Just re watched yesterday's pats game

[Einstein]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I know overall this year we are blitzing infrequently. I'd like to look at the Rams game again though those numbers look low to me. 

 

I thought we should have rushed 3 more against the Rams. That was the right plan IMO.

 

Yeah go back and watch it, I think you’ll be surprised. We barely blitzed at all on 3rd/4th down. They were eating us alive because Stafford had time. The rare time we blitzed, it definitely sped the Rams up but they made some amazing catches.

 

Im going to release a free Bills stat website next week. I’m finishing up the coding but you’ll be able to drill down these stats.

[Peace Frog]

17 hours ago, mjt328 said:

D-Line struggles to get pressure, and can't get off blocks against the run.

Linebackers struggle to cover space quickly and tackle.

Cornerbacks/Safeties are out of position, and fail to make plays when the ball is in the air.

 

Just once can we be prepared for a screen pass?  Can we go a game without committing Pass Interference on third down, and instead actually knock the ball away?

 

This defense really does nothing well consistently.  I don't know how anyone believes this will go well in the playoffs.

 

Vanilla or not, the tackling by this defense pretty much all season has been pure a**.  I'd dare say Cam Lewis is the worst tackler on the team.

[NewEra]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I know overall this year we are blitzing infrequently. I'd like to look at the Rams game again though those numbers look low to me. 

 

I thought we should have rushed 3 more against the Rams. That was the right plan IMO.

 

I think he is just saying they are both catches that need to be made. And he is right.

Yes- both need to be made-  Criticizing and/or giving a pass is my debate.  
 

i criticize Josh Allen for missing throws.  At the same time I give him a pass.  I criticize Shakir for his drops.  And then I give him a pass.  When you make an egregious error/drop in the most critical times of a season, there are no passes in my book.  Those are the plays that matter.  Those 2 plays are not comparable.  One is worthy of a pass.  One is not

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/opp.htm#advanced_defense::18

 

Actually  Bills D doesn't miss tackles. Check the numbers

[Scott7975]

17 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

we are near the bottom in 3rd down defense. 30th in the league.
 

the question I have is what makes a good third down defense. I can’t tell based on how the teams are ranked (eg, KC is not good, yet Miami is?).

 

here are the stats:

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

 

Its conversion percentage. So if a team allows a lot of third downs to be converted then they are bad. Bills have allowed 60% over the last 3 games. Thats is god awful terrible.

[Scott7975]

16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is perception. The statistical reality is the Bills have been a consistently good 3rd down team under this staff. This year they are like 6 percentage points worse than their worst year previously under McD.

 

They were 18th last year and 19th in 2020. They are only 3% points worse than 2020 this year btw. I wouldn't call that consistently good. McD's defense has been consistently bad at 3rd and long specifically. I'd like to see stats on that but can't find them anywhere.

Edited Tuesday at 03:50 PM by Scott7975

[GunnerBill]

45 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yeah go back and watch it, I think you’ll be surprised. We barely blitzed at all on 3rd/4th down. They were eating us alive because Stafford had time. The rare time we blitzed, it definitely sped the Rams up but they made some amazing catches.

 

Im going to release a free Bills stat website next week. I’m finishing up the coding but you’ll be able to drill down these stats.

 

I count three 3rd down blitzes (all of which were converted btw - 2 on catches (both Nacua - first 3rd down of the half and the final TD) and 1 on defensive hold by the DB left 1v1 with Nacua (Douglas). And four 2nd down blitzes. Just watched all the Rams plays from that 2nd half back and STILL think we blitzed way too much and exactly one worked. We had greater success when we dropped 3 and played coverage. 

 

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

They were 18th last year and 19th in 2020. They are only 3% points worse than 2020 this year btw. I wouldn't call that consistently good. McD's defense has been consistently bad at 3rd and long specifically. I'd like to see stats on that but can't find them anywhere.

 

They were not 19th in 2020. I've posted the full breakdown above (and now below)

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It really hasn't. 

 

2017 - 17th - 38.3% 3rd downs given up

2018 - 8th - 36.5% 

2019 - 7th - 35.8%

2020 - 13th - 39.8%

2021 - 1st - 30.8%

2022 - 7th - 37.5%

2023 - 19th - 38.6%

2024 - 30th - 44.4%

 

If you want to say it was on a downward trend last year, fine. That's fair. But the Bills in the Frazier era were consistently excellent on 3rd down. And because they gave up the odd 3rd and long people's perceptions are warped. 

 

This year 3rd down defense has been a significant issue. And if they don't find a way to fix it then it's gonna hurt them in the post season. 

 

@Scott7975

Edited Tuesday at 03:55 PM by GunnerBill

[Scott7975]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I count three 3rd down blitzes (all of which were converted btw - 2 on catches (both Nacua - first 3rd down of the half and the final TD) and 1 on defensive hold by the DB left 1v1 with Nacua (Douglas). And four 2nd down blitzes. Just watched all the Rams plays from that 2nd half back and STILL think we blitzed way too much and exactly one worked. We had greater success when we dropped 3 and played coverage. 

 

They were not 19th in 2020. I've posted the full breakdown above 

 

@Scott7975

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct?date=2021-02-08

 

 

19th - 41.70%

Edited Tuesday at 03:56 PM by Scott7975

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct?date=2021-02-08

 

 

Check Pro Football Reference. 

 

And NFL.com has the same numbers. 191 faced, 76 converted. 39.8%

 

Your source is wrong. 

Edited Tuesday at 04:02 PM by GunnerBill

[Lagoon Blues]

Just my 2cents but the single digit temps probably had something to do w/ some of the drops.  

[finn]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

We are the 3rd least blitzing team in the entire NFL this year. 

Maybe that's just as well if Babich is going to continue blitzing the slowest player, least athletic on the defense in Hamlin. I don't have the numbers, but it seems Bernard is a far more effective blitzer. 

[Scott7975]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Check Pro Football Reference. 

 

Yeah ok. I trust that site more. I only looked at the other site because it was linked in the thread and I have used it for other stuff. Not sure why they have it wrong. I also referenced NFL.com. Have to do the math yourself but it does check out to 39.8%. Even still, I would not call their 3rd down defense consistently good when they have had 4 years outside the top 10 and 4 years inside it. Thats not consistent in any definition.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yeah ok. I trust that site more. I only looked at the other site because it was linked in the thread and I have used it for other stuff. Not sure why they have it wrong. I also referenced NFL.com. Have to do the math yourself but it does check out to 39.8%. Even still, I would not call their 3rd down defense consistently good when they have had 4 years outside the top 10 and 4 years inside it. Thats not consistent in any definition.

 

So I think you can throw out 2017. That was Rex's players running their scheme. From 2018 to 2022 - i.e. the Frazier years, they were consistently excellent. When in a five year spell your best year is first and your one year outside the top 10 you are 13th that is consistently excellent. Last year it dipped. That's fair, but was still fine, middle of the pack. This year it has been horrid. And % wise it is a big slide. from 2020 being the "worst" of 39.8 to be almost 5 percentage points worse..... this is the first year 3rd down defense has legitimately been a "problem" for the Bills under this regime. And it has been all year. We were tracking above 40% even before the past three weeks. 

[BearNorth]

Last drive by Pats - Bills were flagged for 5 penalties, 4 giving a new set of downs, 2 DPI on Elam in the End Zone, One on Ingram, Helmet to Helmet hit on Bernard, and encroachment on Smoot.  25 of 75 yards and 2 DPI's on 3rd & goal.

[Einstein]

55 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I count three 3rd down blitzes (all of which were converted btw - 2 on catches (both Nacua - first 3rd down of the half and the final TD) and 1 on defensive hold by the DB left 1v1 with Nacua (Douglas). And four 2nd down blitzes. Just watched all the Rams plays from that 2nd half back and STILL think we blitzed way too much and exactly one worked. We had greater success when we dropped 3 and played coverage.

 

@Scott7975

 

Ill check the API for errors but as it stands we were only counted for 2 blitzes on 3rd/4th down in the second half.

 

EDIT; I just realized that of course it will show 2 because the penalty makes the 3rd irrelevant. But either way, 3 out of 10 is certainly not blitzing almost every 3rd down. I also noticed that both the catches are just incredible plays. The blitz forced the Rams to make circus catches rather than routine catches.

 

I didn’t pull 2nd down stats because we were all talking about 3rd down defense.

Edited Tuesday at 04:48 PM by Einstein

[leonbus23]

The defense is not good. 

 

The Pats* game was unusual though. The Bills had 6 PI calls against them. The only other game close to that was the Rams game with 5 PI calls against.

 

On top of the PI calls, the Bills had two illegal formations, one offensive holding and an unnecessary roughness. All very inconsistent and subjective calls. 

 

Along with defensive improvement, the Bills need to have the refs call less panalities on them. 

 

Again, the defense is not good, but this sort of officiating certainly contributed to the closeness of the game.

[msw2112]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

We get zero pressure on third down with a four man rush.

 

And Babich/McD refuse to blitz on third down.

 

So it’s the perfect storm - defensive backs have to cover for 5+ seconds and that’s just not possible.

 

 

Particularly with 3 backup players starting in the defensive backfield.

[All_Pro_Bills]

6 minutes ago, leonbus23 said:

The defense is not good. 

 

The Pats* game was unusual though. The Bills had 6 PI calls against them. The only other game close to that was the Rams game with 5 PI calls against.

 

On top of the PI calls, the Bills had two illegal formations, one offensive holding and an unnecessary roughness. All very inconsistent and subjective calls. 

 

Along with defensive improvement, the Bills need to have the refs call less panalities on them. 

 

Again, the defense is not good, but this sort of officiating certainly contributed to the closeness of the game.

It looked like the officiating crew took NE and the 14 points on Sunday.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Ill check the API for errors but as it stands we were only counted for 2 blitzes on 3rd/4th down in the second half.

 

EDIT; I just realized that of course it will show 2 because the penalty makes the 3rd irrelevant. But either way, 3 out of 10 is certainly not blitzing almost every 3rd down. I also noticed that both the catches are just incredible plays. The blitz forced the Rams to make circus catches rather than routine catches.

 

I didn’t pull 2nd down stats because we were all talking about 3rd down defense.

 

The final TD wasn't an incredible play. The first catch from Nacua, yes, I'll give you they did get heat on Stafford and he made a great throw and Nacua made a great catch. But the final one was a routine blitz beater and the 2nd down plays were the same. See the pressure, throw to the hole. 

 

The 3rd blitz on 3rd down isn't irrelvant - it was a 3rd down given up on a blitz but can understand why the penalty makes it drop out statistically. 

 

I honestly challenge anyone to watch that 2nd half back and say "blitzing more was the answer." To me it was the absolute worst thing they could have done.

[Einstein]

 

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I honestly challenge anyone to watch that 2nd half back and say "blitzing more was the answer." To me it was the absolute worst thing they could have done.

 

I would accept that challenge.

 

They were scoring regardless - literally every drive except for one. I would much rather take my chances blitzing.

 

Yes - they may score more quickly. But they may also force a turnover. Regardless, either of those are better than dying a slow death. The absolute worst thing we could do is allow them 10 play drives that take 5+ minutes off the clock.

Our entire defensive philosophy can be summarized as “hope the opposing offense makes a mistake”. Well, they weren’t making mistakes that week. So you have to do *something* to try and force them into a mistake.

I would have blitzed them relentlessly.