Ok on to Detroit....

[Straight Hucklebuck]

5 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

You forgot the Jets 

I wonder if McDermott has thought about using Taron Johnson as a regular boundary CB on run downs. He can easily play it and be fine. This would allow more reps for Dorian Williams 

Jets - Yeah you might be right about that - Jets missed multiple field goals and that was another McDermott gaffe that gets forgotten about - his extreme prevent strategy against the Hail Mary.

 

Rushing 2 and allow Rodgers a free heave to the end zone. 
 

Breece Hall had that long run down the sideline. 
 

I remember feeling like the Bills were lucky to win that game. Maybe some of that defensive narrative got quieted because Cooper trade was the next day. 

[Kelly to Allen]

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Jets - Yeah you might be right about that - Jets missed multiple field goals and that was another McDermott gaffe that gets forgotten about - his extreme prevent strategy against the Hail Mary.

 

Rushing 2 and allow Rodgers a free heave to the end zone. 
 

Breece Hall had that long run down the sideline. 
 

I remember feeling like the Bills were lucky to win that game. Maybe some of that defensive narrative got quieted because Cooper trade was the next day. 

 

I'll say it again 

 

 

That defensive formation to stop the hail Mary made my eyes bleed. I thought I was on acid.

 

Somebody has to have the overhead view. I can't find it....It's insane 

Edited December 14 by Kelly to Allen

[strive_for_five_guy]

19 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

I wonder if McDermott has thought about using Taron Johnson as a regular boundary CB on run downs. He can easily play it and be fine. This would allow more reps for Dorian Williams 

Who knows, although I suspect McD will first want to see the Lions beat his base defense, which Detroit will probably run all over it until we make any adjustments later in the 1st half.  Then McD & Babich will make whatever adjustments they have in mind.  A reactionary approach like we typically see, rather than something proactive.

 

I wonder if they could have Taron shadow St. Brown, Benford follow Williams, and if no other WRs on the field, mix out Elam/Ingram in favor of a 3rd LB in Dorian.  This way we’ve got more run support while keeping our best CBs on the field.  For those that understand the X’s and O’s better than I, would something like this be feasible?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

24 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

I'll say it again 

 

 

That defensive formation to stop the hail Mary made my eyes bleed. I thought I was on acid.

 

Somebody has to have the overhead view. I can't find it....It's insane 

From a 30,000-foot view what comes to mind with McDermott’s defenses since 2020 Allen:

 

- first thing I think is - McDermott’s”system” and how it never changes. 

 

- I think Cover 2 zone and keeping plays “in front of them” 

 

- It’s 4 down lineman, two linebackers, 3 corners and 2 safeties. Always Nickel. 
 

- They did have Edmunds for 5-years, and he had size, and he was consistent, never hurt, but hardly ever made a play, had that 1-INT against the Jets. 
 

- I think defensive line rotation. Usually starts with a veteran 1T like Star L and now DaQuan Jones, Oliver has been the other DT for years now. And then it has been a rotation of free agent guys on short term deals. They’ve never prioritized DT in the draft outside of Oliver. 
 

- I’ve never really thought of the Bills having a dominant DE. In these Playoff games they don’t get pressure - that started right away with Colts 2020.
 

- AJ is small, Bills asked him to lose  weight immediately so he could be athletic enough to play. 
 

- A weak #2 corner has been characteristic. 
 

- Taron Johnson never coming off the field. 
 

- Hyde and Poyer they were here so long you saw their rise and then fall as they aged out.

 

- Leslie Frazier and a passive defense. Dick Jauron like approach where they depend on you making a mistake. 
 

- I don’t really think of athletes. Feels like they prioritize intelligence and professionalism. Not that you can’t have both.

 

- I think of a grid pattern that stays in front of the play. 
 

- Best big game was 2020 Ravens 17-7 in the Playoffs. 
 

- Beane’s general team building philosophy has been to extend and keep as much of that 2020 team together as possible. 
 

Edited December 14 by Straight Hucklebuck

[BearNorth]

15 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

 

I wonder if they could have Taron shadow St. Brown, Benford follow Williams, and if no other WRs on the field, mix out Elam/Ingram in favor of a 3rd LB in Dorian.  This way we’ve got more run support while keeping our best CBs on the field.  For those that understand the X’s and O’s better than I, would something like this be feasible?

I don't see any mention of LaPorta, who is a coverage mismatch, esp with Rapp on the sidelines.

[sven233]

Lots of talk about McDermott and his scheme going on here.  Here's the thing.  What we see week in and week out is his system.  He may not be calling the plays, but it is his system and it is the same system that he has used since he got here.  He truly believes that the best way to win games is to play 2 deep S and have TJ on the field and play nickel defense instead of 3 LBs.  And quite honestly, I agree with him at a fundamental level that this is the right way to play against many teams.

 

HOWEVER, the problem I have with McDermott is he NEVER changes it up.  Even if you want to run what we run as your base defense, any great defensive coordinator is going to show different looks, different personele, and different strategies at some point during a game.  He never does this.  It is his philosophy to play that defense every snap of every game no matter what is happening is that game and it gets him in trouble against teams that pound the ball.  The problem with giving teams light boxes to run against us is that not only are the numbers less up front, but our defensive lineman and LBs are just light in the pants as it is.  They can be knocked off the ball real easy by good running teams because they just can't hold up physically.  Sometimes games call for putting a 3rd LB out there instead of worrying so much about the pass with Johnson, but he just never makes that adjustment no matter what the situation is or whether they have given up 200 yards on the ground already.  He never adapts to what the other team is doing.  That's why you see very little man to man, why we are one of the lowest blitzing teams in the league, and why when we do lose, we tend to get destroyed in the process.  

 

Honestly, it is a little strange.  I mean, the goal on offense, is to throw as many unique and different looks at the defense as possible.  Different formations, personele groups, eye candy, etc.  You would think that doing the same thing on defense, at least once in a while, would be a good thing.  Start making the offense think about what you're doing on defense rather than just what they are trying to get done offensively.  I am not saying you have to be as exotic on defense as you are on offense, but there is no reason you can't play your base defense 70% of the game and then use something different for the other 30%.  But McDermott has proven that he will only run his base defense 100% of the time.  Just what he believes you need to do to win.  And, I suppose if you had a dominant defensive line, that would be a pretty smart way of doing it.  The problem is that our line is not dominant.  We have good talent, but we don't have game wrecking talent anywhere up front and that is what you need to run our base defense all the time.

 

Like I said, fundamentally, I agree with his philosophy.  I do think our best personele package and system is what we run and for the most part, we run it very well.  But any good defense shows something new on occasion and we just never do.  We are very easy to gameplan for in a lot of ways.  I mean, our opponents almost every week say it leading up to the game.  They say they know what we do because it is the same system week in and week out, but our talent does run the system extremely well and because we are fundamentally sound most of the time, we are tough to play against for teams that throw the ball regularly.  Heck, even last week against the Rams, so many of those throws and catches were just absolutely perfect and there was just nothing you could do.  Because Stafford had all day on virtually every play, they could make every throw and catch precise and on target even though many times our coverage was right there and just beaten by perfection.  If our defensive line would have gotten any pressure at all, that game might look a lot different, but they were a no-show.  But teams that don't live and die by the pass don't have those same concerns against our defense.  I think just throwing 3 LBs on the field on early downs sometimes wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.  And with our athletic LBs, we can still play coverage if necessary in those situations.  Just change it up once in a while.

Edited December 14 by sven233

[Kelly to Allen]

3 minutes ago, FLFan said:

I am not quite sure what your point is here.  My point was that every aspect of your post is silly, bordering on laughable.  I am quite sure the coaches consider every possible combination in deploying their resources and they do not need some random message board poster’s suggestions.  Taron Johnson has been in the league with the Bills for 7 years and to my knowledge he has never played boundary corner, yet you are sure he can play that role no problem. OK.  So what if we get Williams in the field more?  You do realize don’t you that as soon as an opposing coach sees that alignment he is going to throw the ball, since you have created two weak spots on pass defense?  

 

I was joking with you 😂. 

Edited December 14 by Kelly to Allen

[FLFan]

2 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

I was joking with you 😂. 

My bad.  Peace. 

[Beck Water]

18 minutes ago, sven233 said:

Lots of talk about McDermott and his scheme going on here.  Here's the thing.  What we see week in and week out is his system.  He may not be calling the plays, but it is his system and it is the same system that he has used since he got here.  He truly believes that the best way to win games is to play 2 deep S and have TJ on the field and play nickel defense instead of 3 LBs.  And quite honestly, I agree with him at a fundamental level that this is the right way to play against many teams.

 

HOWEVER, the problem I have with McDermott is he NEVER changes it up. Even if you want to run what we run as your base defense, any great defensive coordinator is going to show different looks, different personele, and different strategies at some point during a game.  He never does this.  It is his philosophy to play that defense every snap of every game no matter what is happening is that game and it gets him in trouble against teams that pound the ball.  

 

Quote

I mean, the goal on offense, is to throw as many unique and different looks at the defense as possible.  Different formations, personele groups, eye candy, etc.  You would think that doing the same thing on defense, at least once in a while, would be a good thing.  

This is actually not true.

 

I will say this, though.  He doesn't tend to change it up until it's proven not to work against a team.  So if a team runs over us the next time we meet them he'll have something different.  Example: 2021.  First meeting with the Patriots, 222 rush yards.  2nd meeting, 149.  3rd meeting in playoffs, 89.   The first meeting, they actually ran a good bit of 4-3  base with Tyrell Dodson substituting for Taron Johnson.  Didn't work out very well.  Second meeting, they ran a kind of "heavy nickel" with Siran Neal substituting for one of the DBs and if I recall correctly, some base and sometimes a 5th DL.

 

Here's the thing.  Practice time is limited during the season, and as fans, I don't think a lot of us realize how complex a modern NFL defense really is.  Assignments can change pre-snap, post-snap, then based on the routes the receivers actually run - even "man" doesn't mean "that's your guy no matter what", especially if the defense is set up to create rub routes or they can play half field man, half field zone.  So communication and being assignment-sound has to be considered when changing things up during the game.

And the defense does try to confuse the offense, by disguising coverage, disguising who the pass rushers may be, and so forth.  Just as an offense doesn't necessarily disguise what they're doing by changing personnel but by using the same personnel in different ways.  An offense will tend to keep its best players on the field most plays, because they're the best players and because if they sub them out for a player who excels with specific plays, it's a "tell" to the defense.  Same thing with substitutions on defense.

 

Edited December 14 by Beck Water

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

There's no way anyone would predict the Chiefs to be 12-1 looking at their quarterly point performance and with as many close finishes as they’ve had it’s hard to imagine they’re only +16 in the fourth quarter. Mind boggling. 

 

The Chiefs break all the rules.

 

 

[DaVinci]

Simple math word problem. Why has the slope of Bills succes the last 5 years been 0 and the Lions come in with a slope of 10?

[sven233]

20 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is actually not true.

 

I will say this, though.  He doesn't tend to change it up until it's proven not to work against a team.  So if a team runs over us the next time we meet them he'll have something different.  Example: 2021.  First meeting with the Patriots, 222 rush yards.  2nd meeting, 149.  3rd meeting in playoffs, 89.   The first meeting, they actually ran a good bit of 4-3  base with Tyrell Dodson substituting for Taron Johnson.  Didn't work out very well.  Second meeting, they ran a kind of "heavy nickel" with Siran Neal substituting for one of the DBs and if I recall correctly, some base and sometimes a 5th DL.

 

Here's the thing.  Practice time is limited during the season, and as fans, I don't think a lot of us realize how complex a modern NFL defense really is.  Assignments can change pre-snap, post-snap, then based on the routes the receivers actually run - even "man" doesn't mean "that's your guy no matter what", especially if the defense is set up to create rub routes or they can play half field man, half field zone.  So communication and being assignment-sound has to be considered when changing things up during the game.

 

 

The thing is, every week we see defenses throw multiple looks at teams.  Just look at what the Chiefs have done the last several years with Spags.  He changes things up on almost on almost every series and in every situation.  Even this year with them not having the same talent they have had over the past several years, for the most part, they are great.  Up until the Bengals lost all of their talent on defense this year, they did the same things.  The 49ers, before all of their devastating injuries, did a lot of exotic scheming at times. Most of the top defenses change things during games.  And I'm not saying McDermott never changes anything ever.  I am saying he very rarely changes anything DURING games.  There have been multiple games this year where RBs aren't even being touched until they are 7 yards past the LOS yet he never adjusts during the game.  You cherry picking a couple games here and there from years ago doesn't show that he adapts to in game situations.  The fact is, when TJ is healthy, he is always on the field.  And in the Playoffs, it's 1 and done.  There are no redos later in the season to correct what went wrong in the last matchup.  You have to get it right the first time and adapt in game to stop the other team from mauling you in the run game if that is what is happening.  Again, I am not saying to not do what you do best.  We absolutely should.  But once in a while, you have to show something different, especially when what you are doing is getting wrecked during a game.

Edited December 14 by sven233

[strive_for_five_guy]

41 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

I don't see any mention of LaPorta, who is a coverage mismatch, esp with Rapp on the sidelines.

Agree, LaPorta another weapon to defend.  Was trying to focus on our CB matchups and potential for a 3rd LB.  Won’t Milano or Bernard primarily be covering LaPorta?  Or maybe this is where Lewis Cine as a big nickel is forced into more action?

[Kelly to Allen]

19 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Chiefs break all the rules.

 

 

 

 

 

This is insane 

[3rdand12]

40 minutes ago, sven233 said:

Lots of talk about McDermott and his scheme going on here.  Here's the thing.  What we see week in and week out is his system.  He may not be calling the plays, but it is his system and it is the same system that he has used since he got here.  He truly believes that the best way to win games is to play 2 deep S and have TJ on the field and play nickel defense instead of 3 LBs.  And quite honestly, I agree with him at a fundamental level that this is the right way to play against many teams.

 

HOWEVER, the problem I have with McDermott is he NEVER changes it up.  Even if you want to run what we run as your base defense, any great defensive coordinator is going to show different looks, different personele, and different strategies at some point during a game.  He never does this.  It is his philosophy to play that defense every snap of every game no matter what is happening is that game and it gets him in trouble against teams that pound the ball.  The problem with giving teams light boxes to run against us is that not only are the numbers less up front, but our defensive lineman and LBs are just light in the pants as it is.  They can be knocked off the ball real easy by good running teams because they just can't hold up physically.  Sometimes games call for putting a 3rd LB out there instead of worrying so much about the pass with Johnson, but he just never makes that adjustment no matter what the situation is or whether they have given up 200 yards on the ground already.  He never adapts to what the other team is doing.  That's why you see very little man to man, why we are one of the lowest blitzing teams in the league, and why when we do lose, we tend to get destroyed in the process.  

 

Honestly, it is a little strange.  I mean, the goal on offense, is to throw as many unique and different looks at the defense as possible.  Different formations, personele groups, eye candy, etc.  You would think that doing the same thing on defense, at least once in a while, would be a good thing.  Start making the offense think about what you're doing on defense rather than just what they are trying to get done offensively.  I am not saying you have to be as exotic on defense as you are on offense, but there is no reason you can't play your base defense 70% of the game and then use something different for the other 30%.  But McDermott has proven that he will only run his base defense 100% of the time.  Just what he believes you need to do to win.  And, I suppose if you had a dominant defensive line, that would be a pretty smart way of doing it.  The problem is that our line is not dominant.  We have good talent, but we don't have game wrecking talent anywhere up front and that is what you need to run our base defense all the time.

 

Like I said, fundamentally, I agree with his philosophy.  I do think our best personele package and system is what we run and for the most part, we run it very well.  But any good defense shows something new on occasion and we just never do.  We are very easy to gameplan for in a lot of ways.  I mean, our opponents almost every week say it leading up to the game.  They say they know what we do because it is the same system week in and week out, but our talent does run the system extremely well and because we are fundamentally sound most of the time, we are tough to play against for teams that throw the ball regularly.  Heck, even last week against the Rams, so many of those throws and catches were just absolutely perfect and there was just nothing you could do.  Because Stafford had all day on virtually every play, they could make every throw and catch precise and on target even though many times our coverage was right there and just beaten by perfection.  If our defensive line would have gotten any pressure at all, that game might look a lot different, but they were a no-show.  But teams that don't live and die by the pass don't have those same concerns against our defense.  I think just throwing 3 LBs on the field on early downs sometimes wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.  And with our athletic LBs, we can still play coverage if necessary in those situations.  Just change it up once in a while.

This has been my concern for years. Thought it was just a Frazier thing.

 Appreciate you fleshing out some of the real details in your perspective. My thinking is same if not similar. So thanks for what I wish i could express as well.

 Too late in the season to do anything dramatic they haven't practiced. Shame on that.

Next year the defensive paradigm needs to shift

 Go Bills

[Straight Hucklebuck]

14 minutes ago, sven233 said:

 

The thing is, every week we see defenses throw multiple looks at teams.  Just look at what the Chiefs have done the last several years with Spags.  He changes things up on almost on almost every series and in every situation.  Even this year with them not having the same talent they have had over the past several years, for the most part, they are great.  Up until the Bengals lost all of their talent on defense this year, they did the same things.  The 49ers, before all of their devastating injuries, did a lot of exotic scheming at times. Most of the top defenses change things during games.  And I'm not saying McDermott never changes anything ever.  I am saying he very rarely changes anything DURING games.  There have been multiple games this year where RBs aren't even being touched until they are 7 yards past the LOS yet he never adjusts during the game.  You cherry picking a couple games here and there from years ago doesn't show that he adapts to in game situations.  The fact is, when TJ is healthy, he is always on the field.  And in the Playoffs, it's 1 and done.  There are no redos later in the season to correct what went wrong in the last matchup.  You have to get it right the first time and adapt in game to stop the other team from mauling you in the run game if that is what is happening.  Again, I am not saying to not do what you do best.  We absolutely should.  But once in a while, you have to show something different, especially when what you are doing is getting wrecked during a game.

I would agree more with this than the post about it not being true.

 

Do the Bills use 5-defensive lineman much? 
 

Do the Bills rush 3, play press man and have cloud over the top? 

 

Last week their adjustments were - bring Rapp down, tighten up the cushion which naturally put them in man more often.

 

But it’s the same people in the same spots every week.

 

Milano came back and Dorian came off and he’s 100% off the defense now. 
 

Damar Hamlin never comes off the field.

 

Where are these changes that McDermott implements? 
 

When do we start the game in anything but Nickel? 

[Scott7975]

15 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

The reality is, the next 4 games don’t matter that much. That doesn’t mean I don’t want to win every one of them. It means we already have the division and a home game, we aren’t getting the #1 seed, and I don’t think 2-4 makes any difference. I’d certainly like to go into the playoffs on a 2 game win streak.

 

We’ve got 4 games to experiment with players/scheme to get an idea of what may work best in the playoffs. I want Milano in there every snap to knock the rust off and see if he has anything left. I want Coleman in there to get as many reps as he can because I think he could be a big weapon. I want Elam to get a real shot and see if he can play (I’m going to sht myself if Ingram gets the nod). I’d like Eli Anku to get activated because he’s the only DT with a pulse who stops the run. Put Bishop in there and see if he’s learned anything since getting smoked against Houston. Bench Ed Oliver and tell him he sucks and maybe that will light a fire under his over paid ass when he gets back in for the playoffs. I’d only put Kincaid in there if he’s 100%. He’s in a sophomore slump and Knox is a better blocker. We are going to need our run game because Josh can’t go God Mode for 4 straight games. 

 

My biggest concern is the D-line. They just don’t have it and unless we see a significant improvement in play, we aren’t going past the division round again. I don’t think it’s the scheme as much as the talent. With all the money and resources we’ve put on that line it’s an indictment of Beane that they are consistently the reason we get bounced in the playoffs. 

 

I hope this year is different but I’m skeptical.

 

Oh btw, McD should have definitely declined the penalty against the Rams because it allowed them to run 40 more seconds off the clock. That alone should have made the choice to decline an easy one. I was losing my sht mainly because of that reason. I don’t care if they went for it and made it, it was the time we needed to conserve and that’s where McD consistently screws up. Don’t get me started on the time out.

 

 

 

2 seed means we are home for the divisional game too. It also means if we advance and KC doesnt that the AFCCG is also home. Of course it makes a difference.

[paulmm3]

Over/under betting line has got to be the highest on this game of any NFL game this year. Two best offenses in the league in terms of points per game, us with a nonexistent defense and them with a banged up defense.

[No_Matter_What]

3 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Where is @MasterStrategist with all the inside injury information? 

I don't think we need hum right now, everything important seems already known to me.

 

Kincaid and Coleman are playing, Rapp is not. Bishop gets the start.

 

Which is fine with me. I don't want to hear all the time how badly he got burned in Texans game. Get the man on the field, we need him to be starting safety for the next 3-10 years.

 

Rapp should be on the field when he's ready, but get Bishop some live reps.

[Simon]

5 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Which is fine with me. I don't want to hear all the time how badly he got burned in Texans game. Get the man on the field, we need him to be starting safety for the next 3-10 years.

 

Rapp should be on the field when he's ready, but get Bishop some live reps.

 

I think the ideal scenario would be for Bishop to look like he has picked up the defense well enough that when Rapp comes back, Bishop then stays on the field for Hamlin.