LOMBARDI: your current odds

[ALLinALLEN]

Just. Keep. Winning.

[MJS]

No team EVER has a 50% chance of winning the superbowl before playoffs games are played. The highest you ever get is, like, 20 to 25%.

[eball]

Sort of ridiculous to even consider a ranking of better than 50% for any team, for numerous reasons:

 

1 -- it makes absolutely no statistical sense

2 -- presumably once a team gets to the Super Bowl that is the first time they could realistically be considered to have a 50% chance or better of winning

 

Statements about Josh "peaking too early" are insane.  There are only 6 or 7 games left.  He's ramping up exactly as one would hope.

 

The health of the Bills' defense is really the only thing stopping us.  I'd put the Bills' current odds at roughly 20%.

 

[GASabresIUFan]

I think the 4 most dangerous teams in the playoffs will be the Bills, Chiefs, Ravens and Packers.  These are the 4 teams with the most dangerous QBs. 

Seriously, do we really trust Hurts, Goff, Wilson, Darnold, Stroud, or Herbert to take a team deep into the playoffs?  
 

I’ll put the odds of the Bills making the Super Bowl at 33% and winning 25%

 

[colin]

if we put the shoe on the other foot, what would KC think their chances are if the bills were 13-1, they were 11-3, the bills had some tough games coming up and had been winning with really tight kinda fluke type games, and allen had a high ankle sprain? 

 

I'd say they'd put their own odds at like 30%.

 

now, they are the better team based on back to back chips, and clearly have a better much much more consistent d and special teams, but are not so dynamic on O.

 

I'd say discounting the above scenario for that, it put's us at like 20%.

 

Now, if we win out, don't have crazy injuries, and actually get the 1 seed, I think it puts us at like 30-35%.  we'd have our biggest issues w baltimore (bad match up, we'd need playoff lamar to lay an egg again), and of course KC because you'd have to assume mahomes will be healthy by then.  

 

the 4 horsemen of the NFC are Detroit, Philly, Mini, and Greenbay.  I think tampa could play spoiler and have beaten some good teams before they got a lot of injuries early in the season, but I'm gonna assume they won't come up on top enough times to get there.

 

We beat detroit in a game that was not as close as the score told us, and they have had some more shocking injuries, so i'm confident (60%+) we beat them again.  Philly i woulda said is our worst match up because of their running, but it seems like the bills real weakness is accurate passing to athletic targets in a sophisticated O, philly has a high school simple passing O and hurts just does not read the d well, so i think we have an advantage there (at a good health level anyhow).

 

Greenbay is a real wild card, they are not consistent but could kinda get hot and beat people, or just fall apart.  I'd have to look deeper into the match up, but they can run and have a live qb, so i'd be a bit worried.

 

Minni I think is just too one dimensional, of all the above nfc teams they have by far the worst qb.

 

anyhow, the real gauntlet to the super bowl will be winning in the afc.  a bye gets us healthy and rested and at home, kc is a huge monkey on our backs, but if we are the one seed my quiet expectations will be that we get there and win.

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Italian Bills said:

Obviously when i said “injuries don’t count” i meant try to keep out this factor because otherwise it would be impossibile to make a forecast 

 

Let’s say every team at its best 

 

Fair enough.  

 

I only wish it was every team at its best the past two years.  

 

I think I read something somewhere that the Bills were NOT losing more player-games than the average NFL team the past couple of years.  Our issue is that we were without very key players on defense during the playoffs.  I would so love to enter the playoffs healthy this year - with only backups and maybe a jag or two starter hurt.  

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Less than 50%.

    This defense is atrocious. That was actually a decent showing from our D line….. you know….” The problem”.

    Josh is currently peaking and this isn’t the time to peak.

    If we get the #1 seed I’d feel better but it would still be three games, Josh had to be perfect and McClappy doesn’t screw it up.

    Add in Bass and 🤕

Less than 50% is crazy high still actually haha.  I sure as heck hope it’s that high.  A 1 seed with an 80/20 probability of winning every playoff game (which is a stupid high probability that’s like best team playing worst team in the regular season type stuff) has a 51.2% chance of winning the superbowl 

Edited Tuesday at 06:21 PM by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Buffalo ill]

Josh hasn't peaked yet.  The Bills haven't scored 50 points in a game this season.  He needs to do better.

[Buffalo Boy]

4 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Less than 50% is crazy high still actually haha.  I sure as heck hope it’s that high.  A 1 seed with an 80/20 probability of winning every playoff game (which is a stupid high probability that’s like best team playing worst team in the regular season type stuff) has a 51.2% chance of winning the superbowl 

   Just working what the OP offered. 
I’m somewhere in the single digit guts to teens as a guess. 
  Still way too much football left to be played.

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, May Day 10 said:

I wouldnt say anyone in the NFL is over 30% right now.

 

If the Bills can lock in the #2 seed, I feel pretty good, maybe 50% to make the Superbowl.  The Eagles and Lions scare me.  Id give the Bills maybe a 50/50 shot at winning against either of those (and I would say its a 75% chance it is either of those).

 

So let's call it 27%, which I consider really high.  They seem fairly healthy (knock on wood), and they should have a rest-week regardless of obtaining the 1 seed.  I would rather avoid Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the WC and Div round, but I'm not all that worried about the Chiefs, even on the road.

I’ve gotta look through old futures bets but I bet hardly anyone is ever over 30% Maybe the 07 pats?  I think people really underestimate how much dumb luck the nfl playoffs is being single elimination and they’ve gotta bake that variance into the odds 

 

looks like the lions and bills are both at 19 ish percent now.  That implies a pretty good deal of confidence we beat the chiefs on the road cuz that seems quite high for a likely 2 seed 

1 minute ago, Buffalo Boy said:

   Just working what the OP offered. 
I’m somewhere in the single digit guts to teens as a guess. 
  Still way too much football left to be played.

Yea I was gonna say that’s what you sounded like to me haha so I was surprised to read less than 50 

5 minutes ago, Buffalo ill said:

Josh hasn't peaked yet.  The Bills haven't scored 50 points in a game this season.  He needs to do better.

I still think he’s passing up big rush opportunities early in games to not risk injury 

Edited Tuesday at 06:28 PM by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Ballhawk]

Unfortunately I think it will come down to how healthy we stay. I would argue: "Injuries don't count, every team has their unequal problems there." 

If anything the last few weeks (as well as last year's playoffs) has shown us that our D needs to remain healthy for us to be serious contenders (2023 was a write off because of injuries to our D). Yes, all teams deal with injuries at this time of year, but not in equal measure. If we get guys back on Defense and they stay healthy, I would say, 33%.  

[Don Otreply]

Good odds,

 

😁👍🍸🚬

[LABILLBACKER]

4 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Less than 50%.

    This defense is atrocious. That was actually a decent showing from our D line….. you know….” The problem”.

    Josh is currently peaking and this isn’t the time to peak.

    If we get the #1 seed I’d feel better but it would still be three games, Josh had to be perfect and McClappy doesn’t screw it up.

    Add in Bass and 🤕

Yup, these are exactly my reasons.

1. Terrible defense 

2. Probably no bye week

3. Sean's game management mistakes 

4. Bass

...somewhere between 40-50% chance just to make it to a SB.

Edited Tuesday at 07:04 PM by LABILLBACKER

[Captain_Quint]

3 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:

Last thing to worry about is Josh peaking, he'll be just fine! 33%

That's not what the barmaid in Cheektowaga said.

[jethro_tull]

Better than ever......

[Sojourner]

3 minutes ago, colin said:

if we put the shoe on the other foot, what would KC think their chances are if the bills were 13-1, they were 11-3, the bills had some tough games coming up and had been winning with really tight kinda fluke type games, and allen had a high ankle sprain? 

 

I'd say they'd put their own odds at like 30%.

 

now, they are the better team based on back to back chips, and clearly have a better much much more consistent d and special teams, but are not so dynamic on O.

 

I'd say discounting the above scenario for that, it put's us at like 20%.

 

Now, if we win out, don't have crazy injuries, and actually get the 1 seed, I think it puts us at like 30-35%.  we'd have our biggest issues w baltimore (bad match up, we'd need playoff lamar to lay an egg again), and of course KC because you'd have to assume mahomes will be healthy by then.  

 

the 4 horsemen of the NFC are Detroit, Philly, Mini, and Greenbay.  I think tampa could play spoiler and have beaten some good teams before they got a lot of injuries early in the season, but I'm gonna assume they won't come up on top enough times to get there.

 

We beat detroit in a game that was not as close as the score told us, and they have had some more shocking injuries, so i'm confident (60%+) we beat them again.  Philly i woulda said is our worst match up because of their running, but it seems like the bills real weakness is accurate passing to athletic targets in a sophisticated O, philly has a high school simple passing O and hurts just does not read the d well, so i think we have an advantage there (at a good health level anyhow).

 

Greenbay is a real wild card, they are not consistent but could kinda get hot and beat people, or just fall apart.  I'd have to look deeper into the match up, but they can run and have a live qb, so i'd be a bit worried.

 

Minni I think is just too one dimensional, of all the above nfc teams they have by far the worst qb.

 

anyhow, the real gauntlet to the super bowl will be winning in the afc.  a bye gets us healthy and rested and at home, kc is a huge monkey on our backs, but if we are the one seed my quiet expectations will be that we get there and win.

 

 

Good points on the NFC teams. 
 

Detroit were a concern until they’ve lost Montgomery, McNeil and possible Carlton Davis for the rest of the year. 
 

Green Bay are in a similar position to Minnesota imo. They’ll go as far as their QB will take them. Love is definitely a star in this league but he seems to be very erratic. Solid defense for both teams that can force you into mistakes and short fields for their offenses. Darnold, and I love the comeback story, is being bailed out by Son&Son routinely. The catches one or both re making week in, week out is nothing short of spectacular. Can’t be reliant on that for potential 4 games that are win or go home. 
 

Philly is a concern, Hurts and the Eagles, to me, are a poor man’s Lamar and the Ravens. They’ve got an absolute unit @ RB in Saquon, who I feel is above Henry given the age and pass catching ability. More dynamic. Can run around or through you. When they’ve got the ground game rolling and can hit you with play action, you’re in trouble. At that moment Hurts is just as good as Lamar and sometimes even Mahomes or Josh. He just doesn’t have the consistently. The Eagles defense is the topper though. That unit is top notch. They can stop the run and pass very well. Best in the league @ pass defense, top 5 for run defense and joint first in ppg. They’re decent for sacks and turnovers but not great. Something that makes the defensive rankings for yards and points even better imo. 

[Goin Breakdown]

17% 

There's a lot that goes into it that I'm not smart enough to breakdown. So I'll just throw Josh's number at ya. 

[FireChans]

Bills, Chiefs or Eagles will win it all so I break it down to 45% for the Iggles because they just have to make it to the dance and the other 27.5% is split between the Chiefs and Bills.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

A lot of people seriously do not understand probabilities.  

[boyst]

5 hours ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Less than 50%.

    This defense is atrocious. That was actually a decent showing from our D line….. you know….” The problem”.

    Josh is currently peaking and this isn’t the time to peak.

    If we get the #1 seed I’d feel better but it would still be three games, Josh had to be perfect and McClappy doesn’t screw it up.

    Add in Bass and 🤕

yep

defense wins championships. great defenses can over come any "problem" but they are often related...

unless our DL can really just get a rocket up their butt and DB's heal with a helping hand from Hyde I don't see much changing.