McD: Has your view changed?

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Last year was KC's retool year. The never beat a good team in the regular season and had major roster issues at WR which also cost them games.

 

How'd Reid and Mahomes handle it? Oh yeah, they won a Super Bowl.

 

I'm not trying to unfarily witch hunt anyone, but I'm also not going to make excuses when other top teams are able to succeed in similar situations.

I'm not saying it can't be done.  But I don't think you should expect it.  Just because another team in a different year exceeded their expectations, we should not cloud the evaluation of what our team has done this year.

 

The Bills were universally touted as retooling and making the playoffs was a realistic goal.  

 

Now that it has been accomplished many are moving the goal posts and saying they need a playoff run (or even more unreasonable a SB)

[colin]

21 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

It's really not that simple. His biggest supporters want to make it that simple but the reality is the Colts and Bengals had offensive performances vs us in the playoffs that would have been among the best the entire season. Not playoffs, the entire season. Same goes for those Chiefs, again in the context of the whole year, the playoffs vs us was near the very best. That's not an opinion either, its all in the EPA of those performances. 

 

So is it just injuries and the Chiefs when it stretches multiple years, multiple teams? I don't think that's likely. I believe it's a schematic issue. As our ability to to perform worse in the playoffs in DVOA vs regular season is indeed a historic combination. What those defensive playoff performances coincide with is a lot of yards being given up on the ground. Which is fine in the regular season when you have a lead most of the year. Teams just keep throwing into our strength and most don't have very good QB's doing so. It's not as fine in the playoffs when QB's with 3rd and short will kill you and running games are capable of being methodical. Did the Baltimore game not take on the exact image I just described? We will see in the postseason. I think we are at much greater risk than people seem to think. 

 

 

It's just this simple.

 

He's a defensive guy, that's his claim to fame, and 100% of the reason why he was ever in the running as a HC.  He never won as a DC.  philly got rolled by the pats in the super bowl (was he even the dc then, or just on the staff?) and Carolina lost to denver, but TBH his d was pretty awesome and cam newton imploded.

 

either way, the offense, outside of the 2020 game when our offensive line roster was:

71 Ryan Bates T

65 Ike Boettger G

73 Dion Dawkins T

68 Jordan Devey G

76 Jon Feliciano G

60 Mitch Morse C

77 Ty Nsekhe T

75 Daryl Williams T

66 Brian Winters G

 

our D has been consistently bad vs the run, our O has balled out (cinci perhaps being the exception).  the biggest thing, as mikie made clear so many times, is that we went from a statistically very good or great d to just getting trucked, our d having been essentially solved and not even threatening teams to punt.  13 seconds in particular was clearly a coaching loss.  last year hosting kc the punted one single time when dorian saw the pitch instead of a man that no other nfl team even bothered to employ all season.

 

the evidence shows that our d underperforms in the playoffs, and while the os are better and the injuries count, the differences in measurable performance are too great for it to be just that (particularly when we bet kc 3 years in a row in kc in the regs).  mcd has been chocking in the playoffs as a coach.  

 

all of that can totally change if he just does his best work this season and wins a championship.  our d is not as great in the regular season as it has been, but ok linebacker play, really good corner play, and solid DL play (pass much more so than run) is enough for them to maybe force kc to punt about as many times as they did when they visited us a couple weeks back.

 

on O, we have what is a legit top 10 or even top 5 OL, two TEs who can start, some actual NFL WRs, a three headed monster at rb, and the greatest qb to ever lace em up for the buffalo bills organization.

 

someone made a point somewhere about tom coughlin.  coughlin had wonder teams with the jags, went 14-2 and lost to the titans in the playoffs at home after a bye week (the only team they lost to that season, imagine that!), and then was up and down at the giants.  he flipped a switch and basically played god father coach to  team with literal maniacs at OC and DC, playing aggressive green light football and never being intimidated.  the bills have a team that can do their own version of that this season, and if mcd jumps over that hurdle he will legit be in the conversation for being an all time great coach.  if he returns to poor postseason form, then he's just the modern shottenheimer, who never had a qb who could sniff allen's jock.

[JGMcD2]

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Beane and McD.

 

I don’t know what your point is. They found Josh, so they deserve to get as many chances as they want to fail with him? Unlike the other coaches who have done more with far lesser QB talent, and have built extremely star-heavy talented rosters?

 

This isn’t a discussion about if we were starting a fictional franchise. If it were, you would be right, the Lynch/Shanny combo has completely bungled the QB room. That’s their biggest red mark. Luckily, here in Buffalo, we have a wonderful, incredible, proven QB, so that’s red mark doesn’t really matter.

They’ve had three cracks at finding their QB, three different ways, and still haven’t been able to do it. They’ve built a talented roster, so they deserve to get as many chances as they want to fail at finding a QB? 

Lynch and Shanahan felt that Trey Lance was worth moving three 1st Round picks in order to acquire. They must have considered him to be quite talented? Everyone thought they were going to develop the next Josh Allen… but they weren’t capable of doing that.

 

You’re giving too much credit to Shanahan/Lynch and not enough credit to McDermott/Beane. They didn’t just find Josh, they developed him into the wonderful, incredible, proven QB. 

[GaryPinC]

7 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

You have to give McD credit for building and maintaining a solid team culture.  Some pooh pooh it, but culture is critical to success.  He has gone through several coordinators, but has 2 now that are sympatico with his philosophies on both sides of the ball.   He seems to be getting more aggressive with on 4th down.  He still needs work on in game decisions and adjustments, but overall he's in the top echelon of guys in the league.  For those who want to replace him I can only say in my life experiences that when you think the grass is greener on the other side, most of the time the grass turns out to be a lot browner instead.

Do people really pooh-pooh it?  I know I deeply appreciate it given the 17+ years previous.  If the grass we're eating now isn't growing us to our goal, do we keep munching happily or do we take a chance across the fence and trust our FO to get us to the right meadow, even if we have to go through a bad one or two?

I don't want the greatest qb in our history to follow the Dan Marino path.  At some point we may need to change our leadership and luck.

 

McD is showing good improvement this year, let's hope he carries it through the playoffs. 

 

I already watched us lose 4 superbowls in a row with our star-studded defense getting taken to the woodshed for the first three.  If only Levy had the guts to fire Walt Corey and bring in a new voice/system for that talent.

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They did but they got some luck along the way. The Bills will still need a bit of that IMO to go the distance. 

I think any team does.  That's where coaching to create favorable situations and having as many playmakers as you can out on the field comes in.

Edited December 5 by GaryPinC

[FireChans]

14 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

They’ve had three cracks at finding their QB, three different ways, and still haven’t been able to do it. They’ve built a talented roster, so they deserve to get as many chances as they want to fail at finding a QB? 

Lynch and Shanahan felt that Trey Lance was worth moving three 1st Round picks in order to acquire. They must have considered him to be quite talented? Everyone thought they were going to develop the next Josh Allen… but they weren’t capable of doing that.

 

You’re giving too much credit to Shanahan/Lynch and not enough credit to McDermott/Beane. They didn’t just find Josh, they developed him into the wonderful, incredible, proven QB. 

Not sure you’re even listening at this point lol.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

 

I think any team does.  That's where coaching to create favorable situations and having as many playmakers as you can out on the field comes in.

 

Sure. But there are times you still need a bounce or a bit of injury luck

[JGMcD2]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Not sure you’re even listening at this point lol.

What am I missing? 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

No.

 

McD's side of the ball has failed us in literally every single postseason, along with his game management. Literally every single one. Since going to the AFC title game 4 years ago we've had 3 straight Division Round exits with a generational QB. 

 

He has wildly underperformed with what he's had to work with. He's been given a tremendous amount of resources for his side of the ball and a QB on the other side who has with the exception of one game delivered consistently over the years only to NEVER, ever come up big in big moments or games. 

 

It has to change in January for that sentiment to go away as many have said, it's that simple. Regular season "success" with at worst the 2nd best QB in the league and a generational talent just doesn't mean much. Potentially wasting his entire 20's with no Super Bowl because of the incredibly lackluster support in January from his side of the ball and game management responsibilities would be a massive problem and disappointment. 

 

I don't understand the faction of people who are saying we've had "too much success" to let him go. 3 straight Divisional Round exits with a guy you should be in the SB conversation with every year? One of those exits which directly featured his personal own massive meltdown that cost it for us? I don't get it. 

Edited December 5 by HomeskillitMoorman

[Rochesterfan]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

And why do we have the right QB? Who is responsible for molding the guy you consider “the best QB” ? 
 

I don’t think Josh would turn into Jimmy G with Shanny as his play caller, but I can make a serious argument that Josh never would’ve turned into Josh with Shanny as his HC. 
 

Exhibit A: Trey Lance 

Exhibit B: Robert Griffin III

 

I totally agree - especially coming out of college that Shanny offense would never have worked for Josh.

 

Even now I think Josh would struggle because Shanny doesn’t want guys that make play out of sequence - he wants you to hit the play like it was drawn up - sort of like Tua does in Miami.  That has never been Josh’s game - even when he hits checkdowns it is not always in timing with the route or the play because he is looking for a potential big play.

 

He has been better this year, but there are still times - see the Houston game that he passes up the easy play to try and make a bigger play.  Shanny doesn’t seem to put up with that and never has.

[JGMcD2]

49 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

I don't understand the faction of people who are saying we've had "too much success" to let him go. 3 straight Divisional Round exits with a guy you should be in the SB conversation with every year? One of those exits which directly featured his personal own massive meltdown that cost it for us? I don't get it. 

Would you take Sean Payton over Sean McDermott?

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

What am I missing? 

That because we don’t need a QB, the biggest black eye on Shanny/Lynch in not being able to find one is largely irrelevant.

 

Everything else they do ranges from pretty good to great, except for a few too many drafted RB’s. 
 

Kinda fits our situation like a glove.

[gordong]

its somewhat changed but I reserve judgement until after the Super Bowl. 

[DrDawkinstein]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

That because we don’t need a QB, the biggest black eye on Shanny/Lynch in not being able to find one is largely irrelevant.

 

Everything else they do ranges from pretty good to great, except for a few too many drafted RB’s. 
 

Kinda fits our situation like a glove.

 

And they've been to how many Super Bowls with the likes of Jimmy G and Brock Purdy? Compared to how many Super Bowls we have made it to with Josh.

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

And they've been to how many Super Bowls with the likes of Jimmy G and Brock Purdy? Compared to how many Super Bowls we have made it to with Josh.

The only reason they have been to a Super Bowl and we haven't is they don't play Kansas City in the playoffs. So I've been told. 

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Well, I don't look at it as McD, it's the entire coaching staff as well as Beane and company. So I think the things that have improved this year:

 

Both coordinators -

Babich has hit the ground running. I thought he would be blitzing more, but he is orchestrating and bend but don't break defense pretty well. I am hoping that if our base defense gets gashed like it did against the ravens he will have a wrinkle, but other than that I think he's done a fine job.

Brady has done a nice job blending the running and passing. Most of the time the offense has a decent rhythm (other than maybe early in some games) and we have been able to score when needed. 

 

The former ref making the calls on whether to challenge or not has been a good add. Seems like we are at least challenging things that make sense.

 

Beane went out and got Cooper. It hasn't paid dividends yet but I'm hoping he will be a big part of the playoff offense, it seems like he's still nursing that wrist.

 

For me, it's really the dynamic of how the coaches interact with each other and then how they interact with the front office. I think Babich/Brady and MCDermott are in lock step where in the past I don't think that's quite been the case. Daboll was pretty well documented and I have to think Frazier was a little soft for McD because of the way McD blitzed when he got ahold of the d last year. There doesn't seem to be much head shaking by McD in the press conferences after the game this year. I know everyone likes to pin everything on McD, but there is a level of autonomy that the coordinators get to do their own thing - they have the day to day leading of their group to do.

 

I think the 2024 group of coaches has gotten a lot out of these players. I'm pretty excited about us getting a little healthier as we move toward the playoffs and think we have a good shot of getting to the super bowl.

 

My only bbfs downer is around Bass. And it's a pretty big ledge considering our history.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

The only reason they have been to a Super Bowl and we haven't is they don't play Kansas City in the playoffs. So I've been told. 

and the bengals

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

And they've been to how many Super Bowls with the likes of Jimmy G and Brock Purdy? Compared to how many Super Bowls we have made it to with Josh.

I think the question to me is simple.

 

Give Lynch and Shanny the reins from 2020 -20224 and compare it to what Beane/McD did in those same years?

Who do you think would have more success over that span? I think it’s clearly Lynch and Shanny. 

[Mikie2times]

56 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

and the bengals

And I’m pretty sure last years Ravens. They got significantly better without Roman. Probably last years Texans as well. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

The only reason they have been to a Super Bowl and we haven't is they don't play Kansas City in the playoffs. So I've been told. 

 

That is correct. 0-5 against KC. Two of those being the two playoff meetings.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That is correct. 0-5 against KC. Two of those being the two playoff meetings.

That’s probably true. But they have never had comparable QB talent to KC.