Ladd McConkey

[Magox]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

888 of his 1149 yards this year came inside vs slot corners, safeties or linebackers. Of those a staggering 451 yards came on 28 receptions from 31 targets when matched up on a linebacker. Ever likely his man coverage win % is so high. He is running routes against linebackers. It's a mismatch. 

 

Ladd can play on the boundary. He isn't Khalil Shakir who can't. He just isn't special on the boundary. He played 30% out there (and had about 23% of his production out there). The place where he is special is in the slot where you can use him as a mismatch piece against safeties, nickels and linebackers. 

 

I am not a hater on Ladd McConkey. I had a solid grade on him, I was definitely higher on him than I was on Keon Coleman put it that way. But anyone who thinks the Bills drafting him would have solved their boundary receiver issue is barking so far up the wrong tree they might as well be a cat.

He’s not a “prototypical” boundary receiver, yet he has the speed, the entire route tree, the quickness/explosion, nuanced route running and hands to win against pretty much whoever is put in front of him.   It’s not as if he hadn’t played the position in a meaningful way, he did it throughout his college years.

 

I pointed out earlier, the senior bowl.  I love watching Senior bowl practice highlights, for me it’s a great way to showcase abilities for GM’s in a very competitive setting against relatively top tier talent.

 

Thats when I began to have my man crush for Ladd and posted incessantly about him last year.  He was the star receiver in the camp, the video footage of him was ridiculously dominant.   He showed cased his speed, his route running, how he setup DB’s and none of them could come close to covering him in the 1 v 1 portions of practice.   He was leaving jockstraps all over the field.  I knew at that time that he was going to be a stud.

 

The better question isn’t whether what Buffalo ideally would want, it’s who was available that could have been had.   Yes, you could make the argument that the Bills should have traded up for BTJ, and I was huge booster of his as well, but when that didn’t happen, the Bills had a choice on who to select.  It’s pretty clear to me that they rated McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and a few others roughly about the same.    
 

I understand the thinking of why they went with Coleman, but I’m a proponent that there should be a heavier weighting on quality over need.  Not to say that need isn’t a big consideration when making a draft selection just that quality of player should be weighted accordingly.

 

And when the Bills had their selection come up they made the calculation that having a traditional get up and get the ball sort of guy outweighed a guy like McConkey who could have been your Swiss Army knife receiver who could line up effectively at any of the receiver spots.

 

I know this sounds like a 20/20 sort of post and I guess it sort of is, I like Coleman and think it’s unfortunate that his injury derailed the rest of his season which was beginning to shape up nicely.   And with the way Buffalo likes to run their running schemes he fits in more so than other receivers such as Worthy or McConkey.   I just bring bring up McConkey because I did post a lot about him pre draft much more so than most and I always refuted the idea that he was just a “slot” guy.   

Edited February 13 by Magox

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, Magox said:

He’s not a “prototypical” boundary receiver, yet he has the speed, the entire route tree, the quickness/explosion, nuanced route running and hands to win against pretty much whoever is put in front of him.   It’s not as if he hadn’t played the position in a meaningful way, he did it throughout his college years.

 

I pointed out earlier, the senior bowl.  I love watching Senior bowl practice highlights, for me it’s a great way to showcase abilities for GM’s in a very competitive setting against relatively top tier talent.

 

Thats when I began to have my man crush for Ladd and posted incessantly about him last year.  He was the star receiver in the camp, the video footage of him was ridiculously dominant.   He showed cased his speed, his route running, how he setup DB’s and none of them could come close to covering him in the 1 v 1 portions of practice.   He was leaving jockstraps all over the field.  I knew at that time that he was going to be a stud.

 

The better question isn’t whether what Buffalo ideally would want, it’s who was available that could have been had.   Yes, you could make the argument that the Bills should have traded up for BTJ, and I was huge booster of his as well, but when that didn’t happen, the Bills had a choice on who to select.  It’s pretty clear to me that they rated McConkey, Worthy, Coleman and a few others roughly about the same.    
 

I understand the thinking of why they went with Coleman, but I’m a proponent that there should be a heavier weighting on quality over need.  Not to say that need isn’t a big consideration when making a draft selection just that quality of player should be weighted accordingly.

 

And when the Bills had their selection came up they made the calculation that having a traditional get up and get the ball sort of guy outweighed a guy like McConkey who could have been your Swiss Army knife receiver who could line up effectively at any of the receiver spots.

 

I know this sounds like a 20/20 sort of post and I guess it sort of is, I like Coleman and think it’s unfortunate that his injury derailed the rest of his season which was beginning to shape up nicely.   And with the way likes to run their running schemes he fits in more so than other receivers such as Worthy or McConkey.   I just bring bring up McConkey because I did post a lot about him pre draft much more so than most and I always refuted the idea that he was just a “slot” guy.   

 

I mean I didn't like Coleman as an idea for the Bills because I think, like McConkey, his best fit in the NFL is as a slot receiver (different type of slot receiver but a slot receiver all the same). 

 

I understand the "they should just have drafted Ladd because he was better than the alternatives" argument but I'd only apply that rationale to premium positions personally. And to be a premium position player he'd need to be an outside receiver. And he isn't. He is a slot guy who can play some snaps for you outside. The fact that the Chargers, with the worst outside receiver situation in the entire league, kept Ladd primarily in the slot tells you all you need to know. And they used him less outside as the year went on. He had 4 targets lined up outside in the playoff game. That was only the second time he had more than 2 targets outside since week 8 (he had 0 or 1 six times from week 9 onward) and he still did most of his damage inside (149 of his 197 yards were v safeties, linebackers or the nickel). 

 

The Bills had backed themselves into a corner by that point because their only proven hold over was Shakir, who is a strict slot only, and their big FA acquisition was a guy in Samuel, who usage wise is very similar to Ladd - you can use him outside some but his best work is going to come in the slot. At that point the only guy on the roster who could play outside receiver on anything approaching a regular basis was Mack Hollins. What they got wrong was Keon's ability to do that (I think they got the Keon evaluation wrong generally tbh). But I don't regret them passing on McConkey. There were a ton of teams where he made sense - the Bills were not one of them.

[Spiderweb]

On 12/1/2024 at 5:04 PM, HansLanda said:

see: Khalil Shakir. I get it with the production as a rookie, but let's just see how Keon plays out as that is the next natural question. 

Ladd should have been the pick. Worthy maybe as well had Ladd not been there, but Coleman, with known separation issues? Separation is the number trait to look for in a receiver. That's what made Diggs a good WR to trade for.

[Brand J]

4 hours ago, oldmanfan said:

The only true bust I’ve seen is Elam.

As far as the first round, I’d agree. In the second we have Cody Ford and Boogie Basham. What makes the Ford pick even more heinous is there were rumors the Bills were trying to get back into the first round for him. They tried trading up repeatedly in the 2nd and were sweating bullets, hoping they could get him. All the while DK Metcalf and AJ Brown just go floating by (and we had a need at WR). I always think how differently that draft would’ve played out if the Panthers selected Ford (like they believed) rather than Greg Little.

Edited February 13 by Brand J

[alg]

2 hours ago, Brand J said:

As far as the first round, I’d agree. In the second we have Cody Ford and Boogie Basham. What makes the Ford pick even more heinous is there were rumors the Bills were trying to get back into the first round for him. They tried trading up repeatedly in the 2nd and were sweating bullets, hoping they could get him. All the while DK Metcalf and AJ Brown just go floating by (and we had a need at WR). I always think how differently that draft would’ve played out if the Panthers selected Ford (like they believed) rather than Greg Little.

That we needed a WR, and Beane still traded extra for Ford had me questioning his drafting skill. 

And we were chasing OL after he traded Teller, a future all pro, to Cleveland for snacks.

[No_Matter_What]

18 hours ago, st pete gogolak said:

I’ve been saying, with 20/20 hindsight, we should have moved up to grab BTJ before JAX picked him.  Then I went back and looked at first round selections.  Go ahead and tell me who would dealt with us. Rams? They picked Verse. Eagles? They picked Mitchell. Steelers? Maybe.  Looking at it again, we probably would have had to offer a significant overpay (#1 plus 2025 #1?) to move up enough to grab him.  

Agreed. I wrote this couple of times. We have no idea if there was realistic chance to trade up. I'd say it wasn't.

[Buffalo716]

10 hours ago, BigDingus said:

 

Maybe they should.

 

Given how many college players there are, there's no chance these guys can watch tape & give full evaluations on everyone. And even though people would say it doesn't happen, I think some scouts definitely rely on media & "expert" discussions to influence their player grades.

 

I don't think the Bills are like that, though. They take a lot of guys that don't seem to be on people's radar in the later rounds of the draft.

That's why it's a four-year process.. the bills have scouts who watch non draft eligible underclassmen... And by the time they're upperclassmen... That weeds out thousands of guys not fit for the NFL 

 

They literally go to spring games and summer practices.. they get to talk to coaches about players work ethics and habits... Then they go to three games a week during the season 

 

Some college teams have one NFL player potentially on their roster.. you don't need to spend two weeks at that schools practices... 

 

You spend more time where there is more talent... And when you're around them.. it's easier to spot an NFL talent because it's like 2% of the best FBS talent 

 

But the blesto scouts doing the non draft eligible players, give massive reports to the area scouts when they become upperclassmen... That has the schools, players, heights and weights, grades etc... a list of the best players who already broke out

 

Which makes it easier for the area scouts to focus on what they want to

 

The bills have no problem finding FCS players like taron Johnson and Christian Benford because our scouts go to every nook

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

3 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Agreed. I wrote this couple of times. We have no idea if there was realistic chance to trade up. I'd say it wasn't.

It’s something we will never know the answer too… but I suspect that people will be crying over BTJ for years to come …

 

 

 

 

Edited February 13 by Aussie Joe

[Don Otreply]

Does Ladd have a sister, and is her name Lass? 
 

that’s what’s is the question no one has asked…, 

[3rdand12]

21 hours ago, Magox said:

Yes, the Bills could have had him.  The thinking by many was that he was wasn’t a true boundary receiver that was better suited for the slot and since we already have Shakir it didn’t make sense to get another slot guy.

 

Where those people got it wrong was that he was a better receiver than any other by the time the Bills traded away their pick and that Ladd could play any receiver spot and thrive.   He was a boundary receiver in college, he was uncoverable  1 v 1.

 

Doesn’t matter now, I like Keon and he was trending nicely until his injury.  Hope he works hard this off season and gets in lots of time with Josh so that they can build some chemistry.

Coleman is our guy now. Agreed

[3rdand12]

11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Go back and find the people begging to trade up for Brian Thomas Jr. once he fell past 16.  I kept waiting for a trade to pop up on ESPN's bottom line.  Oh well, I guess if Coleman works out it will be a pleasant surprise.

I was also waiting for the trade. And then do some more wheeling and dealing to get a pure speed rec later to compliment. Coleman came out of the blue ,  for me at least. Hoping he gets back on track this season

7 hours ago, Brand J said:

As far as the first round, I’d agree. In the second we have Cody Ford and Boogie Basham. What makes the Ford pick even more heinous is there were rumors the Bills were trying to get back into the first round for him. They tried trading up repeatedly in the 2nd and were sweating bullets, hoping they could get him. All the while DK Metcalf and AJ Brown just go floating by (and we had a need at WR). I always think how differently that draft would’ve played out if the Panthers selected Ford (like they believed) rather than Greg Little.

ouch

[Billl]

14 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

888 of his 1149 yards this year came inside vs slot corners, safeties or linebackers. Of those a staggering 451 yards came on 28 receptions from 31 targets when matched up on a linebacker. Ever likely his man coverage win % is so high. He is running routes against linebackers. It's a mismatch. 

 

Ladd can play on the boundary. He isn't Khalil Shakir who can't. He just isn't special on the boundary. He played 30% out there (and had about 23% of his production out there). The place where he is special is in the slot where you can use him as a mismatch piece against safeties, nickels and linebackers. 

 

I am not a hater on Ladd McConkey. I had a solid grade on him, I was definitely higher on him than I was on Keon Coleman put it that way. But anyone who thinks the Bills drafting him would have solved their boundary receiver issue is barking so far up the wrong tree they might as well be a cat.

Why do you care so much about where a player lines up?  McConkey is a stud, full stop.  As much as I respect your evaluations, you can’t see the forest through the trees when it comes to evaluating WRs and CBs because you haven’t caught up to where the league has gone.  The best WRs play the slot.  The best CBs play boundary but can also play slot, support in run defense, and can rush when needed.

 

Ladd McConkey would have made 32 teams better.  Khalil Shakir should not be influencing draft strategy. 

[NoSaint]

On 12/29/2024 at 9:10 AM, Magox said:

 

 

CeeDee Lamb plays more snaps from the slot than boundary and he is at the top, Kupp was at the top.   Keenan Allen who signed a $20m a year contract back in 2020 who plays alot more snaps from the slot than boundary was at that time a top 3 WR pay.   Chris Godwin who has had lots of injury issues and will be turning 29 is expected to get a $25m plus contract.

 

Puca Nacua who had his best year from the slot when it comes his time will get a mega top tier contract.   Devante Adams who plays lots of slot snaps was paid as a top WR.

 

This isn’t black or white, many of the receivers who are paid at the top plays lots of snaps from the slot.

 

McConkey has demonstrated both collegiately and in the pros that he can win both inside and out.   
 

Provided he stays healthy which I do have some concerns, he will be considered on par with guys like Amon ra st brown and prime Kupp, even though McConkey is much faster and explosive than those two.  It’s not even close.

no one in the world considers ceedee as a slot receiver so much as an explosive receiver that can be moved anywhere in an effort to create advantageous matchups. 
 

put another way, he can do everything, while mcconkey or Shakir would struggle if pushed outside primarily. 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Billl said:

Why do you care so much about where a player lines up?  McConkey is a stud, full stop.  As much as I respect your evaluations, you can’t see the forest through the trees when it comes to evaluating WRs and CBs because you haven’t caught up to where the league has gone.  The best WRs play the slot.  The best CBs play boundary but can also play slot, support in run defense, and can rush when needed.

 

Ladd McConkey would have made 32 teams better.  Khalil Shakir should not be influencing draft strategy. 

 

Because I disagree with you. Inside in the NFL you can still influence with scheme. You can get Ladd McConkey 400 odd yards by matching him up on linebackers. You can shield a guard by using your centre to double guys. The reason there is and will always be a higher tarrif on people who play the outside positions in the NFL is because the extent to which you can influence those spots with scheme is more limited. There are points, normally high leverage ones too, in every game where your offensive tackles, edge rushers, boundary corners and outside receivers will be 1 on 1 and will just have to win that matchup. And that is why the value on those spots is and alwats will be higher.

 

Agree McConkey is a stud. And I also agree Khalil Shakir shouldn't be influencing draft strategy. That wasn't my point in terms of the corner the Bills painted themselves into. It wasn't the existence of the slot guys they had that painted them into that corner. It was the non-existence of any viable outside players. And it led multiple times this season to problems in big spots, even after trading away a 3rd round pick. In week 4 a Ravens defender said publicly that their strategy was just stack the middle of the field because the Bills were no threat outside. 

Edited February 14 by GunnerBill

[Chaos]

Between Coleman and McConkey and Worthy it is clear we should have taken Cooper Dejean

[The Jokeman]

8 hours ago, Billl said:

Why do you care so much about where a player lines up?  McConkey is a stud, full stop.  As much as I respect your evaluations, you can’t see the forest through the trees when it comes to evaluating WRs and CBs because you haven’t caught up to where the league has gone.  The best WRs play the slot.  The best CBs play boundary but can also play slot, support in run defense, and can rush when needed.

 

Ladd McConkey would have made 32 teams better.  Khalil Shakir should not be influencing draft strategy. 

The point is you can't fit a square peg in a round hole. McConkey wouldn't fix our hole at outside WR or perform as well as he did with as he did in LA if we ended playing him on the outside full time. 

[JoshAllin]

22 hours ago, Spiderweb said:

Ladd should have been the pick. Worthy maybe as well had Ladd not been there, but Coleman, with known separation issues? Separation is the number trait to look for in a receiver. That's what made Diggs a good WR to trade for.

Is separation really the best trait to look for in an outside receiver? Looked at the stats on https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/stats/receiving#average-separation and some of the top receivers are on the bottom of that list, AJ Brown, MJH, Cooks, PIckens

Edited February 14 by JoshAllin

[colin]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

Between Coleman and McConkey and Worthy it is clear we should have taken Cooper Dejean

 

I think a big element that leads our FO to overfitting positions, and possibly their concept of "scheme fit", on high draft picks is how in love they are with particular players we have on the team.

 

cooper was mostly profiled as an ideal fit at nickel back.  mcd and beane are in mad love with taron johnson, and they seem quite happy to be barely 1 deep at the position (lewis seems to well in dime but has been a disaster at nickel).  I think the same applies for shakir -- i think they love him so much they didn't want to draft ladd at essentially the same position.  both ladd and dejean are better than johson and shakir right now.

 

also, it tells me that outside or RB and TE, slot wr is very replaceable in the nfl and shakir shouldn't get a big contract

[Billl]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Because I disagree with you. Inside in the NFL you can still influence with scheme. You can get Ladd McConkey 400 odd yards by matching him up on linebackers. You can shield a guard by using your centre to double guys. The reason there is and will always be a higher tarrif on people who play the outside positions in the NFL is because the extent to which you can influence those spots with scheme is more limited. There are points, normally high leverage ones too, in every game where your offensive tackles, edge rushers, boundary corners and outside receivers will be 1 on 1 and will just have to win that matchup. And that is why the value on those spots is and alwats will be higher.

 

Agree McConkey is a stud. And I also agree Khalil Shakir shouldn't be influencing draft strategy. That wasn't my point in terms of the corner the Bills painted themselves into. It wasn't the existence of the slot guys they had that painted them into that corner. It was the non-existence of any viable outside players. And it led multiple times this season to problems in big spots, even after trading away a 3rd round pick. In week 4 a Ravens defender said publicly that their strategy was just stack the middle of the field because the Bills were no threat outside. 

I agree with your point about being able to influence matchups more easily out of the slot, but that can’t be dispositive in terms of whether or not you draft a blue chip player.  I’ve seen this used to explain away why they didn’t draft McConkey or Xavier Worthy, but if you’re passing on guys who played a combined 36 games and put up 2400 yards and 20 TDs as rookies because they “don’t fit”, then something is fundamentally broken.  This is especially true given that they drafted Coleman instead who is arguably a better fit in the slot but they’re trying to convert to an outside receiver anyway.

[colin]

17 minutes ago, Billl said:

I agree with your point about being able to influence matchups more easily out of the slot, but that can’t be dispositive in terms of whether or not you draft a blue chip player.  I’ve seen this used to explain away why they didn’t draft McConkey or Xavier Worthy, but if you’re passing on guys who played a combined 36 games and put up 2400 yards and 20 TDs as rookies because they “don’t fit”, then something is fundamentally broken.  This is especially true given that they drafted Coleman instead who is arguably a better fit in the slot but they’re trying to convert to an outside receiver anyway.

 

at this point i'm convinced they have their guys, and not their guys.