Wildcard Weekend Weather

[leonbus23]

On 12/29/2024 at 10:35 PM, TheWeatherMan said:

So in January it’s going to be cold in Western NY, the lakes will be warmer that the ambient temperature, and somewhere, not sure where, there will be lake effect snow bands?  These hobby forecasters really going out on a limb here.
 

From an experienced forecaster…there’s not a single numerical model that’s worth a damn outside of 96 hours.  There’s probably a greater than 90% chance the long range models (including ensembles) paint a completely false solution of what actual conditions will be.  A single minuscule and under calculated variable can be the difference between a record setting cold outbreak and a weekend that’s well within the climatological norms for Orchard Park.  

 

This is an interesting post. 

 

Like you, I can get a bit annoyed or uncomfortable with "hobbyists" who make claims outside of their professional fields of study and work. For instance, my field (PhD) is Economics, and the amount of misinformation / speculation that proliferate from hobbyists about something like inflation, for example, is frustrating. 

 

Regardless, I wonder, do professional forecasters use numerical models to forecast weather beyond the 96 hours, and if so, are their forecasts reputable in any way, or is the 96 hour limit a rule, per se? Do professional forecasters simply qualify their forecasts beyond 96 hours with a disclaimer? In other words, if numerical weather models aren't worth a damn outside of 96 hours, then what do professional weather forecasters actually do? Or are weather forecasters still searching for the best numerical model? 

 

You don't have to answer these questions, and they may not be reasonable questions (since I know nothing about weather), but it is interesting. 

[WotAGuy]

On 12/30/2024 at 3:08 AM, TheWeatherMan said:

A numerical model is only as good as the data ingested into it and the forecaster initializing, verifying and manipulating it.  

Same for chicks. 

[frostbitmic]

It'll be 72 in my living room 🌴🌺 And that's what truly matters ... It'll be chilly for the players and those in attendance. Probably get a story about how it's cold in Buffalo in January, maybe even video of a partially frozen Falls... Then Mack Hollins will walk by barefoot.

 

Then they'll beat a dead Bronco...