What is Josh Allen worth in wins and losses?

[Mikie2times]

I think an element to exists how he impacts the floor as well. We could say, well, a .500 team has 8 wins and this data indicates Allens performance will likely add 2-3 additional wins above average but I would argue the worst a team does with a QB performing like this is .500. So I think that 2-3 likely becomes a lot more. I would argue put Josh on any team in football and regardless of who it is they will be wild card contender instantly. 

Edited December 31, 2024 by Mikie2times

[CincyBillsFan]

I have a lot of experience in data analysis and football is not a good place to apply it.  Sure, you can get some insight but for something like this it's a significant overreach.  After all how do you factor this into the calculations:

 

 

[Doc Brown]

18 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Well, if Joe Burrow had been the Bills qb vs the Jets last week, he would have taken 3-4 sacks (the Jets’ pass rush was good). Allen took zero. Burrow has a 6.76 percent sack rate and has fumbled 10 times (5 lost); Allen has a infinitesimally small 2.82 percent sack rate and has fumbled 5 times (2 lost). Jackson also has 10 fumbles (5 lost). 

One thing that impresses me about Burrow is his willingness to take big hits and hold on to the ball as long as he does.  He has a lot of sacks because of that but imo  he knows when not to hold onto the ball depending on down, distance, and game situation.  Injuries are always a major concern though because of that.  

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

The leader in QBR going back to 2006 has always been on a team that has won 12 games or more except one time - the 2016 11-5 Falcons, a team that had zero business losing the SB that year.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/qbr_year_by_year.htm

Allen is an AV god. You might want to rethink that. It is not QBR.

He’s an every stat god. But I don’t think those actually adequately capture his greatness.

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

I have a lot of experience in data analysis and football is not a good place to apply it.  Sure, you can get some insight but for something like this it's a significant overreach.  After all how do you factor this into the calculations:

 

 

What is overreaching? 

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

One thing that impresses me about Burrow is his willingness to take big hits and hold on to the ball as long as he does.  He has a lot of sacks because of that but imo  he knows when not to hold onto the ball depending on down, distance, and game situation.  Injuries are always a major concern though because of that.  

He is a phenomenal player, no doubt. He is playing off the hook this season.

[CincyBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

What is overreaching? 

Rank ordering QB impact on wins/losses using analytics.  Unlike Baseball there are not enough data points and the data is to subjective/variable to provide much insight. 

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Rank ordering QB impact on wins/losses using analytics.  Unlike Baseball there are not enough data points and the data is to subjective/variable to provide much insight. 

I'm just looking at results based on different levels of performance. I didn't form any conclusions. You will see a consistent decline in wins and losses based on QBR and very high correlations between the two. These relationships are strong enough to suggest what your saying isn't accurate. 

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

I'm just looking at results based on different levels of performance. I didn't form any conclusions. You will see a consistent decline in wins and losses based on QBR and very high correlations between the two. These relationships are strong enough to suggest what your saying isn't accurate. 

Have at it.  But if analytics is working then it must show FUTURE outcomes.  Describing the past is not very important. 

[Taro Nimbus]

So by the data collected, he’s trending to have a down year next year?  😱

[Mikie2times]

54 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

One thing that impresses me about Burrow is his willingness to take big hits and hold on to the ball as long as he does.  He has a lot of sacks because of that but imo  he knows when not to hold onto the ball depending on down, distance, and game situation.  Injuries are always a major concern though because of that.  

Hes the best passer in the game. Not to be confused with the best player.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

We hopefully never find out until he retires.

 

 

[GoBills808]

54 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He’s an every stat god. But I don’t think those actually adequately capture his greatness.

Agree

 

That's what I've been saying

There's no adequate holy ***** metric yet

[Warriorspikes51]

10 wins

 

1 hour ago, Taro Nimbus said:

So by the data collected, he’s trending to have a down year next year?  😱

Please be sure to let him know!   & we'll see what the data says afterward 😎

Edited December 31, 2024 by Warriorspikes51

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, djp14150 said:

QBR is significantly flawed.

 

I will never trust nor accept the system until try actually publish their formula 

Is it?....qb rating doesn't even factor in rushing yards or tds.

[wjag]

Josh is worth money. 

[djp14150]

35 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Is it?....qb rating doesn't even factor in rushing yards or tds.

In my post I said regular QB rating doesn’t factor in mobile/ running QB

 

Espn version has significant flaws thst doesn’t pass the smell test when you have rating scores thst doesn’t pass the eye test 

 

neither formula is perfect but the regular rating is something you understand and can see the components to it, not subj3vtibe measures like was the QB under pressure or not

[djp14150]

5 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Well, if Joe Burrow had been the Bills qb vs the Jets last week, he would have taken 3-4 sacks (the Jets’ pass rush was good). Allen took zero. Burrow has a 6.76 percent sack rate and has fumbled 10 times (5 lost); Allen has a infinitesimally small 2.82 percent sack rate and has fumbled 5 times (2 lost). Jackson also has 10 fumbles (5 lost). 
 

Allen had the lowest sack rate in the league last year too: 3.98 percent, which tells you how impressive his sack rate is this year.

 

I always go back to Flutie and RJ. Behind the same lines, RJ had a 10+ percent sack rate while Flutie’s was around 4 percent. It was exactly why Flutie was always the better performer and option for the Bills. RJ actually has the highest nfl sack rate of all time.

Might happen this year with Burrow, but through no fault of his own. Their expected record right now should be around 10-6, but given the ridiculous losses late, they are 8-8.

 

I know a mobile QB is going to limit the sacks they get

 

with Jackson some of the fumbles were when he was passed the line running. That would be an important distinction in stats. I would also downgrade INTs on Hail Mary throws and on 3rd and long very deep balls where an INT yardage gain is in the ball park of punt net yardage like being inside the 20 or have net 45+ yds. Other ones I’d discount are errors innthe receivers of balls they dropped and/ or resulted in an INT. When you have an INT where receiver and QB on different reads count be split blame

 

this year the Bengals are 3-7 in one score games. I laugh at his MVP talk because many had forecasted this team to be 11+ wins so how many of his turnovers have cost them games

 

 

[Don Otreply]

Josh Allen is why we have discussions like this,

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

My takeaway, is Josh Allen = playoffs expectations.

 

Void of nearly everything else.

 

Is it possible to still not make the playoffs with a top 10 performing QBR? Sure. Rare, but it happens. Even more rare when that QB crosses 70 QBR. Even more so when you look at the declining number of players hitting these levels recently. Only 2 players even above 65 last year and 3 players the year prior.

 

I have long made the argument that this franchises success and stability are from Allen more than anything else and I would triple down on that thought process   

 

Of course they are. Franchise QB always  matters more than anything else. That isn't revelationary. It's just fact. But that doesn't get you to where you think it does on coaching.