Breakdown - Decision to PLAY STARTERS or REST STARTERS in Final Week of Season (Week 18)

[YoloinOhio]

Rest them please

[peterpan]

4 hours ago, mannc said:

And if Steelers and Ravens both lose on Wednesday, rest starters for the last two games?

If that happened, I would rest everyone for the Jest, then play the starters v NE for the first half or so, just to stay sharp.  Two weeks off is too much, teams always come out flat 

[MAJBobby]

I am going on the limb and saying doesn’t even matter what happens around the league. Josh Allen will start the last two regular season games. 
 

I am thinking at least one drive each. Maybe a QTR each. But he will start each of the remaining games. 

[ticketssince61]

6 hours ago, K-9 said:

If either getting the #1 seed or the threat of losing the #2 seed is a possibility in week 18, the starters need to play. Otherwise, they get the week off. 

 

100%. After your post, the mods should have closed down the thread, since this sums up every possibility in one sentence

[ProcessTruster]

3 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

I don't like the idea of facing the Ravens full stop, let alone having to travel to Baltimore to do so. Any upper hand the Bills can have, take it.

Edited Monday at 11:55 PM by ProcessTruster

[ChasBB]

43 minutes ago, ticketssince61 said:

 

100%. After your post, the mods should have closed down the thread, since this sums up every possibility in one sentence

  7 hours ago, K-9 said:

If either getting the #1 seed or the threat of losing the #2 seed is a possibility in week 18, the starters need to play. Otherwise, they get the week off.

 

   and

 

3 hours ago, ngbills said:

Simply put - win next week and see what Chiefs do. 

 

Haha, agree - my verbose post boiled down to either of the sentences above, save for maybe scenario 6.  I'd like to see Bills go starters all the way vs. the Jets just because I want to see at least one more game between Josh Allen & Aaron Rogers, no-holds-barred.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

We should need 1 more win to lock up the 2. I figure we play to win the Jets game then Mitch or White play in week 18. I’m figuring we win this week and then you don’t see anyone important until wildcard weekend. Which we probably can still win that last game won’t backups but I assume we go all in regardless Sunday. If we win, everyone rests

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Everyone plays to win now matter what this week. Can't rest Allen for two weeks. 

If the #1 or #2 seed are still in question then everyone plays week 17.

If they can't win the #1 seed and they are locked into #2 then rest everybody week 17

[Dr.Sack]

KC aside, in all likelihood the Bills need to win one more game to guarantee the 2 seed, assuming Baltimore beats a crippled Texans team. Week 18 probably won’t mean anything if KC continues their near perfect run of winning 1 score games. 

[frostbitmic]

Go Bills

Go Steelers

Go Texans

 

They'll know tomorrow if they have a shot at the #1 seed, they can also lock in the #2 seed if Pitt and Balt both lose. The game plan vs the Jests, who plays and how much, will likely depend on what happens tomorrow.

[Simon]

17 hours ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I'd argue health > home game.

 

I agree with this, but in my mind home games are also less important than maintaining a fine edge in regards to timing and execution.

Calling off the dogs like they did last weekend is not something they can keep doing and still expect to be at their best three weeks from now.

The old adage "If you're not getting better, you're getting worse" became an old adage for a reason.

It's one of the trickier balancing acts in sports, imo.

[clayboy54]

In my mind, there's always a fine line between staying sharp vs losing your edge. They work tirelessly to build focus and hone their skills almost daily. Resting risks all of that.

 

I believe that players who are banged up need to rest and heal. The rest of the team needs to practice and play as in any normal week. This includes Josh.

 

No way would I risk coming out flat in the 1st round. You simply cannot just flip a switch off and on in this league.

[Doc]

13 hours ago, Dr.Sack said:

KC aside, in all likelihood the Bills need to win one more game to guarantee the 2 seed, assuming Baltimore beats a crippled Texans team. Week 18 probably won’t mean anything if KC continues their near perfect run of winning being helped to win 1 score games. 

 

FIFY

[Simon]

2 minutes ago, clayboy54 said:

In my mind, there's always a fine line between staying sharp vs losing your edge.

 

hehehe, I beat you by 1 minute 

[GunnerBill]

I'd play my guys this week whatever happens. I'd rest my guys week 18 unless the #1 seed is in play. 

[Brandon]

As well as they had been playing offensively prior to this past game,  I wouldn't do anything differently.  Play the starters and prepare as if it's any other game. 

 

Once you lose focus and momentum,  often it's difficult to get it back.  I wouldn't cede that advantage voluntarily. 

[muppy]

22 hours ago, ChasBB said:

Decision to PLAY STARTERS or REST STARTERS in Final Week of Season (Week 18):

(All scenarios below based on week 17 outcomes)

 

Scenarios if Bills win in Week 17:

 

1. If Bills win & Chiefs lose in week 17 …
       PLAY STARTERS in week 18
          Try for the #1 seed
          Bills win & Chiefs loss in week 18 gives Bills 2-club tie-breaker based on head-to-head

 

2. If Bills win & Chiefs win in week 17 …
       REST STARTERS in week 18
          13th win locks #2 seed and #1 seed no longer obtainable

 

Scenarios if Bills lose in Week 17:

 

3. If Bills lose, Ravens lose & Steelers win in week 17 …
       PLAY STARTERS in week 18
          Try for 13th win to lock #2 seed
          Bills loss & Steelers win in week 18 gives Steelers 2-club tie-breaker based on conference record

 

4. If Bills lose, Ravens win & Steelers lose in week 17 …
       PLAY STARTERS in week 18
          Try for 13th win to lock #2 seed
          Bills loss & Ravens win in week 18 gives Ravens 2-club tie-breaker based on head-to-head

 

5. If Bills lose, Ravens win & Steelers win in week 17 …
       PLAY STARTERS in week 18
          Try for 13th win to lock #2 seed
          Bills loss, Ravens win & Steelers win in week 18 gives Steelers #2 seed based on ...

             Divisional tie-breaker between Ravens & Steelers applied first and Steelers win 2-club tie-breaker with Ravens based on common games

             Steelers would additionally win 2-club tie-breaker with Bills based on conference record

 

6. If Bills lose, Ravens lose & Steelers lose in week 17 …
       REST STARTERS in week 18

       Could rest starters in week 17, too, since outcome of Ravens and Steelers games known 4 days prior to playing week 17

          Twelve wins locks the #2 seed in this scenario and a 13th win would not change seeding

Nice work.  These equations make it plain and common sensical in its conclusions. You gave this a lot of thought and effort

 

The bottom line is we want  as healthy a roster as we can possibly have going into the playoffs.  I think if the outcomes are cut and dried in the end (no brainier decisions) the players sit and heal up. The fans might be bitter to miss out on seeing a favorite player in a final game.  But Our considerations are way back burner as far as Im concerned.

 

What is Best for our  Bills FTW

[machine gun kelly]

We’ll find out by tomorrow night so kind of no point in going through every scenario.  I’ll watch the games, and think about it Thursday.  These outcomes dictate a lot.

 

What does make sense as a general rule is if people are injured and iffy to play, make sound decisions whether to pay or not any starter.  It depends on these backups at which position, and make sure we are healthy in the playoffs.  The balance is we also need our players to remain sharp.

 

My bottom line is at this point I trust McBeane.

[Since1981]

Physical rest + Planning. 
these guys get more from physical rest after 20 weeks. This isn’t the 1970s. 

[HardyBoy]

On 12/23/2024 at 3:15 PM, Bimmer323i said:

I say rest em.. Were not gonna get the one seed cause I can’t see those lucky chiefs losing 2 in a row… They’ll get some lucky bull#### call or the quarter back from the other team will get hurt and they’ll squeak out another win… There luckier than Brady and the patriots were back in the day

 

I don't think those Pats teams were lucky...*