McDermott Post Game Presser

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, BobbyC81 said:

Overall, this defense is undersized and lacks team speed.   We saw what Baltimore did to this defense.  Tough aggressive teams like Philly and Pittsburgh could dominate them.

I’d venture if the Bills and Ravens met again the game would be much closer. The Bills had significant defensive injuries and Allen did t play well. The Bills have beaten the Ravens in previous meetings. They’ve also beaten the Steelers the past couple times. The Bills were also a Gabe Davis mental error from beating the Eagles in Philly last season, and only lost on an unlikely long FG in the rain. 

The Bills offense and Allen could also dominate any of those teams. A lot of consternation and hand wringing over a bad defensive night. Could the Bills lose in the playoffs ? Of course. They also have Josh Allen, one of the best 2 QBs in the NFL. A playoff loss is far from a forgone conclusion. 

[BobbyC81]

On 12/8/2024 at 7:51 PM, Bills Bud said:

You throw the ball, any good coach would know that.

And if they threw it, and the ball was tipped and intercepted, the naysayers would say “why didn’t they just sneak it”

[ddaryl]

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/could-sean-mcdermotts-game-management-cost-bills-shot-title

others are noticing McD's short commings with game clock management

[LABILLBACKER]

51 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/could-sean-mcdermotts-game-management-cost-bills-shot-title

others are noticing McD's short commings with game clock management

No matter how magical Josh looks, McDermott will somehow screw it up. I've said this from the day we blew a 16-0 lead in the 2019 Houston playoff game. And since that day he's done nothing but validate that feeling. 

[Sierra Foothills]

On 12/8/2024 at 7:20 PM, Boatdrinks said:

I remember a certain passing play for Seattle in the Super Bowl a number of years back. Maybe not quite at the 1, but we know how it turned out. Allen is pretty much money on these sneak type plays. Just didn’t get in that time. I didn’t hate the strategy. 

Crazy to think that a 42 point day on the road by any Bills team would be called a let down. 

 

On 12/9/2024 at 9:50 PM, BobbyC81 said:

And if they threw it, and the ball was tipped and intercepted, the naysayers would say “why didn’t they just sneak it”

 

Josh Allen has a red zone interception % of 2.3 which is 17th best all time. Not throwing due to fear of being intercepted is a fearful and losing approach IMO. Josh is one of the best run/pass option QBs in history. You put the ball in his hands and expect that he'll make the right play... which is a pretty good bet. The sneak in this situation is a bad call for the exact reason we witnessed.

 

On 12/9/2024 at 12:05 AM, Doc Brown said:

It definitely should've been four pass play calls at maximum to the end zone.  The only way you can justify it is Allen is usually money with those QB sneaks so Brady/Allen/McDermott thought there was no way in hell they weren't sneaking it in for a TD there.  Rams defense made a great play.  It would've been much better if it was first and goal from the 4 instead of from the 1.

 

Yes. The Bills were short on an earlier tush push in the 1st Quarter.

 

In Joe Buscaglia's The Athletic analysis of the failed sneak, he pointed out that the Bills used a different approach than the one that has been so successful previously:

 

"On most of the Bills’ sneak attempts this season, they’ve put some receivers on the field with a running back lined up in the backfield. Having that personnel on the field keeps the threat of throwing the ball, even if it’s a slight chance given how often the Bills like to run the quarterback sneak with Allen, which keeps smaller defenders on the field. But the group the Bills put on the field for that first-and-goal attempt from the one-yard line had no deception whatsoever. The Bills went extra heavy, using sixth offensive lineman Alec Anderson, tight end Dawson Knox, tight end Zach Davidson and fullback Reggie Gilliam on the field at once. The other skill player was James Cook, who they split out wide and had a safety up against him. The Bills’ personnel is important because it allowed the Rams to match personnel, and they went even heavier than the Bills did.

The Rams used a group of four heavier defensive linemen in the middle of the formation and four edge rushers who normally battle at the line of scrimmage. It was those eight all lined up in a row, with their usual two inside linebackers roaming on the second level to see where Allen would try his rush.

Instead of going with what has worked time and time again, the Bills had no one lined up in the backfield, and instead called Davidson in motion to the backfield and then snapped the ball. Davidson extended his arms to try and get to Allen to get a push for him, but by that point, the Rams had already infiltrated between the left tackle and guard to stop Allen’s momentum. And with that many large players all piled into one area, it would take even longer than normal to get everyone up, to the line and to run another play."

 

 

12 hours ago, ddaryl said:

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/could-sean-mcdermotts-game-management-cost-bills-shot-title

others are noticing McD's short commings with game clock management

 

This is a very well-written and well-researched article. I've not read the writer's material before but he's dead on.

 

"Tom Brady, the best situational player in the history of the game, laid out the Bills path to victory: throw for a touchdown, complete the PAT, kick off, stop the Rams for a three-and-out with a timeout after each play and then bring the ball into field-goal range for a win. 

Brady warned: Whatever the Bills do, they cannot run the ball on the goal line.

But that's exactly what they did.

At the 1-yard line with one minute and six seconds left, Allen ran the ball on a QB sneak. The Rams stuffed Allen, and the Bills had to call a timeout. Their chances of winning plummeted.

"Now you’ve gotta onside kick. We’ve got a 3% chance on an onsides kick. … That changes the entire complexity of the last minute and two seconds of the game," Brady said. "Even if they score, what’s the big deal? You’re gonna have to go for an onsides kick. I did not like that one bit. That could've just cost them the game right there."

 

It did."

 

It's sad that Tom Brady could read the situation clearly and Joe Brady/McDermott couldn't.

 

Said Joe Brady:

 

"You look at us on the 1-yard line this year, and we haven’t been stopped on a QB sneak outside of this game. The only one that didn’t work going into this game was an illegal formation. … At that point — percentages-wise — the highest percentage play was the QB sneak. But at the same time, the cost at not getting it essentially did cost us the game," Brady said. "So I have to do a better job in that situation. And it’s something we’re continuing to evaluate. … We’ve got to be better. I’ve got to be better."

It’s nice of Brady to take the blame there. But this is what head coaches are for. McDermott, who is not a playcaller, has to step in to override his coordinators when they can’t see the bigger picture. McDermott let the mistake happen."

 

Said the writer:

 

"Instead of plugging the leaks, the Bills need to figure out why the leaks are happening.

It's not enough to look at their in-game failures and say: We won't do that again. Every game is different. Every decision is different. McDermott might need a better infrastructure in place so he can quality control his coordinators... It’s worth noting that Marc Lubick has the title of game management coach for the Bills. He’s been with the team as long as McDermott but only stepped into the game management role in 2020. It’s unclear, however, exactly how involved Lubick gets in these situations and decisions.

"Those are not easy situations overall. There’s a lot of communication that has to unfold. … [We’ll] adjust our process a little and hone that in a little bit closer," McDermott said.

That process is everything for the Bills. This is a Super Bowl-caliber team. Its coach needs to be ready to make Super Bowl-caliber decisions. And he doesn't have a consistent track record of doing that."

 

[Doc Brown]

19 minutes ago, Sierra Foothills said:

Josh Allen has a red zone interception % of 2.3 which is 17th best all time. Not throwing due to fear of being intercepted is a fearful and losing approach IMO. Josh is one of the best run/pass option QBs in history. You put the ball in his hands and expect that he'll make the right play... which is a pretty good bet. The sneak in this situation is a bad call for the exact reason we witnessed.

Even if he throws a pick we were in desperation mode anyways so who really cares.  Three passes to the endzone and then maybe call the tush push on 4th down.

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Even if he throws a pick we were in desperation mode anyways so who really cares.  Three passes to the endzone and then maybe call the tush push on 4th down.

 

Yep. That's the point. Nobody is saying other plays were bound to work. But as soon as they went sneak and timeout the game was lost. There were other plays you could have called that might not have worked but wouldn't have ended the game by not working. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Year 8 now for McDermott. 

 

It's not going to get better. 

 

We talk about the Josh Allen experience. This stuff is baked into the Sean McDermott experience. 

[Drew21PA]

Ok Brady took the bullet 

 

if McDermott is the man he says he is and his supporters do - he wouldn’t have even permitted that and been screaming in his headset as the team rushed down the field to the 1 yard line “PASS!  Pass! PASS!”

 

instewd he was passive and blame goes to “I trusted them” doesn’t matter your the head of this monster - you make the call and overrule 

I was optimistic maybe we could do better in the playoffs

 

no way - sorry I just see McDermott floundering the opportunity again.  I see it happening this week even

 

idk - he hasn’t learned to know the entire game situationally like the Super Bowl coaches do and will 

[GaryPinC]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Even if he throws a pick we were in desperation mode anyways so who really cares.  Three passes to the endzone and then maybe call the tush push on 4th down.

The other thing is Josh could have rolled and tried to scramble it in on any pass plays.  I didn't notice the Rams spying him during the game.

[Drew21PA]

32 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

Ppl playing Madden understand this basic stuff... I don't get how his brain shuts off during end of game/ critical situations 

 

 

I feel maybe he thinks too much..,instead of going with his gut he questions himself and may permit others too much rope

 

i can see Bill B absolutely livid on his headset if he had even heard a run play called there.  Of course Josh wanted that call - he’s a gamer - if they score there - best call ever BUT - wrong one because look what happened 

 

I question McDermott decision making becuase I feel maybe he doesn’t know the plays - maybe he doesn’t know the offense good enough so they called the play and he didn’t know what it was 

 

unacceptable but I think this happens more times than we could count or know so he’s not prepared and doesn’t know his team and entire operstion

 

all observation and opinion I think he knows his defense when he’s engaged but - this week he probably took it easy preparing for the lions - and let babich do it all and it blew up

 

i feel next weeks defense is going to be tough because McDermott skipped over the rams - I really do.  He knew the lions was a big game and he skipped the rams imo

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

56 minutes ago, Drew21PA said:

I feel maybe he thinks too much..,instead of going with his gut he questions himself and may permit others too much rope

 

i can see Bill B absolutely livid on his headset if he had even heard a run play called there.  Of course Josh wanted that call - he’s a gamer - if they score there - best call ever BUT - wrong one because look what happened 

 

I question McDermott decision making becuase I feel maybe he doesn’t know the plays - maybe he doesn’t know the offense good enough so they called the play and he didn’t know what it was 

 

unacceptable but I think this happens more times than we could count or know so he’s not prepared and doesn’t know his team and entire operstion

 

all observation and opinion I think he knows his defense when he’s engaged but - this week he probably took it easy preparing for the lions - and let babich do it all and it blew up

 

i feel next weeks defense is going to be tough because McDermott skipped over the rams - I really do.  He knew the lions was a big game and he skipped the rams imo

The first sneak is pretty justifiable imo heck I think bill b might’ve done the same thing given Brady/allen’s successful sneak percentages (idk if he’s coaching us in this hypothetical haha) but it felt kind of like we either second guessed the line up and sneak it again without a to or just gave up and played for the onside kick…maybe that’s worse than not knowing what’s going on idk. Either way I’m all for flaming the decision because you’re pretty much obligated to sneak twice without using a to once you do the first one and we didn’t do it

 

you pretty much need to punch that in the end zone on a very early down to have a chance. I’d run my highest probability play there.  if it takes three throws to score the td you’re probably killing a lot of time.  Those goal to go throws are tough sledding even when you can throw it at/behind the LOS and run it in.  People saying Josh could’ve ran it in from a broken passing play don’t make a lot of sense to me because that sucks up a ton of time and if he’s tackled short it’s game over.
 

 Getting the td on 1st down rather than 3rd or 4th probably saves you the 10-15 seconds you absolutely need to have a chance.  Obviously if you know you’re completing a passing td on first or second down you take that 100% of the time but I think this board is assigning an unrealistically high probability to that happening.  The threat of the run is really what sets up those goal line throws which would not have been there.  If Josh kills 10 seconds trying to pass then runs it in himself on a wild play you take that if you’re the rams 

 

[TheFunPolice]

3 passes and then sneak on 4th down.

 

Save all 3 timeouts.

 

Rams likely run it 3 times and if you stop them you get the ball with 35-40 seconds just needing FG range. Teams do that 50-75% of the time, especially if they have a top QB and an offense that has been clicking all day. 

 

Versus burning the timeout and having to rely on an onside kick, which basically never works. 

 

So no, "both options weren't bad". One gave your players on offense, defense and special teams the CHANCE to make plays to win the game, the other took any chance of that away. 

 

That is 100% on the coaches. 

 

Your offense gets 4 chances from the 1 to score the TD

Your special teams get the chance to kickoff deep and pin the Rams

Your defense gets the chance to hold them to a quick 3 and out

Your special teams gets another chance in the kicking game, this time to return the punt

Your offense gets the chance to get into FG range for the winning kick

Your special teams gets the chance to win the game

 

OR

 

You hope for a miracle that never works

 

Edited December 13 by TheFunPolice

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, GaryPinC said:

The other thing is Josh could have rolled and tried to scramble it in on any pass plays.  I didn't notice the Rams spying him during the game.

Then you run the same risk as QB sneaking it with a lower probability of success.  Unless you're talking about rolling out for a pass and only running if there's a clear path to the endzone.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Then you run the same risk as QB sneaking it with a lower probability of success.  Unless you're talking about rolling out for a pass and only running if there's a clear path to the endzone.

That's how I took it

 

The rollout has a throwaway available

[Thrivefourfive]

On 12/12/2024 at 6:24 AM, ddaryl said:

https://www.foxsports.com/stories/nfl/could-sean-mcdermotts-game-management-cost-bills-shot-title

others are noticing McD's short commings with game clock management

Send it to however critically evaluates McDermott’s late in-game decisions,,,preferably that’s not named McDermott. 

 

excerpt:

 

The Bills are the only team in the past 45 years to be tied or leading in the final minute of the game, inside their own 5-yard line and throw three straight passes, per ESPN Research. 

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Then you run the same risk as QB sneaking it with a lower probability of success.  Unless you're talking about rolling out for a pass and only running if there's a clear path to the endzone.

Yep, exactly how I look at it.  QB RPO.🙂

The real problem being our coaches being stuck on analytics instead of paying attention to the reality on the field.

Edited December 13 by GaryPinC

[Thrivefourfive]

It wasn’t that hard to reach a level of competency for McDermott. He just needed to think ONE play ahead. Just one. And he had plenty of time to think this through:

 

If we score, great. XP. Then kickoff.

If we don’t score, spike it, or rush up and hit it again, and repeat outcome scenarios.

 

I just cannot be settled with this guy’s mental capacity. I’m not. 

[Koufax]

On 12/9/2024 at 9:50 PM, BobbyC81 said:

And if they threw it, and the ball was tipped and intercepted, the naysayers would say “why didn’t they just sneak it”

 

Right, there will always be people who judge the success of failure of the outcome. Josh getting stopped on a one yard sneak is an unlikely outcome, but a devastating one.  Just like for it to matter our defense has to be able to force a three and out after.

 

But let's come back to some math on 1st and 1, with the goal of scoring a TD with as much time and three timeouts as possible.

Option 1: Pass, Pass, TBD.

Result 1: Success (TD on one of first two plays)

Result 2: Soft fail (two incompletions, 12 seconds off the clock, and either try another pass or decide to go to option 2 now)

Result 3: Hard fail (fumbled snap, interception, sack)

 

Option 2: Sneak, TBD

Result 1: Success (TD on sneak)

Result 2: Soft fail (stopped, but able to get quickly up, no timeout, spike or 2nd down being run quickly)

Result 3: Hard fail (stopped and stuck in a pile, use a timeout, fumble, sack)

 

Throw some percentages on there, and you can run some calculations on which is more likely to get you a TD with three timeouts.  Either success does, but on failure it depends. I think timeout was the huge wrong decision even if they rush, and getting to a spike or a second attempt in a hurry would have been better math.

 

If you are not going to use the timeout and know what is next, the high percentage sneak doesn't cost you the game. But the mere decision to pass on first doesn't guarantee success and doesn't avoid disaster. I think it would have increased probability of success and passing was the right call, just like running Marshawn instead of trying the slant was better Math, but the Seahawks slant could have been a TD and Marshawn could have been stuffed or fumbled.

 

The outcome does not prove the correct or incorrect choice, but a failed outcome can definitely draw attention to the high likelihood that the most probable successful choice wasn't chosen.

[Koufax]

1 minute ago, Thrivefourfive said:

It wasn’t that hard to reach a level of competency for McDermott. He just needed to think ONE play ahead. Just one. And he had plenty of time to think this through:

 

If we score, great. XP. Then kickoff.

If we don’t score, spike it, or rush up and hit it again, and repeat outcome scenarios.

 

I just cannot be settled with this guy’s mental capacity. I’m not. 

 

Yes, it had to be one play ahead. If a sneak was the call and a sneak failed, calling a timeout was not the smartest outcome. Not having that in Josh's headset and either spike or run it again, and no timeout can be used under any circumstances is the mistake. I don't personally love the first down sneak, and prefer a pass on first down, but that is more debatable.  Calling a timeout is the failed decision and mathematically indefensible. Not knowing what you were going to do if the sneak failed and/or choosing the exact worst thing you could do, both lowered our chances of a comeback.

 

If McD says "We like the call of the sneak on first, but know we can't take the timeout if it fails" I'm fine with it. But the "we hoped it would go well, and didn't have a plan for if it didn't, so just picked the worst thing to do" is bad game management.