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Posted (edited)
16 hours ago, Sierra Foothills said:

 

 

Josh Allen has a red zone interception % of 2.3 which is 17th best all time. Not throwing due to fear of being intercepted is a fearful and losing approach IMO. Josh is one of the best run/pass option QBs in history. You put the ball in his hands and expect that he'll make the right play... which is a pretty good bet. The sneak in this situation is a bad call for the exact reason we witnessed.

 

 

Yes. The Bills were short on an earlier tush push in the 1st Quarter.

 

In Joe Buscaglia's The Athletic analysis of the failed sneak, he pointed out that the Bills used a different approach than the one that has been so successful previously:

 

"On most of the Bills’ sneak attempts this season, they’ve put some receivers on the field with a running back lined up in the backfield. Having that personnel on the field keeps the threat of throwing the ball, even if it’s a slight chance given how often the Bills like to run the quarterback sneak with Allen, which keeps smaller defenders on the field. But the group the Bills put on the field for that first-and-goal attempt from the one-yard line had no deception whatsoever. The Bills went extra heavy, using sixth offensive lineman Alec Anderson, tight end Dawson Knox, tight end Zach Davidson and fullback Reggie Gilliam on the field at once. The other skill player was James Cook, who they split out wide and had a safety up against him. The Bills’ personnel is important because it allowed the Rams to match personnel, and they went even heavier than the Bills did.

The Rams used a group of four heavier defensive linemen in the middle of the formation and four edge rushers who normally battle at the line of scrimmage. It was those eight all lined up in a row, with their usual two inside linebackers roaming on the second level to see where Allen would try his rush.

Instead of going with what has worked time and time again, the Bills had no one lined up in the backfield, and instead called Davidson in motion to the backfield and then snapped the ball. Davidson extended his arms to try and get to Allen to get a push for him, but by that point, the Rams had already infiltrated between the left tackle and guard to stop Allen’s momentum. And with that many large players all piled into one area, it would take even longer than normal to get everyone up, to the line and to run another play."

 

 

 

This is a very well-written and well-researched article. I've not read the writer's material before but he's dead on.

 

"Tom Brady, the best situational player in the history of the game, laid out the Bills path to victory: throw for a touchdown, complete the PAT, kick off, stop the Rams for a three-and-out with a timeout after each play and then bring the ball into field-goal range for a win. 

Brady warned: Whatever the Bills do, they cannot run the ball on the goal line.

But that's exactly what they did.

At the 1-yard line with one minute and six seconds left, Allen ran the ball on a QB sneak. The Rams stuffed Allen, and the Bills had to call a timeout. Their chances of winning plummeted.

"Now you’ve gotta onside kick. We’ve got a 3% chance on an onsides kick. … That changes the entire complexity of the last minute and two seconds of the game," Brady said. "Even if they score, what’s the big deal? You’re gonna have to go for an onsides kick. I did not like that one bit. That could've just cost them the game right there."

 

It did."

 

It's sad that Tom Brady could read the situation clearly and Joe Brady/McDermott couldn't.

 

Said Joe Brady:

 

"You look at us on the 1-yard line this year, and we haven’t been stopped on a QB sneak outside of this game. The only one that didn’t work going into this game was an illegal formation. … At that point — percentages-wise — the highest percentage play was the QB sneak. But at the same time, the cost at not getting it essentially did cost us the game," Brady said. "So I have to do a better job in that situation. And it’s something we’re continuing to evaluate. … We’ve got to be better. I’ve got to be better."

It’s nice of Brady to take the blame there. But this is what head coaches are for. McDermott, who is not a playcaller, has to step in to override his coordinators when they can’t see the bigger picture. McDermott let the mistake happen."

 

Said the writer:

 

"Instead of plugging the leaks, the Bills need to figure out why the leaks are happening.

It's not enough to look at their in-game failures and say: We won't do that again. Every game is different. Every decision is different. McDermott might need a better infrastructure in place so he can quality control his coordinators... It’s worth noting that Marc Lubick has the title of game management coach for the Bills. He’s been with the team as long as McDermott but only stepped into the game management role in 2020. It’s unclear, however, exactly how involved Lubick gets in these situations and decisions.

"Those are not easy situations overall. There’s a lot of communication that has to unfold. … [We’ll] adjust our process a little and hone that in a little bit closer," McDermott said.

That process is everything for the Bills. This is a Super Bowl-caliber team. Its coach needs to be ready to make Super Bowl-caliber decisions. And he doesn't have a consistent track record of doing that."

 

The now famous Bills adage "we'll learn from our mistakes and fix them" should actually be "let's find coaches that don't make them in the first place".

 

As a side tidbit, Josh Allen is having his greatest season. This overblown narrative that he's an interception machine is moronic and lazy. He has 5 ints this year, 3 of which were the fault of his receiver.

Edited by LABILLBACKER
  • Thank you (+1) 3
Posted
52 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Yep, exactly how I look at it.  QB RPO.🙂

The real problem being our coaches being stuck on analytics instead of paying attention to the reality on the field.

If they looked at the analytics it would say to pass it there.  The reality on the field is we have maybe the 2nd best QB in the league with the tush push.  Nobody here would've complained about the call if he got in which he usually does.  However, it was obviously still the wrong call as Brady admitted.

Posted
3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

If they looked at the analytics it would say to pass it there.  The reality on the field is we have maybe the 2nd best QB in the league with the tush push.  Nobody here would've complained about the call if he got in which he usually does.  However, it was obviously still the wrong call as Brady admitted.

Well, I guess to me they looked at their highest percent success play and ignored the rest.

Posted
3 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

If they looked at the analytics it would say to pass it there.  The reality on the field is we have maybe the 2nd best QB in the league with the tush push.  Nobody here would've complained about the call if he got in which he usually does.  However, it was obviously still the wrong call as Brady admitted.

I don't like the call to sneak, but it was the timeout that was the killer.


Cause even if you don't get the sneak, then you should be ready at the line ready to do it again. Not call a timeout.

 

Would prefer passing it of course, but the biggest blunder IMO was the timeout and not necessarily the sneak call. (Although still shouldn't have sneaked it)

Posted
On 12/8/2024 at 10:02 PM, PoundingDog said:

He said "give me the best play at 1 yard line," and they believed Allen sneaking is the best play. They need to develop a best passing play at 1 yard line. 

 

The issue I had was that MsD had no contingency plan if they didn't make it on first down, but to call time out? Total lack of preparedness. Brutal!!!

  • Agree 1
Posted
1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

I don't like the call to sneak, but it was the timeout that was the killer.


Cause even if you don't get the sneak, then you should be ready at the line ready to do it again. Not call a timeout.

 

Would prefer passing it of course, but the biggest blunder IMO was the timeout and not necessarily the sneak call. (Although still shouldn't have sneaked it)


if running the sneak, a wild second play would be to have a wr drift towards the sideline during the scrum and see if he goes unnoticed by the db when you basically have everyone stand up and quick snap 

Posted
6 minutes ago, NoSaint said:


if running the sneak, a wild second play would be to have a wr drift towards the sideline during the scrum and see if he goes unnoticed by the db when you basically have everyone stand up and quick snap 

For sure, It would have chewed up another 15 seconds or so.

 

But it's the lesser evil compared to a timeout 

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