What is Josh Allen worth in wins and losses?

[Mikie2times]

I have seen a ton of posts talk about culture, it taking a village, and other concepts to explain why Buffalo has been so successful over the last few years. Maybe that stuff is true, maybe it's not, I really have no idea how to quantify these concepts. What we can do is look at high level QB play over a period of time and see what type of impact that had on the teams they played for. So that's exactly what I did. 

 

I used QBR to split the groupings up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating not a perfect system by any stretch, but much better at accounting for total production (like running). 

 

• Group one is QB's that finished the season 70 or higher and played a minimum of 10 games
• Group two is QB's that finished the season between 65-69.99 and played a minimum of 10 game

 

In most seasons these groupings would yield between 8-10 total players, 2-4 in the first group and about 5-6 in the lower tier group. 

 

You can see the results below, 1 PLA and 2 PLA is just the total players in each group that year. 

 

Teams with a QB that finished the year with a 70 or better QBR are 582-208 since 2010. Good for a 73.67% winning percentage.

Teams with a QB that finished the year with a 65-69.99 QBR are 475-288 since 2010. Good for a 62.25% winning percentage.

 

 

Josh Allen has had the following QBR's

 

2020: 76.6 

2021:  66.3

2022: 73.4

2023: 69.6

2024: 76.7

 

So three years he has been in group 1 and three years he has been in group 2. His record in that time is 61-21,  1% above the average record of Group 1 players. 

 

I intend on adding some additional data to this such as playoff appearances and results, but for now this is what I have. 

 

  

[eSJayDee]

Interesting "hypothesis" & nice job collecting data & analyzing it.  One possible issue I can think of, which I don't really know, is a chicken-egg thing.  That is, does a successful team lead to a QB having a better QBR, or does the better QBR lead to a more successful team.  Not really knowing how QBR is determined/measured, I can't say.

[Mikie2times]

33 minutes ago, eSJayDee said:

Interesting "hypothesis" & nice job collecting data & analyzing it.  One possible issue I can think of, which I don't really know, is a chicken-egg thing.  That is, does a successful team lead to a QB having a better QBR, or does the better QBR lead to a more successful team.  Not really knowing how QBR is determined/measured, I can't say.

QBR is very similar to rating. You tend to see the same guys most years in the top 10, but you do get examples of Tyrod Taylor or Ryan Tannenhill once in awhile that are doing it based on the system. 

[colin]

i think this data shows brady has done a good job of getting max josh allen while running the ball more w rbs.  also, the skill talent is way less now than in 2020.  the line is better but the stats show josh turns pressures into escapes better than anyone else -- so net net i think the talent on o was better through the 2020 season than it is today.

 

the consistency of JAs qbr given the total overall shortcomings of offensive talent around him (has he ever had as much talent as say the top 5 most talented offenses in the nfl, save qb?) says we have been a really good offensive football team, and our d, coaching, and special teams have been average in terms of wins and losses, and terrible in the playoffs (other data tells me that, mainly my eyes).

 

brian billik was an offensive guru who got the ravens a chip, but he was ditched because his D there was great and his o stank for the most part.  that organization would have fired mcd after 13 seconds, or at the latest after the cinci melt down.

 

all mcd really has to do is get his d and dc to ball out for four games after next week, and then he's a legend.

[djp14150]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I have seen a ton of posts talk about culture, it taking a village, and other concepts to explain why Buffalo has been so successful over the last few years. Maybe that stuff is true, maybe it's not, I really have no idea how to quantify these concepts. What we can do is look at high level QB play over a period of time and see what type of impact that had on the teams they played for. So that's exactly what I did. 

 

I used QBR to split the groupings up. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_quarterback_rating not a perfect system by any stretch, but much better at accounting for total production (like running). 

 

• Group one is QB's that finished the season 70 or higher and played a minimum of 10 games
• Group two is QB's that finished the season between 65-69.99 and played a minimum of 10 game

 

In most seasons these groupings would yield between 8-10 total players, 2-4 in the first group and about 5-6 in the lower tier group. 

 

You can see the results below, 1 PLA and 2 PLA is just the total players in each group that year. 

 

Teams with a QB that finished the year with a 70 or better QBR are 582-208 since 2010. Good for a 73.67% winning percentage.

Teams with a QB that finished the year with a 65-69.99 QBR are 475-288 since 2010. Good for a 62.25% winning percentage.

 

 

Josh Allen has had the following QBR's

 

2020: 76.6 

2021:  66.3

2022: 73.4

2023: 69.6

2024: 76.7

 

So three years he has been in group 1 and three years he has been in group 2. His record in that time is 61-21,  1% above the average record of Group 1 players. 

 

I intend on adding some additional data to this such as playoff appearances and results, but for now this is what I have. 

 

  

QBR is significantly flawed.

 

I will never trust nor accept the system until try actually publish their formula 

[djp14150]

1 hour ago, eSJayDee said:

Interesting "hypothesis" & nice job collecting data & analyzing it.  One possible issue I can think of, which I don't really know, is a chicken-egg thing.  That is, does a successful team lead to a QB having a better QBR, or does the better QBR lead to a more successful team.  Not really knowing how QBR is determined/measured, I can't say.

im not saying the NFL passer rating is the best, it’s not because it penalizes mobile/ running QBs

 

at the same time QBR produces utterly nuts ratings.  It penalizes QBs for sacks but how much is the sack the QBs fault?

[GunnerBill]

Following this math, it is worth about 2 wins for your QB to be in group 1 rather than group 2. 

 

100/17 means each game is worth 5.8%. 11% win difference between the two groups equates to about two games. 

 

Allen was in the 60s last year and the Bills won 11 games. He is in the 70s this year we have won 13. So it sorta checks out. 

 

Still, not a lover of QBR and don't know that the analysis proves anything. But the difference between your QB having a good year and a great year being about 2 wins doesn't feel a wild conclusion.

 

[stevestojan]

Just here to say I don’t do this much work at, well … work. 
 

I appreciate those that do. Cheers, OP. Good stuff. 

[colin]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

Following this math, it is worth about 2 wins for your QB to be in group 1 rather than group 2. 

 

100/17 means each game is worth 5.8%. 11% win difference between the two groups equates to about two games. 

 

Allen was in the 60s last year and the Bills won 11 games. He is in the 70s this year we have won 13. So it sorta checks out. 

 

Still, not a lover of QBR and don't know that the analysis proves anything. But the difference between your QB having a good year and a great year being about 2 wins doesn't feel a wild conclusion.

 

 

the interesting bit is this data points out that the team's record is bang on average for the level that josh allen plays at, suggesting our D and special teams are replacement level over the past 5 years.

 

the implication is there is a lot of room to improve, particularly given the consistency our QBR has had in the face of roster turnover, and going a different direction on D/special teams/coaching could yield us better results.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, colin said:

 

the interesting bit is this data points out that the team's record is bang on average for the level that josh allen plays at, suggesting our D and special teams are replacement level over the past 5 years.

 

the implication is there is a lot of room to improve, particularly given the consistency our QBR has had in the face of roster turnover, and going a different direction on D/special teams/coaching could yield us better results.

 

I don't think that is true of the last 5 years. It is about right this year. 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

QBR is very similar to rating. You tend to see the same guys most years in the top 10, but you do get examples of Tyrod Taylor or Ryan Tannenhill once in awhile that are doing it based on the system. 

PFR has an AV (approximate value) rating similar to WAR (MLB) and VORP (NBA), and it certainly passes my eyeball test. He led the league in AV in 2021 and 2022. He was 5th in 2023 and 3rd in 2020. It encompasses all positions—for instance, Aaron Donald led in 2020 with a 24 AV.

I suspect Allen will lead the league in AV this year.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

Edited December 31, 2024 by dave mcbride

[Mikie2times]

My takeaway, is Josh Allen = playoffs expectations.

 

Void of nearly everything else.

 

Is it possible to still not make the playoffs with a top 10 performing QBR? Sure. Rare, but it happens. Even more rare when that QB crosses 70 QBR. Even more so when you look at the declining number of players hitting these levels recently. Only 2 players even above 65 last year and 3 players the year prior.

 

I have long made the argument that this franchises success and stability are from Allen more than anything else and I would triple down on that thought process   

[dave mcbride]

22 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

im not saying the NFL passer rating is the best, it’s not because it penalizes mobile/ running QBs

 

at the same time QBR produces utterly nuts ratings.  It penalizes QBs for sacks but how much is the sack the QBs fault?

Well, if Joe Burrow had been the Bills qb vs the Jets last week, he would have taken 3-4 sacks (the Jets’ pass rush was good). Allen took zero. Burrow has a 6.76 percent sack rate and has fumbled 10 times (5 lost); Allen has a infinitesimally small 2.82 percent sack rate and has fumbled 5 times (2 lost). Jackson also has 10 fumbles (5 lost). 
 

Allen had the lowest sack rate in the league last year too: 3.98 percent, which tells you how impressive his sack rate is this year.

 

I always go back to Flutie and RJ. Behind the same lines, RJ had a 10+ percent sack rate while Flutie’s was around 4 percent. It was exactly why Flutie was always the better performer and option for the Bills. RJ actually has the highest nfl sack rate of all time.

1 minute ago, Mikie2times said:

My takeaway, is Josh Allen = playoffs expectations.

 

Void of nearly everything else.

 

Is it possible to still not make the playoffs with a top 10 performing QBR? Sure. Rare, but it happens. Even more rare when that QB crosses 70 QBR. Even more so when you look at the declining number of players hitting these levels recently. Only 2 players even above 65 last year and 3 players the year prior.

 

I have long made the argument that this franchises success and stability are from Allen more than anything else and I would triple down on that thought process   

Might happen this year with Burrow, but through no fault of his own. Their expected record right now should be around 10-6, but given the ridiculous losses late, they are 8-8.

[Mikie2times]

Just now, dave mcbride said:

Well, if Joe Burrow had been the Bills qb vs the Jets last week, he would have taken 3-4 sacks (the Jets’ pass rush was good). Allen took zero. Burrow has a 6.76 percent sack rate and has fumbled 10 times (5 lost); Allen has a infinitesimally small 2.82 percent sack rate and has fumbled 5 times (2 lost). Jackson also has 10 fumbles (5 lost). 
 

Allen had the lowest sack rate in the league last year too: 3.98 percent, which tells you how impressive his sack rate is this year.

 

I always go back to Flutie and RJ. Behind the same lines, RJ had a 10+ percent sack rate while Flutie’s was around 4 percent. It was exactly why Flutie was always the better performer and option for the Bills. RJ actually has the highest nfl sack rate of all time.

Allen prevents sacks in a consistent way that very few others can and I have no problem giving him credit for it. Brady did the same. They did it differently, but great QB's can't allow sacks at high rates. They're drive killers. The really good ones limit them with either how long they hold it or mobility. 

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Well, if Joe Burrow had been the Bills qb vs the Jets last week, he would have taken 3-4 sacks (the Jets’ pass rush was good). Allen took zero. Burrow has a 6.76 percent sack rate and has fumbled 10 times (5 lost); Allen has a infinitesimally small 2.82 percent sack rate and has fumbled 5 times (2 lost). Jackson also has 10 fumbles (5 lost). 
 

Allen had the lowest sack rate in the league last year too: 3.98 percent, which tells you how impressive his sack rate is this year.

 

I always go back to Flutie and RJ. Behind the same lines, RJ had a 10+ percent sack rate while Flutie’s was around 4 percent. It was exactly why Flutie was always the better performer and option for the Bills. RJ actually has the highest nfl sack rate of all time.

Might happen this year with Burrow, but through no fault of his own. Their expected record right now should be around 10-6, but given the ridiculous losses late, they are 8-8.

Burrow could be a 70 who misses, Matt Ryan also had a few. Rare, but it happens and I imagine the pattern is similar with bad defenses and close losses. 

[FireChans]

I think Josh for his career is roughly worth 8-10 wins on his own. 
 

Like if you put him on the Giants or the Raiders to start the year, they are both playoff teams. 

 

He makes the entire team better. The HC’s are more aggressive because Josh rewards them for being aggressive. He makes the defense better because every third or 4th down he converts is another drive they stay off the field.  He is a one man offense. A weird mixture of Elway and Cam. He’s 1 of 1.
 

There is not a player individually worth more imo. 

[dave mcbride]

AV explained, for those interested: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/about/approximate_value.htm

[FireChans]

18 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

PFR has an AV (approximate value) rating similar to WAR (MLB) and VORP (NBA), and it certainly passes my eyeball test. He led the league in AV in 2021 and 2022. He was 5th in 2023 and 3rd in 2020. It encompasses all positions—for instance, Aaron Donald led in 2020 with a 24 AV.

I suspect Allen will lead the league in AV this year.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

AV doesnt do it for me personally.

 

Theres really no stat that appreciably can tell the difference between a Joe Burrow sitting the pocket and hitting an 8 yard out on third and 7 to Chase and a Josh Allen dodging a free rusher, rolling to his right outrunning an edge rusher, then hitting Mack Hollins squatting in a soft zone while throwing across his body for 8 yards on 3rd and 7.

 

Both plays are good, but they are not equal.

 

PFF tries to quantify that difference but they kinda stink at it. 

Edited December 31, 2024 by FireChans

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Allen prevents sacks in a consistent way that very few others can and I have no problem giving him credit for it. Brady did the same. They did it differently, but great QB's can't allow sacks at high rates. They're drive killers. The really good ones limit them with either how long they hold it or mobility. 

Burrow could be a 70 who misses, Matt Ryan also had a few. Rare, but it happens and I imagine the pattern is similar with bad defenses and close losses. 

The leader in QBR going back to 2006 has always been on a team that has won 12 games or more except one time - the 2016 11-5 Falcons, a team that had zero business losing the SB that year.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/qbr_year_by_year.htm

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

AV doesnt do it for me personally.

 

Theres really no stat that appreciably can tell the difference between a Joe Burrow sitting the pocket and hitting an 8 yard out on third and 7 to Chase and a Josh Allen dodging a free rusher, rolling to his right outrunning an edge rusher, then hitting Mack Hollins squatting in a soft zone while throwing across his body for 8 yards on 3rd and 7.

 

Both plays are good, but they are not equal.

Allen is an AV god. You might want to rethink that. It is not QBR.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

Five

[dave mcbride]

Just checked: going back to 2020, Allen leads all NFL players in AV since then with 75 (mahomes has 69 and jackson 60). Going back to 2019, allen is tied for the lead with mahomes, with both at 86; jackson is next with 85 (he had a monster season in 2019). 
 

Miles Garrett leads defenders with 65 from 2020- 2023. Aaron Donald put up 71 between 2018-2021 (a four-year period comp).

Edited December 31, 2024 by dave mcbride