Blackbeard Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Doc said: Josh said this in the post-game presser last weekend. Exactly. There is a reason the offense was vanilla. 7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: I'm not "inserting it"...it's fact. he has 12 catches since the end of October. when did the Bills "clinch"? Who else have they shut down like this? what other team has "hidden" their "top WR" the past 2 months in anticipation of the playoffs? he said that when talking specifically about why he's not looking Cooper's way? Yes you’re inserting it. You’re arguing w me about something and adding/embellishing your argument as you go. You don’t bring in a shiny new toy mid season just to show the elite teams precisely how you’re going to use him. And you CERTAINLY don’t do it in the midst of the playoffs. Why do you think the Lions were criticized for there unnecessarily blowing teams out? They were showing their hand, that’s why. This is NFL 101. I can assure you that you will see a large dose of Cooper in the playoffs, along with things not yet revealed. Edited December 28, 2024 by Blackbeard Quote
Thurman#1 Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 (edited) On 12/28/2024 at 1:44 AM, Alphadawg7 said: No he is not spot on. I’ve done the variance on other WRs and Amari is worse, especially in the really bad games under 40, 30, and 20 yards. I’ve said this about Cooper his whole career. It’s why both the Raiders and Dallas traded him. Raiders didn’t want to pay him what he was going to get as a free agent and Dallas over paid him as an elite WR1 and then he was wildly inconsistent and didn’t live up to the contract. So no, MDH is right there is variance…but I never said there wasn’t variances. He keeps doing “spot checks” on partial data then claiming Cooper is on par with other top WR1’s and it’s just not correct. Again, Cooper was a good add, he brought a dimension we needed. But we are talking about signing him back as a FA here. And he is on the wrong side of 30, drops a lot of passes over his career, and is statistically more likely to put up less than 40 yards than he is more than 70 yards. And that data was generated during the prime of his career, he is again now on the wrong side of 30. In 4 of his last 6 games he has a TOTAL of 25 yards for an avg of 6.25 ypg playing with Josh Allen. So the point in my original point stated you sign him back if it’s a cost friendly deal. If he wants legit WR1 type money it’s a hard pass, you can replicate his weekly decoy status and occasional relevant game elsewhere for cheaper, like the draft where we have 3 picks in first 2 rounds plus 3 more in round 4. Yeah, he is spot on. Precisely so. Nearly everyone who's not a real top ten guy fits into the 35 - 45% range. As does Amari. It's what happens, due to variance, to guys who don't get the huge numbers of targets that the top ten guys do. You are obviously comparing him to guys who get a lot more targets. Getting that many targets smooths out the variance, and make it easier at higher target per game numbers to reach the lower numbers you are referring to. Again, look at guys outside of the true #1s and you see his numbers are well within the normal range. They just are. Again, you said this, "The number of games he has under 50, under 40, even under 20 yards is higher than what top end WR1s should have." And again, comparing him to true #1s in ingenuous. He's not one of those guys. He never was. He's never gotten the target numbers they get. You also say, "Go compare how many games Chase has under 20 yards compared to how many Copper has." And again, Cooper doesn't get the number of targets that Chase gets ... not to mention that Chase has had Burrow throwing to him rather than lesser figures who were throwing to Cooper. Oh, and will you stop pretending that I am against you as to whether we should re-sign him? If you're curious about what i think - why would you be? And yet you keep bringing it up in your replies to me - go read what I've written about it. It's not that far back. Till you do that, stop replying to me about it. I've never mentioned it since you and I started talking. Yes, few catches in the last four of his 6 games. But it's just dumb to pretend that we know why that is, and that the reason is that Cooper isn't good enough. Pure nonsense. Is it because he's injured and not as explosive as usual? Maybe. Is it because Josh isn't confident they're on the same page? Likely, IMO, but certainly that meets the Maybe Standard. Is it because they want to save him for the playoffs? Maybe. Is it because he simply hasn't had a lot of snaps? Because he hasn't. Maybe. Is it because he just isn't very good? I greatly doubt it after seeing those terrific plays he made, but t's absolutely not impossible. Could be something else. Fact is, you simply don't know, regardless of how well that fits your narrative. I don't know either, don't get me wrong. But if I've got a narrative it's that we don't know yet how well he'll do. That's far more defensible, not to mention sensible. Edited December 28, 2024 by Thurman#1 1 Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 3 minutes ago, Blackbeard said: Exactly. There is a reason the offense was vanilla. did he say that after the Seattle game? How about KC? SF? Were in "vanilla" when they put up 42 (and lost) in LA? Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 12 minutes ago, FireChans said: The class of guys that he was supposed to be in when he was drafted #4 overall? You are right that the predraft expectation of Cooper is a little irrelevant at this point because it was 10 years ago. But the reason he is on his 4th team and been traded 3 times is because while he’s a good WR with the ability to put up monster individual performances, he’s never shown the ability to be as consistent of a producer as he should have been. Amari Cooper is inarguably one of the top 6-7 players picked #4 overall in the last 25 years.......so you are wrong about that. That's a feels thing not a real thing. Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 6 minutes ago, Blackbeard said: Exactly. There is a reason the offense was vanilla. Yes you’re inserting it. You’re arguing w me about something and adding/embellishing your argument as you go. You don’t bring in a shiny new toy mid season just to show the elite teams precisely how you’re going to use him. And you CERTAINLY don’t do it in the midst of the playoffs. Why do you think the Lions were criticized for there unnecessarily blowing teams out? They were showing their hand, that’s why. This is NFL 101. I can assure you that you will see a large dose of Cooper in the playoffs, along with things not yet revealed. What other team brought in a shiny new toy midseason and didn't really use him (we are not in the midst of the playoffs, by the way)? Is that what KC is doing with Hopkins (for example)? Leading up to the playoffs (say, the past 4 games), who have the Lions "unnecessarily blown out"? Prior to that, they did this because Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson don't understand NFL 101? Quote
GoBills808 Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: did he say that after the Seattle game? How about KC? SF? Were in "vanilla" when they put up 42 (and lost) in LA? he definitely draws coverage, i dont think it's arguable tbh...Rams game there are multiple examples of defenders taking him and other guys coming free Hollins first down first drive is an example, granted it's second read but you can see who the priority is on defense...looks very much like play is designed for Cooper crosser 1 Quote
Blackbeard Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 (edited) 9 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: did he say that after the Seattle game? How about KC? SF? Were in "vanilla" when they put up 42 (and lost) in LA? They need wins. Recall cooper was injured as well. The game against Pats was importantly, just not vital. 1 seed was likely a pipe dream. I see why things were vanilla. And both coach and qb confirmed, whether you take their word or not. So you stated earlier that you basically go balls out for every game. Do you think that occurs tomorrow and next Sunday? Cmon man. The Bills should keep playbook closed as much as possible. Edited December 28, 2024 by Blackbeard Quote
HappyDays Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 24 minutes ago, FireChans said: It’s been confusing honestly why he hasn’t been better. Very good at a lot of things, not elite at any one thing. That's generally what defines the lower tier of #1 WRs. With Brady's offense specifically we have enough of a sample size to conclude that he doesn't get outside WRs involved all that much unless the defense is begging for it. After he took over last year Diggs and Davis fell drastically in the pecking order. Brady's scheme is designed to find the best possible matchup which often comes against LBs or safeties, or schematic mismatches created with rubs, legal picks, etc. That isn't a philosophy conducive to volume production from boundary WRs, for better or worse. Also he wants his WRs on the field to be high level run blockers which is not Cooper's game at all, and I'm sure that's a big reason why his snap count has been lower than anticipated. For those reasons I don't worry too much about Cooper's production. Criticisms of his production are a criticism of the scheme/philosophy, not of the player IMO. The type of offense we run isn't going to give him those volume stats unless the opposing defense plays us in a very specific way. The important thing is that he gives us a factor that doesn't exist without him on the roster. In an offense designed to create mismatches, we previously had no mismatch player on the boundary. Now we have one in Cooper which allows our offense to be extremely versatile and difficult to defend with scheme alone, and he gives us a legit option when we absoutely need to throw the ball downfield like on those two critical plays against KC that ultimately led to TDs. I wish we were willing to give Cooper (and Coleman to some extent) more 1v1 opportunities downfield instead of only calling those shots when absolutely necessary, but again that's because of Brady's scheme not the players themselves. And maybe it's for the best given how horrible our defense has been. Ball control and high efficiency is our only means of beating playoff caliber opponents because we have zero margin for error from the other side of the ball. 5 Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 Just now, GoBills808 said: he definitely draws coverage, i dont think it's arguable tbh...Rams game there are multiple examples of defenders taking him and other guys coming free Hollins first down first drive is an example, granted it's second read but you can see who the priority is on defense...looks very much like play is designed for Cooper crosser everyone draws coverage. he's a great route runner, to be sure. I think Josh just doesn't look for him as much as guys he's comfortable with (Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman). It's probably as simple as that. No need for people to conjure up these alternative scenarios where he is sucking up all the coverage when he's in there, or that he is on ice until they "break the glass" come the playoffs. It would make FAR more sense to give Cooper a ton of targets leading up to the playoffs so Josh can feel comfortable with finding him. The rest of this seems like nonsense. Keeping it "vanilla", simply by keeping a 32 year old journeyman WR on the sidelines for much of the season.... ? Why not just bench Allen?? It would get vanilla real quick.. Quote
GoBills808 Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 Just now, Mr. WEO said: everyone draws coverage. he's a great route runner, to be sure. I think Josh just doesn't look for him as much as guys he's comfortable with (Kincaid, Shakir, Coleman). It's probably as simple as that. No need for people to conjure up these alternative scenarios where he is sucking up all the coverage when he's in there, or that he is on ice until they "break the glass" come the playoffs. It would make FAR more sense to give Cooper a ton of targets leading up to the playoffs so Josh can feel comfortable with finding him. The rest of this seems like nonsense. Keeping it "vanilla", simply by keeping a 32 year old journeyman WR on the sidelines for much of the season.... ? Why not just bench Allen?? It would get vanilla real quick.. I agree they need to manufacture more looks for Cooper. It's probably my #1 most important thing heading into the playoffs I don't want to derail this thread but from watching some of his stuff back on all22 it looks to me that they don't quite know how to use him...some of the route combos when he's in are very weird 1 Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 5 minutes ago, Blackbeard said: They need wins. Recall cooper was injured as well. The game against Pats was importantly, just not vital. 1 seed was likely a pipe dream. I see why things were vanilla. And both coach and qb confirmed, whether you take their word or not. So you stated earlier that you basically go balls out for every game. Do you think that occurs tomorrow and next Sunday? Cmon man. The Bills should keep playbook closed as much as possible. Sure, at this point. But we are talking about all of the other games he has played in. The "vanilla" explanation makes no sense whatsoever for those other games. And what's not "vanilla" about just sending your best WR out there to beat guys and make big plays? Just now, GoBills808 said: I agree they need to manufacture more looks for Cooper. It's probably my #1 most important thing heading into the playoffs I don't want to derail this thread but from watching some of his stuff back on all22 it looks to me that they don't quite know how to use him...some of the route combos when he's in are very weird I think this is the most likely reason he hasn't some much here. The rest of this stuff...nah. Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 17 minutes ago, FireChans said: He was SUPPOSED to be elite. He was the #1WR in that class by a mile. It’s been confusing honestly why he hasn’t been better. Well compared to the other 5 WR that went in round 1 in 2015 he has been on another level entirely. Diggs was the only elite WR who came out of that draft. Ten years later we know exactly who these guys were as players..........and being critical of Cooper for not being elite or more consistent NOW is really pointless. What he is now is big play threat on the boundary they picked up for a 3rd round pick and cost them about $700K. It's not a mystery to me why he hasn't been better. I've never been a big fan of his. He doesn't have the same compete level that guys like Hopkins and Diggs had. Not an alpha personality. THAT is why he's on his 4th team. On some teams being a top 15 WR1 is not enough. And getting $20M to be that was too much for them. That wouldn't have been enough for Buffalo in 2020 when they traded for Diggs. The skill he brings plus the cost/price have been a great fit in 2024 though. 2 1 Quote
Blackbeard Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 7 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said: Sure, at this point. But we are talking about all of the other games he has played in. The "vanilla" explanation makes no sense whatsoever for those other games. And what's not "vanilla" about just sending your best WR out there to beat guys and make big plays? I think this is the most likely reason he hasn't some much here. The rest of this stuff...nah. My original posting was about the Pats game and why he was quiet. In my opinion, which is confirmed by josh and Sean, is that they’re keeping a lower profile. And why wouldn’t they? They have a great opportunity with cooper to do so. Enough arguing. It’s nice outside. Quote
FireChans Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 17 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Amari Cooper is inarguably one of the top 6-7 players picked #4 overall in the last 25 years.......so you are wrong about that. That's a feels thing not a real thing. Well that’s quite specific. Why don’t we compare Amari to WR’s drafted top 5 or 10 in the last 25 years? Or even last 12? Where would he rank then? Here’s the top 10 WR’s from 2022 to 2010: London Wilson Chase Waddle Smith Corey Davis M Williams John Ross Amari Kevin White Watkins Evans Tavon Austin Justin Blackmon AJ Green Julio Jones Where is Amari on that list? Julio, AJ, Evans, Chase all clear him inarguably. He’s obviously better than the busts on that list. He’s in that Smith Wilson, Waddle tier to me. Anywhere from 5th to 7th in the last 12 years of top 10 WR’s. But definitely not in the top 4. Quote
HappyDays Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 30 minutes ago, Blackbeard said: I can assure you that you will see a large dose of Cooper in the playoffs, along with things not yet revealed. I don't know about that honestly. Our scheme is very well defined at this point. We aren't suddenly going to become a bombs away downfield passing offense in the playoffs. When Cooper was producing at an elite level after Joe Flacco took over they had gone full gunslinger offense. The only time we've seen anything close to that since adding Cooper was when we fell behind against the Titans and Rams - and it's no coincidence that those were his two highest volume games. If we're playing with a lead or in a back and forth tight game, the offense will be more of the same. Quote
Mr. WEO Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 2 minutes ago, Blackbeard said: My original posting was about the Pats game and why he was quiet. In my opinion, which is confirmed by josh and Sean, is that they’re keeping a lower profile. And why wouldn’t they? They have a great opportunity with cooper to do so. Enough arguing. It’s nice outside. yeah no one is really arguing about that particular game in this discussion.... scroll up, I'm headed outside! Quote
GoBills808 Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 1 minute ago, HappyDays said: I don't know about that honestly. Our scheme is very well defined at this point. We aren't suddenly going to become a bombs away downfield passing offense in the playoffs. When Cooper was producing at an elite level after Joe Flacco took over they had gone full gunslinger offense. The only time we've seen anything close to that since adding Cooper was when we fell behind against the Titans and Rams - and it's no coincidence that those were his two highest volume games. If we're playing with a lead or in a back and forth tight game, the offense will be more of the same. yes i agree, i dont either. the time to integrate him was the first week he got here i do know that he's the only guy who has the emergency button ability to get open vs man for those easy first down looks diggs provided. that does show up on film. they're just struggling to fit his skillset into the offense holistically rn and i'm hesitant to believe that's going to change just because we get to the postseason the bigger shame honestly is that they didn't recognize the need for him (or anyone similar) earlier 1 Quote
BADOLBILZ Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 58 minutes ago, FireChans said: Well that’s quite specific. Why don’t we compare Amari to WR’s drafted top 5 or 10 in the last 25 years? Or even last 12? Where would he rank then? Here’s the top 10 WR’s from 2022 to 2010: London Wilson Chase Waddle Smith Corey Davis M Williams John Ross Amari Kevin White Watkins Evans Tavon Austin Justin Blackmon AJ Green Julio Jones Where is Amari on that list? Julio, AJ, Evans, Chase all clear him inarguably. He’s obviously better than the busts on that list. He’s in that Smith Wilson, Waddle tier to me. Anywhere from 5th to 7th in the last 12 years of top 10 WR’s. But definitely not in the top 4. Well you said Amari Cooper hasn't played up to the class of being selected #4 overall............so it was no more specific than your claim. In reality......he's clearly proven to be one of the best #4 picks of the last 25 years. Because the majority of them don't have great careers. Not even picked that high. So he's definitely in-class. As for the rest of what you wrote........what is your point, specifically? I don't disagree with where you ranked him in that random group but there isn't really a statistical field of any size that is going to show Cooper as having a disappointing career. That's all feels. Same issue @Alphadawg7 had in this thread with trying to align a specific statistical field with his feelings regarding Cooper's career......and then having to move the goal post when those two things didn't mesh. Everything is relative. Cooper has had a very good career. He has been a WR1. But he's never been great. Quote
FireChans Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 12 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said: Everything is relative. Cooper has had a very good career. He has been a WR1. But he's never been great. I agree with this lol. Quote
Thurman#1 Posted December 28, 2024 Posted December 28, 2024 On 12/27/2024 at 4:32 AM, Alphadawg7 said: Cooper has 153 career games: He has under 50 yards 69 times (45% of his career games) - 54 of those games were under 40 yards (35% of his career games) - 42 of those games were under 30 yards. (28% of his career games) You've mentioned these numbers several times, percentage of games of under40 yards and under 30 yards. Thought I would do a bit of research on that. Figured I’d start with the six guys I just mentioned above as being good receivers but not top ten true #1 types. Those gus would likely get targets far close to Cooper-type numbers. Here they are, along with the results: DeVonta Smith Under 40 17/62 (27%) Under 30 13/62 (21%) DK Metcalf Under 40 21 /96 (22%) Under 30 12 / 96 (13%) Deebo Samuel Under 40 27/ 80 (34%) Under 30 23 / 80 (29%) Brandon Aiyuk Under 40 20/ 69 (29%) Under 30 13 / 69 (19%) Courtland Sutton Under 40 34 /96 (35%) Under 30 25/96 (26%) George Pickens Under 40 16 / 47 (34%) Under 30 12 / 47 (26%) Metcalf looks terrific in this company, far fewer days with lower numbers. Everyone else looks grouped around the same sort of range, around 27 – 36% for under 40yards, and 19 – 26% for Under 30 yards. Exactly as you'd expect, a rough bell curve and Cooper in the midst of the biggest gathering near the middle of the curve. Thought I’d check Golden Tate, an old favorite of mine, just for the hell of it, too. He’s got a few more games of lower production than Coop. Golden Tate Under 40 67/159 (42%) Under 30 43/159 (27%) This is just how these kinds of numbers look. Then I thought since I’m looking up favorites, why don’t I check Andre Reed. Needless to say, I figured in that era, numbers of lower games would be a bit higher, as the rules hadn’t yet been adjusted to favor the passing game yet. But as I watched Andre I always thought of him as tremendously smooth and consistent. This one’s more for fun than for the comparison, but yeah, Andre was far from consistent if you just look at his lower games, same as anyone would be Andre Reed Under 40 90/229 (39%) Under 30 63/229 (28%) Not as far away as I'd have expected. Hunh. Quote
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