LOMBARDI: your current odds

[Italian Bills]

Ok fellas, i'm just curious to see where are your expectation right now, after the Lions game. 

Based on how we are playing overall, on our D issues, our explosive O with Josh "The Alien" Allen and ultimately, based on our Coach and the duo Brady and Babich, what our chances are ? 

 

- 50%

- from 50 to 70%

- more the 70% 

 

Injuries don't count, every team has their problems there.  

[Starr Almighty]

19%

[Buffalo Boy]

Less than 50%.

    This defense is atrocious. That was actually a decent showing from our D line….. you know….” The problem”.

    Josh is currently peaking and this isn’t the time to peak.

    If we get the #1 seed I’d feel better but it would still be three games, Josh had to be perfect and McClappy doesn’t screw it up.

    Add in Bass and 🤕

[Italian Bills]

1 hour ago, Buffalo Boy said:

Less than 50%.

    This defense is atrocious. That was actually a decent showing from our D line….. you know….” The problem”.

    Josh is currently peaking and this isn’t the time to peak.

    If we get the #1 seed I’d feel better but it would still be three games, Josh had to be perfect and McClappy doesn’t screw it up.

    Add in Bass and 🤕

Your statement about Josh status is really worrying me... hope you are deeply wrong. 😅

[Sweats]

Sweats odds are like 50-50 (i'm no better than a weatherman) ........Vegas odds are closer to about 75% for the Bills winning the SB.

[NewEra]

I’d say about 20% chance to win the SB-  this can change weekly due to injuries to our team and league wide. 

[May Day 10]

I wouldnt say anyone in the NFL is over 30% right now.

 

If the Bills can lock in the #2 seed, I feel pretty good, maybe 50% to make the Superbowl.  The Eagles and Lions scare me.  Id give the Bills maybe a 50/50 shot at winning against either of those (and I would say its a 75% chance it is either of those).

 

So let's call it 27%, which I consider really high.  They seem fairly healthy (knock on wood), and they should have a rest-week regardless of obtaining the 1 seed.  I would rather avoid Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the WC and Div round, but I'm not all that worried about the Chiefs, even on the road.

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

Last thing to worry about is Josh peaking, he'll be just fine! 33%

[hondo in seattle]

2 hours ago, Italian Bills said:

Ok fellas, i'm just curious to see where are your expectation right now, after the Lions game. 

Based on how we are playing overall, on our D issues, our explosive O with Josh "The Alien" Allen and ultimately, based on our Coach and the duo Brady and Babich, what our chances are ? 

 

- 50%

- from 50 to 70%

- more the 70% 

 

Injuries don't count, every team has their problems there.  

 

14 teams get into the playoffs.  So I think the Bills odds are somewhat better than 7% since we're somewhat better than the average playoff team.  Our D worries me, particularly with the injuries (but even without them).   Let's call it 10% or so that we win it all.  20% we reach the SB.    

 

I'm not sure why injuries don't count.  Every team has injuries but not all teams have the same injuries.  There's a gigantic difference between a backup QB with a minor tear to his non-throwing shoulder and a starting QB with a broken hip.  

 

Edited Tuesday at 04:12 PM by hondo in seattle

[mannc]

2 hours ago, Starr Almighty said:

19%

Actually about 23%, according to DraftKings…those are the shortest odds of any team.

55 minutes ago, Sweats said:

Sweats odds are like 50-50 (i'm no better than a weatherman) ........Vegas odds are closer to about 75% for the Bills winning the SB.

Wrong

[Kelly to Allen]

Nobody is beating Allen as long as he stays healthy and McDermott doesn't have a rams type game. 

[wjag]

99.99%..  I'll leave 0.01% chance for others

[strive_for_five_guy]

46 minutes ago, May Day 10 said:

I wouldnt say anyone in the NFL is over 30% right now.

 

If the Bills can lock in the #2 seed, I feel pretty good, maybe 50% to make the Superbowl.  The Eagles and Lions scare me.  Id give the Bills maybe a 50/50 shot at winning against either of those (and I would say its a 75% chance it is either of those).

 

So let's call it 27%, which I consider really high.  They seem fairly healthy (knock on wood), and they should have a rest-week regardless of obtaining the 1 seed.  I would rather avoid Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the WC and Div round, but I'm not all that worried about the Chiefs, even on the road.

Right, if we were already playing in the SB and playing someone like the Eagles, our odds might be 45-55%.  But we likely will have 3 playoff games too, which our odds of winning each might be 75%, 65%, 55% (for example).  That would give us roughly a 12-15% chance of winning it all.

3 minutes ago, mannc said:

Actually about 23%, according to DraftKings…those are the shortest odds of any team.

Wrong

Well, and keep in mind, the house has juice in all of those odds.  So DraftKings actually figuring lower odds, but then adding in their juice.

[Italian Bills]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

14 teams get into the playoffs.  So I think the Bills odds are somewhat better than 7% since we're somewhat better than the average playoff team.  Our D worries me, particularly with the injuries (but even without them).   Let's call it 10% or so that we win it all.  20% we reach the SB.    

 

I'm not sure why injuries don't count.  Every team has injuries but not all teams have the same injuries.  There's a gigantic difference between a backup QB with a minor tear to his non-throwing shoulder and a starting QB with a broken hip.  

 

Obviously when i said “injuries don’t count” i meant try to keep out this factor because otherwise it would be impossibile to make a forecast 

 

Let’s say every team at its best 

[Gregg]

I will say in the AFC I think it will either be the Bills or Ravens. KC is the defending champs but because of the offensive struggles it doesn't seem like it will be their year. In the NFC the Eagles are the favorites. Maybe the Packers and Vikings have a shot, but Philly is the favorite. I think all the injuries will prevent the Lions from getting there. As far as odds. Who knows. I would feel better if the Bills defense was better, but they still have as good a shot to get there as anyone in the AFC.

[Kelly to Allen]

2 minutes ago, Gregg said:

I will say in the AFC I think it will either be the Bills or Ravens. KC is the defending champs but because of the offensive struggles it doesn't seem like it will be their year. In the NFC the Eagles are the favorites. Maybe the Packers and Vikings have a shot, but Philly is the favorite. I think all the injuries will prevent the Lions from getting there. As far as odds. Who knows. I would feel better if the Bills defense was better, but they still have as good a shot to get there as anyone in the AFC.

I'm leaning this way. I don't trust Lamar in the playoffs but KC just looks to be running on empty

 

I might pick Baltimore to beat KC. 

 

 

 

 

[US Egg]

Let’s hear from the money where their mouth is crowd.

 

I’ll shut up now.

[Sweats]

15 minutes ago, mannc said:

Actually about 23%, according to DraftKings…those are the shortest odds of any team.

Wrong

 

 

 

 

Alright, calm down, kid.........ole Sweats was just making a guess here

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 hour ago, May Day 10 said:

The Eagles and Lions scare me. 

Also:

Tigers.

Bears. (Just not Chicago type.)

Green witches.

[HOUSE]

Right now Tyler Bass is reminding me of Scott Norwood.

Need I say more ??