Broncos, Ravens, Chiefs - Can the Bills run through this gauntlet.

[Drew21PA]

I’m not “afraid “ of any team in the afc to get us to the superbowl

 

what I’m skeptical about is which McDermott lead team takes us where we need to go.

 

personally?  I’m enjoying the next 3 weeks - I feel Allen will put on a show for us the next three weeks - wc weekend - Baltimore may come in and beat us - maybe they won’t - but they would have to come here so it’s better than odds for us going there. 
 

If we get through that ?  Which I think we will because this defense playing for Baltimore against PIT and HOU - I’m not sure it will sustain against the best of the best - I’m really not sure 

 

I would love going to arrowhead and facing off once again with Patty and the chiefs 

 

would be an awesome weekend

[JerseyBills]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

You would think continuity would matter to some extent? Eagles change coordinators and now are an elite defense. Ravens change coordinators and they're evolving into an elite defense. Bills have the same system for nearly a decade with a defensive guru HC and they can't stop a nose bleed. 

 

I think the Lions had the top 2 DL, top 2 LB's, and 3 of 4 secondary starters out when we played.  We had our injuries as well, but I don't think we will be seeing them even in the NFC championship game with how unhealthy they're.  So sure, they have been a great team all year, but we caught them in a very vulnerable spot and with Josh Allen going pure cyborg mode.  Then the Chiefs who we have beat in the regular season how many straight times now?

 

These are very good wins, but if you want to use those and our 12-3 record to create this massive separation between this year and years past, a lot of people just don't see it. If anything, this year is the worst iteration of the McD defenses. Our offense is the best, it is the most diverse, but the defense is unquestionably the worst by anyway you can measure them. Which is just an unacceptable downward decline. Sure Josh could go off, he could also have the ball for 15 minutes as McD gets Parcelled out of the stadium because his defense can't get a team off the field. But how Bills fans feel at this point really isn't that crazy. It's just looking behind the curtain of our record and our biggest wins and actually trying to evaluate if this team is better than it has been prior. 

Well our D has been very good at turnovers at least and 2nd half adjustments,  I still believe it is a bit crazy, we have 3 losses, 2 could've easily been wins, Beat the #1 team in both conferences. 

The difference from years past imo is how dynamic and dominant this O is, with an excellent run game and Allen, the opposing D still ha to stop us as well!

 

We held our past 2 opponents to 14 points until we got a solid lead and babich went overly soft. 

 

We're the best team in the game and I'm trying to post my bet slip, Bills to win AFC for 150$ and SB for 100$, putting my $ where my mouth is

[psuscott16]

Haven't read the whole thread, but Pitt ending up as the 7th seed isn't crazy to me. 

[Kelly to Allen]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

You would think continuity would matter to some extent? Eagles change coordinators and now are an elite defense. Ravens change coordinators and they're evolving into an elite defense. Bills have the same system for nearly a decade with a defensive guru HC and they can't stop a nose bleed. 

 

I think the Lions had the top 2 DL, top 2 LB's, and 3 of 4 secondary starters out when we played.  We had our injuries as well, but I don't think we will be seeing them even in the NFC championship game with how unhealthy they're.  So sure, they have been a great team all year, but we caught them in a very vulnerable spot and with Josh Allen going pure cyborg mode.  Then the Chiefs who we have beat in the regular season how many straight times now?

 

These are very good wins, but if you want to use those and our 12-3 record to create this massive separation between this year and years past, a lot of people just don't see it. If anything, this year is the worst iteration of the McD defenses. Our offense is the best, it is the most diverse, but the defense is unquestionably the worst by anyway you can measure them. Which is just an unacceptable downward decline. Sure Josh could go off, he could also have the ball for 15 minutes as McD gets Parcelled out of the stadium because his defense can't get a team off the field. But how Bills fans feel at this point really isn't that crazy. It's just looking behind the curtain of our record and our biggest wins and actually trying to evaluate if this team is better than it has been prior. 

 

 

Playing elite defense in the regular season compared to the playoffs is different dramatically.

 

We'll see how good Orr and the ravens defense is in Buffalo. 

 

I know what I think is going to happen. 

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, eball said:

 

Was going to say something similar.  The AFC is a 3-horse race in my opinion…it’s a roll of the dice for KC, Baltimore, and Buffalo.

 

The Bills’ chances rely almost completely on the defense stepping up and not making any stupid ST mistakes.

 

Exactly...we should handle Denver, but Baltimore & KC are a whole different challenge.  Obviously objective #1 is get our defense as healthy as possible by the WC round. There won't be an elite pass rusher that magically appears.  So McBabs will have to be more creative than ever.  Stopping Henry early will be mandatory to have any chance.  I like our chances with KC if our Nickel can slow down their TE's.  Baltimore will be the hardest game.

[H2o]

Can we? Sure, if the defense holds up their end of the bargain.

 

I worry about this defense against the Ravens more so than anyone. That Zone Read with Lamar and Henry is tough for any team, more or less one that has had trouble stopping the run for as long as I can remember. The Rams and Lions games, where we let Stafford and Goff completely shredded us in the passing game, makes me nervous as well. Heck, we just let Drake Maye throw for 261 yds against us and he has a bunch of bums around him.

 

I'm not worried about the offense that much. But Baltimore's defense is better than the Rams and Lions. I don't see Josh being able to have a shootout type of game against the Lamar if our defense is just letting the Ravens march up and down the field. 

[Success]

I wish our defense was stronger.

 

We have one of those teams that can score a ton - but if the O has an off day, I just don't know if the D can carry us to a win over the top teams.  And that happens in the playoffs - it's why high-flying offenses generally fall short in the end.

 

If we had the bye, I'd feel better - but ultimately, we'll have 4 games in a row where my guess is we have to score 30 or more.  Maybe we can get away w/ less in the 1st round, but after that, we'll have to put up a lot of points in all likelihood.

 

 

[billybob71]

They can but.... Allen gonna have to play flawless which he is capable of, the coaches are gonna have to avoid getting vastly out game planned and make key decisions in crunch time, and the D is gonna need to get some turnovers, oh and keep the run game going... And a little luck and no key injuries

Edited 12 hours ago by billybob71

[Neo]

17 hours ago, Chaos said:

to they have to play a fourth game to get to the super bowl?

I think he answered the question about “making it” by surviving a three game gauntlet by saying we’d be playing a fourth game in the gauntlet.   .   

[BeastMaster]

McDermott will put this team behind the 8 ball off the rip because if he wins the coin toss, he will choose to put the defense out there and they will likely surrender points, which is not the formula for this team to win

 

We should be taking the ball and putting teams behind to keep them from trying to run and eating up T.O.P. 

 

I do believe we have yet to see the best from our defense, so I'm not as down on them as others are, but if they are at or close to full strength and they get steamrolled again and ruin a herculean effort from Allen, I hope McDermott faces massive backlash

[Success]

I swear - every opposing fan on the internet should read this thread.

 

Whenever I check out a general NFL board, I hear so much about how "Bills fans are so cocky when they ain't won nuthin' yet!" (or similar sentiments). 

 

I really don't think I've ever seen that, here or anywhere.   We're the most "waiting for the other shoe to drop" fanbase out there.

 

[LABILLBACKER]

10 minutes ago, billybob71 said:

They can but.... Allen gonna have to play flawless which he is capable of, the coaches are gonna have to avoid getting vastly out game planned and make key decisions in crunch time, and the D is gonna need to get some turnovers, oh and keep the run game going... And a little luck and no key injuries

That's a big ask

[BRH]

3 minutes ago, BeastMaster said:

McDermott will put this team behind the 8 ball off the rip because if he wins the coin toss, he will choose to put the defense out there and they will likely surrender points, which is not the formula for this team to win

 

We should be taking the ball and putting teams behind to keep them from trying to run and eating up T.O.P. 

 

Except I remember the last time we won the toss and took the ball, we fumbled on our opening play and ended up losing to Denver.

[The Frankish Reich]

My mathematical mind (giving the Bills every benefit of the doubt) sez:

 

- Probability of beating the Broncos in OP: 80%

- Probability of beating the Ravens in OP: 55%

- Probability of beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead: 45%

 

(.8) x (.55) x (.45) = .198

 

20% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. 

 

Surprisingly, ESPN's latest (pre-Christmas) betting odds: Bills +450 to win the Super Bowl. That translates into an 18% chance. Lot of Bills support out there in the betting public. More than is really warranted in my opinion.

 

Edited 12 hours ago by The Frankish Reich

[Gunsgoodtime]

8 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

My mathematical mind (giving the Bills every benefit of the doubt) sez:

 

- Probability of beating the Broncos in OP: 80%

- Probability of beating the Ravens in OP: 55%

- Probability of beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead: 45%

 

(.8) x (.55) x (.45) = .198

 

20% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. 

 

Surprisingly, ESPN's latest (pre-Christmas) betting odds: Bills +450 to win the Super Bowl. That translates into an 18% chance. Lot of Bills support out there in the betting public. More than is really warranted in my opinion.

 

Higher than I would have it.  I would say pretty close on to 15% chance of making it, and would say around 12% chance of winning it all

[oldmanfan]

14 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

My mathematical mind (giving the Bills every benefit of the doubt) sez:

 

- Probability of beating the Broncos in OP: 80%

- Probability of beating the Ravens in OP: 55%

- Probability of beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead: 45%

 

(.8) x (.55) x (.45) = .198

 

20% chance of making it to the Super Bowl. 

 

Surprisingly, ESPN's latest (pre-Christmas) betting odds: Bills +450 to win the Super Bowl. That translates into an 18% chance. Lot of Bills support out there in the betting public. More than is really warranted in my opinion.

 

Reasonable.

[ALLEN1QB]

Who knows let's hope Baltimore loses 1st rd & KC in the 2nd.

[billybob71]

31 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

That's a big ask

Yes as I was typing it I was thinking the same thing, maybe we are all just being nervous nellies and giving other teams to much credit🤷

[Royale with Cheese]

Not concerned about the offense….worried about our 3rd down defense right now.

[Sandhill Mike]

I'm not taking the Broncos or Chargers lightly.  Each of those teams can move the ball on our defense.  It's no secret that we the most porous defensive unit in the AFC playoff picture, but I'm happy we have a power house at QB and some playmakers on offense. 

 

The Broncos have a tough D as Payton seems to be paying dividends.  After watching the Ravens against us earlier this year, then watching them again yesterday, I couldn't help wondering how on Earth they lost five games this season.  They look very, very good.  The Chefs have the gods' never ending favor, it seems.  The Steelers and Texans are going the wrong direction late in the year but I'm guessing we won't see either of them.

 

Our boys are facing a tough road and will have to earn every inch of it.