What’s it gonna take to improve /prioritize our run defense?

[GASabresIUFan]

As they said on the Sunday night broadcast, the Bills D is designed to force teams to run the ball between the 20s.  This bend and don't break philosophy is great in the regular season and works against 25+ NFL teams.  Where it consistently fails is against teams that have elite running games.  Henry and Barkley are often, but not always, this team's kryptonite.  

 

The question for the Bills is how to adjust the defense to limit those teams in the playoffs.  I'm not sure McD has ever found an adequate answer.

[Motorin']

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Better fundamentals, especially up front. Daquan Jones has struggled this year, Ed has been really inconsistent, their backup DTs are not really true run stuffers (by choice) and other than Groot our only defensive end who really specialises in playing the run is Duane Smoot who has been injured. 

 

That is the only route for the Bills. They need to play better up front because they don't and won't scheme to take the run away. That isn't how they believe in playing defense. They want you to run where your margin for error is smaller. 

 

 

I don't have the data to know for sure, but it looked to me that the run d in particular was much better when Smoot was playing.

 

Here's to him being healthy for the playoffs!

[mushypeaches]

Just read this statistic on Buffalo Rumblings

 

2024 EPA per rush = -0.12/play

2023 EPA per rush = -0.06/play

 

So we're actually doing better this year, and this supports the choices that McDermott and Babich are making in terms of scheme and personnel deployment

[BB2004]

1 hour ago, Jistafan said:

We have historically been poor in stopping run. Curious what’s it gonna take for Bills to stop the run? Is it coaching scheme, not enough talent , probably both? Enlighten me oh wise ones…

Bring back Ted Washington. 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Jistafan said:

We have historically been poor in stopping run. Curious what’s it gonna take for Bills to stop the run? Is it coaching scheme, not enough talent , probably both? Enlighten me oh wise ones…

The Bills are in nickel defense full time (except when they’re in dime) because they aren’t particularly interested in stopping the run.  They are about taking away explosive pass plays, while daring the opponent to waste time running the ball.  They know this will lead to them getting gashed at times, but they don’t care.  It’s just their philosophy and it’s been working pretty well.

[GASabresIUFan]

Just now, mannc said:

The Bills are in nickel defense full time (except when they’re in dime) because they aren’t particularly interested in stopping the run.  They are about taking away explosive pass plays, while daring the opponent to waste time running the ball.  They know this will lead to them getting gashed at times, but they don’t care.  It’s just their philosophy and it’s been working pretty well.

In the regular season and that's the issue.  How do we take the next step if good teams can run the ball down our throats in the playoffs and limit our possessions.  

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, Jistafan said:

We have historically been poor in stopping run. Curious what’s it gonna take for Bills to stop the run? Is it coaching scheme, not enough talent , probably both? Enlighten me oh wise ones…

 

How many points are we giving up? Not many since we lead the NFL in scoring defense. 

 

Joe Marino of the Locked on Bills podcast explains it this way. The Bills focus on not giving up the big pass play. The trade off is they give up run plays. But run plays are less dangerous than pass plays. So the Bills invite teams to run on them between the 20s because other than giving up fantasy points and run stats, it doesn't hurt you. Once you are in the red zone it gets a lot harder. 

 

So what you consider a problem is actually a strategy.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Score more points in the first half so teams need to abandon the run

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

How many points are we giving up? Not many since we lead the NFL in scoring defense. 

 

Joe Marino of the Locked on Bills podcast explains it this way. The Bills focus on not giving up the big pass play. The trade off is they give up run plays. But run plays are less dangerous than pass plays. So the Bills invite teams to run on them between the 20s because other than giving up fantasy points and run stats, it doesn't hurt you. Once you are in the red zone it gets a lot harder. 

 

So what you consider a problem is actually a strategy.

 

We are 6th in scoring defense. But point stands. 

[dave mcbride]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2024.htm#team_stats

 

The numbers in this link are pretty remarkable. They are terrible against the run and good vs the  pass in terms of yards per play surrendered, but they also rank 20th in plays per drive and 19th in yards per drive (meaning they're fairly bad on third down defense - ranked 20th). They are also 19th in the number of sacks made. Yet they are 6th in points allowed and 11th in yards allowed.

 

My takeaway? They are heavily reliant on preventing big plays that result in short scoring drives (in terms of the number of plays on the drive) and turnovers (they are second in the league in turnovers forced), and turnovers are more likely to happen on drives with a large number of plays -- the idea being that the offense will make a mistake sooner or later. They are 3rd in passing TDs given up and 6th in rushing TDs given up, which seems to confirm the philosophy. 

 

Will this approach work against the better teams in the postseason? I have no idea, but it hasn't really worked in the past. That said, I do think that they are better at getting after the passer than they were in, say, 2021 - despite the overall low numbers for sacks (2.4 per game).

 

Finally, they are 11th in opposing team passer rating: https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/opponent-average-team-passer-rating. Solid, but they've always been better than this in the Allen/McDermott era: 4th in 2019, 7th in 2020, 1st in 2021, 2nd in 2022, and 7th in 2023. Differential in team passer rating is the greatest statisical predictor of team success/failure in the NFL. 

 

Last thing to add -- the scoring numbers for the D really speak to the importance of complementary football. The offense is second in the league in terms of fewest turnovers given up, and they are first in fumbles lost (meaning the least). Opposing offenses therefore are gifted with hardly any short drives, and the Bills haven't allowed a defensive TD score all season.  

Edited December 3 by dave mcbride

[JP51]

47 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Philosophy is one key.

 

The Bills are ok with giving up some on the ground as long as everyone gets to where they should be and limits most plays. When they don't is where you see those long runs break out.

 

They don't want to give up the big play in the pass game. They go smaller/quicker instead of bringing in guys that are thumpers against the run. Last time we had a true thumper LB I believe was Brandon Spikes. 2 down guy that comes out on 3rd and medium/long. 

 

If you want to stop the run you have to commit to it, which means different players and mindset. Oddly enough, once a team gets to the 5 yard line and closer...it SEEMS (no stats to back me up) that the run defense does a great job a lot of the time. 

 

Now if we could just stop all those 3rd and longs it would get us off the field and help the run D out as well 

agree 100% with our offense they really are ok with score touchdowns give up field goals... to this point save 1 game where Baltimore just ran on us like we werent there its worked.  I think that once you get inside the 20 the field compresses and you no longer have to worry about getting beat deep... 

[BearNorth]

Haven't we stashed 6'2" Cine on the practice squad with the thought that he will add some body mass and become the hybrid "big Nickel". Former first rounder and national championship game MVP at Georgia.

Edited December 3 by BearNorth

[JerseyBills]

Mr Carter will help but as stated, it's our scheme, year after year though, they seem to adjust nicely if it becomes a factor in the game, whether it be bringing the S in the box or going big nickel. 

It seems the main goal is stopping the pass, which they're phenomenal at but that comes at the run D..

I think the stats are a bit skewed to , imo there have been many big runs against us but not much consistency,  besides Bal. 

[co_springs_billsfan]

56 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

A little off topic, but the comments that Andy Reid made after the bills game makes me think he is going to basically run the ball 40 times against us if we play them again.

Can you link it?  I'd be interested to read

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, JP51 said:

We could start by getting defensive tackles that can hold off OL from wrecking our LBs and safeties. I would say Oliver and Jones are not worth the price of admission on their contracts. However, we are not going to miraculously find to monster tackles that shoot gaps and blow up plays before the end of the season. So out side of going to a straight 4-3 and taking Taron Johnson off the field I dont know... more run blitzing... I think mostly you need to play to conditions... stack the box in cold nasty run game weather and force them to throw... or just roll with it and play the style we have been playing and hope Milano comes back strong as a run disruptor.  I do see replacing Jones with a monster tackle (either FA or Carter) in hopes of getting pressure off of Oliver and actually getting some production for him...  not sure they are looking to ditch his contract at this point. 

Oliver IMHO is worthless esp for what we are paying him.  He was problem #1 against the Ravens.  We need bigger DT's that can also push the pocket.

33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

As they said on the Sunday night broadcast, the Bills D is designed to force teams to run the ball between the 20s.  This bend and don't break philosophy is great in the regular season and works against 25+ NFL teams.  Where it consistently fails is against teams that have elite running games.  Henry and Barkley are often, but not always, this team's kryptonite.  

 

The question for the Bills is how to adjust the defense to limit those teams in the playoffs.  I'm not sure McD has ever found an adequate answer.

The problem is we will see those teams we have issues with in the playoffs.  I'm telling you, the Detroit game could get ugly

Edited December 3 by SoonerBillsFan

[mannc]

22 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

In the regular season and that's the issue.  How do we take the next step if good teams can run the ball down our throats in the playoffs and limit our possessions.  

Were our last three playoff losses due to our inability to stop the run?  I’d say they were caused by getting carved up by Mahomes and Burrow…

1 minute ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I'm telling you, the Detrpit game could get ugly

We are going to beat the Lions…

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

Were our last three playoff losses due to our inability to stop the run?  I’d say they were caused by getting carved up by Mahomes and Burrow…

We are going to beat the Lions…

We will see.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

There's multiple ways to shed and shoot - Adding 20 lbs of beef isn't going to make bernard a better run defender.  Playing closer to the LOS might, but then you're way more exposed to short passing and RPOs.  It's read and react, and we tend to improve on that as the game goes on.  

[SoMAn]

Ted Washington, Kyle Williams, Sam Adams, or reasonable facsimiles. Wide body run-stuffing athletic DT. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

9 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Oliver IMHO is worthless esp for what we are paying him.  He was problem #1 against the Ravens.  We need bigger DT's that can also push the pocket.

The problem is we will see those teams we have issues with in the playoffs.  I'm telling you, the Detroit game could get ugly

 

 

I disagree.  I'd say the #1 problem against the ravens was Williams, Spector, and lewis starting instead of milano, bernard, and johnson.  Rapp also played 16 snaps and was replaced by bishop.