So, how is everyone feeling about this defense going into the playoffs?

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Huh?

 

I just showed that the last 3 times we played the Chiefs, their best offensive game in the postseason was against us. 
 

They played other teams during those postseasons. They didn’t post their best offensive game against them. They posted them against us.

 

I’m honestly confused.

 

 

Really? OK, sorry, let me point out what I think is the logical flaw there.

 

You are assuming that if one thing changed in those games that everything else would have stayed the same. Which isn't a reasonable assumption.

 

Again, the Chiefs offense seems to do just what they need to do to win. If the other team doesn't score much, the Chiefs often don't score much either. If the other team does score a lot, it seems to light a fire under Mahomes' butt and he performs better, again doing what it takes to win. That's how they've looked mostly for years now.

 

 

[Mikie2times]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Really? OK, sorry, let me point out what I think is the logical flaw there.

 

You are assuming that if one thing changed in those games that everything else would have stayed the same. Which isn't a reasonable assumption.

 

Again, the Chiefs offense seems to do just what they need to do to win. If the other team doesn't score much, the Chiefs often don't score much either. If the other team does score a lot, it seems to light a fire under Mahomes' butt and he performs better, again doing what it takes to win. That's how they've looked mostly for years now.

 

 

They trailed 20-10 in one of the games vs the 49ers. Went to OT in the other. Went to OT in one of the Bengals games. Led by 3 in the 4th quarter of the other. Pretty sure Mahomes had plenty of incentive to “dial” it in. It just wasn’t as easy as it is vs us to do so.

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I was trying to follow your method of justifying our postseason defense and I finally had to turn to mind altering substances.
 

So you don’t acknowledge that the Chiefs have been better against the Bills than other teams they have played multiple times in the playoffs (and the Bengals for that matter). But if you did acknowledge that, you would make it conditional that Mahomes plays extra good against us because the games are close ( wasn’t the Super Bowl close?) or that we are emotionally sad or we are injured. 
 

I think all the bases have been covered.

By his logic, all we have to do is score fewer points and gain fewer yards on offense...that's the real way to keep the Chiefs offense down!

[Thurman#1]

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

They trailed 20-10 in one of the games vs the 49ers. Went to OT in the other. Went to OT in one of the Bengals games. Led by 3 in the 4th quarter of the other. Pretty sure Mahomes had plenty of incentive to “dial” it in. It just wasn’t as easy as it is vs us to do so.

 

 

They trailed by 20 - 10 in the game vs. the 49ers, right? And then didn't they do enough to catch up and win? Exactly as history says they will do.

 

Did I say that KC doesn't go to OT? Or did I say that they have consistently done enough to win and not much more? And did they? Did they get behind and quickly come back, doing what they needed to do?

 

The Chiefs offense did just what they needed to do to win, not much more. Which is their tendency. Which is my point.

 

Mahomes had a rough game with some bad decisions in that 2021 season game that they lost. And the Cincy defense played very well. In both games. That shouldn't be questioned. but I watched that game as you probably did, and Mahomes was not so good.

 

Not so much this year - which gives me hope - but over the past few years if an opponent wanted KC's offense to get potent and start scoring, all they needed to do was have their own offense start putting up points. The Bills have been the best at scaring the Chiefs.

 

And by the way, the one problem the Bills D has had over the past few years is an inability to rush well. When they brought in Von before the injury it looked like they were going to be able to hassle Mahomes enough to knock him off his game. Unfortunately Von got injured and while he seems better, he is not the same as he was.

 

This is a very legitimate concern about this D, that they don't have that one guy with a jet-assisted get-off. Makes it hard to defend against great QBs.

 

25 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

By his logic, all we have to do is score fewer points and gain fewer yards on offense...that's the real way to keep the Chiefs offense down!

 

 

Nope, that would be your logic.

 

But go ahead, find a place where I said that.

[FireChans]

44 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Really? OK, sorry, let me point out what I think is the logical flaw there.

 

You are assuming that if one thing changed in those games that everything else would have stayed the same. Which isn't a reasonable assumption.

 

Again, the Chiefs offense seems to do just what they need to do to win. If the other team doesn't score much, the Chiefs often don't score much either. If the other team does score a lot, it seems to light a fire under Mahomes' butt and he performs better, again doing what it takes to win. That's how they've looked mostly for years now.

 

 

I’m not assuming anything.

 

what I am saying is that the Chiefs have their best offensive playoff game against the Bills, EVERY playoff when they play the Bills.

 

That’s a complete and total fact. Zero assumptions made.

 

What is also a fact is that they DON’T have their best offensive playoff game against other playoff teams in the years they play the Bills. And in fact, they have had some pretty notable offensive playoff stinkers.  The 2021 AFCCG against the Bengals. The 2020 Super Bowl which may have been Mahomes worst statistical game of his career.
 

You are arguing the “why” that happens, (paraphrasing) that they have to bring their offensive A-game when they play the Bills and maybe only the Bills.

 

I don’t think that argument really bears out tbh.

46 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

By his logic, all we have to do is score fewer points and gain fewer yards on offense...that's the real way to keep the Chiefs offense down!

I think this is honestly a secret defense of ball control McDermott offense.

[Thurman#1]

21 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I’m not assuming anything.

 

what I am saying is that the Chiefs have their best offensive playoff game against the Bills, EVERY playoff when they play the Bills.

 

That’s a complete and total fact. Zero assumptions made.

 

What is also a fact is that they DON’T have their best offensive playoff game against other playoff teams in the years they play the Bills. And in fact, they have had some pretty notable offensive playoff stinkers.  The 2021 AFCCG against the Bengals. The 2020 Super Bowl which may have been Mahomes worst statistical game of his career.
 

You are arguing the “why” that happens, (paraphrasing) that they have to bring their offensive A-game when they play the Bills and maybe only the Bills.

 

I don’t think that argument really bears out tbh.

I think this is honestly a secret defense of ball control McDermott offense.

 

 

Yes, you're repeating yourself.

 

But what you've got there at the bottom is reasonable. But very far from strong. Which is why it's reasonable.

 

You don't think that argument bears out. Well, I certainly can't prove that you're wrong. You can't prove me wrong either. But three out of four SB wins is a very very strong indicator that the Chiefs offense kept doing, again and again, just what it needed to win.

 

And no, I am not saying that they bring their best offensive game only against the Bills. I'm saying they bring their best offensive game mostly only to any team that forces them to do so. The Eagles in the Super Bowl, for instance, scored 35 points. That forced the Chiefs to do what? Put up 38 and win the game. The Texans scored 31 and the Chiefs absolutely wiped them out.

 

They don't manage this perfectly, they do lose a playoff game every once in a while.  They lost the Super Bowl to a team that scored 31 if I remember correctly. But less than any other playoff team the past few years.

 

And that is their M.O. They do seem to take it up a notch when pushed. 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

They trailed 20-10 in one of the games vs the 49ers. Went to OT in the other. Went to OT in one of the Bengals games. Led by 3 in the 4th quarter of the other. Pretty sure Mahomes had plenty of incentive to “dial” it in. It just wasn’t as easy as it is vs us to do so.

 

 

Um, they DID win the game. They did do what they needed to do.

 

You're right that he had plenty of incentive to dial it in. Which he did.

[That's No Moon]

[26TrapDraw]

They will get gashed by run heavy fronts and blown off the ball by dominant run games let’s just be honest. Our best defense will be Josh and the offense jumping out early and going up 14-0.

if anyone thinks this Defensive unit is Super Bowl caliber your Homer is showing and you need to be honest with yourself.

 

I really want to eat crow here.

Edited Thursday at 08:01 AM by 26TrapDraw

[FireChans]

53 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yes, you're repeating yourself.

 

But what you've got there at the bottom is reasonable. But very far from strong. Which is why it's reasonable.

 

You don't think that argument bears out. Well, I certainly can't prove that you're wrong. You can't prove me wrong either. But three out of four SB wins is a very very strong indicator that the Chiefs offense kept doing, again and again, just what it needed to win.

 

And no, I am not saying that they bring their best offensive game only against the Bills. I'm saying they bring their best offensive game mostly only to any team that forces them to do so. The Eagles in the Super Bowl, for instance, scored 35 points. That forced the Chiefs to do what? Put up 38 and win the game. The Texans scored 31 and the Chiefs absolutely wiped them out.

 

They don't manage this perfectly, they do lose a playoff game every once in a while.  They lost the Super Bowl to a team that scored 31 if I remember correctly. But less than any other playoff team the past few years.

 

And that is their M.O. They do seem to take it up a notch when pushed. 

 

 

 

 

 

Um, they DID win the game. They did do what they needed to do.

 

You're right that he had plenty of incentive to dial it in. Which he did.

I’m repeating myself because you said this:

 

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

What are the odds the Chiefs have their best offensive game in the postseason vs the Bills in the AFCCG? Yeah, pretty high. What would the odds be against any other defense in the league? Yup, also pretty high.

 

When playing well, the Chiefs seem to become almost unstoppable, at least in the postseason. Same with the Bills under Allen. Both guys, aided by the rules that make QBing and route-running easier have been almost eerie in their ability to be spectacularly productive. Mahomes slightly more so than Allan. That ... is what has happened.

 

Yeah, I'm not arguing that the Chiefs have been sensational on offense in the playoffs recently. Have you seen me arguing that? If you had, you ought to really let me have it. But let's be honest, you haven't. I haven't made that argument. So don't act like I have. It's intellectually dishonest.

 

As for all those other teams "not letting them play one of their best offensive games" against the Chiefs in the playoffs, yeah, I remember all of those games where other teams had the Chiefs down by less than a score and the Chiefs offense had the ball at the end and were coming down the field and those other defenses rose up, stomped the Chiefs and knocked them out of the playoffs.

 

Yeah, I remember well, there was the .... the ... um, the ... er, um. Give me a few weeks on that.

 

Three Super Bowl championships tell you. This Chiefs offense has done what they needed when they needed it. Nobody has stopped them when they were playing well. Pretending it's only the Bills says more about you than about other teams. The only team that stopped 'em was the Bengals that one year, and honestly that looked more like Cincy lucked into Mahomes just having a terrible game.

 

Oh, and the Bills defense against the Bengals was pretty bad. So was the Bills offense, including Allen. So was the STs. The whole team appeared absolutely emotionally devastated a

 

And that's not even mentioning the swatch of injuries to our defense in two of those years, specifically to the best players on our defense. When it's a fact, it's not an excuse, it's a justification.

 

 

When the facts of the last 4 years don’t bear that out, at all.

 

the 2023 Chiefs played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It ranked fifth by EP on their season. Their next highest playoff game was 7th in the WC round, and their other two games were 11th and 12th.

 

The 2022 Bengals played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It’s ranked 3rd by EP on their season. Their other two playoff games were 10th and 16th.

 

the 2021 Chiefs played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It’s ranked 3rd by EP on their season. Their other two playoff games were 9th and 12th.

 

the 2020 Chiefs played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It’s ranked 1st on EP on their season. Their other two playoff games were 9th and 19th.

 

So no. The odds of the Chiefs having one of their best offensive performances in 2024 vs the Bills or vs any other team are not both “very high.” It’s clearly higher for the Bills because that’s what always happens. And while you can say, “no the clear and obvious conclusion isn’t that the defense is bad, it’s that the Bills offense makes the Chiefs offense play better,” it’s clearly wrong. 
 

Go look up the caliber of teams where those teams put up similar numbers.

 

2020 Chiefs second best EP offensive game - Raiders with the 30th ranked defense

 

2021 Chiefs second and fourth best EP offensive game - Raiders x 2, 26th ranked defense with a mid season HC firing

 

2023 Chiefs 4th and 6th best EP offensive game - Raiders with a mid season fired HC and the Jets

 

I did the EP above and below the Bills performance. It’s Jets/Raiders esque, which tells you all you need to know. You could say Mahomes gets up for Ralph Bisacchia and Derek Carr like he does for the Bills in the playoffs. Or you could make the more correct conclusion that our defense plays at a bad teams’ level against the Chiefs.

[Thurman#1]

44 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I’m repeating myself because you said this:

 

When the facts of the last 4 years don’t bear that out, at all.

 

the 2023 Chiefs played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It ranked fifth by EP on their season. Their next highest playoff game was 7th in the WC round, and their other two games were 11th and 12th.

 

The 2022 Bengals played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It’s ranked 3rd by EP on their season. Their other two playoff games were 10th and 16th.

 

the 2021 Chiefs played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It’s ranked 3rd by EP on their season. Their other two playoff games were 9th and 12th.

 

the 2020 Chiefs played their best postseason game on offense against the Bills. It’s ranked 1st on EP on their season. Their other two playoff games were 9th and 19th.

 

So no. The odds of the Chiefs having one of their best offensive performances in 2024 vs the Bills or vs any other team are not both “very high.” It’s clearly higher for the Bills because that’s what always happens. And while you can say, “no the clear and obvious conclusion isn’t that the defense is bad, it’s that the Bills offense makes the Chiefs offense play better,” it’s clearly wrong. 
 

Go look up the caliber of teams where those teams put up similar numbers.

 

2020 Chiefs second best EP offensive game - Raiders with the 30th ranked defense

 

2021 Chiefs second and fourth best EP offensive game - Raiders x 2, 26th ranked defense with a mid season HC firing

 

2023 Chiefs 4th and 6th best EP offensive game - Raiders with a mid season fired HC and the Jets

 

I did the EP above and below the Bills performance. It’s Jets/Raiders esque, which tells you all you need to know. You could say Mahomes gets up for Ralph Bisacchia and Derek Carr like he does for the Bills in the playoffs. Or you could make the more correct conclusion that our defense plays at a bad teams’ level against the Chiefs.

 

 

Sorry, man, but you are wrong.

 

There's a reason I said the phrase you bolded, "What would the odds be against any other defense in the league? Yup, also pretty high." It's simply true.

 

Your attempt to use a bunch of stats didn't even address my point, much less successfully disprove it. I was saying that IF other teams had scored high, the odds are the Chiefs would have scored higher. To (poorly) attempt to rebut me you produced games where teams DID NOT score high. It's not clear whether you missed my point or are just trying to shoehorn evidence into an argument that they don't fit. But your evidence doesn't go towards what I said. It just doesn't.

 

What is the average win percentage through the whole league, when your opponent scores 30 or more? Damn low, is what it is.

 

Now as for games where the opponent actually DID score high in the playoffs against the Chiefs ... in the Mahomes era, in the playoffs, the Chiefs are 3/4 in games where their opponent scores 30 or more.

 

That is absolutely nuts. It's sensational. And it speaks to the fact that when the other team scores big, the Chiefs have done better - way way better - at putting their pedal to the metal and responding than most teams can manage. That is a fact.

 

Oh, and your argument that the Chiefs offense played their best postseason game against the Bills in 2023 is at best very questionable and frankly approaches nuts. What is your insistence on using EP? EP is excellent at picking out future odds. And poor at examining the past. The Chiefs put up 409 yards and 26 points against the Fins and 455 yards and 25 points against the 9ers in those same playoffs.

 

Compared to the 355 yards and 27 they managed against the Bills it's clear that was certainly not their best.

 

And again, those teams did NOT hold the Chiefs feet to the fire, score a ton of points and force them to score late to win. And unfortunately, neither did the Bills last year.

 

The Bills last three offensive drives were turnover on downs, punt and missed FG. That was at least as much to blame for that loss as the D was. Zero points on their last three drives, gave the ball to the Chiefs at the Bills 32 which the D did a terrific job getting a turnover on, and then the Missed FG on the drive they couldn't maintain. Ordinarily the Bills offense is good enough to keep drives going in cases like that. Not that day. That was every bit as much to blame as the defense. The offense wasn't good enough to put the Chiefs under pressure again there at the end, due to Diggs' drop, a couple of bad decisions by Allen, a few small problems here and there despite a lucky fumble recovery by Spencer Brown on that Allen fumble. Just not good enough.

 

 

Edited Thursday at 09:02 AM by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

Thanks, GoBills808.

 

Couldn't manage any words that would actually impact my points, could you? Fair enough to limit yourself to a smile. That's a nice compliment.

[GunnerBill]

Arguing about past years is pretty pointless anyway. The Bills have had good defenses in past years that haven't got it done in the playoffs for a myriad of reasons. 

 

That isn't relevant to this year because, well, we don't have a good defense. 

[Thurman#1]

Wouldn't go that far, Bill. This is IMO a good defense, especially as they get healthier. But not as good, certainly. How much less will have me on the end of my seat.

 

But you're right that there isn't a firm connection. The Chiefs also don't seem to be the same team this year that they were in the past, though the last game looked pretty good.

 

And Josh seems to be even better than he's been.

 

Ought to be an interesting post-season. I'm exhilarated but terrified. Same as every year, really.

Edited Thursday at 10:59 AM by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

Wouldn't go that far, Bill. This is IMO a good defense, especially as they get healthier. But not as good, certainly. How much less will have me on the end of my seat.

 

But you're right that there isn't a firm connection. The Chiefs also don't seem to be the same team this year that they were in the past, though the last game looked pretty good.

 

And Josh seems to be even better than he's been.

 

Ought to be an interesting post-season. I'm exhilarated but terrified. Same as every year, really.

 

Good defenses are not 31st in the league on 3rd down giving up 44.4%

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

Yup.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/1167351/2019/08/29/is-your-guy-ready-for-the-league-inside-the-bills-decisions-meetings-and-scouting-trips-that-led-to-josh-allen/

 

"Beane knew this decision would define him as a general manager, so he meticulously laid out a plan. He and assistant general manager Joe Schoen studied the prospects extensively on film in August and made plans to see them live that fall. They saw Louisville’s Lamar Jackson play against N.C. State. They schmoozed their way onto the field at USC to watch Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen go head to head from the sideline. Beane relayed his findings to McDermott throughout the fall.

'He would go out and scout and come back, and there’s not a lot of GMs that do that,” McDermott said. “Some do, some don’t. He goes out, which I like. I appreciate that. It makes it harder on us during the week sometimes because we can’t do sitdown face to face. That said, player acquisition and knowing who’s out there is important.'

 

"McDermott knew he needed to start scouting quarterbacks earlier than he had the previous year. When the Bills flew to Atlanta for their Week 4 upset win over the Falcons, McDermott spent the time in the air watching film of Allen.

 

“'First thing that jumps off the film is how big he is, and you think about our weather here that we get and how much we needed a guy that you didn’t question the arm strength as the top guy,' McDermott said.

 

"With Beane scouting live and McDermott watching tape, the Bills’ brain trust started to formulate baseline opinions on the quarterbacks. Neither one had overseen the process of scouting and drafting a quarterback, but they drew on their prior experiences to know what they wanted in their franchise guy. Beane had been around for Cam Newton and Jake Delhomme in Carolina. McDermott saw Newton and Donovan McNabb when he was in Philadelphia."

 

And then from the Senior Bowl:  

 

“It’s a little intimidating, walking into a room with unknown coaches, unknown faces and them sitting down expecting you, getting ready to drill you with questions,” Allen said. “They have video up. That part was just the most nerve-racking part. Everyone else was just kind of meeting in the hotel where we were at with everybody, nothing crazy. I remember walking into that room and greeting coach McDermott first and then everybody else. It was definitely an eye-opening experience.“

 

 

And then from their visit to Laramie:

 

 

"The next morning, Daboll put Allen through a workout.

 

“'We threw a lot of footballs that day,' Allen recalled.

 

"With every pass, Allen had the owner of the Bills standing by filming.

 

“'That’s the coolest part about it,' Allen said. 'As I was going through drills, Mr. Pegula was filming me on his phone, like in my face as I was dropping back, going through all of these progressions. It was awesome to know the owners of the Buffalo Bills are very hands-on and very active in what they want to really accomplish with their franchise here.'

 

"While Allen was going through a strong workout, Schoen got an alert on his phone. The New York Jets had traded the No. 6 pick and two second-round picks to the Colts to move up three spots to the No. 3 pick.

 

“'We’re all like, "Oh man how is this going to work out?” 'McDermott said. 'He had a really good workout and it’s one of those deals where you leave that workout, it’s like leaving the store and you’re saying, "That’s a really cool whatever," but you’re leaving saying, "I don’t know if I can get that.’ It’s kind of bittersweet, like what did we come out here for?”

 

 

Did McDermott make the decision? Hell, no. That's Beane's job. But was McDermott involved in the decision? Absolutely yes.

 

 

 

 

The Hell No part is the actual answer to the question.  

47 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Good defenses are not 31st in the league on 3rd down giving up 44.4%

You have to factor in the “wishful thinking” adjustment.  

[Governor]

17 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Will McD be more likely to quit or be fired if he leaves in the near future?   I hope they win that SB this year and that doesn't happen......but if not I certainly don't think Terry Pegula would fire McD for another playoff loss.   But the fans sorta' ran Mularkey out of town when he quit.  If McD perceives he's grossly under appreciated and doesn't like his treatment in the area maybe he decides to move on.  That would be a tough call with Josh Allen at QB and control of the purse strings.  Maybe Tepper gets humbled and offers he and Beane the same deal to return home to Carolina after 2025.

I think the next step in McD’s head coaching maturation is handing over the defense to someone else.  If he can’t do that, he will have to go. I’m fine with him staying as HC but the soft zone gotta go.

 

In his update the other day, he tried to distance himself from the defense to make it seem like it’s Babich’s defense and he only helps when needed. 
 

Nope. Nice try dude. There’s been a continuous blurring of the lines and that’s to escape accountability. We’ve already seen it play out too. When the heat gets close to him, he just fires the puppet that’s running his defense and continues on.

Edited Thursday at 12:18 PM by Governor

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I'm terrified they face a HC that commits to the run.

[Gregg]

42 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I'm terrified they face a HC that commits to the run.

 

Unless there is an upset during WC weekend then prepare yourself to be terrified in the divisional round when its Ravens at Bills.

[Gman10]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I'm terrified they face a HC that commits to the run.

Or Burrow and the Bengals....

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, Gman10 said:

Or Burrow and the Bengals....

 

They would need to beat the Steelers which they can certainly do but I don't see the Chiefs backups beating the Broncos in Denver. I also think the Fins beat the Jets. The chances of them making the playoffs are not good.