Wildcard Weekend Weather

[leonbus23]

On 12/29/2024 at 10:35 PM, TheWeatherMan said:

So in January it’s going to be cold in Western NY, the lakes will be warmer that the ambient temperature, and somewhere, not sure where, there will be lake effect snow bands?  These hobby forecasters really going out on a limb here.
 

From an experienced forecaster…there’s not a single numerical model that’s worth a damn outside of 96 hours.  There’s probably a greater than 90% chance the long range models (including ensembles) paint a completely false solution of what actual conditions will be.  A single minuscule and under calculated variable can be the difference between a record setting cold outbreak and a weekend that’s well within the climatological norms for Orchard Park.  

 

This is an interesting post. 

 

Like you, I can get a bit annoyed or uncomfortable with "hobbyists" who make claims outside of their professional fields of study and work. For instance, my field (PhD) is Economics, and the amount of misinformation / speculation that proliferate from hobbyists about something like inflation, for example, is frustrating. 

 

Regardless, I wonder, do professional forecasters use numerical models to forecast weather beyond the 96 hours, and if so, are their forecasts reputable in any way, or is the 96 hour limit a rule, per se? Do professional forecasters simply qualify their forecasts beyond 96 hours with a disclaimer? In other words, if numerical weather models aren't worth a damn outside of 96 hours, then what do professional weather forecasters actually do? Or are weather forecasters still searching for the best numerical model? 

 

You don't have to answer these questions, and they may not be reasonable questions (since I know nothing about weather), but it is interesting. 

[WotAGuy]

On 12/30/2024 at 3:08 AM, TheWeatherMan said:

A numerical model is only as good as the data ingested into it and the forecaster initializing, verifying and manipulating it.  

Same for chicks. 

[frostbitmic]

It'll be 72 in my living room 🌴🌺 And that's what truly matters ... It'll be chilly for the players and those in attendance. Probably get a story about how it's cold in Buffalo in January, maybe even video of a partially frozen Falls... Then Mack Hollins will walk by barefoot.

 

Then they'll beat a dead Bronco...

[Just Jack]

Looked last night, high of 30, with wind chill makes it feel like 18, no snow. 

[TheFunPolice]

cold, perpetual gloom type weather 

 

But no wind it looks like, which is really the key. Temps in the high 20's + no real wind is no big deal 

[Big Turk]

5 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

cold, perpetual gloom type weather 

 

But no wind it looks like, which is really the key. Temps in the high 20's + no real wind is no big deal 

 

Yeah, seasonably cold weather for this time of year although much of the last few years has seen winter not really exist much of the time with temps in the 40s and 50s.

 

Basically, a typical January day.

 

[LabattBlue]

What happened to the brutal cold and potential piles of snow because of lake not being frozen? 😂

[Big Turk]

4 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

What happened to the brutal cold and potential piles of snow because of lake not being frozen? 😂

 

OP has had between 7-10 feet of snow already this year, what are you talking about?  Brutal cold has nothing to do with the lake being open or not...is this even a serious post?  It makes no sense.

Edited Monday at 09:44 PM by Big Turk

[TheFunPolice]

5 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yeah, seasonably cold weather for this time of year although much of the last few years has seen winter not really exist much of the time with temps in the 40s and 50s.

 

Basically, a typical January day.

 

 

It definitely seems much colder and much more consistently so than recent winters. 

[Big Turk]

Just now, TheFunPolice said:

 

It definitely seems much colder and much more consistently so than recent winters. 

 

Well, this month it does...the other months we were well above normal. In fact, 2024 shattered the record for warmest year in Buffalo history at 53.0 degrees almost a full degree above 2012's previous record of 52.1. There is only one other year on record at 52 or higher besides those two and it was 52.0

 

To break an average temperature record over the course of a year by that much is almost unheard of and is absurd.

 

But this month it looks like the party is coming to an end...had 13 months straight of above normal temps(many of them multiple degrees above normal) but it looks like this one will not be joining them unless we have a major warm up the last 10 days or so...

[LabattBlue]

15 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

OP has had between 7-10 feet of snow already this year, what are you talking about?  Brutal cold has nothing to do with the lake being open or not...is this even a serious post?  It makes no sense.

I’m talking about the first handful of posts in this thread. Sorry if I offended you Jim Cantore. 😂

Edited Monday at 09:58 PM by LabattBlue

[QCity]

9 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

OP has had between 7-10 feet of snow already this year, what are you talking about?  Brutal cold has nothing to do with the lake being open or not...is this even a serious post?  It makes no sense.

 

The OP forecasted record breaking cold followed by a bunch of posters pointing out it's ridiculous to predict that 2 weeks in advance. It's shaping up to be a normal January day in WNY.

[TBBills Fan]

On 12/31/2024 at 12:40 PM, WotAGuy said:

Same for chicks. 

Bro high five 

[Not at the table Karlos]

Great I’ll be moving back to Buffalo this weekend. Should be a great drive in. 

[strive_for_five_guy]

29 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

What happened to the brutal cold and potential piles of snow because of lake not being frozen? 😂

I’m going to predict it’s going to be hot next summer, potentially record setting at some point.  You heard it here first!

[BBills83]

On 12/29/2024 at 2:15 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

“When it’s too tough for them, it’s just right for us.”

 

                        - Jim Harbaugh

Why would you insult Marv by attributing this memorable quote to Caprain Khaki? 

[WotAGuy]

2 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I’m going to predict it’s going to be hot next summer, potentially record setting at some point.  You heard it here first!

Anybody can say this.

What about the lakes, super genius??

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 minutes ago, WotAGuy said:

Anybody can say this.

What about the lakes, super genius??

 

I’m predicting very wet.
 

[PromoTheRobot]

On 12/31/2024 at 12:34 PM, leonbus23 said:

 

This is an interesting post. 

 

Like you, I can get a bit annoyed or uncomfortable with "hobbyists" who make claims outside of their professional fields of study and work. For instance, my field (PhD) is Economics, and the amount of misinformation / speculation that proliferate from hobbyists about something like inflation, for example, is frustrating. 

 

Regardless, I wonder, do professional forecasters use numerical models to forecast weather beyond the 96 hours, and if so, are their forecasts reputable in any way, or is the 96 hour limit a rule, per se? Do professional forecasters simply qualify their forecasts beyond 96 hours with a disclaimer? In other words, if numerical weather models aren't worth a damn outside of 96 hours, then what do professional weather forecasters actually do? Or are weather forecasters still searching for the best numerical model? 

 

You don't have to answer these questions, and they may not be reasonable questions (since I know nothing about weather), but it is interesting. 

A good friend of mine is a professional meteorologist. I can ask 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, QCity said:

 

The OP forecasted record breaking cold followed by a bunch of posters pointing out it's ridiculous to predict that 2 weeks in advance. It's shaping up to be a normal January day in WNY.

 

It was not even forecasted tho...when I looked then, temps were supposed to be in the low 20s