Just re watched yesterday's pats game

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I think a lot of that perception comes from how ridiculous some of those occasional conversions are.

Look at the one last week vs DET. They've got them locked up in 3rd/17 in their own end, about to get the ball back with a chance to put a 4th qrtr nail in the coffin. Suddenly you get a tipped ball that ends up going for a 60-70 yrd TD which puts the Lions right back in the game.

Plays like that stand out and tend to skew reality, imo.

 

Also there have been a lot of plays over the years in critical moments where the defense has failed to make the play they needed to make to pull out a win. Last year in particular it was a huge problem. Fans don't remember every single 3rd down, they remember the big moments. More often than not this defense fails in those moments which contributes to a general feeling of anti-clutchness amongst the fanbase, regardless of what the stats look like on a year to year basis.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

5 minutes ago, Dr.Sack said:

Gonzalez is and other top tier corners are allowed to be very handsy. A Bills defense known for zone and timing don’t get that break. I’m sure NFL officials have some bit of game prep before each matchup, who to watch out for, what kinds of penalties teams normally commit. As it was the penalties were 13 to 5. With 6 of 13 being pre-snap. Of the PIs I felt Elam’s final penalty where he was guarding 2 defenders was understandable. That said giving up a TD or committing a PI is something I’m sure coaches will love with. Didn’t Maye nearly fumble away the ensuing snap? As it was expecting smaller 5’9” Cam Lewis to guard a 6’5” TE is not the matchup Babich should want. 

take a look though even at elam’s last PI. At 14:22 in the video. I am not even sure that should have been PI. The receiver jumped straight up. Normally, for an under thrown ball, the receiver has to make some effort to go back and through the defender to get that PI. That receiver didn’t, and the ball was basically at Elam’s legs. 
 

It didn’t look great, But, again, that is normally not called like that.

 

 

[Shaw66]

I wasn't too upset about the game. I hated that they kept giving up third downs; it almost looked like the defense thought it was third and ten and gave up nine every time it was third and seven. 

 

I wasn't upset for several reasons. Divisional game.  A lot of AFC east games a re like that - tough tests. I expected the Pats to be ready to play tough. 

 

The weather.  Cold weather games are tough games, and they favor the run game.  Bills don't have a real power run game. 

 

Bills didn't give up a lot of points. Second half, the Bills shut them down pretty well. 

 

Possibly a bit of a post-Lions let down. 

 

Bills never really opened up the offense. They looked like they wanted to run their basic plays, beat the Patriots just by being a better team, and get out of there. 

 

Bills were still trying out their backup defensive backs, and they were working on their linebacker issues, too. 

 

Now, of course, there are are all kinds of arguments about why maybe they should have come in with the pedal to the metal, why the defense is really flawed, etc., but I don't think we saw the team we'll see in a couple of weeks. 

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

The Rams game was basically a preseason defense, no adjustments.

 

 

 

 

If you actually watched the game, instead of just guessing, you’d see there were multiple adjustments in the 2nd half.  Sadly none of them worked.  

[Starr Almighty]

7 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Exactly. Can't criticize Diggs for the Chiefs drop and give Shakir a pass

If Shakir plays like he did yesterday in a playoff game he will be criticized by the entire board you can count on that. As for what I think personally he had a terrible game yesterday hopefully it's out of his system for the post season

7 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

 

 

7 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 06:47 AM by Starr Almighty

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Simon said:

 

I think a lot of that perception comes from how ridiculous some of those occasional conversions are.

Look at the one last week vs DET. They've got them locked up in 3rd/17 in their own end, about to get the ball back with a chance to put a 4th qrtr nail in the coffin. Suddenly you get a tipped ball that ends up going for a 60-70 yrd TD which puts the Lions right back in the game.

Plays like that stand out and tend to skew reality, imo.

 

This year it IS reality though. 3rd down is an issue. 

 

It is previous years where the perception and reality don't match up.

[Eastport bills]

15 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I think Shakir had a couple of tough catches, one in the end zone and other on the over the head ball, it was not over a should it was like directly over his head.  THe level of difficultly on those was quite high.  THe screen was a flub by Allen, the ball slipped out of his hands.  I have no concern for Shakir moving forward.

Shakir makes that over the head catch most of the times because he catches everything. Just a Bills team sleepwalking through their 1st home game after a tough stretch of tough opponents and playing down to their competition. I expect more of the same the next 2 weeks along with resting dinged up starters. If KC beats Pittsburgh you’ll see a going through the motions effort to just get a win against a really depleted Jets team.

[finn]

14 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Exactly. Can't criticize Diggs for the Chiefs drop and give Shakir a pass

Of course you can. The Diggs drop came at the most critical moment of the most critical game of the season; it was a big-time choke and pretty much doomed the Bills' chances. The Shakir drop was just another play in just another game. 

[finn]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I wasn't too upset about the game. I hated that they kept giving up third downs; it almost looked like the defense thought it was third and ten and gave up nine every time it was third and seven. 

 

I wasn't upset for several reasons. Divisional game.  A lot of AFC east games a re like that - tough tests. I expected the Pats to be ready to play tough. 

 

The weather.  Cold weather games are tough games, and they favor the run game.  Bills don't have a real power run game. 

 

Bills didn't give up a lot of points. Second half, the Bills shut them down pretty well. 

 

Possibly a bit of a post-Lions let down. 

 

Bills never really opened up the offense. They looked like they wanted to run their basic plays, beat the Patriots just by being a better team, and get out of there. 

 

Bills were still trying out their backup defensive backs, and they were working on their linebacker issues, too. 

 

Now, of course, there are are all kinds of arguments about why maybe they should have come in with the pedal to the metal, why the defense is really flawed, etc., but I don't think we saw the team we'll see in a couple of weeks. 

I agree, but I'm also resigning myself to the probability that no one is going to rescue the defense in the playoffs: not Hyde or Milano, or Calais Campbell or some other released veteran. Cole Bishop won't suddenly blossom into a star, Lewis Cine won't be a revelation, and we'll remain paper thin at linebacker and safety, where the starters are no more than adequate. My hopes for the defense lie on their record of forcing turnovers and, oddly, Von Miller, who may finally be ready to resume the level of play he showed his first eight games here. Plus, I like what Babich has been doing: even on its weakest days, his players have shown resilience and spirit, and he has adjusted astutely on the fly. Given the hand he was dealt, he's done well.

 

Bottom line: I think this defense will do its part. They may not carry the team at any point, but they won't let it down, either.

[Since1981]

The D just needs to rest and get healthy. You can’t play creative zone with random guys back there. And then even switch scheme, to man/man. it was a perfect storm of injury, scheme and a low importance game vibe. 

[Einstein]

16 hours ago, Coach Tuesday said:

3rd down defense has been a problem for a whole stretch of games now.  They need to get it sorted ASAP.

 

We get zero pressure on third down with a four man rush.

 

And Babich/McD refuse to blitz on third down.

 

So it’s the perfect storm - defensive backs have to cover for 5+ seconds and that’s just not possible.

 

[Repulsif]

16 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

Third downs are where they have fallen off this year.  The redzone too.

 

 

not only this year

this has been quite a patern for years now

whatever the yards to go, can be 3 or 18, I feel they just won't hold in a 3rd down

[JP51]

16 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

we are near the bottom in 3rd down defense. 30th in the league.
 

the question I have is what makes a good third down defense. I can’t tell based on how the teams are ranked (eg, KC is not good, yet Miami is?).

 

here are the stats:

 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-third-down-conversion-pct

Honestly our loose pass coverage and lack of ability to get to the QB I see as the biggest problem..  

15 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Exactly. Can't criticize Diggs for the Chiefs drop and give Shakir a pass

I agree it is what it is... the whole offense didnt look ready except for Cook, Dawkins and Spencer... its one game for a guy that was lights out all year... everyone gonna have a game like that... the key is how do you respond to it if you are that player... I suspect Shakir will be just fine... 

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

We get zero pressure on third down with a four man rush.

 

And Babich/McD refuse to blitz on third down.

 

So it’s the perfect storm - defensive backs have to cover for 5+ seconds and that’s just not possible.

 

 

I mean they really don't. Against the Rams 2nd half they blitzed almost every 2nd and 3rd down. 

 

To my mind they have blitzed too much the last 3 weeks and it has been part of the struggle on defense. Just as it was middle of last year when McDermott went blitz happy and lost to Mac Jones and Russell Wilson while sending the house. 

 

Put that nonsense away, get back to our fundamentals and play proper defense. I get it that with backups in the secondary they trust that less but it is the only way to get things corrected IMO.

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, Repulsif said:

not only this year

this has been quite a patern for years now

whatever the yards to go, can be 3 or 18, I feel they just won't hold in a 3rd down

I wish they'd just pretend it is second down. They'd play much better.

[CSBill]

Bottom line: There were a lot of self inflicted wounds that kept this game close -> dropped passes, missed tackles, dumb penalties, and not staying with the run game.

 

But I win is a win. Good teams can have bad days and still win. I feel confident things will go much better this weekend. 

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, Repulsif said:

not only this year

this has been quite a patern for years now

whatever the yards to go, can be 3 or 18, I feel they just won't hold in a 3rd down

 

It really hasn't. 

 

2017 - 17th - 38.3% 3rd downs given up

2018 - 8th - 36.5% 

2019 - 7th - 35.8%

2020 - 13th - 39.8%

2021 - 1st - 30.8%

2022 - 7th - 37.5%

2023 - 19th - 38.6%

2024 - 30th - 44.4%

 

If you want to say it was on a downward trend last year, fine. That's fair. But the Bills in the Frazier era were consistently excellent on 3rd down. And because they gave up the odd 3rd and long people's perceptions are warped. 

 

This year 3rd down defense has been a significant issue. And if they don't find a way to fix it then it's gonna hurt them in the post season. 

[Einstein]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean they really don't. Against the Rams 2nd half they blitzed almost every 2nd and 3rd down. 

 

It may have seemed that way, but it’s not true.

 

We blitzed on only 2 of the Rams 10 3rd/4th down plays in the second half. 

 

And only 1 time of the 6 attempts in the 4th quarter.

 

We are the 3rd least blitzing team in the entire NFL this year. 

 

We dropped defensive linemen back into coverage (only rushing 3), almost as many times as we blitzed.

[NewEra]

15 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Exactly. Can't criticize Diggs for the Chiefs drop and give Shakir a pass

Are you comparing the Diggs drop vs KC  to Shakirs drop in December vs the Pats with next to nothing in the line?  
 

legacy’s are built in the playoffs. The regular season means nothing if you can’t make plays in the playoffs.  This is a poor comparison imo.

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

It may have seemed that way, but it’s not true.

 

We blitzed on only 2 of the Rams 10 3rd/4th down plays in the second half. 

 

And only 1 time of the 6 attempts in the 4th quarter.

 

We are the 3rd least blitzing team in the entire NFL this year. 

 

We dropped defensive linemen back into coverage (only rushing 3), almost as many times as we blitzed.

 

Yea I know overall this year we are blitzing infrequently. I'd like to look at the Rams game again though those numbers look low to me. 

 

I thought we should have rushed 3 more against the Rams. That was the right plan IMO.

Just now, NewEra said:

Are you comparing the Diggs drop vs KC  to Shakirs drop in December vs the Pats with next to nothing in the line?  
 

legacy’s are built in the playoffs. The regular season means nothing if you can’t make plays in the playoffs.  This is a poor comparison imo.

 

 

 

 

I think he is just saying they are both catches that need to be made. And he is right.