Josh needs 13 more TD’s to keep the streak alive - Will he do it?

[Ray Stonada]

The cool thing this year is Josh has do to less to win by more, but when he needs to he still pulls off the impossible almost every time.

[Captain Hindsight]

3 a game is possible for Josh. He only threw 17 passes Sunday and accounted for 4. Dude is an animal 

[djp14150]

The stat is 40 total TDs in throwing+ running+ receiving

 

in 4 games if he could put up 3.5 per game would get him 14

 

2-3 TDs passing per game+ 1 rushing per game 

[Charles Romes]

Is the throw/catch being counted as 1 or 2

[GunnerBill]

It will be tight IMO. Whether he does or he doesn't I'd guess it will be no more than 2 either way. I'd say somewhere between 11 and 15. 

[Goin Breakdown]

We've got threads about Rex Ryan, Dionte Johnson, Xavier Worthy (on the front page) and people are debating whether Joshes accolades should be discussed on a Bills message board?  Seems Bills related to me. 

Edited December 4 by Goin Breakdown

[julian]

4 hours ago, Malazan said:

 

The Bills have 43 touchdowns this season. That's good for 3rd in the league. So why be worried if Allen is getting credit for them?

 

This poster is also not making that point, he's concerned that Allen's streak continues.

If a TBD poster were a pebble in a shoe..: I don’t believe anyone is worried or concerned, I believe every Bills fan would like to see his record extend another season and it’s just a question asking if you believe it will.

 

I say yes he gets there with the next two games being in Perfect weather/dome games.

[Cash]

I voted yes, but I think it’ll be tight. There are realistic scenarios where he doesn’t play week 18, and 13 TDs in just 4 games is a very tall order. Even if he plays the full remaining slate, McD is still going to be happy to pull Allen out of any more blowouts. 
 

With that said, I feel like the passing game ticks up down the stretch as pass-catchers get healthy, and that gets Allen close enough to seal the deal in week 18. If he’s at 38 or 39 and we need that game, bank on us throwing at the goal line. 

[wjag]

He has two domes games.  Could get 6 there.  That leaves 7 in three games against the Jets and Pats (x2).

 

The 2 domes games could be track meets.  So I say it is likely.

[Draconator]

I voted Yes, but really, does this matter in terms of the Bills getting a Lombardi?

[folz]

Josh is averaging 2.25 TDs per game this year. The same rate over the next five games would net him 11.25 more TDs (just short). And since we still play the Jets and then the Pats twice, it's just as easy for him to be sitting some 4th quarters as having monster games. So, I'm going to guess he winds up short. But maybe if the Rams and Detroit games are shootouts, who knows.

 

Was curious if it had been done before. Unfortunately main stats are for passing TDs only (don't include rushing TDs). For passing TDs, Brady and Rodgers both had 3 seasons of 40+ passing TDs (in their careers, not consecutively). Josh has never had a 40+ passing TD season (he's had 37, 36, and 35)...but we all know that a lot of his TDs come on the ground.

 

I'll look up a few guys to include their rushing TDs:

Mahomes has had 3 seasons of 40+ TDs, but they weren't consecutive.

Brady had 4 seasons with 40+ TDs (again, not consecutive).

Brees had 3 consecutive seasons with 40+ TDs (those were the only seasons in his career though)

Lamar Jackson has 1 season with 40+ TDs.

Aaron had 6 seasons of 40+ TDs in his career (twice did it back-to-back, but never 4 or 5 consecutively)

Peyton had 2 seasons of 40+ TDs (not consecutively)

Favre had back-to-back 40+ TDs (but they were the only two years he went over 40 in his career)

Marino had 2 seasons with 40+ TDs (not consecutive)

Matt Stafford has 2 seasons with 40+ TDs (not consecutive)

 

So, it appears that only Rodgers and Brady have had 4 or more seasons with 40+ total touchdowns in a career. If Josh did it this year, he would pass Brady for most 40+ TD seasons in a career (with 5 seasons) and he'd only be 1 season behind matching Rodgers with 6 in a career. So, Josh is already in elite company, but to do it 4 or 5 seasons in a row has never been done (as far as I can tell). Brees did it in 3 consecutive seasons (for 2nd best).

 

Only 25 times in league history did a QB have 42+ TDs in a season. Josh has 4 of those 25. And only 4 of those 25 seasons were by a QB not named Marino, Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Mahomes, and Allen.

[Thurman#1]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

there tends to be a strong relationship between TDs and wins go figure

 

 

Yup.

 

TDs.

 

Not TDs by a QB versus TDs by an RB particularly, though. Pick sixes, punt runback TDs and TDs off blocked kicks work just as well too. Same amount of points for all of 'em. Also TDs you prevent the opponent from scoring.

 

 

Edited December 4 by Thurman#1

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

Oh without a doubt if he plays all 17. That’s 2.6 tuddies per game. Easily doable. You know good and well Josh is going to have at least  one monster 4-5 TD game. So that would make him need 2 a game for the remaining for. When is the last time Allen had a 1 TD game ? Now I’m genuinely curious 

Edited December 4 by ChronicAndKnuckles

[Buffalo03]

6 hours ago, US Egg said:

Kinda hope he isn’t playing game 17.

We're still possibly gonna fighting for the 1. Secondly, you can't keep him out week 17, and 18. The last thing we need is rustiness going into the playoffs. If we have a shot at the 1, he needs to go all the way to week 18. Even if we clinch the 1 before then, he still needs to play a half at the very least in week 18. 

[Neo]

6 hours ago, Malazan said:

Why the hell would anyone devote an ounce of energy to caring about this?

 

Same reason someone would care enough about the question to submit a post about it.  

 

[H2o]

We're likely playing for the #1 seed going into week 18. That means he'll be playing every game. I don't see that as a tall task for him in 5 games. 

[Process]

It will be close. 2.6 per game is around what he's averaged over this stretch so it's possible. 2 domes games and 3 games vs garbage divisional opponents. 

 

Stafford and Tua just torched NE for a combined 8 passing touchdowns. 

[Boatdrinks]

38 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

We're still possibly gonna fighting for the 1. Secondly, you can't keep him out week 17, and 18. The last thing we need is rustiness going into the playoffs. If we have a shot at the 1, he needs to go all the way to week 18. Even if we clinch the 1 before then, he still needs to play a half at the very least in week 18. 

Yup. I’d guess the 1 seed is probably in play going into week 18. If the Bills can’t improve their spot then Josh probably plays the first half only. 

Edited December 4 by Boatdrinks

[TheBrownBear]

I voted no.  I just have a feeling those late season divisional games will be ugly, low scoring, poor weather affairs.  I could see him banking 6 of them in the next two games though.

[SRQ_BillsFan]

11 hours ago, Gregg said:

I don't think he gets it. Bills are more balanced and running the ball more with Cook. Look at last week as an example. Allen threw it only 17 times completed 13 for 148 yards and the Bills still scored 35 points. As long as the Bills are winning that is all that matters. It doesn't matter if Allen gets 40 TD's or not.

But he still had 3 TDs.