What’s it gonna take to improve /prioritize our run defense?

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Who cares?  The only team that legit beat us with the run was the Ravens.  Our D is designed not to give up the big play.  Make them earn every inch.  Most teams can't sustain long drives against us, so they get a few explosive runs. We keep them out the EZ which is all that matters.

 

The poor run defense seems less like a talent issue and more a product of the scheme which is having positive results. 

[WideNine]

3 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Who cares?  The only team that legit beat us with the run was the Ravens.  Our D is designed not to give up the big play.  Make them earn every inch.  Most teams can't sustain long drives against us, so they get a few explosive runs. We keep them out the EZ which is all that matters.

 

Teams like the Ravens, Eagles, and Detroit I probably worry about the most.

 

In that Ravens game they got up on us quick, and gashed us on every run, and I think every trip to the red zone they scored. Combine that with our offense unable to get much going it was tough one to watch.

 

Our offense has come together a lot more since then, Samuel is getting healthier, and we have added Cooper so I would think we are in a much better position to hang with teams and make it more of a boat race if our defense is struggling.

 

 

[GASabresIUFan]

Quote

 

Looking forward to the playoffs, it seems a major vulnerability is run defense. The Bills could really struggle against a team with a strong running game such as the Ravens or Eagles. Realizing that major roster changes are unlikely, what can the Bills do to mitigate this threat? — John S.

The most common question in this Satchel dealt with concerns the Bills might face a quality ground attack in the postseason. Stands to reason that fans are reviewing the Bills at their worst to see where they might be susceptible, and images of Derrick Henry sprinting 87 yards for a touchdown remain vivid. The Ravens rushed for 271 yards in that Week 4 curb-stomping.

Health is the biggest improvement, although you can’t count on everyone avoiding the injury report the rest of the way. Buffalo in Week 4 was minus linebackers Terrel Bernard and Matt Milano and nickelback Taron Johnson, all of whom are back. None is a prototypical run-stopper, but that’s a lot of talent Baltimore offensive coordinator Todd Monken didn’t have to worry about.

They’re also among the most significant defenders who sustain Buffalo’s bend-don’t-break philosophy. In the Bills’ nickel base defense, opponents will gain yards on the ground. The point is to prevent explosive pass plays, force teams to convert more third downs and wait for them to make a mistake on their long trip down the field. Turnovers, punts, field goals.

Bills general manager Brandon Beane is limited in adding defensive tackle depth now. Run stuffers aren’t hanging out at the Big Tree Inn. The best he could do to shore up the interior run defense was signing old friend Quinton Jefferson last month after the Browns cut him. Rookie defensive tackle DeWayne Carter is close to returning from a wrist injury that has sidelined him since Week 7.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5971630/2024/12/05/the-satchel-bills-stadium-josh-allens-left-hand-december-dilemmas/

[Beck Water]

On 12/4/2024 at 5:01 PM, billsfan89 said:

 

The poor run defense seems less like a talent issue and more a product of the scheme which is having positive results. 

 

I think that's a fair take. 

 

The Bills scheme takes the attitude, "yards? Meh. It's points we'll keep from you."

 

It's built to defend against the pass, and ordinary RBs.  But it's susceptible to a Brute like Henry, because our "nickel" linebacker (Taron Johnson) and our linebacker "nickels" (smaller lighter LB) are built to defend the pass and OK at defending ordinary size RBs.  But put 'em there with 300 lb Patrick Ricard followed by 247 lb Travis Henry coming at 'em all game and the Laws of Physics are against them.

 

Still, we have to remember that when Henry ran us over, we were without Milano, Bernard, and Taron Johnson.  That's almost 30% of the Bills starting defense that the Ravens didn't have to worry about.  Kind of analogous to when KC got to face the "Little Sisters of the Poor", AJ Klein and one-winged Dodson along with Dane Jackson and one-foot Douglas at CB in the playoffs.

 

 

Edited December 6 by Beck Water

[Mat68]

3 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think that's a fair take. 

 

The Bills scheme takes the attitude, "yards? Meh. It's points we'll keep from you."

 

It's built to defend against the pass, and ordinary RBs.  But it's susceptible to a Brute like Travis Henry, because our "nickel" linebacker (Taron Johnson) and our linebacker "nickels" (smaller lighter LB) are built to defend the pass and OK at defending ordinary size RBs.  But put 'em there with 300 lb Patrick Ricard followed by 247 lb Travis Henry coming at 'em all game and the Laws of Physics are against them.

 

 

My worries vs Henry are diminished by 90% if Johnson, Milano, Benard, and Rapp play the whole game. 

[Beck Water]

27 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

My worries vs Henry are diminished by 90% if Johnson, Milano, Benard, and Rapp play the whole game. 

 

Agreed, but the Laws of Physics are still against them. 
 

 

[ganesh]

On 12/4/2024 at 8:55 AM, Snowbowl said:

Since we’ve been struggling against the run and Dorian Williams was a tackling machine maybe we should play three linebackers more in early downs. Not all the time but in likely run situations and if the weather dictates more of a run game. I know we haven’t done it much and don’t practice it much. But our last three games would be a good time to try it and get ready to use it some if needed in the playoffs. If not that then what are we going to do against a run heavy team like the Ravens?

Is he better than Taron ?  I doubt the Bills make that move consideirng what Johnson means to this scheme.

[Cash]

6 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

I think that's a fair take. 

 

The Bills scheme takes the attitude, "yards? Meh. It's points we'll keep from you."

 

It's built to defend against the pass, and ordinary RBs.  But it's susceptible to a Brute like Travis Henry, because our "nickel" linebacker (Taron Johnson) and our linebacker "nickels" (smaller lighter LB) are built to defend the pass and OK at defending ordinary size RBs.  But put 'em there with 300 lb Patrick Ricard followed by 247 lb Travis Henry coming at 'em all game and the Laws of Physics are against them.

 

Still, we have to remember that when Henry ran us over, we were without Milano, Bernard, and Taron Johnson.  That's almost 30% of the Bills starting defense that the Ravens didn't have to worry about.  Kind of analogous to when KC got to face the "Little Sisters of the Poor", AJ Klein and one-winged Dodson along with Dane Jackson and one-foot Douglas at CB in the playoffs.

 

 

When did Travis Henry come out of retirement?

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Cash said:

When did Travis Henry come out of retirement?

 

Brain fart sorry to trouble you to respond

[Richard Noggin]

On 12/3/2024 at 9:40 AM, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I’ve gotta see the lions game before I can judge how bad it is.  To me that’s a game where you want to load up against the run and trust benford to take st brown out of the game without a ton of help 

 

 

Then we're trusting Douglas to mark Williams all game? Or bracketing him while singling St. Brown? They both move around so much pre-snap which complicates things. And #9 is continually emerging as their most dangerous receiving threat. St. Brown is an excellent chain mover, no doubt. But Williams is becoming more of a potential problem imho. Like if Jaylen Waddle was a few inches taller. 

[stuvian]

We beat Kansas City and held Kelce to single digit yardage. I don't care how much we gave up on the ground 

[Kelly to Allen]

When we shut down the Rams and Lions run game will ppl still be skeptical?

[colin]

ive grown to accept our scheme will allow runs in the middle of the pitch.  the hill i will die on is that mcd/our dc's have choked in the playoffs.  being conservative to a fault and then panicking by being aggressive past the point of reason by making desperate measures (remember the hamlin fake punt?  i don't think that even worked in practice).

 

running what we run but making the adjustments and adding the wrinkles that mcd has done in the past at times is what he needs to do in the playoffs.  even if we are banged up again on d, making it hard and forcing a couple punts or turnovers is the minimum standard that i'll accept on the d no matter who it is facing.

 

if smoot, carter, and milano are 100% G2G and we aren't a mash unit anywhere else that will be my expectation.

[Shaw66]

On 12/3/2024 at 8:44 AM, Jistafan said:

We have historically been poor in stopping run. Curious what’s it gonna take for Bills to stop the run? Is it coaching scheme, not enough talent , probably both? Enlighten me oh wise ones…

I haven't read this thread, so I'm probably saying things others have said.  I'll respond anyway. 

 

I'll start with a question. What's it going to take for the Bills to stop punt returns?  The Bills are giving up 9.1 yards per return, which is right in the middle of the pack in the league.  Your answer probably is, well, middle of the pack isn't terrible, and why is it so important to get better at punt coverage?  The team is 10-2 and playing well. 

 

Well, the Bills are in the middle of the pack in yards given up rushing per game, and the answer is middle of the pack isn't terrible, and why is it so important to get better at rushing defense?  The team is 10-2 and playing well. 

 

So, the first point is that random stats often don't correlate with winning, so being troubled by random stats often is a fool's game.  In other words, the answer to your question is it doesn't really matter if the Bills improve their stats against the run. What matters is whether the Bills are winning, and they are. 

 

The second point, for which I don't have quality stats, is that not all rushing yards are made equal.  The Bills' defense is designed to stop scoring, not to stop the accumulation of yards. The Bills are 11th in the league in yardage defense and 6th in the league in scoring defense. They're 18th in rush yards per game, so yes, relatively speaking their rush yard defense isn't as good as it could be. But look at 4th down defense.  It's hard to know how many of those fourth down plays are running plays, but it's probably a reasonably high percentage. The Bills are fourth in the league on fourth down stops, so on the plays that really matter, the Bills' run defense appears to be pretty good.  

 

Red zone scoring? The Bills defense is tied for 8th in the league, which suggests the defense, and probably the rushing defense, is playing pretty well. 

 

Good stats aren't the objective. Winning is the objective, and the Bills are winning. In building a team, the question is how are we going to win?  The answer is by scoring more points than the other team.  The Bills are second in points per game scored, and they are sixth in points per game allowed. That's damn good. The Lions are way ahead of every team in point differential, and in second place the Bills are way ahead of every other team.

 

Sean McDermott very clearly understands how to win football games, and it's also very clear that he believes the way to win football games is to stop explosive plays and to stop scoring in the red zone. If he were to build a defense that was very good at stopping the run, he would have a defense that isn't so good at stopping scoring, and that's not how McDermott wins. 

 

So, how much do we really care that the Bills aren't leading the league in punt return defense or in rushing defense?

[DisplacedBillsFan]

On 12/3/2024 at 8:44 AM, Jistafan said:

We have historically been poor in stopping run. Curious what’s it gonna take for Bills to stop the run? Is it coaching scheme, not enough talent , probably both? Enlighten me oh wise ones…

We've allowed the 4th fewest points in the league this year, are middle of the pack on rush yards allowed, and are 6th best in opponent rushing TDs per game at 0.6. For comparison, Minnesota is first at 0.4 and Dallas is last at 1.8. We'll occasionally get gashed with a big run or even allow a RB to have a big day, but who cares, given the overall results. Start going all in on stopping the run, and other holes will quickly appear. 

[DrDawkinstein]

It's by design, and I'm not even mad about because it works and we keep winning.

 

The 9ers ran all over us... and scored 3 points off it. We let teams run all the time, and we're 10-2 and have a +131 point differential!

 

We're good.

[GoBills!]

The scheme comes down to do you want to run the ball only for Josh to light it up and have a shootout against a Top QB? So once we are ahead they have to abandon the run which is when they collapse. 
 

The scheme allows them to gain yards until about the 30 then we tighten up and force them to pass which was defend well against which forces them to run on 4th or FG.

[QLBillsFan]

On 12/3/2024 at 6:55 AM, GASabresIUFan said:

In the regular season and that's the issue.  How do we take the next step if good teams can run the ball down our throats in the playoffs and limit our possessions.  

Fair point but red zone D is solid and they are not giving up a lot of points. I assume they tweak it a bit if a team just pounds it. But I have confidence in half time adjustments like the Colts game. Is it potentially a problem? Sure, but each team has weaknesses. The Bills haven’t lost playoff games due to run game dominance as far as I recall. 

[GASabresIUFan]

4 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Fair point but red zone D is solid and they are not giving up a lot of points. I assume they tweak it a bit if a team just pounds it. But I have confidence in half time adjustments like the Colts game. Is it potentially a problem? Sure, but each team has weaknesses. The Bills haven’t lost playoff games due to run game dominance as far as I recall. 

Giving up 180 yards to  KC in 2021 and then 169 (with Mixon getting 103) certainly didn't help in 2022.

[QLBillsFan]

On 12/5/2024 at 1:37 PM, Beck Water said:

 

Agreed, but the Laws of Physics are still against them. 
 

 

They are elite players against the run. Primary by avoiding blocks at times but not always. While your concern is valid. A healthy  D with some tweaks should bend but not break. With the exception of the Colts game, those are the only two where the Bills were gashed for a half or more. McD is an excellent adjustment coach. 

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Giving up 180 yards to  KC in 2021 and then 169 (with Mixon getting 103) certainly didn't help in 2022.

Those are big numbers. I’ll concede those games you are correct. As I’ve said it’s a concern and every team has at least one. 

Edited December 7 by QLBillsFan