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Demographics and Real Estate Value


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I am correct.

 

I was surfing the web, and was looking at houses in Williamsville. While doing so, I came across a mansion in "East Amherst." Mind you, I am not totally sure where that is, despite staying at the Hampton Inn in Amherst for 5 or 6 consecutive years.

 

The house was BRICK. It had a huge property, a jaccuzzi and a beautiful in-ground pool. The cost? $349,000 asking price! This would just about buy a handyman special on Long Island! That house would cost well over a million dollars on Long Island, and the taxes would be WAY higher, perhaps $12,000 per year or more.

NYC Police Officers are retiring by the thousands. They are selling their houses and moving to Fla., NC, and VA in HUGE numbers. There are developments that consist largely of retired NYC cops. Now, many are going to SC as well.

I am told that in California, retirees are packing it in and going to Idaho and Montana. I believe this. I am thinking that at some point, the bubble will burst in terms of supporting illegal aliens. Their medical costs alone will cripple places such as LA, NYC, San Fran and Long Island. Couple this with school taxes, etc. and I do not see how this can last.

 

The point to this rambling post? I would move to WNY tomorrow if my wife would agree. She will not, at least for now. She wants to remain close to her family, and I respect this. Perhaps at some point things will change.

That said, I believe you people who live up there will be pleasantly surprised by a huge spike in real estate values. WNY is culturally diverse. The food is very good (sorry folks, it is better in NYC) :doh: and the people are extremely nice. There are lots of schools, and they are cheap for NYS residents. I know about the snow, but NYC is not exactly tropical. I cannot get over the price of that mansion, which is worth about the same as my small cape.

 

Yeah, I truly believe that WNY will see better times in terms of economics, and that those of you who own property there will catch a windfall. I hope to join you some day. :doh:

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I was there two weeks ago visiting family and I tell you buddy, it's a nice place to visit for about three days. I agree about the positives you list (the water sucks tho, even after treatment, and Blue Cheese? Ugh.). I saw a lot of nice homes for sale, but there's probably a reason why they're leaving. You pass by all of the "Wayne County Blah Blah Blah" signs and you realize that the tax situation (relative to wages) with four layers of govt to support isn't going to get better b/c it's like trying to put toothpaste back in the tube. Jim Croce had it right when he sang "New York's Not My Home."

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I don't think a lower than average cost of housing is indicitive of a pending economic boom. Real estate is relatively cheap in WNY because the economy is poor (relative to the rest of the nation), and the population continues to decline.

 

It could be a useful tool in a kit used to lure businesses into the area, but so far it hasn't been.

 

If they continue to welcome casino gambling into the area, it will only get worse.

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I cracked up over an article about an "estate" somewhat out a ways, perhaps Geneseo, asking price 750,000....what cracked me up was not the house but that after a year in Sea-Tac the first thought that popped into my head was "hmmm not bad". And then I thought back to when I was living in Rochester some ten years ago...this same estate would probably have been worth that much THEN ... very sad, although someone moving from another area of the country is going to get a great bargain.

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I cracked up over an article about an "estate" somewhat out a ways, perhaps Geneseo, asking price 750,000....what cracked me up was not the house but that after a year in Sea-Tac the first thought that popped into my head was "hmmm not bad".  And then I thought back to when I was living in Rochester some ten years ago...this same estate would probably have been worth that much THEN ... very sad, although someone moving from another area of the country is going to get a great bargain.

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This is my point Debbie. A person who owns a home in an "exclusive" reigon could sell it, relocate to WNY, and purchase a better home for less than half of what they sell their current home for.

I did a google search and came away with the link below. The way I see it (an admitted novice mind you) is that residents of NY and Cal. are leaving in huge numbers for places such as Utah. UTAH!! They are being replaced of course with primarily non tax paying illegal aliens.

Cold weather aside, WNY has a lot to offer and a person could live like a king on $100 K per year, or so it seems, especially if they could purchase a nice home and have no mortgage.

 

Fastest Growing States

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This is my point Debbie. A person who owns a home in an "exclusive" reigon could sell it, relocate to WNY, and purchase a better home for less than half of what they sell their current home for.

I did a google search and came away with the link below. The way I see it (an admitted novice mind you) is that residents of NY and Cal. are leaving in huge numbers for places such as Utah. UTAH!! They are being replaced of course with primarily non tax paying illegal aliens.

Cold weather aside, WNY has a lot to offer and a person could live like a king on $100 K per year, or so it seems, especially if they could purchase a nice home and have no mortgage.

 

Fastest Growing States

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I know - I was agreeing with you. I can pay 475,000 for an acre in the San Juans up here or....I could pay the same and get a nice house in a lake in WNY and probably bank about 150k. Weather doesn't bother me. We have three requirements: skiing, football and reasonably skilled healthcare providers/facilities. WNY has all of those.

 

My mom lives on much less than 100k a year and owns her own home. Granted she doesn't take the Grand Tour on an annual basis, but she could.

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Bill, not sure where in Virginia they are retiring to. But a house like that, that was as close to the city as Williamsville is, in a good beighboodhood, would be at least a million dollars.

 

From an Economic standpoint, and if you like the weather in retirement, Buffalo isn't a bad place to be. Too much government and taxes could kill you but with retirement income only it wouldn't be too bad, and yeah would be okay. Plus you could see the Bills play and get cheap seats. Mind you I would probably get some friends and buy an indoor box, just because I don't like that much cold anymore.

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Bill, not sure where in Virginia they are retiring to.  But a house like that, that was as close to the city as Williamsville is, in a good beighboodhood, would be at least a million dollars.

 

"Beighboodhood"? :angry::doh::P Holy elephant sh--, that's such a bad typo, it even has typos itself...

 

From an Economic standpoint, and if you like the weather in retirement, Buffalo isn't a bad place to be.  Too much government and taxes could kill you but with retirement income only it wouldn't be too bad, and yeah would be okay.  Plus you could see the Bills play and get cheap seats.  Mind you I would probably get some friends and buy an indoor box, just because I don't like that much cold anymore.

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My dream is to save away a good chunk of change (a good one, not just a few hundred K), then sink it into muni bonds and other vehicles states can't tax, and THEN move back to Buffalo. Love the area, HATE paying any taxes to NYS.

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"Beighboodhood"?  :angry:  :doh:  :P  Holy elephant sh--, that's such a bad typo, it even has typos itself...

My dream is to save away a good chunk of change (a good one, not just a few hundred K), then sink it into muni bonds and other vehicles states can't tax, and THEN move back to Buffalo.  Love the area, HATE paying any taxes to NYS.

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It's one letter off dipshit.

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I don't think a lower than average cost of housing is indicitive of a pending economic boom. Real estate is relatively cheap in WNY because the economy is poor (relative to the rest of the nation), and the population continues to decline.

 

It could be a useful tool in a kit used to lure businesses into the area, but so far it hasn't been.

 

If they continue to welcome casino gambling into the area, it will only get worse.

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I've been house-hunting in northern virginia, and between bouts of crying I check out WNY prices. I think it's a good long-term investment, but for other reasons...

 

A big problem is this: a half million dollar property pays about $5,000 in taxes in Virginia. In WNY, it's more like $16,000. And everything I read suggests that the disparity will only get worse. So basically, you get a bigger house, but pay more in taxes. This hits retiree's hard, the government has to give them exemptions or support, pushing the burden on the tax-base even higher... It's a spiral that the region has to break out of.

 

I agree that casinos are a tragic mistake for encouraging high-end development.

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I've been house-hunting in northern virginia, and between bouts of crying I check out WNY prices. I think it's a good long-term investment, but for other reasons...

 

A big problem is this: a half million dollar property pays about $5,000 in taxes in Virginia. In WNY, it's more like $16,000. And everything I read suggests that the disparity will only get worse. So basically, you get a bigger house, but pay more in taxes. This hits retiree's hard, the government has to give them exemptions or support, pushing the burden on the tax-base even higher... It's a spiral that the region has to break out of.

 

I agree that casinos are a tragic mistake for encouraging high-end development.

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Are you serious about the $16,000 tax thing? I haven't made any calls, and the taxes were not listed on the website I checked out.

That is worse than Long Island, and I didn't think that was possible.

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Are you serious about the $16,000 tax thing? I haven't made any calls, and the taxes were not listed on the website I checked out.

That is worse than Long Island, and I didn't think that was possible.

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I only looked at a handfull, but it seemed true. For fun I looked at the most expensive places; one I distinctly remember was a standard XXL Mcmansion, 2002, 8 acres, $1.1 million. Taxes were $35k! In VA I'd have put it at $2 million (minus the land - simply can't get over 2 acres) and $15k.

 

Anyway, they seemed to average about 3x the tax rate of similarly priced houses in the best school districts in Virginia, but I didn't see enough to be sure. Can anybody confirm this?

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I only looked at a handfull, but it seemed true. For fun I looked at the most expensive places;  one I distinctly remember was a standard XXL Mcmansion, 2002, 8 acres, $1.1 million. Taxes were $35k!  In VA I'd have put it at $2 million (minus the land - simply can't get over 2 acres) and $15k.

 

Anyway, they seemed to average about 3x the tax rate of similarly priced houses in the best school districts in Virginia, but I didn't see enough to be sure. Can anybody confirm this?

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Depends on county and how they assess in NVA. Where I live a 500K home will probably be assessed by county at 300K (usually about 60% of real value). It is I think .92 per 100 on that so we would pay roughly 2700-2800 for a 500K home in property tax.

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Depends on county and how they assess in NVA.  Where I live a 500K home will probably be assessed by county at 300K (usually about 6% of real value).  It is I think .92 per 100 on that so we would pay roughly 2700-2800 for a 500K home in property tax.

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Not sure how the assessments work exactly, but your number jibes with the following:

 

Just for fun I did a sampling of the online listings in the 600k-800k range comparing the Buffalo region with Mclean VA. I chose Mclean because it has arguably the best public schools in the country and one would expect it to have high taxes.

 

Place - #Samples - Ave. list Price - Ave. Tax - %

 

Williamsville - 1 - 750k - $25,001 - 3.333

Lewiston - 1 - 795k - 21,852 - 2.749

Amherst - 4 - 686k - 16,453 - 2.397

West Seneca - 1 - 685k - 14,807 - 2.166

Orchard Park - 4 - 731k - 14,015 - 1.917

Buffalo - 4 - 704k - 13,415 - 1.904

Grand Island - 2 - 725k - 12,279 - 1.695

Clarence - 7 - 771k - 12,352 - 1.602

Elma - 1 - 659k - 8,000 - 1.214

Lockport - 1 - 700k - 7,749 - 1.107

Hamburg - 1 - 699k - 7,715 - 1.104

Ellicotville - 3 - 748k - 7,694 - 1.029

*Mclean, VA - 8 - 717k - 6,578 - .917

 

The only important number is the % since the others are not normalized; they're just there for flavor.

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