by BADOLBILZ

[Buffalo Boy]

35 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

hope

Nope

 

[Gman10]

1 hour ago, Gregg said:

 

They would need to beat the Steelers which they can certainly do but I don't see the Chiefs backups beating the Broncos in Denver. I also think the Fins beat the Jets. The chances of them making the playoffs are not good.

Jets will beat Fins. Tua and Waddle

both hurt and its in Jersey. Dolphins are not a cold weather team.

 

Denver/KC I agree, but anything can happen. 
 

also, who knows what KC is thinking? They have only lost to one team this whole season, being the bills. Maybe they want us to have the hardest path to them 

[Thurman#1]

42 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The Bills scored 15 points through the the first 56 minutes of the 2020 AFCCG game. Why are you pretending these were all back and forth shootouts? The Chiefs dropped 38 on us that game and the Bills put together some garbage time scores at the end.

You don’t like EP? Fine. The 2023 divisional round was the best Chiefs postseason game by yards per play. By like a mile.

 

For context, the Chiefs offense averaged 7.6 yards per play in the 13 seconds game. 
 

They averaged 7.7 in the 2024 playoff game against us.

 

Against the Dolphins? 5.5

 

Against the Ravens? 4.4

 

Against the Niners? 5.8

 

Even in that Philly Super Bowl, they only were at 6.4.

 

Out of their 5 highest playoff games in yards per play since 2020 3 of them are the Bills lol. 

 

 

Yeah, per play has the same vital importance as EP. Very little. Points and yards are what result in wins and field position gains and losses. Points and yards. Plenty of other stats can give you some interesting niche data that has some interesting niche meaning. It's not without meaning. But it has far less meaning than points and yards. Want to look at productivity? Yards. And points.

 

Wanna see who ran a higher percentage of the time? Check out who who got higher yards per play. It's usually them. It's not all that specific to productivity to have higher yards per play.  What is? Points. And yards.

 

Could you show me where I said "these were all back and forth shootouts"? Or anything really like it? I don't believe I did. I said that scoring a bunch of points in the playoffs against the Chiefs is overall a good way to make sure that the KC offense also scores a bunch of points. The Bills have, I would guess, averaged more points than anyone else, and the Chiefs feel very reasonably that a team with Josh Allen can score a lot and it keeps them on their toes.

 

And their 75% win percentage when the opponent scores more than 30 in the playoffs in the Mahomes era shows that's correct. IMO that year the Chiefs saw the Bills as a serious threat, even though the offense just wasn't good enough that year in the playoffs. But the Bills had not just beaten them in the regular season but held them to 17 offensive points. I think their offense took that personally.

 

And dude, how many times do I have to say this before you get it? Another dozen? Yeah, they scored a lot against the Bills, yeah their offense played well against the Bills. We all get it. You can produce stats that show they didn't do as well against other teams. Remind me, did they beat the Dolphins when they got 5.5 whatevers? Yeah? Exactly. Did they beat the Ravens who yadda yadda? Yeah? Exactly. Their offense has mostly scored what they need to score to win. They tend to relax when not pushed, when they feel safe. For whatever reason, that's their personality. That's their recent history. If your team doesn't score much, then not every time but more often than expected they won't perform like an offensive machine, they'll just score enough to win.

 

You say three of their best were against the Bills? First, that's YPP, a dumb measure. And second, as I've said the Bills have pushed them hard more often than most teams. They tend to score more when that happens. 

 

Your data does not refute my point, in any way.

 

The Chiefs have been better against the Bills ... and against anyone who scores a lot against them and scares them. When the Niners only scored 22, the Chiefs only scored enough to win, 25. On the other hand, when Houston got up 24-7 early in the 2nd Q, they saw them as a threat and turned on the afterburners. When Philly got 35 the Chiefs got what they needed, 38.

 

Again, they have freakishly won 3/4 games when the opponent scores more than 30. That flies in the face of normal results. It speaks to the fact that they are not a normal team.

[PoundingDog]

50 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

also, who knows what KC is thinking? They have only lost to one team this whole season, being the bills. Maybe they want us to have the hardest path to them

Really? You think they are that afraid of the Bills? Maybe the fans. I'd bet you anything I have that Mahomes, Kelce etc. want to take on the Bills for a revenge. And the Andy Reid etc. would just think about how to position his team to the best possible state - #1 seed, health.

[SCBills]

2 hours ago, Buffalo4Life01 said:

Everyone is so worried about playing the Ravens in the playoffs, it's almost sickening at this point.  "I'm so terrified to play the mighty Ravens!!!".  Come on guys!!  The game is in BUFFALO!!!  We are NOT the same team we were when we lost to them in Baltimore several months ago.  On offense, Shakir went down the 2nd series of the game.  No Cooper.  The offense was struggling.  On defense, no Bernard (yes he is hurt now but it sounds like he will be ready by the playoffs) and no Johnson crippled the rush defense.  I fully expect Buffalo to be MUCH better prepared if they should meet again in the playoffs.  And more importantly, MUCH healthier.

I just think some of you are so terrified of playing the Ravens, you've already conceded the game as a loss for Buffalo.  I not only welcome the challenge, I think Buffalo plays with a chip on their shoulder and wins the game by multiple scores.

Come on guys.  Adjust your skirts and and stop acting like scared little Nansies.  Buffalo is one of the best teams in the NFL and other teams should be worried about playing US!!!

Go Bills!!!!

This worry is entirely predicated on the uncertainty of whether our Defense will, not just step up.. but even show up.. in the Postseason. 
 

I agree with you that the game being in Buffalo is massive.   
 

I also agree with you that we are a very different team now vs back then. 
 

So are the Ravens… since mid-season, they’ve had an elite level Defense, recognized by a pro-bowler on the DL, LB, at CB and S. 
 

Their Offense has been elite since that point, as has ours.  
 

Our Defense NEEDS to step up, because while it will be billed as Josh Allen vs Lamar Jackson, just as it always is in the Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes matchups, it’s actually Josh vs the superior defense and Lamar (Pat) vs the defense that historically doesn’t show up in these moments (covid windstorm aside). 
 

That has to change this year now that we’re finally healthy, and we all know this.. as evidence by the tenor of this thread. 

[Alphadawg7]

How do I feel about the defense...I will just say this...please don't let the Bengals get in.  

[Thurman#1]

4 hours ago, Chaos said:

The Hell No part is the actual answer to the question.  

You have to factor in the “wishful thinking” adjustment.  

 

 

Well, if Hell No is the answer to the question, then it was a dumb question. You're the one who asked it. You said, "Are you sure?" after he said, "Sean brought him Allen and a winning culture. That's a fact. Sean brought him Beane, and the two of them brought him Allen.

 

The correct answer is yes, unless your "are you sure" was twisting his words to pretend that he meant that Beane and nobody else brought him Allen. And if that's what you asked, it was a dumb question.

 

Nobody with the slightest bit of sense is saying that McDermott was the only person made that decision. Everyone with the slightest bit of sense, particularly after reading that article knows Sean was behind it, that Sean knew he wasn't ready to pick a QB the year before with the limited time he had available after having to spend so much time that year that laying the foundation for the whole team. (And Sean has never said this, nor would he, but why would he trust Whaley to choose a QB when Whaley had been so wildly in EJ Manuel's corner the previous time that he was tasked with QB choice.

 

So Sean traded and got an extra 1st the next year. Without that, probably no Josh Allen.

 

He then brought in Beane, who clearly he trusts. 

 

So teh answer to that question, unless it's the genuinely stupid variation of that question, is Absolutely Yes.

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

How do I feel about the defense...I will just say this...please don't let the Bengals get in.  

 

Assuming no upsets on WC weekend the Ravens offense will be just as dangerous. Plus, they have a better defense than the Bengals. My guess is the Bills will have to go through the Broncos, Ravens, and Chiefs to get to the Super Bowl. That will not be easy.

[Buffalo4Life01]

4 minutes ago, SCBills said:

This worry is entirely predicated on the uncertainty of whether our Defense will, not just step up.. but even show up.. in the Postseason. 
 

I agree with you that the game being in Buffalo is massive.   
 

I also agree with you that we are a very different team now vs back then. 
 

So are the Ravens… since mid-season, they’ve had an elite level Defense, recognized by a pro-bowler on the DL, LB, at CB and S. 
 

Their Offense has been elite since that point, as has ours.  
 

Our Defense NEEDS to step up, because while it will be billed as Josh Allen vs Lamar Jackson, just as it always is in the Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes matchups, it’s actually Josh vs the superior defense and Lamar (Pat) vs the defense that historically doesn’t show up in these moments (covid windstorm aside). 
 

That has to change this year now that we’re finally healthy, and we all know this.. as evidence by the tenor of this thread. 

Agree with much of what you have to say here and appreciate your feedback!  I just think a huge part of the Raven's success on defense lately is a product of who they've played.  Here is their last 6 games:  Steelers, Ravens, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, and a VERY beat up offensively Texans team.  The Steelers are a huge mess on offense right now as are the Giants, and the Chargers have been as inconsistent offensively as any team has been down the stretch.  The only somewhat prolific offense they held in check was the Eagles.  In my opinion, the Ravens have an above average to 'Good' defense.  They are nothing to be feared like they are the 85 Bears or something like that.  

Go Bills!!

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good defenses are not 31st in the league on 3rd down giving up 44.4%

 

 

 

Good defenses are 11th in the league in yards.

 

Good defenses are 11th in the league in yards.

 

Good defenses are 1st in the league in turnovers.

 

That's a mighty niche stat you've got there, Bill. And it's one stat.

 

Nobody's saying they're excellent. They're not. But simply denying that they're good, especially on the basis of one stat, is facile.

 

They're definitely not as good as past years. That's very clear. And they've had a bad stretch or two as well. But that doesn't mean they're not good. And seemingly getting a bit better.

8 minutes ago, Buffalo4Life01 said:

Agree with much of what you have to say here and appreciate your feedback!  I just think a huge part of the Raven's success on defense lately is a product of who they've played.  Here is their last 6 games:  Steelers, Ravens, Eagles, Giants, Steelers, and a VERY beat up offensively Texans team.  The Steelers are a huge mess on offense right now as are the Giants, and the Chargers have been as inconsistent offensively as any team has been down the stretch.  The only somewhat prolific offense they held in check was the Eagles.  In my opinion, the Ravens have an above average to 'Good' defense.  They are nothing to be feared like they are the 85 Bears or something like that.  

Go Bills!!

 

 

Wait, the Ravens played the Ravens?

 

Neither the Steelers nor the Eagles is a bad offense.

 

You could be right. I hope you are. I'd pick us, over anyone at home, but I wouldn't have a ton of confidence against the Ravens. I think their D is pretty dang good. But our offense is kicking butt as well. 

[FireChans]

34 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yeah, per play has the same vital importance as EP. Very little. Points and yards are what result in wins and field position gains and losses. Points and yards. Plenty of other stats can give you some interesting niche data that has some interesting niche meaning. It's not without meaning. But it has far less meaning than points and yards. Want to look at productivity? Yards. And points

Ok lmao.

 

Yards allowed in the playoffs vs the Chiefs

 

2020 The Bills had the most yards and points allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs

2021 The Bills had the most yards allowed and tied for the most points allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs

2023 The Bills had the most points allowed and the 3rd most yards allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs.

 

Nice metric. One of the worst teams at allowing yards/points to the Chiefs in the playoffs every year we face them. By your own admission, this is bulletproof because those are ironclad measures of productivity.

 

Lets look at Bengals v Chiefs

 

2021 The Bengals had the second most points allowed and least yards allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs

2022 The Bengals had the least points allowed and the second most yards allowed in the playoffs to the Chiefs

 

Of course, they are 1-1 in those games compared to our 0-3.

 

So irrefutable evidence that the Bills are worse at stopping the Chiefs than the Bengals, right?

 

34 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Again, they have freakishly won 3/4 games when the opponent scores more than 30. That flies in the face of normal results. It speaks to the fact that they are not a normal team

In the playoffs?

 

The Chiefs in the Mahomes era is 3-2 when the opposing team scores 30+ in the playoffs.

 

I guess they weren't pushed all that hard in those two losses.

Edited Thursday at 05:08 PM by FireChans

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The Bills scored 15 points through the the first 56 minutes of the 2020 AFCCG game. Why are you pretending these were all back and forth shootouts? The Chiefs dropped 38 on us that game and the Bills put together some garbage time scores at the end.

You don’t like EP? Fine. The 2023 divisional round was the best Chiefs postseason game by yards per play. By like a mile.

 

For context, the Chiefs offense averaged 7.6 yards per play in the 13 seconds game. 
 

They averaged 7.7 in the 2024 playoff game against us.

 

Against the Dolphins? 5.5

 

Against the Ravens? 4.4

 

Against the Niners? 5.8

 

Even in that Philly Super Bowl, they only were at 6.4.

 

Out of their 5 highest playoff games in yards per play since 2020 3 of them are the Bills lol. 

We can see the Chiefs match up very well vs the Bills defense. Especially when AJ Klein is covering Kelce. Ravens, Niners and probably the Dolphins are all tougher defenses than Buffalo’s. So these numbers aren’t all that surprising. The Bills won’t be getting a new defense before the playoffs. 

[gordong]

not good enough that's how I feel...  Josh will have to have the ball last and be superman. 

[Boatdrinks]

19 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Assuming no upsets on WC weekend the Ravens offense will be just as dangerous. Plus, they have a better defense than the Bengals. My guess is the Bills will have to go through the Broncos, Ravens, and Chiefs to get to the Super Bowl. That will not be easy.

While other opponents are possible , you’re probably right. 

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Good defenses are 11th in the league in yards.

 

Good defenses are 11th in the league in yards.

 

Good defenses are 1st in the league in turnovers.

Have we factored in that maybe all the Bills opponents were playing possum and not trying to get yards or not turn the ball over super hard?

 

Bills are 20th in yards allowed BTW.

 

16th in points allowed per drive

26th in yards allowed per drive

24th in plays allowed per drive

25th in time allowed per drive.

 

They are not good. They are bad.

Edited Thursday at 05:12 PM by FireChans

[Thurman#1]

Dude, it's been like fifteen times I've told you that you are correct on that, that the Chiefs offense has played very well against the Bills.

 

What I've also told you is that it isn't just the Bills, that the Chiefs for years now have been a team with an identity of hibernating on offense against teams that don't put up many points, just putting up enough points to win? Can you disagree? Is that something you don't see about the Chiefs? Of course they've been that way.

 

Again, what other teams are 75% in games where their opponent scored 30 or more.

 

Yes, the Super Bowl was close. But low-scoring. (I presume you're talking about the last one.) In low-scoring games they tend to score enough to win but not to act like the prolific scoring monsters they are capable of being.

 

Yeah, I do point out that the last two years they've been injured. Is it even possible you don't understand why? I said that because it's true. It wasn't just a lot of injuries, it was a lot of injuries to key players. Yeah, I said it. Denying it is nuts. Pretending it didn't happen and trying to ignore it equally so.

 

And yeah, I also said that the Bills were running on empty in that Cincy game. Again, is that wrong? The players don't think so. Many of them mentioned a total lack of juice after the game. They know better than us. And they said it. And again, was it NOT a historically awful season, with Damar dying on the field, with Knox's brother dying, with a racially motivated mass shooter in the city and all the rest? Yeah, I said it. Saying it's not so appears to me to be more nuts than pointing out the obvious. Again, the players said it. And we haven't heard that from them otherwise.