Breakdown - Decision to PLAY STARTERS or REST STARTERS in Final Week of Season (Week 18)

[ChasBB]

Decision to PLAY STARTERS or REST STARTERS in Final Week of Season (Week 18):

(All scenarios below based on week 17 outcomes)

 

Scenarios if Bills win in Week 17:

 

1. If Bills win & Chiefs lose in week 17 …
       PLAY STARTERS in week 18
          Try for the #1 seed
          Bills win & Chiefs loss in week 18 gives Bills 2-club tie-breaker based on head-to-head

 

2. If Bills win & Chiefs win in week 17 …
       REST STARTERS in week 18
          13th win locks #2 seed and #1 seed no longer obtainable

 

Scenarios if Bills lose in Week 17:

 

3. If Bills lose, Ravens lose & Steelers win in week 17 …
       PLAY STARTERS in week 18
          Try for 13th win to lock #2 seed
          Bills loss & Steelers win in week 18 gives Steelers 2-club tie-breaker based on conference record

 

4. If Bills lose, Ravens win & Steelers lose in week 17 …
       PLAY STARTERS in week 18
          Try for 13th win to lock #2 seed
          Bills loss & Ravens win in week 18 gives Ravens 2-club tie-breaker based on head-to-head

 

5. If Bills lose, Ravens win & Steelers win in week 17 …
       PLAY STARTERS in week 18
          Try for 13th win to lock #2 seed
          Bills loss, Ravens win & Steelers win in week 18 gives Steelers #2 seed based on ...

             Divisional tie-breaker between Ravens & Steelers applied first and Steelers win 2-club tie-breaker with Ravens based on common games

             Steelers would additionally win 2-club tie-breaker with Bills based on conference record

 

6. If Bills lose, Ravens lose & Steelers lose in week 17 …
       REST STARTERS in week 18

       Could rest starters in week 17, too, since outcome of Ravens and Steelers games known 4 days prior to playing week 17

          Twelve wins locks the #2 seed in this scenario and a 13th win would not change seeding

Edited 18 hours ago by ChasBB
Clarity

[K-9]

If either getting the #1 seed or the threat of losing the #2 seed is a possibility in week 18, the starters need to play. Otherwise, they get the week off. 

[mannc]

And if Steelers and Ravens both lose on Wednesday, rest starters for the last two games?

[ChasBB]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

And if Steelers and Ravens both lose on Wednesday, rest starters for the last two games?

Yes, could rest starters for both games (or maybe not play starters for entire game in week 17, but still give them some work and then rest all starters in week 18).  Bills would be locked into #2 seed, so nothing really to be gained the last two games in this scenario.

Edited 22 hours ago by ChasBB
Clarity

[Bimmer323i]

I say rest em.. Were not gonna get the one seed cause I can’t see those lucky chiefs losing 2 in a row… They’ll get some lucky bull#### call or the quarter back from the other team will get hurt and they’ll squeak out another win… There luckier than Brady and the patriots were back in the day

[Doc]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

And if Steelers and Ravens both lose on Wednesday, rest starters for the last two games?

Naybe play the starters for half of the game against the Jets and sit them for the Patriots.

 

[LEBills]

I’ve seen enough bumped Josh Allen elbows this year that I will be very happy if we know the two seed is set for us on Wednesday and we can rest any starters we want against the scrub jets and pats. One seed would be the best but getting two weeks off and the two seed sounds good too.

[ngbills]

Simply put - win next week and see what Chiefs do. 

[DrDawkinstein]

 

We've already been resting guys the last 2 games. Of course we will rest guys the next 2 as well.

 

Now, what remains to be seen is WHO and to what extent.

 

If Chiefs beat the Steelers this week, then we rest guys the next 2 weeks, and maybe Josh doesnt play at all week 18. Not real happy with his elbow contusion on his throwing arm at this point. Being healthy in the playoffs is more important than winning games right now.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I think they were smart to manage injuries yesterday. 
 

Last year they were all the way back before Week 18 against Miami (minus Milano) and down there we lost Gabe Davis, Taylor Rapp, Dodson ripped his shoulder, Douglas tore his MCL. 
 

And then we all know the story the following week against Pittsburgh. 

[UKBillFan]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

We've already been resting guys the last 2 games. Of course we will rest guys the next 2 as well.

 

Now, what remains to be seen is WHO and to what extent.

 

If Chiefs beat the Steelers this week, then we rest guys the next 2 weeks, and maybe Josh doesnt play at all week 18. Not real happy with his elbow contusion on his throwing arm at this point. Being healthy in the playoffs is more important than winning games right now.

 

Not if the Ravens beat the Texans, as they'd still be in the hunt for two. The Bills would have to beat the Jets to lock in the second seed in that scenatio.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, UKBillFan said:

 

Not if the Ravens beat the Texans, as they'd still be in the hunt for two. The Bills would have to beat the Jets to lock in the second seed in that scenatio.

 

Health is still the biggest factor for me, even over seeding and home games. JMO.

 

 

Edited 21 hours ago by DrDawkinstein

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

I’m fairly certain you won’t see Josh sitting for a whole game just to rest.  It isn’t his style whether we like it or not. He plays a full game against the Jets and at least the first half of Week 18.

[BillytheKid]

I think they would play the starters the first half against the Jets then sit them 2nd half and sit them against Pats last game if Chiefs win on Wednesday. You don’t want to sit them for 2 whole games. Teams have done that before and it’s backfired more times then not because the team comes out rusty and they lose. So the smart thing to do is let them play at least the first half against the Jets.
 

Pittsburgh will definitely be playing hard to try to win their division though on Wednesday as they still have the tie breaker over Baltimore and it sounds like Pickens will be back for them at receiver. 

Also: 

If Cincinnati beats Denver this week in Cincy, you would have a scenario where the Broncos need to beat KC to get into the playoffs, playing in Denver and KC still trying to get the 1 seed, so will be interesting to see how Wednesday goes. 

Edited 21 hours ago by BillytheKid

[Ya Digg?]

You play the starters as long as whatever seed they are is still in doubt. A second home game is incredibly valuable, and you can’t sit the guys for too long 

[nucci]

if locked in you sit them

[UKBillFan]

2 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Health is still the biggest factor for me, even over seeding and home games. JMO.

 

 

 

I don't like the idea of facing the Ravens full stop, let alone having to travel to Baltimore to do so. Any upper hand the Bills can have, take it.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, Ya Digg? said:

You play the starters as long as whatever seed they are is still in doubt. A second home game is incredibly valuable, and you can’t sit the guys for too long 

 

I'd argue health > home game.

 

I would have much rather played last years playoff game in KC if it meant we would have been totally healthy. I think we win in KC with a complete team, lose at home with the injuries.

[njbuff]

If the Chiefs beat the Steelers, the Bills will probably still go balls to the wall against the Jets simply because they weren’t up to snuff against NE.

 

But anybody who is everybody will NOT be playing in the finale.

 

That’s the way I see it.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, UKBillFan said:

 

I don't like the idea of facing the Ravens full stop, let alone having to travel to Baltimore to do so. Any upper hand the Bills can have, take it.

 

Fair. I get it. I'm just right across the fence from you.