Dawson Knox, Spencer Brown Cited by PFF

[GreggTX]

These 2 were given the highest grades for the Bills for their week 13 performances. I was very wrong about Brown. I thought he'd never amount to much and I'm very happy he's proven me wrong. Knox has made the temporary loss of Dalton Kincaid acceptable and appears to be due for more snaps. I look for Knox to be a big factor come playoff time. I also look forward to Brown receiving much more recognition. I guess Beane knew what he was doing when he extended him. Brandon Beane is my favorite Bill. He's had a few misses, but far more home runs -- even on day 3 of the draft he's coming up with gems. When people talk about all the talent on this team, they mistakenly leave his name out of the conversation. We just unloaded a bunch of talented players and we're better than ever. Just think about that. Who else could have pulled that off?

Edited December 3 by GreggTX

[Brand J]

Without having numbers to back it up, I’d venture that Beane has had far fewer misses on draft picks than almost all other GMs. Because of that, the Bills roster has depth and is solid across the board. Where he struggles is in identifying blue chip talent, though there’s largely luck involved, as the blue chippers (if correctly identified) would go much earlier than any Bills pick. 
 

Knox was a serviceable TE signed to a bad contract and then we traded up for Kincaid with the expectation he’d be a Laporta or Bowers for this offense. Didn’t love the move at the time. It’s still plenty early in Kincaid’s career, so hopefully it does happen at some point. The chemistry between he and Allen needs to become tighter. 

[Kelly to Allen]

Knox is better than Kelce 

 

[JerseyBills]

I didn't mind the Knox contract at the time,  I think A. Bills never anticipated being in striking distance of Kincaid,  getting Allen a new weapon and B. he has had nagging injuries 

 

The Brown contract was a steal and perfect timing, as he is now blossoming into an elite RT and Beane probably saved a few mil a year. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Knox still one of my favorite players. Really thought he could be Kittle type player. He's still very good. 

Beane took a chance that Brown would recover from surgery. With Dawkins still playing well and Brown playing elite football, Beane can use day 1 and 2 draft picks to address the DT and edge positions. They have solid depth on the OL. Probably can take a chance and wait until 2026 draft to get another OT to replace Dawkins. Though his replacement may already be on the team. 

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

Knox at his best is a ***** blast to watch.  I think he's got more in the future than he may get credit for - Kincaid's a fine receiver, but he's on the edge of his toughness as a TE.  If I want somebody to screw a defense up, I'm looking at Knox.  

[eball]

Knox is an overpaid backup Lee Smith wannabe…right @C.Biscuit97?

 

[GunnerBill]

What still interests me on Knox vs Kincaid is how differently they are used. When Knox is in they use him down the field. When Kincaid is in they use him around the line. It's stark. Knox's average yards per target before catch is 10.4; whereas Kincaid's is 4.3 There is obviously something they prefer in Knox's ability down the field and it helps our offense IMO to have a tight end they think can threaten deeper. It's a worry to me if they still have no confidence in Kincaid to do that. I thought Brady had figured it out a bit late last year, but nope, back to everything short and RAC chances in 2024. 

4 hours ago, Brand J said:

Without having numbers to back it up, I’d venture that Beane has had far fewer misses on draft picks than almost all other GMs.

 

The numbers back you up. 

[Big Turk]

Brown has turned into potentially the best Right Tackle in the NFL or at least top 5.

5 hours ago, Brand J said:

Without having numbers to back it up, I’d venture that Beane has had far fewer misses on draft picks than almost all other GMs. Because of that, the Bills roster has depth and is solid across the board. Where he struggles is in identifying blue chip talent, though there’s largely luck involved, as the blue chippers (if correctly identified) would go much earlier than any Bills pick. 
 

Knox was a serviceable TE signed to a bad contract and then we traded up for Kincaid with the expectation he’d be a Laporta or Bowers for this offense. Didn’t love the move at the time. It’s still plenty early in Kincaid’s career, so hopefully it does happen at some point. The chemistry between he and Allen needs to become tighter. 

 

Laporta has 31 catches for 391 yards this year. Has had one game with more than 4 catches and his season high for yards is 66.

 

Even with missing multiple games Kincaid has more catches with 34 and almost as many yards at 356.

 

For the most part TE usage is way down this year around the entire NFL.

Edited December 3 by Big Turk

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

What still interests me on Knox vs Kincaid is how differently they are used. When Knox is in they use him down the field. When Kincaid is in they use him around the line. It's stark. Knox's average yards per target before catch is 10.4; whereas Kincaid's is 4.3 There is obviously something they prefer in Knox's ability down the field and it helps our offense IMO to have a tight end they think can threaten deeper. It's a worry to me if they still have no confidence in Kincaid to do that. I thought Brady had figured it out a bit late last year, but nope, back to everything short and RAC chances in 2024. 

 

Something I've noticed is that when Allen throws the ball downfield to Kincaid the pass is often off target. Whereas his downfield throws to Knox are almost always are on target. To me that implies a possible issue with Kincaid being where he's supposed to be within the timing of the play. Because it doesn't make sense that Allen can hit those throws to one TE but not the other if it was just a QB issue. And like you said they are not using Kincaid downfield much to begin with so maybe there is something he isn't doing right. I don't know, it's hard to put my finger on the exact problem.

[BearNorth]

6 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Though his replacement may already be on the team. 

Alec Anderson sure looked solid in the snow vs. the 49ers, Dawkins has been so durable tho.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Something I've noticed is that when Allen throws the ball downfield to Kincaid the pass is often off target. Whereas his downfield throws to Knox are almost always are on target. To me that implies a possible issue with Kincaid being where he's supposed to be within the timing of the play. Because it doesn't make sense that Allen can hit those throws to one TE but not the other if it was just a QB issue. And like you said they are not using Kincaid downfield much to begin with so maybe there is something he isn't doing right. I don't know, it's hard to put my finger on the exact problem.

 

Yea. Something is not quite adding up. And while I have no doubt Josh's trust levels with Dawson are extremely high (give he is supposed to be his best friend on the team) it feels like more than just a chemistry thing. 

[dorquemada]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. Something is not quite adding up. And while I have no doubt Josh's trust levels with Dawson are extremely high (give he is supposed to be his best friend on the team) it feels like more than just a chemistry thing. 

 

Agreed, plus it seems like Knox has a nose for big plays.  It's a nice luxury, a guy that moves the sticks in Kincaid, and one that can make a big catch but never draws the type of coverage that Kincaid or the WRs do. 

[PoundingDog]

Two different players. Knox was primarily a blocker that developed in Buffalo to be a capable receiver. Remember he talked about the ping pong ball exercises and the concept of not getting open too soon in a play when he's not the primary target. Clearly he had to learn the art of passing game in NFL, and he's a better athlete than Kincaid overall. Because of his blocking skills, he's more likely to surprise defenses, drawing more favorably matchups, and having big plays downfield.

 

Kincaid is a glorified big receiver coming into NFL with natural smooth route running and great hands ability. He has to learn to be an effective blocker, not quite there yet. What I find disappointing is against zone, he's not that instinctive that I thought he is. Also he's older. I do have concerns about his ceiling now (two years into his career).

 

 

[Ralonzo]

42 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Alec Anderson sure looked solid in the snow vs. the 49ers, Dawkins has been so durable tho.

 

Anderson's distant future is at C, it's been his best position in my viewings. He's a hoss in there. He got abused at T by speed guys in his protection reps there.

 

Grable looked good at T in preseason, and honestly Van Demark is a better LT than RT but the game he played for Brown at RT he was still a plus. Beane/Kromer have a type of athlete they prefer at T, Brown and Grable and Van Demark are that. Dawkins is just Dawkins. Anderson I view strictly as IOL or jumbo TE similar to Edwards. 

[PoundingDog]

Dawkins is 30 now. Current contract runs out after 2027 plus 2 additional void years. Last year of the contract has a dead cap, if cut, is $4.4 million. Brown's contract runs out in 2028 when he's 30.

 

Normally I'd say Grable takes over Dawkins in 2027, but if he's really improving going forward and ready to take over, it might be a good, but not so good situation because I don't think they will just trade Dawkins to whoever offers the highest return. Not a Beane and McDermott thing to do to a guy like Dion. 

[MrEpsYtown]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. Something is not quite adding up. And while I have no doubt Josh's trust levels with Dawson are extremely high (give he is supposed to be his best friend on the team) it feels like more than just a chemistry thing. 

 

I haven't really looked too deeply into all this, but does it have anything to do with how Kincaid is being defended vs how Knox is? With all the option routes the team runs, it does make sense that teams might be taking away the deeper stuff on Kincaid and everything is turning into short routes. 

[gonzo1105]

37 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Anderson's distant future is at C, it's been his best position in my viewings. He's a hoss in there. He got abused at T by speed guys in his protection reps there.

 

Grable looked good at T in preseason, and honestly Van Demark is a better LT than RT but the game he played for Brown at RT he was still a plus. Beane/Kromer have a type of athlete they prefer at T, Brown and Grable and Van Demark are that. Dawkins is just Dawkins. Anderson I view strictly as IOL or jumbo TE similar to Edwards. 

Yea, I’m intrigued by the future Oline as well. I get what you’re saying with Anderson but his situation reminds me of Ryan Bates. A guy fans kept thinking was going to start and was kept in that depth role because of how versatile he is. I’m not sure he ever starts here and if he does it will probably be after Edwards moves on at LG. 
 

Beane has done a great job of spreading out the contracts to set us up for future success there. 
 

Dawkins and Torrence are under until 2027

Brown under until 2029

 

Edwards through 2025 

 

McGovern 2026

 

 

Then the backups Grable and Van Pran through 2028

 

RVD and Anderson are ERFA which means we’ll have them through 2026 most likely and this doesn’t include Gouriage who they clearly like to an extent 

[Logic]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Something I've noticed is that when Allen throws the ball downfield to Kincaid the pass is often off target. Whereas his downfield throws to Knox are almost always are on target. To me that implies a possible issue with Kincaid being where he's supposed to be within the timing of the play. Because it doesn't make sense that Allen can hit those throws to one TE but not the other if it was just a QB issue. And like you said they are not using Kincaid downfield much to begin with so maybe there is something he isn't doing right. I don't know, it's hard to put my finger on the exact problem.

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. Something is not quite adding up. And while I have no doubt Josh's trust levels with Dawson are extremely high (give he is supposed to be his best friend on the team) it feels like more than just a chemistry thing. 

While I, like you two, am unable to pinpoint exactly what the problem is, one thing seems clear to me: The offense looks more effective when Dawson Knox is TE1 than when Kincaid is TE1.

The two main areas in which Knox is currently superior to Kincaid -- blocking and downfield ability -- are two things that really help our offense as currently constructed. We have short area YAC guys already in Shakir, Samuel, and Cook. A big-bodied threat down the seam and a guy that helps more in the running game seems more valuable at this point in time than what Kincaid offers.

Here's hoping Brady figures out how to effectively deploy BOTH once Kincaid returns. But in the meantime, I'm fine with seeing more Knox and less Kincaid.

[GunnerBill]

51 minutes ago, Ralonzo said:

 

Anderson's distant future is at C, it's been his best position in my viewings. He's a hoss in there. He got abused at T by speed guys in his protection reps there.

 

Grable looked good at T in preseason, and honestly Van Demark is a better LT than RT but the game he played for Brown at RT he was still a plus. Beane/Kromer have a type of athlete they prefer at T, Brown and Grable and Van Demark are that. Dawkins is just Dawkins. Anderson I view strictly as IOL or jumbo TE similar to Edwards. 

 

Agree re their type at tackle. It's why I still wonder if after Edwards contract is up if they feel like Grable is ready to get on the field do you slide Dion in one? Let Grable play and show if he can be your tackle of the future but with Dion's experience next to him. I have never had any doubt Dion can play guard, he would be 32 by that point and they love his leadership. I know a lot has to happen there first but it is a possibility.