McD: Has your view changed?

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

This is still one of my main issues, what is the objective achievement that we're celebrating? If it's winning a Super Bowl, well then, you're saying 31 other teams are automatically failures every year. If it's getting to a Super Bowl, well then that seems odd, because commentary upthread was he's only a "good coach" if he never wins a Super Bowl. 

 

Your point boils down to the fact that you believe people cannot improve or improve significantly enough to make a difference. You must have loved Josh Allen on draft day... should I check the receipts?

But that's not the case. As I said upthread, I don't think our playoff results are random. I don't think his system can hold up in the playoffs. It's designed for having a lead. It has serious weaknesses in playoff football where running games are better and QB's are more efficient. The data strongly supports our defense being an extreme negative outlier vs regulars season performance when just base average probably gets us to the Super Bowl. It's not just KC, again, discussed upthread, It also doesn't have to be winning a Super Bowl to me. Why don't we start by playing good defense against an NFL level QB? By my account the only time that has occurred in the playoffs is when we had a wind tunnel vs Lamar.  

4 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

What?  Literally zero?  Did you even look at the thread brought up that was preseason asking if the team was a playoff contender?  Many posters said the Bills wouldn't make the playoffs.   And the people who were worried about the playoffs weren't all anti-McDermott, a lot of it had to do with the talent of the team, the "retool", the digging out of the Diggs disaster and the cap restraints that came with it.

 

But now that we're safely in the playoffs the goal posts are trying to be moved.  It's some playoff type metric that needs to be met - be it divisional round, AFCCG, or SB appearance, or SB win - whatever it is that isn't accomplished it seems.

 

It has 100% been about the postseason to me from the start of this year and last year.  If other people thought we couldn't get to the playoffs with Josh Allen, they have an issue, not me. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

no, the goal posts are not being moved. you just don't understand where they're supposed to be

 

the state of the afceast combined w Allen and a stable FO means we are going to be heavy favorites for the division every single year

 

and arguing that postseason success is such a crazy threshold to hold a HC is on its face ludicrous

With a HF QB..... 

[Mikie2times]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

no, the goal posts are not being moved. you just don't understand where they're supposed to be

 

the state of the afceast combined w Allen and a stable FO means we are going to be heavy favorites for the division every single year

 

and arguing that postseason success is such a crazy threshold to hold a HC is on its face ludicrous

We weren't actually favorites to win the division, but again, that's oddsmakers fault.  As I said upthread, 65+ QBR seasons have resulted in 21 consecutive winning records and a winning% of over 70% in the regular season. Burrow will break that trend this year with an all time bad defensive performance. But Josh has been above that threshold every season he has played. To think in this division the absolute floor is not the playoffs is seriously moving the goal posts or just not understanding what we have. 

Edited December 6 by Mikie2times

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean some of the people who would say that now were also predicting 7-9 wins before the season. Not all, granted. But there were people who are now arguing "ah its just the regular season" who were in the pre season predictions thread forecasting playoff misses and losing seasons in some cases.

 

I expected a playoff season but I'm also pleasantly surprised at how well the team has performed. I do credit McDermott for that. Like I said earlier in the thread he has shown me enough this year that in my eyes he has earned another year with this 2nd window of core players no matter what happens in the playoffs. I'm not trying to be unreasonable about my expectations. Nor do I think you're being unreasonable about your continued support.

 

One positive I will give McDermott over Shanahan is his ability to hold the team together in difficult times. Like last year it looked like we were about to be out of the playoffs entirely, but McDermott rallied the team and managed to steal the division with an impressive win streak. This year the 49ers under similar circumstances are seemingly running for the bus at this point. Shanahan looks despondent at press conferences and isn't leading his team. It is the classic culture/leader coach vs the classic X's and O's coach. So I recognize and appreciate McDermott's strengths. At this point though I'm just not patient enough to give him all of Allen's 20s and continue to be the coach beyond that if he hasn't even reached the Super Bowl.

[Einstein's Dog]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

no, the goal posts are not being moved. you just don't understand where they're supposed to be

 

the state of the afceast combined w Allen and a stable FO means we are going to be heavy favorites for the division every single year

 

and arguing that postseason success is such a crazy threshold to hold a HC is on its face ludicrous

We weren't heavy favorites this year.  Some years are different than others.

 

When someone says that they "imagine literally zero" seems disingenuous and comes across with a negative slant to create a new objective.

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

We weren't heavy favorites this year.  Some years are different than others.

 

When someone says that they "imagine literally zero" seems disingenuous and comes across with a negative slant to create a new objective.

How could anybody criticize him for what he has done in the regular season or not be impressed with what we have done this year? If that doesn't equal literally zero, it's not my fault people can be unreasonable. The playoffs are an entirely different story.  

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

We weren't heavy favorites this year.  Some years are different than others.

 

When someone says that they "imagine literally zero" seems disingenuous and comes across with a negative slant to create a new objective.

if you need the boogeyman of someone who doesn't trust McDermott's regular season results to make your argument you don't have one

[JGMcD2]

11 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

We weren't actually favorites to win the division, but again, that's oddsmakers fault.  As I said upthread, 65+ QBR seasons have resulted in 21 consecutive winning records and a winning% of over 70% in the regular season. Burrow will break that trend this year with an all time bad defensive performance. But Josh has been above that threshold every season he has played. To think in this division the absolute floor is not the playoffs is seriously moving the goal posts or just not understanding what we have. 

You've been pounding this stat the entire thread. He has not been above that threshold in every season he has played.  

 

Josh had a sub 50 QBR in 2018 and the Bills went 6-10. (Bills were 5-6 when he started)

 

Josh had a sub 50 QBR in 2019 and the Bills went 10-6. 

 

*Bonus*

 

Tyrod Taylor had a sub 60 QBR in 2017 and the Bills went 9-7.

 

So the Bills are 2 games above .500 in the McDermott era when they have below 65+ QBR seasons. Two winning seasons with a QBR below that threshold. 

Edited December 6 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

We weren't actually have favorites, but again, that's oddsmakers fault.  As I said upthread, 65+ QBR seasons have resulted in 21 consecutive winning records and a winning% of over 70% in the regular season. Burrow will break that trend this year with an all time bad defensive performance. But Josh has been above that threshold every season he has played. To think in this division the absolute floor is not the playoffs is seriously moving the goal posts or just not understanding what we have. 

 

FWIW I agree that for a franchise with Josh Allen at Quarterback, even in a bit of a re-set year, the playoffs are a minimum requirement. I always felt that and said that pre-season. The floor for this team, barring a Josh injury, was 11 wins IMO. 

 

But not everyone on your side of the fence in this thread did think that pre-season. They were wrong, but there were some of them predicting 7 to 9 wins. 

[Mikie2times]

4 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

You've been pounding this stat the entire thread. He has not been above that threshold in every season he has played.  

 

Josh had a sub 50 QBR in 2018 and the Bills went 6-10.

 

Josh had a sub 50 QBR in 2019 and the Bills went 10-6. 

 

*Bonus*

 

Tyrod Taylor had a sub 60 QBR in 2017 and the Bills went 9-7.

 

So the Bills are 2 games above .500 in the McDermott era when they have below 65+ QBR seasons. Two winning seasons with a QBR below that threshold. 

So since 2020 when he has got the 65+QBR he's 58-20 but just two games over .500 without it.  

Edited December 6 by Mikie2times

[JGMcD2]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

So since 2020 when has got the 65+QBR he's 58-20 but just two games over .500 without it. Got it. 

Thanks for fixing it.

 

What is Shanahan's record when his QB has a QBR below 65?

[Mikie2times]

3 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Thanks for fixing it.

 

What is Shanahan's record when his QB has a QBR below 65?

I mean Jimmy G was 38-17 and he only was over a 65 for one season when he played in 5 games. Purdy was over that number the last two years and he will end up very close this season but is currently under it. 

[Einstein's Dog]

12 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It has 100% been about the postseason to me from the start of this year and last year.  If other people thought we couldn't get to the playoffs with Josh Allen, they have an issue, not me. 

 

Now you're coming back to your own opinion.  However, when you said "I would imagine literally zero posters on this forum" you are so far off that it seems fair to question your bias.

 

I get it, your opinion won't change unless there is a playoff difference.  But to the OP, someone else's opinion could change, that this regular season has, to some, already exceeded preseason expectations.

[JerseyBills]

48 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I would imagine literally zero posters on this forum didn't trust him in the regular season. Lets celebrate the crow eating over a Super Bowl or hell, getting to one, or hell getting to a conference championship game. Not regular season success. 

I mean you have a point,  like all the McD non believers, the playoffs are brought up, but living in North jesey/NYC area. man the Jets and Giants fans would kill to experience the playoffs with a legit contender. 

McD had given us at least that for a 5th straight year, and while he hasn't been successful in completing the mission,  it's a razor thin line.

Literally a play or 2 away from potential SB success. But I've said and will continue to say, This is one of , if not the best cultures in football.  This man came in and immediately made a porous, laughing stock of the league team into one of the most dominant 

[FireChans]

40 minutes ago, NewEra said:

lol-  is that what you think I said?  
 

do you think that Shanahan would’ve gone to 3 AFCCGs and a SB in 4 seasons if he had to play the chiefs in 2 divisional rounds and 1 AFFCG?  

I’m ASKING you the question. I don’t think McD would have. Do you?
 

To your second question? If he had Josh Allen at QB, yes I think it’s possible. That’s the point lol. I think Shanny would ABSOLUTELY have at least one SB appearance. Maybe 1-2 playoff losses to the Chiefs. 
 

 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Thanks for fixing it.

 

What is Shanahan's record when his QB has a QBR below 65?

 

I know you have been looking seasons so not direct comparison but game by game the last two seasons it is 3-8. In the same period when Josh is below 65 QBR the Bills are 7-5. 

Edited December 6 by GunnerBill

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I know you have been looking seasons so not direct comparison but game by game the last two seasons it is 3-8. In the same period when Josh is below 65 QBR the Bills are 7-5. 

How about playoffs

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

How about playoffs

 

Josh's career they are 2-3 playoffs when he is below 65 QBR. 

 

Do bear in mind I am not the one waving 65 as a magic threashold. But that is the number.

[GoBills808]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Josh's career they are 2-3 playoffs when he is below 65 QBR. 

 

Do bear in mind I am not the one waving 65 as a magic threashold. But that is the number.

Right

 

Now look at JimmyG and Purdy 

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Right

 

Now look at JimmyG and Purdy 

 

Shanny QBs 5-2.

[Andrew Son]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Right

 

Now look at JimmyG and Purdy 

What a silly comp.  Let's pay Josh what they pay Purdy, then we could build a better team around him that could better withstand below average QB play