Alphadawg7 Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Yeah, he is spot on. Precisely so. Nearly everyone who's not a real top ten guy fits into the 35 - 45% range. As does Amari. It's what happens, due to variance, to guys who don't get the huge numbers of targets that the top ten guys do. You are obviously comparing him to guys who get a lot more targets. Getting that many targets smooths out the variance, and make it easier at higher target per game numbers to reach the lower numbers you are referring to. Again, look at guys outside of the true #1s and you see his numbers are well within the normal range. They just are. Again, you said this, "The number of games he has under 50, under 40, even under 20 yards is higher than what top end WR1s should have." And again, comparing him to true #1s in ingenuous. He's not one of those guys. He never was. He's never gotten the target numbers they get. You also say, "Go compare how many games Chase has under 20 yards compared to how many Copper has." And again, Cooper doesn't get the number of targets that Chase gets ... not to mention that Chase has had Burrow throwing to him rather than lesser figures who were throwing to Cooper. Oh, and will you stop pretending that I am against you as to whether we should re-sign him? If you're curious about what i think - why would you be? And yet you keep bringing it up in your replies to me - go read what I've written about it. It's not that far back. Till you do that, stop replying to me about it. I've never mentioned it since you and I started talking. Yes, few catches in the last four of his 6 games. But it's just dumb to pretend that we know why that is, and that the reason is that Cooper isn't good enough. Pure nonsense. Is it because he's injured and not as explosive as usual? Maybe. Is it because Josh isn't confident they're on the same page? Likely, IMO, but certainly that meets the Maybe Standard. Is it because they want to save him for the playoffs? Maybe. Is it because he simply hasn't had a lot of snaps? Because he hasn't. Maybe. Is it because he just isn't very good? I greatly doubt it after seeing those terrific plays he made, but t's absolutely not impossible. Could be something else. Fact is, you simply don't know, regardless of how well that fits your narrative. I don't know either, don't get me wrong. But if I've got a narrative it's that we don't know yet how well he'll do. That's far more defensible, not to mention sensible. What part about my original post did you miss where I said if he wants legit WR1 money you don't pay him? The entire point I made was that he was not in that class and yet you seem to be arguing the same thing, which is even more puzzling to why you are arguing in the first place when you seem to agree. But please stop telling me things you "think" as if they are fact, when I actually did the work and checked the facts. Amari's boom or bust rate is higher than a lot other WR's, so its really annoying when people who did not do the work sit here and argue against the work. Doesn't matter if you believe it or not...but the facts are that Coopers degree of variance has been higher than his peers throughout his career. Its not an opinion, its math. Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: You've mentioned these numbers several times, percentage of games of under40 yards and under 30 yards. Thought I would do a bit of research on that. Figured I’d start with the six guys I just mentioned above as being good receivers but not top ten true #1 types. Those gus would likely get targets far close to Cooper-type numbers. Here they are, along with the results: DeVonta Smith Under 40 17/62 (27%) Under 30 13/62 (21%) Much better than Cooper. 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: DK Metcalf Under 40 21 /96 (22%) Under 30 12 / 96 (13%) Much better than Cooper. 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Deebo Samuel Under 40 27/ 80 (34%) Under 30 23 / 80 (29%) Little better than Cooper, but he is also used completely different than Cooper and not really comparable as he runs the ball a lot to as a RB 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Brandon Aiyuk Under 40 20/ 69 (29%) Under 30 13 / 69 (19%) Much better than Cooper 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Courtland Sutton Under 40 34 /96 (35%) Under 30 25/96 (26%) Little better than Cooper and yet Cooper has always been considered in a tier higher than Sutton 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: George Pickens Under 40 16 / 47 (34%) Under 30 12 / 47 (26%) Also better than Cooper 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Metcalf looks terrific in this company, far fewer days with lower numbers. Everyone else looks grouped around the same sort of range, around 27 – 36% for under 40yards, and 19 – 26% for Under 30 yards. Exactly as you'd expect, a rough bell curve and Cooper in the midst of the biggest gathering near the middle of the curve. Cooper is worse than every WR on your list, some by a noticeable difference. Exactly what I said. 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Thought I’d check Golden Tate, an old favorite of mine, just for the hell of it, too. He’s got a few more games of lower production than Coop. Golden Tate Under 40 67/159 (42%) Under 30 43/159 (27%) Slightly worse than Cooper, but Tate was not in Coopers calls of WR either, he was at least a tier or 2 lower. 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: This is just how these kinds of numbers look. What are you talking about, you literally 100% confirmed my entire point. You listed a bunch of WR's who were either his peer or worse and Cooper was literally worse than every single one of them, several by a lot. 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Then I thought since I’m looking up favorites, why don’t I check Andre Reed. Needless to say, I figured in that era, numbers of lower games would be a bit higher, as the rules hadn’t yet been adjusted to favor the passing game yet. But as I watched Andre I always thought of him as tremendously smooth and consistent. This one’s more for fun than for the comparison, but yeah, Andre was far from consistent if you just look at his lower games, same as anyone would be Andre Reed Under 40 90/229 (39%) Under 30 63/229 (28%) Come on man, not even the same era. Comparing receivers and their yardage production from 30 years ago to today is a worthless excecise. 2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: Not as far away as I'd have expected. Hunh. I mean you just proved everything I said correct, so thanks Quote
GunnerBill Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said: Well compared to the other 5 WR that went in round 1 in 2015 he has been on another level entirely. Diggs was the only elite WR who came out of that draft. Ten years later we know exactly who these guys were as players..........and being critical of Cooper for not being elite or more consistent NOW is really pointless. What he is now is big play threat on the boundary they picked up for a 3rd round pick and cost them about $700K. It's not a mystery to me why he hasn't been better. I've never been a big fan of his. He doesn't have the same compete level that guys like Hopkins and Diggs had. Not an alpha personality. THAT is why he's on his 4th team. On some teams being a top 15 WR1 is not enough. And getting $20M to be that was too much for them. That wouldn't have been enough for Buffalo in 2020 when they traded for Diggs. The skill he brings plus the cost/price have been a great fit in 2024 though. This is 100% right IMO. He is a good receiver but has at no point been a great one. I was pro the trade and he was my guy to target even before the Bills did it with the comibation of cost and skillset required, but he has kinda been who he always is. The flip side of everyone loving his down to earth "I just love being here and I don't mind not getting the ball if we win" vibe is that he lacks that dog in him that the top receivers all have... and need. I'm still open to the Bills bringing Amari back next year - mainly because having spent the 33rd pick on one last year I'd be stunned if Beane spends one of his first 3 picks on another this year even though a boundary separator remains a need, it just isn't his MO - but it has to be in that 2 year $20-26m type territory for me. Any more than that and I am waving goodbye. 1 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said: Much better than Cooper. Much better than Cooper. Little better than Cooper, but he is also used completely different than Cooper and not really comparable as he runs the ball a lot to as a RB Much better than Cooper Little better than Cooper and yet Cooper has always been considered in a tier higher than Sutton Also better than Cooper Cooper is worse than every WR on your list, some by a noticeable difference. Exactly what I said. Slightly worse than Cooper, but Tate was not in Coopers calls of WR either, he was at least a tier or 2 lower. What are you talking about, you literally 100% confirmed my entire point. You listed a bunch of WR's who were either his peer or worse and Cooper was literally worse than every single one of them, several by a lot. Come on man, not even the same era. Comparing receivers and their yardage production from 30 years ago to today is a worthless excecise. I mean you just proved everything I said correct, so thanks More like I proved you don't know how stats work. Or more strictly, you proved it, not me. Oh, and you're dead right when you say that comparing Andre Reed is not fair because he came from a different era. Quite right. Which is why I said the exact same thing before you did. Do you actually read the posts you respond to? As for the six guys in my main comparison, though, you're dead wrong, and very obviously. Here's how the comparisons look. DeVonta's numbers are slightly better than Cooper's, but close. Both are in the center of the bell curve. Yes, DK's numbers, as I said, are a lot better. Very impressive. That's a very significant difference. Which is why I said so in my post. You say he's much better as if you're proving me wrong, when you're only agreeing with me. Again, it's as if you don't even read most of the post before you respond. Aiyuk is also better, but the difference is not large. They both fit right into the fat part of the bell curve, around 27 - 36%. You say that Deebo is used differently, and I have to admire you on that one. Excellent red herring. That's a sweet little diversion tactic, a really nice little straw man. In the passing game, they're used much the same, and in fact make an excellent comparison. Their pass yards per year are almost exactly the same, to the yard. Comparing a guy who puts up about 797 yard per year in the pass game over his career to a different guy who puts up 798 yards per year ... well, it's an excellent comparison. Duh. Now, if you threw running stats in, yeah, it would be a horrible comparison. But I didn't do that. In the passing game, they're an extremely sensible comparison. Deebo has 34% to Amari's 35% of Under 40, and 29% (higher) to Amari's 28% in Under 30. So when you say So when you say that Deebo is "a little better than Cooper," at having fewer games of lesser impact in the pass game, that is what we in the business call "wrong." Or at the absolute best, very misleading. In the real world, outside your fervid little imagination, when a guy is 1% higher at one of the two stats, and 1% lower at the other, that is virtually the same. The differences are statistically insignificant. To pretend otherwise says far more about your desperation to be right about this than it does about what the numbers actually say. Like Deebo, Courtland Sutton and George Pickens are also virtually the same as Cooper, the difference is statistically insignificant. Cooper's 35% and 28% to Sutton's 35% and 26% Cooper's 35% and 28% to Pickens& 34% and 26%. Statistically insignificant differences. Quote
fergie's ire Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 On 12/25/2024 at 2:30 AM, BillMafia716ix said: What are your thoughts on Amari Cooper so far? Two targets this past Sunday vs the Patriots. Zero targets vs. the Lions. He’s had two decent games but he seems to be invisible most of the time. I know he’s due for a contract but I feel like we can replace his production with a WR in the draft. I would like him back but I wouldn’t overpay. Probably someone has made the comment, and don't have time to read through the whole thread, but I have seen a video that highlighted just how Cooper was even against the Lions. In Campbell's long run, the Bills were in 4 by 1 with 4 eligibles to one side and Cooper to the other. Detroit had a single high safety. You would think he would be over to the side with 4 receivers or at least in the middle but, instead, he was completely shifted to Cooper's side, because, if he didn't, Cooper would be one on one with the whole side of the field to operate. So, Cook broke through the middle but because the safety was shifted over to the side (and then took a bad angle), he couldn't get to Cook. So, not only does Cooper draw defenders away from other receivers he even draws them away from runners so even if the Bills don't throw to him he's hugely impactful. What happens if they don't shift coverage to him? We saw that at the start of the KC game. 2 1 Quote
Thurman#1 Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 8 hours ago, GunnerBill said: This is 100% right IMO. He is a good receiver but has at no point been a great one. I was pro the trade and he was my guy to target even before the Bills did it with the comibation of cost and skillset required, but he has kinda been who he always is. The flip side of everyone loving his down to earth "I just love being here and I don't mind not getting the ball if we win" vibe is that he lacks that dog in him that the top receivers all have... and need. I'm still open to the Bills bringing Amari back next year - mainly because having spent the 33rd pick on one last year I'd be stunned if Beane spends one of his first 3 picks on another this year even though a boundary separator remains a need, it just isn't his MO - but it has to be in that 2 year $20-26m type territory for me. Any more than that and I am waving goodbye. Agreed with virtually all of this, Bill, until the last couple of sentences. I could be wrong of course, but I don't think Amari gets anywhere near $26M from anyone at his age and with his production this year. Now, if he absolutely destroys the playoffs, I'll be forced to eat my hat on this, but my guess is more like $18M - maybe $20M as his ceiling (excepting one of those wildly high unguaranteed years at the end of the contract that he'll never actually be on the roster for). Again, I could be wrong, but that's my guess. Quote
GunnerBill Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 9 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said: Agreed with virtually all of this, Bill, until the last couple of sentences. I could be wrong of course, but I don't think Amari gets anywhere near $26M from anyone at his age and with his production this year. Now, if he absolutely destroys the playoffs, I'll be forced to eat my hat on this, but my guess is more like $18M - maybe $20M as his ceiling (excepting one of those wildly high unguaranteed years at the end of the contract that he'll never actually be on the roster for). Again, I could be wrong, but that's my guess. Spotrac has him at $14.7m AAV. I don't always take that as gospel but he'd have to come in below that for me. I do think the upper end of that range I gave would be a smaller guarantee for clarity. If it closer to $13m per it would have to be on the basis that I have a takeable out after one year so he is basically in earn it mode. Quote
Alphadawg7 Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said: More like I proved you don't know how stats work. Or more strictly, you proved it, not me. Oh, and you're dead right when you say that comparing Andre Reed is not fair because he came from a different era. Quite right. Which is why I said the exact same thing before you did. Do you actually read the posts you respond to? As for the six guys in my main comparison, though, you're dead wrong, and very obviously. Here's how the comparisons look. DeVonta's numbers are slightly better than Cooper's, but close. Both are in the center of the bell curve. Yes, DK's numbers, as I said, are a lot better. Very impressive. That's a very significant difference. Which is why I said so in my post. You say he's much better as if you're proving me wrong, when you're only agreeing with me. Again, it's as if you don't even read most of the post before you respond. Aiyuk is also better, but the difference is not large. They both fit right into the fat part of the bell curve, around 27 - 36%. You say that Deebo is used differently, and I have to admire you on that one. Excellent red herring. That's a sweet little diversion tactic, a really nice little straw man. In the passing game, they're used much the same, and in fact make an excellent comparison. Their pass yards per year are almost exactly the same, to the yard. Comparing a guy who puts up about 797 yard per year in the pass game over his career to a different guy who puts up 798 yards per year ... well, it's an excellent comparison. Duh. Now, if you threw running stats in, yeah, it would be a horrible comparison. But I didn't do that. In the passing game, they're an extremely sensible comparison. Deebo has 34% to Amari's 35% of Under 40, and 29% (higher) to Amari's 28% in Under 30. So when you say So when you say that Deebo is "a little better than Cooper," at having fewer games of lesser impact in the pass game, that is what we in the business call "wrong." Or at the absolute best, very misleading. In the real world, outside your fervid little imagination, when a guy is 1% higher at one of the two stats, and 1% lower at the other, that is virtually the same. The differences are statistically insignificant. To pretend otherwise says far more about your desperation to be right about this than it does about what the numbers actually say. Like Deebo, Courtland Sutton and George Pickens are also virtually the same as Cooper, the difference is statistically insignificant. Cooper's 35% and 28% to Sutton's 35% and 26% Cooper's 35% and 28% to Pickens& 34% and 26%. Statistically insignificant differences. Let’s let it go…and agree to disagree. I mean it’s been beaten to death and I don’t have the time ot energy to keep breaking down everything you are wrong about again. Quote
Coach Tuesday Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 /thread Without Cooper they’d have very little shot of going all the way. He opens up everything. 2 5 1 Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 6 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said: He just needs targets. you just don't get it do you....lol Quote
Coach Tuesday Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Chicken Boo said: He just needs targets. Amazingly he doesn’t. It’s remarkable that he’s able to focus so intently while only getting targeted sporadically. Edited December 29, 2024 by Coach Tuesday 2 Quote
FireChans Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 7 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said: /thread Without Cooper they’d have very little shot of going all the way. He opens up everything. We need to shut down TBD WR threads until we figure out what is going on 1 Quote
Chicken Boo Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said: Amazingly he doesn’t. It’s remarkable that he’s able to focus so intently while only getting targeted sporadically. I mean, to meet other's expectations. The talent and impact is unquestionable. The stats only come as his opportunities increase. Quote
Aussie Joe Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 Think that catch made me feel a bit more confident about giving him a 2 years $20-25m deal … Quote
Saint Doug Posted December 29, 2024 Posted December 29, 2024 I’ll take him if he realizes he’ll just be another spoke in the wheel and be paid as such. He’ll have to take a reasonable contract and don’t think this means WR1 money. Quote
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