3rd and Short and Corners

[Virgil]

Anyone else find themselves jaw-dropping shocked at our success rate on big plays when it's 3rd and short lately?  I understand that many teams will take a shot on 3rd and short if they know they plan to go for it on 4th down, but this feels different to me.

 

In the last two games alone, there were quite a few plays where Josh contributed to big gaines by hitting some crazy throws, that I would say he misses in previous years.  And, to me, this is where Josh has really taken the next step.  Not only his accuracy on these throws, but the situations in which he is hitting them.   Corner routes, especially without a lot of separation, are incredibly difficult as the defender is directly between the QB and receiver. 

 

The one pass that stands out to me the most is the corner route to Knox against the Lions for 30+ yards.  That throw was absolutely money.  I think most QB's miss  that throw more than they make it.  Josh is dropping those passes in a bucket.  Granted, some of the wheel route throws were finger tip catches to Knox and Johnson, but completions nonetheless.  And yes, Coleman adjusted his route on the 50 yard bomb, but if you only saw the tail end of that play, you would have never assumed it was a deep pass with the angle the pass came in and how it hit Coleman over the shoulder.

 

I really didn't think Josh could amaze me anymore with his talent.  I thought I'd seen it all.  But his confidence, his accuracy, and this new accuracy he's showing is next level.  If ever there were a moment to appreciate what we have, and only at 28 years old, now is the time.

Edited Thursday at 05:04 PM by Virgil

[Big Turk]

11 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Anyone else find themselves jaw-dropping shocked at our success rate on big plays when it's 3rd and short lately?  I understand that many teams will take a shot on 3rd and short if they know they plan to go for it on 4th down, but this feels different to me.

 

In the last two games alone, there were quite a few plays where Josh contributed to big gaines by hitting some crazy throws, that I would say he misses in previous years.  And, to me, this is where Josh has really taken the next step.  Not only his accuracy on these throws, but the situations in which he is hitting them.   Corner routes, especially without a lot of separation, are incredibly difficult as the defender is directly between the QB and receiver. 

 

The one pass that stands out to me the most is the corner route to Knox against the Lions for 30+ yards.  That throw was absolutely money.  I think most QB's miss  that throw more than they make it.  Josh is dropping those passes in a bucket.  Granted, some of the wheel route throws were finger tip catches to Knox and Williams, but completions nonetheless.  And yes, Coleman adjusted his route on the 50 yard bomb, but if you only saw the tail end of that play, you would have never assumed it was a deep pass with the angle the pass came in and how it hit Coleman over the shoulder.

 

I really didn't think Josh could amaze me anymore with his talent.  I thought I'd seen it all.  But his confidence, his accuracy, and this new accuracy he's showing is next level.  If ever there were a moment to appreciate what we have, and only at 28 years old, now is the time.

 

I think you mean Kincaid 

[Max Fischer]

I will say, "not really" surprised.  Fans of other teams probably feel the same was about Allen and the Bills offense than we do about 3rd and Short when competing against Mahomes and Jackson. Your gut tells you they will get the first down because they are so difficult to defend.  Man or zone?  How to defend against the QB run or scramble?  It's such a dangerous down, especially now that KC, Ravens and Bills may go for a 4th and short on their own side of the field. 

 

I think most teams almost "concede" a third and short to avoid getting pasted by game breaking play.  2nd and Short is even more of a nightmare. 

[Charles Romes]

In the Singletary days I used to dread second and short because we had no plays.  On second, Singletary would slow-foot it to line and Morse/Saffold etc would get pushed back for between a -1 to 1 yard gain then Allen would take a massive shot on third.  

[finn]

Call me a homer, but when people similarly rave about Mahomes' passes, they seem to mostly be talking about trick shots, like sidearm, falling-down, shovel passes or alley-oops, not incredible throws like the ones you're describing here. I mean, they're cute, but they're not jaw-dropping. See for yourself. Is there any throw on this compilation we haven't seen Allen make? Or, to put it another way, do you agree that half of these throws wouldn't be among Allen's top 30?

 

(Off to see my therapist about why my guy always has to be the best... 😧)

Edited Wednesday at 09:56 PM by finn

[BearNorth]

2 minutes ago, finn said:

 do you agree that half of these throws wouldn't be among Allen's top 30?

 

I will say the barely forward pass to Shakir for the 5th TD, was very Mahomsian, as was the called-back TD to Kincaid

[finn]

13 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

I will say the barely forward pass to Shakir for the 5th TD, was very Mahomsian, as was the called-back TD to Kincaid

Looking forward to the day when extraordinary passes are labeled "Allenian." (Hey, I like the sound of that!)

[Virgil]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

I think you mean Kincaid 

I think there was one to Knox as well, but maybe I’m wrong. 

[Big Turk]

20 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I think there was one to Knox as well, but maybe I’m wrong. 

 

Was it the one where he did the double point and then first down point? That's the one I was talking about...

 

Knox had a deep out that went for 19 on 1st and 20 and then that one hander late in the game

[SoCal Deek]

12 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Was it the one where he did the double point and then first down point? That's the one I was talking about...

 

Knox had a deep out that went for 19 on 1st and 20 and then that one hander late in the game

I was sure the refs would throw a flag when he pointed at the two defenders. 

[Virgil]

31 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

Was it the one where he did the double point and then first down point? That's the one I was talking about...

 

Knox had a deep out that went for 19 on 1st and 20 and then that one hander late in the game

 

Ah, okay.  It was not the double point.  Knox was in the first two drives I think.  Both were great

[msw2112]

1 hour ago, Virgil said:

I think there was one to Knox as well, but maybe I’m wrong. 

 

There was definitely (at least) one to Knox, which was a very good throw, but an even better catch.

Edited Thursday at 01:02 AM by msw2112

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

I was sure the refs would throw a flag when he pointed at the two defenders. 

 

Yeah I was surprised he didn't get a taunting penalty.

[JP51]

14 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Yeah I was surprised he didn't get a taunting penalty.

Totally me too... plus it was a point which the NFL has been handing out fines cause it looks like a gun... 

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, Virgil said:

I think there was one to Knox as well, but maybe I’m wrong. 

 

I was wondering who is Williams, as in " finger tip catches to Knox and Williams"  The only Williams on the team right now being Dorian, far as I know - and if he's taking the field as a receiver we're in Big Trouble

 

There was definitely a one-hand pass to Knox that was a brilliant catch by him

[Virgil]

45 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I was wondering who is Williams, as in " finger tip catches to Knox and Williams"  The only Williams on the team right now being Dorian, far as I know - and if he's taking the field as a receiver we're in Big Trouble

 

There was definitely a one-hand pass to Knox that was a brilliant catch by him

I meant Johnson, not Williams.   I always confuse those generic names 

[Shaw66]

This is an interesting point, and I think you're correct. 

 

I commented somewhere that the Bills went heavy early in the season on all sorts of screens and rubs and other gimmicks to get the ball in the hands of Shakir or Samuel or any of the others (Kincaid, Knox, Coleman all were targeted some). As the weeks went by, teams started locking down that stuff, playing tighter, fighting through blocks etc. Several weeks ago, the Bills went away from those plays and now throw them only occasionally. But teams still know that if they play soft on the outside on short yardage, the Bills will just throw it out there and take the necessary yards, so the opponents still have to get up tight to stop those quick passes to the outside.  

 

What we saw on Sunday in Detroit is that the Bills are now taking advantage of that tight coverage in short yardage situations by going over the top of the defense. It's really demoralizing to a defense to give up 15, 20, 25 yards on third and three, and that's what happened to Detroit. 

 

It's all about play design and execution. Brady has the right design, and we're now seeing Josh in more or less full control of what's happening out there. The result is an offense that has looked unstoppable for a few weeks. 

[BearNorth]

On 12/18/2024 at 3:47 PM, Max Fischer said:

I think most teams almost "concede" a third and short to avoid getting pasted by game breaking play.  2nd and Short is even more of a nightmare. 

The 66 yarder to St. Brown was a 3rd & 17, In 99% of games played that would have been a game breaker.  Fortunately at the time Bills had built a 3 TD cushion, which was barely enough.