Ladd McConkey

[Magox]

Here are some stats that may surprise people.

 

Stefon Diggs played from the slot 60% of the time this year and nearly half the time as a Bills receiver in 2023.

 

Keenan Allen played from the slot nearly 60% of the time as a Charger from 2020-2023

 

Devante Adams played from the slot 40% of the time over past few years.

 

Godwin has played nearly 60% of his snaps from the slot over past few years.

 

Ceedee Lamb has played from the slot 54% of the time.
 

Nacua in 2023 played 56% of his snaps from the slot.

 

Mcconkey as a rookie has excelled and his slot percentage is 67%.

 

McConkey has demonstrated he can win both on the outside and the slot.  

Provided he can be a durable player, you’ll see in the coming years that he will be viewed as one of the elite who wins no matter where he is matched up and the contract he will be offered will reflect that.

[GunnerBill]

35 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Elite receivers who constantly win in the slot are valued by GM’s just about as much as guys who win on the boundaries.  That’s just a fact

 

I don't believe it is. They rarely get picked in the first round. They rarely get the mega deals. St Brown has. Kupp did. That's fair. They are the exceptions not the rules. That's like saying Q Nelson got nearly as much as the top tackle on the market when he signed his deal with the Colts therefore GMs value guards nearly as much as tackles. 

 

I don't think the facts support your position at all.

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

McConkey has demonstrated he can win both on the outside and the slot.  

 

This year he has not. 67% slot percentage is very high. As a comparison Shakir is 70.6% and everybody would agree he is a slot WR. It's certainly possible McConkey will prove he can win outside in the future. But all the scouting reports agreed that his skill set made it likely he would be pegged as a career slot WR and that's what he's been as a rookie.

 

Funny thing is we already had this conversation around Shakir. All offseason a lot of people on here were saying he could be an outside WR if given the opportunity. Instead he was immediately planted in the slot position to start the year and that's almost exclusively been his role. The Bills never gave even a bit of consideration to moving him. It takes a certain level of strength and physical ability to win outside. Shakir doesn't have that and I don't believe McConkey does either, but like I said it's still early so he could prove me wrong.

[Magox]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

It's not a pejorative, it's just a fact that some WRs are primarily slots. And your 2nd point isn't true. The market doesn't lie - out of the top 20 WRs in AAV only two (ARSB and Kupp) are primarily slots, ranking 4th and 10th respectively:

 

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver

 

So yes if you are truly the very best slot WR in the NFL you can get a top tier contract (although still short of the AAVs given to the very best outside WRs). But at every WR tier the outside WRs are very clearly valued more than their slot counterparts.

 

 

CeeDee Lamb plays more snaps from the slot than boundary and he is at the top, Kupp was at the top.   Keenan Allen who signed a $20m a year contract back in 2020 who plays alot more snaps from the slot than boundary was at that time a top 3 WR pay.   Chris Godwin who has had lots of injury issues and will be turning 29 is expected to get a $25m plus contract.

 

Puca Nacua who had his best year from the slot when it comes his time will get a mega top tier contract.   Devante Adams who plays lots of slot snaps was paid as a top WR.

 

This isn’t black or white, many of the receivers who are paid at the top plays lots of snaps from the slot.

 

McConkey has demonstrated both collegiately and in the pros that he can win both inside and out.   
 

Provided he stays healthy which I do have some concerns, he will be considered on par with guys like Amon ra st brown and prime Kupp, even though McConkey is much faster and explosive than those two.  It’s not even close.

[stinky finger]

13 hours ago, JerseyBills said:

He's excellent but Shakir has that role on this team. 

Better than Shakir? Ya okay. Shakir has the best catch % in the league 

I'd be happy with 2/3 of any combination. Each are very good. Ladd was who I wanted when we were on the clock. Josh would have loved Ladd. Keon will undoubtedly produce highly as well. I get why we selected Keon now that I see what's he's done. 

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, Magox said:

CeeDee Lamb plays more snaps from the slot than boundary

 

Where do you get your stats from on this? This is where I get mine:

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/ceedee-lamb/

 

2024 - 46.2%

2023 - 51.3%

2022 - 45.5%

 

16 minutes ago, Magox said:

Puca Nacua who had his best year from the slot when it comes his time will get a mega top tier contract.

 

This doesn't appear to be true? According to that same source he was 25.4% last year and 28.3% this year.

 

Anyways the point isn't about WRs who can play in the slot. The point is about WRs that can pretty much only play in the slot. Cole Beasley, Tyler Boyd, Christian Kirk. That's who we're talking about. WRs that can win outside can also win in the slot (which is why they will get moved around), but the opposite is not true. Again look at the top AAVs which I linked in a previous post - the top 20 is made up almost entirely of outside WRs. Some of them will be moved to the slot more than others but the point is they can win outside. They aren't spending 2/3 of their time or more in the slot. In fact now that I look at them even Kupp and ARSB are in the slot much less than I thought - 56.5% and 43.0% respectively this year.

 

Edited December 29, 2024 by HappyDays

[Magox]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Where do you get your stats from on this? This is where I get mine:

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/ceedee-lamb/

 

2024 - 46.2%

2023 - 51.3%

2022 - 45.5%

 

 

This doesn't appear to be true? According to that same source he was 25.4% last year and 28.3% this year.

 

Anyways the point isn't about WRs who can play in the slot. The point is about WRs that can pretty much only play in the slot. Cole Beasley, Tyler Boyd. That's who we're talking about. WRs can win outside can also win in the slot which is why they will get moved around, but the opposite is not true. Again look at the top AAVs which I linked in a previous post - the top 20 is made up almost entirely of outside WRs. Some of them will be moved to the slot more than others but the point is they can win outside. They aren't spending 2/3 of their time or more in the slot. In fact now that I look at them even Kupp and ARSB are in the slot much less than I thought - 56.5% and 43.0% respectively this year.

 

“Only four of those 15 showed up in the top 20 – CeeDee Lamb (53.8%), Jayden Reed (68.5%), Amon-Ra St. Brown (58.8%) and Christian Kirk (80.0%, most in the league).”

 

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/slot-vs-wide-2023-wide-receivers

 

You know what percentage of snaps he had in the slot CeeDee had as a rookie?

 

90%
 

 

https://www.rotowire.com/football/player/ceedee-lamb-14411

 

 

I do agree that at the heart of it all is if Ladd can win on the boundary as well and I think he will demonstrate that throughout his career provided he can stay healthy.

 

 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I think it’s pretty clear you are completely clueless.

Now you went and backed your opinion with facts, that kind of stuff won’t fly around here.  
 

Well done.

Ahh so clueless! The Chargers have the 22nd best pass offense, 12th in total points and 22nd in yards. With the Elite Slot Ladd!
 

And the Bills are the 9th best pass offense, 2nd in total points and 8th in yards. And they don’t have elite slot Ladd? How could it be?

41 minutes ago, Magox said:

Here are some stats that may surprise people.

 

Stefon Diggs played from the slot 60% of the time this year and nearly half the time as a Bills receiver in 2023.

 

Keenan Allen played from the slot nearly 60% of the time as a Charger from 2020-2023

 

Devante Adams played from the slot 40% of the time over past few years.

 

Godwin has played nearly 60% of his snaps from the slot over past few years.

 

Ceedee Lamb has played from the slot 54% of the time.
 

Nacua in 2023 played 56% of his snaps from the slot.

 

Mcconkey as a rookie has excelled and his slot percentage is 67%.

 

McConkey has demonstrated he can win both on the outside and the slot.  

Provided he can be a durable player, you’ll see in the coming years that he will be viewed as one of the elite who wins no matter where he is matched up and the contract he will be offered will reflect that.

Diggs/Allen were moved the slot because they were declining physical players.  
 

Because it’s an easier position to play.

 

Rookies see more time in the slot.

 

Because it’s an easier position to play.

 

They get paid less.

 

Because it’s an easier position to play.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Magox said:

“Only four of those 15 showed up in the top 20 – CeeDee Lamb (53.8%), Jayden Reed (68.5%), Amon-Ra St. Brown (58.8%) and Christian Kirk (80.0%, most in the league).”

 

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/slot-vs-wide-2023-wide-receivers

 

You know what percentage of snaps he had in the slot CeeDee had as a rookie?

 

90%
 

https://www.rotowire.com/football/player/ceedee-lamb-14411

 

I do agree that at the heart of it all is if Ladd can win on the boundary as well and I think he will demonstrate that throughout his career provided he can stay healthy.

 

 

 

If Ladd ends up moving outside the way CeeDee did and dominates the way CeeDee has then there is no doubt. At the moment he hasn't done that. He cna play outside in some packages, he can run crossers and in breakers and possibly some curl routes out there, fine. He gives you a bit more out there than say Khalil Shakir does - agreed. That doesn't make you a boundary receiver. He is a slot receiver who in certain 12, 13 or 22 personnel packages (and Roman runs plenty of those) can go and line up there. But if you tried to say "right okay we are gonna start Ladd McConkey as a primary boundary receiver and play him 65% out there his production would fall. There is no doubt in my mind. Because when you are out there 30 or 40 snaps a game eventually you better be able to get off press and threaten to win outside or else you just become too easy to defend for corners.

[OldTimer1960]

37 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't believe it is. They rarely get picked in the first round. They rarely get the mega deals. St Brown has. Kupp did. That's fair. They are the exceptions not the rules. That's like saying Q Nelson got nearly as much as the top tackle on the market when he signed his deal with the Colts therefore GMs value guards nearly as much as tackles. 

 

I don't think the facts support your position at all.

Switching up and I know this season is still going, but Bills are likely in the market for a boundary WR as re-signing Cooper will cost a ton.  Early reading suggests this is not a strong draft class for WR.  Gunner, do you see any prospects worth a first or 2nd pick (in range for Bills late in each round)?

[Doc]

Again the Bills had the slot covered with Shakir and Samuel, who was signed before the draft.  They needed an outside WR.  If they had drafted Ladd, he would have just taken targets away from Shakir left them with a bad at outside WR.  The juice wasn't worth the squeeze.

 

As for BTJr., sure that might have truly been the one who got away, but there were many who felt he was a boom or bust prospect and basically a straight-line runner.  The Bills would have had to give up a 3rd rounder at least to get him, assuming there were any trade partners and that was a lot for, again, a boom or bust player.

[wjag]

One of the steals of the draft.

[HappyDays]

23 minutes ago, Magox said:

You know what percentage of snaps he had in the slot CeeDee had as a rookie?

 

90%

 

In Lamb's rookie year Dallas already had established outside WRs in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup who had each gotten 1,100 receiving yards the year before. So putting Lamb in the slot as a rookie was the best way to get him on the field. But trust me if they had Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer out there instead, Lamb would have been placed outside right away. Dallas had the luxury of getting him acclimated to the NFL at the easier position on the field. LA doesn't have that luxury. They are placing McConkey in the slot because that's where his skill set fits. You can go back and read all the scouting reports. Lamb was known to be a prospect that could play outside, McConkey was thought to be a prospect that would be relegated to a slot role. His role this year in a bad WR room cements that profile.

 

If you want to defend the unlikely prediction that he will turn out to be more than just a slot WR, I respect that, but nothing he's done so far is making the case for you. It's all projection at this point.

 

Edited December 29, 2024 by HappyDays

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Switching up and I know this season is still going, but Bills are likely in the market for a boundary WR as re-signing Cooper will cost a ton.  Early reading suggests this is not a strong draft class for WR.  Gunner, do you see any prospects worth a first or 2nd pick (in range for Bills late in each round)?

 

Have only just started to be honest. Literally this morning did a couple of hours on corners. So bit early to start committing on receivers. 

 

My view from watching college ball is I agree not as strong a class as last year. Maybe a couple of high end guys compared to 2023 (the Addison, Johnston, JSN year) but then possibly not the depth in those first couple of rounds. 

[gonzo1105]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

In Lamb's rookie year Dallas already had established outside WRs in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup who had each gotten 1,100 receiving yards the year before. So putting Lamb in the slot as a rookie was the best way to get him on the field. But trust me if they had Quentin Johnson and Josh Palmer out there instead, Lamb would have been placed outside right away. Dallas had the luxury of getting him acclimated to the NFL at the easier position on the field. LA doesn't have that luxury. They are placing McConkey in the slot because that's where his skill set fits. You can go back and read all the scouting reports. Lamb was known to be a prospect that could play outside, McConkey was thought to be a prospect that would be relegated to a slot role. His role this year in a bad WR room cements that profile.

 

If you want to defend the unlikely prediction that he will turn out to be more than just a slot WR, I respect that, but nothing he's done so far is making the case for you. It's all projection at this point.

 

The really simple question is knowing what you know now, would you rather have Keon Coleman or Ladd McConkey? Its that simple. Only a fool right now would take Coleman over McConkey looking back on it?

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

 

The really simple question is knowing what you know now, would you rather have Keon Coleman or Ladd McConkey? Its that simple. Only a fool right now would take Coleman over McConkey looking back on it?

 

Then I guess I'm a fool 😁

 

Like I said before it's way too early to make judgments. I could have told you in April that McConkey would have a better rookie season than Coleman. Even as one of the biggest advocates for Coleman in the offseason I knew his rookie year wouldn't be pretty. Still today I would easily take the higher ceiling playing outside over the higher floor playing in the slot, especially since Coleman has if anything performed slightly better than I anticipated.

 

Somewhat off topic but over the past few weeks I've come off the fence about extending Shakir - I'm now firmly in the camp of not wanting to extend him. I just feel the money he will get can be spent on more difficult to fill positions. So if it were up to me I would draft another slot WR next year in anticipation of Shakir leaving in 2026, but still not in the 1st round. Round 3 and beyond is perfect for that skill set.

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

Then I guess I'm a fool 😁

 

Like I said before it's way too early to make judgments. I could have told you in April that McConkey would have a better rookie season than Coleman. Even as one of the biggest advocates for Coleman in the offseason I knew his rookie year wouldn't be pretty. Still today I would easily take the higher ceiling playing outside over the higher floor playing in the slot, especially since Coleman has if anything performed slightly better than I anticipated.

 

Somewhat off topic but over the past few weeks I've come off the fence about extending Shakir - I'm now firmly in the camp of not wanting to extend him. I just feel the money he will get can be spent on more difficult to fill positions. So if it were up to me I would draft another slot WR next year in anticipation of Shakir leaving in 2026, but still not in the 1st round. Round 3 and beyond is perfect for that skill set.

I too also voted for Ladd to have the best rookie season production-wise.

 

He was stepping into a team without any receivers at all with a known good QB and good coach. It wasn’t much of a stretch. 
 

But the difference between production like his as a rookie and Chase’s as a rookie is still really stark. Because one of them is a boundary guy and one of them is a slot guy.

 

Also, not extending Shakir is a no-brainer. Paying him $20M+ AAV when CB1’s making less like Humphrey can erase him is a total mistake.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't believe it is. They rarely get picked in the first round. They rarely get the mega deals. St Brown has. Kupp did. That's fair. They are the exceptions not the rules. That's like saying Q Nelson got nearly as much as the top tackle on the market when he signed his deal with the Colts therefore GMs value guards nearly as much as tackles. 

 

I don't think the facts support your position at all.

Amon Ra, Tyreek, Waddle, CeeDee, Godwin, Kupp, Puka… At least half of the elite WRs in the league play majority slot.

[Bookie Man]

Was a big Ladd fan in the draft. He was the guy I was saying I wanted, once I figured that Brian Thomas wouldn't be there. Keon wasn't even on my radar. Now I'm liking Keon and think he's going to be a good one, just to be clear. I never thought Ladd to be primarily a slot receiver. His measurables and combine numbers were almost identical to Garrett Wilson. The dude catches pretty much everything and runs some of the cleanest routes. 

[gonzo1105]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Then I guess I'm a fool 😁

 

Like I said before it's way too early to make judgments. I could have told you in April that McConkey would have a better rookie season than Coleman. Even as one of the biggest advocates for Coleman in the offseason I knew his rookie year wouldn't be pretty. Still today I would easily take the higher ceiling playing outside over the higher floor playing in the slot, especially since Coleman has if anything performed slightly better than I anticipated.

 

Somewhat off topic but over the past few weeks I've come off the fence about extending Shakir - I'm now firmly in the camp of not wanting to extend him. I just feel the money he will get can be spent on more difficult to fill positions. So if it were up to me I would draft another slot WR next year in anticipation of Shakir leaving in 2026, but still not in the 1st round. Round 3 and beyond is perfect for that skill set.

 

We can talk upside all we want, I totally get the upside argument but what more do you want from McConkey to show upside. He's literally 10th in the entire NFL in Receiving yardage, 8th for WR's and he also missed a game this season. Even if he had just 50 yards in the game he missed he'd be like 6th in the NFL in Receiving yardage. He's also tied for 14th in TD's and 15th in receptions.

 

I'd kill for those numbers from Coleman in year 3 let alone his rookie season. The idea that McConkey is a finished product as a lot of people have said on this board is also asinine to me.

 

As for the Shakir re-signing discussion, I would re-sign him solely because you are relying on a bunch of other guys to take big leaps. Cooper even if he is back will be on a shorter term deal which I don't think they are going to do unless the price is very right, Hollins will be no more than what he is now, Samuel is at most going to be an average player even if he gets healthy and Coleman may or may not be the guy in the future. I just can't bank on that Wide Receiving core without Shakir who has been the most reliable open WR this year for Allen. We can draft another guy or two in the next draft or two and hope they work out but I think Allen has a big time trust in him and would want Shakir back. The price obviously has to be right but I would get him back aboard especially if we are going to let guys like Cook and Johnson go in the near future which I'm not sure they would do.