What is Josh Allen worth in wins and losses?

[DCofNC]

1 hour ago, Fan in Chicago said:

I whole heartedly agree. He is a prime example of stats not telling the full story. 

That play is lunacy.  Coleman needs to bring that in, but the other one down the sideline that got called back was an idea what he CAN  do, it’s going to be fun watching these two as Coleman develops. 
 

Allen is SO MUCH more than the stats, he’s the leader, the heart beat and the best damn player by a mile of the team.  His impact is unmeasurable IMO.   I’ll be a real unpopular figure and say, he genuinely masks all the deficiencies of the organization as a whole from talent evaluation to coaching blunders.  He’s the entire reason this team is where they are.

[BearNorth]

6 hours ago, DCofNC said:

Allen is SO MUCH more than the stats, he’s the leader, the heart beat and the best damn player by a mile of the team.   He’s the entire reason this team is where they are.

He leads by example in so many ways.  Guys been hurt since the first game, and just keeps keeping on, performing at a high level despite playing in pain.

[The Wiz]

We've seen the drought years.  He means about 80-90% in terms of wins and loses.

[Since1981]

• Pre-Josh Allen (2014–2017): 8.25 wins/year

• Post-Josh Allen (2018–2021): 10 wins/year

 

improvement of 1.75 wins/yr. after 17 joined Bills.

Bah. Proves stats suck. 

[Beck Water]

42 minutes ago, Since1981 said:

• Pre-Josh Allen (2014–2017): 8.25 wins/year

• Post-Josh Allen (2018–2021): 10 wins/year

 

improvement of 1.75 wins/yr. after 17 joined Bills.

Bah. Proves stats suck. 

 

But wait, there's more.  Let's take out Allen's rookie season (when the Bills had him as 3rd  string QB all summer but then started him 'cuz Peterdude still sucked) and let's include 2022 and 2023 (but not this year yet.

 

11.6 wins/year

 

Improvement of 3.35 wins/year

 

Meanwhile for several of those years (2022, 2023) guys who know something about football like Chris Simms were pounding their table that the Bills offense was far too dependent on Josh Allen, without enough run game or enough talent at WR and TE.

 

 

[Beck Water]

10 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

That is only if you believe that McD has not influenced that.  
 

McD as a coach talking with Josh and working with him and the OC to not only come up with plans, but what to work on and plans for growth have allowed Josh to develop.

 

Without the success and stability of a head coach, you get Aaron Rodgers of 2024 and NYJ Sam Darnold versus Minnesota Sam Darnold.  You get the Bears blowing multiple high draft pick QBs not because of talent, but the change and lack of stability cause the QB failure.

 

Josh is Josh because McD allowed him to grow and foster.  
 

My belief is that Josh’s success is a direct reflection of his relationship with Beane and McD and their trust and attitude in how to build a franchise allowed Josh to grow and become a star and you do not get one without the other.

 

I'm not sure whether we fundamentally disagree or whether this is a nit

 

Josh's success is a direct reflection of Josh's athletic talent, combined with an incredibly competitive drive to win AND a willingness to self-reflect and strive for improvement.

 

Beane, McDermott, and the offensive coaches stumbled out of the gate with Josh - crap OL and poor WR in 2018, no experienced vet QB on the roster who could show Josh the ropes for game prep - but they recovered and did a good job keeping Josh in a consistent offensive system and putting talent in front of him and around him to enable his success.  This isn't entirely serendipity - Beane has talked about how, in the lead up to the 2018 draft, they talked about how more QB talent is ruined than is developed in the NFL.

 

We agree that without the success and stability of a HC, an offensive system, and a positive culture, you get NYJ Sam Darnold and Cleveland Baker Mayfield as well as the Bears blowing multiple high picks - though I'm uncertain some of the Bears QBs would have succeeded anywhere.  

But Josh is "1 of 1" as far as talent, competitive drive, and willingness to improve himself.

 

 

[Mikie2times]

8 hours ago, DCofNC said:

That play is lunacy.  Coleman needs to bring that in, but the other one down the sideline that got called back was an idea what he CAN  do, it’s going to be fun watching these two as Coleman develops. 
 

Allen is SO MUCH more than the stats, he’s the leader, the heart beat and the best damn player by a mile of the team.  His impact is unmeasurable IMO.   I’ll be a real unpopular figure and say, he genuinely masks all the deficiencies of the organization as a whole from talent evaluation to coaching blunders.  He’s the entire reason this team is where they are.

I’m getting closer to this view. I imagine when I review Pro Bowl and All Pro players Buffalo will be among the lowest in football in Allen’s time. We had those studies that show the Bills play more draft picks than just about anybody? So what? That could just as easily mean we are more committed to our draft picks than other teams. Which is likely true. The truth is, it’s very hard to tell how good we are at HC and GM with a player like Allen. He covers up so many issues. I mean, most people here think Beane is elite. Which at times feels accurate, but at the end of the day this team has less talent than a lot of teams built by Whaley or Donahue. I applaud Beanes exhaustive approach to adding depth. But we just don’t have the number of difference makers you would expect on a Super Bowl contender. All this isn’t to say we should target Beane as inferior. More, we shouldn’t just assume he is superior because we win. It is nearly impossible to picture Josh Allen not competitive for the playoffs. He would do so on the Giants this year. That’s just what he brings. 

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I’m getting closer to this view. I imagine when I review Pro Bowl and All Pro players Buffalo will be among the lowest in football in Allen’s time. We had those studies that show the Bills play more draft picks than just about anybody? So what? That could just as easily mean we are more committed to our draft picks than other teams. Which is likely true. The truth is, it’s very hard to tell how good we are at HC and GM with a player like Allen. He covers up so many issues. I mean, most people here think Beane is elite. Which at times feels accurate, but at the end of the day this team has less talent than a lot of teams built by Whaley or Donahue. I applaud Beanes exhaustive approach to adding depth. But we just don’t have the number of difference makers you would expect on a Super Bowl contender. All this isn’t to say we should target Beane as inferior. More, we shouldn’t just assume he is superior because we win. It is nearly impossible to picture Josh Allen not competitive for the playoffs. He would do so on the Giants this year. That’s just what he brings. 

 

Beane has one of the lowest bust rates among all GMs in his time here, and that probably justifies him being looked at as a top 10 GM. Though he has advantages some others don't have: a Head Coach he is in complete lock step with and schematic consistency. While the Frazier defense and the McDermott year and the Babich defense are not just exact replicas of one another the fundamental defensive scheme is unchanged. There has been a little more turnover on offense (mainly offensive line we have flip flopped a few times on what we are looking for in our blocking scheme) but not a ton. Those help you avoid busts because you are not drafting player X to play in one scheme and by his second year finding him in another one. But he misses very rarely and he finds plenty of above average starters too. I don't think it is just that the Bills are "more committed to their draft picks." If I look at the Bills drafted players who are currently starters on this team (excluding rookies): Allen, Cook, Kincaid, Dawkins, Brown, Torrence, Shakir, Rousseau, Epenesa, Oliver, Johnson, Bernard, Milano, Benford, Hamlin I think only Hamlin and possible Epenesa are guys who wouldn't start for the majority of NFL teams.

 

The knock, you are right, is he hasn't found enough elite talent. Indeed this regime has only had three first team all pros in their eight seasons: Tre White (2019), Jordan Poyer (2021) and Matt Milano (2022). All three of them were acquired by McDermott in the offseason he ran personnel. Beane has two second team all pros: Josh Allen (2020) and Taron Johnson (2023) who I think we would all agree are his two best draft selections and they are the only two guys we have that I think are elite at their positions and would start not just for most teams but like 30 of 32. And while the defence of him in that regard is "ah he always drafts at the end of rounds, it's harder", which is true, he has had seven goes at it now. You need to start showing more for that around your Quarterback than an elite slot corner. 

 

I don't think this is a personnel regime making big blunders year after year that need covering up by Josh Allen. That isn't, in my view, a fair characterisation. I think relative to the rest of the league the Bills do a pretty good job and most of the metrics for measuring these things support that. But they are not beyond legitimate questioning either Beane and his staff. They have not been perfect and there are things they need to do better. Finding more elite difference makers and not wasting cap $$s year after year on defensive tackles in FA only to have pull guys off the street in November every season to bolster the room are the top two on my bingo card but there are others too. 

[BearNorth]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Beane has two second team all pros: Josh Allen (2020) and Taron Johnson (2023) who I think we would all agree are his two best draft selections and they are the only two guys we have that I think are elite at their positions and would start not just for most teams but like 30 of 32. 

I think you need to add Benford, who is an elite cornerback.  He was ranked 8th last year, and is currently ranked 4th after 16 games.  Based on this year's performance, would you rather have him or Sauce?

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, BearNorth said:

I think you need to add Benford, who is an elite cornerback.  He was ranked 8th last year, and is currently ranked 4th after 16 games.  Based on this year's performance, would you rather have him or Sauce?

 

I am a big Benford guy. I think he is excellent. He is PFF's 4th graded corner and 3rd outside corner because Cooper DeJean has been entirely a nickel. And yes, in 2024 he has played better than Sauce (though Sauce has still been better than some of the criticism he faces, his completion rate allowed when targeted is still elite). That said for me to say "yes, Christian Benford is an elite player" rather than "he has had an elite season." We have started to see teams try and stay away from him in coverage the second half of this season. That bears watching too because as I said before, when Tre was in his prime teams just didn't throw at his side of the field other than in the flat or when they were in desperation mode. 

[BearNorth]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 when Tre was in his prime teams just didn't throw at his side of the field other than in the flat or when they were in desperation mode. 

Of course with Levi Wallace on the other boundary, that was a good business decision to throw that way.

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The knock, you are right, is he hasn't found enough elite talent. Indeed this regime has only had three first team all pros in their eight seasons: Tre White (2019), Jordan Poyer (2021) and Matt Milano (2022). All three of them were acquired by McDermott in the offseason he ran personnel. Beane has two second team all pros: Josh Allen (2020) and Taron Johnson (2023) who I think we would all agree are his two best draft selections and they are the only two guys we have that I think are elite at their positions and would start not just for most teams but like 30 of 32. And while the defence of him in that regard is "ah he always drafts at the end of rounds, it's harder", which is true, he has had seven goes at it now. You need to start showing more for that around your Quarterback than an elite slot corner. 

 

I appreciate and in fact agree with your POV that Beane has found talent, but is short on elite talent.

 

But mentioning Josh Allen and Taron Johnson as 2nd team all-pros just illustrates the shortcomings of using All-Pro designations as a metric for elite talent.

It may have been once, but it is no longer.  Dawkins has been playing at an elite level as LT; Spencer Brown seems to be moving into the "elite level" category if he stays healthy.  We'll see on Bernard, but if he can have a DL who keeps the LB clean I think he'll prove elite.  Cook could be elite.

 

I think the biggest place where Beane has not shown the ability to acquire/develop elite talent is at receiver (WR and TE).

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Almost all of them.

 

McDermott costs us a game or two a year and Allen usually is responsible for a loss. Last year it was the Jets opener and this year it was the Texans. 

 

Outside of the Rams game, the games were all decided win or loss on how Allen played. 

 

 

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I appreciate and in fact agree with your POV that Beane has found talent, but is short on elite talent.

 

But mentioning Josh Allen and Taron Johnson as 2nd team all-pros just illustrates the shortcomings of using All-Pro designations as a metric for elite talent.

It may have been once, but it is no longer.  Dawkins has been playing at an elite level as LT; Spencer Brown seems to be moving into the "elite level" category if he stays healthy.  We'll see on Bernard, but if he can have a DL who keeps the LB clean I think he'll prove elite.  Cook could be elite.

 

I think the biggest place where Beane has not shown the ability to acquire/develop elite talent is at receiver (WR and TE).

Beane has barfed all over the DL.  That's the biggest weakness on this team. Rousseau is too inconsistent and Oliver is woefully even more inconsistent. Epenesa made his two impact plays of the year. Other than that he's a massive liability against the run. This next draft will see Edge and DT taken with two of the first three picks and maybe all three. 

 

He had a top 3 WR in the league for several years in a row. He's made some bad FA signings but Davis, Shakir, Knox, Kincaid. And even Hollins have been solid. 

[C.Biscuit97]

21 hours ago, DCofNC said:

That play is lunacy.  Coleman needs to bring that in, but the other one down the sideline that got called back was an idea what he CAN  do, it’s going to be fun watching these two as Coleman develops. 
 

Allen is SO MUCH more than the stats, he’s the leader, the heart beat and the best damn player by a mile of the team.  His impact is unmeasurable IMO.   I’ll be a real unpopular figure and say, he genuinely masks all the deficiencies of the organization as a whole from talent evaluation to coaching blunders.  He’s the entire reason this team is where they are.

I gotta push back on this and it has nothing to do with how awesome Allen is. But that’s why I hate the MVP talk because he kinda craps on the rest of the team. 
 

do people not remember who Allen was when we got him? He was an extremely raw qb from Wyoming. The Bills were a playoff team the year before. They keep the same OC for Allen for 4 years, which rarely happens. They have consistently been a playoff team under McBeane. People need to stop acting like this team is the Jets when it is one of the best organizations in the NFL. 
 

Allen has developed into possibly the best player in the nfl. But this organization helped him developed into that. 

[Sharky7337]

Just look at the franchise record for the 7 seasons prior and you have your answer 

[JP51]

I think this team is somewhere between .500 and 7-10 without him and playing a 1st place schedule. Assuming Trubisky or White is starting.  So 5- 7 wins maybe.

Edited Thursday at 05:24 PM by JP51

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I gotta push back on this and it has nothing to do with how awesome Allen is. But that’s why I hate the MVP talk because he kinda craps on the rest of the team. 
 

do people not remember who Allen was when we got him? He was an extremely raw qb from Wyoming. The Bills were a playoff team the year before. They keep the same OC for Allen for 4 years, which rarely happens. They have consistently been a playoff team under McBeane. People need to stop acting like this team is the Jets when it is one of the best organizations in the NFL. 
 

Allen has developed into possibly the best player in the nfl. But this organization helped him developed into that. 

We can agree to disagree.  That’s fine.   Yes the team surrounded him with a staff, yes he grew during that time, but every team surrounds their guys with the best they can.  Allen put in time on his own w Palmer, he worked with receivers in the off season and he took his God Given talent to the next level.    If the franchise is the reason for his success, why couldn’t they make Tyrod an All Pro?  Simple, it’s talent over the team.   With all the years of mediocrity, it’s easy to see what it takes to make a team and that’s individual talent.  How great was KC with Smith? A playoff team, not a Juggernaut.  New England without Brady?   Hell look at TB with and without Brady, even with a top 10 QB to replace him.  The player is the success, not the team.

[Orlando Buffalo]

Josh as he currently plays is worth 5 games a year. He has been worth 5 wins a year since 2020 but he also gave away two games each year before this year, so he was only +3, hence a team that should be 9-8 without him is 12-5 using him vs an average QB prior to this year. This team would be 9-8 but is 13-3 because of him.