What the Hell is Happening in Syria?

[Coffeesforclosers]

Looks like the rebel faction HTS (a mishmash of anti Assad rebels and Islamists with loose Turkish backing?) is carving through Assad regime forces and their Russian mercenary backers.

 

They kicked off an offensive earlier this week. It came out of nowhere, and now the web is full of videos of them looting captured Assad regime arsenals, driving captures Russian armored vehicles, and strolling through the streets of Aleppo.

 

Aleppo was taken by Assad eightish years ago and was a symbol of his "inevitable victory".

 

My guess is Turkey unleashed its pet militants to remind Putin that Turkey is the regional hegemon and Should Be Taken Seriously. Putin shot down Erdogan's peace plan in Ukraine, so it makes sense that Turkey would take advantage of Russian weakness now that Russia refused Turkish help. Especially now that Israel gutted Hezbollah and has Iran wimpering in a corner.

[B-Man]

 

 

 

[Coffeesforclosers]

Ok, so Turkey decided now was the time to take a Russian/Iranian proxy off the board.

[Coffeesforclosers]

Alright.

 

In a nutshell, and if various OSINTs and other news sources are correct:

 

1. Aleppo, Homs and Homma have fallen or are falling. Those are all top-5 urban centers in Syria.

 

2. Assad and his family and allies have skedaddled to Moscow, Europe and the UAE. 

 

3. There is currently a coup in progress, being led by Assad army diehards to seize what's left of the government and form some kind of defense of the Alawite heartland.

 

4. Assad Army loyalists burned at least one government Arsenal to keep it out of HTS hands.

 

5. Iranian and Russian forces are evacuating their positions, regardless of their proximity to HTS and the various rebel factions. They are not offering any meaningful resistance to the rebels so far either.

 

6. All Anti-Assad forces, whether they're rebels, moderates, Islamists, Kurds, US-backed, or Turkey-backed, have gone over to the offensive, Tet-style.

 

7. There has been no movement of Russian or Iranian forces into Syria to try and save the Assad regime +yet+.

 

Edited November 30 by Coffeesforclosers

[BillsFanNC]

 

[B-Man]

 

 

HMM: 

Russia is evacuating naval assets from its base in Tartus, Syria, which may suggest that Russia does not intend

to send significant reinforcements to support Syrian President Bashar al Assad’s regime in the near term.

 

OSINT analyst MT Anderson reported on December 2 that satellite imagery from November 30 and December 1 showed that the Russian Admiral Gorshkov and Admiral Golovko Gorskhov-class frigates, the Admiral Grigorovich Grigorovich-class frigate, the Novorossiysk Kilo-class submarine, the Yelnya Altay-class oiler, and the Vyazma Kaliningradneft-class oiler were at the Russian base in Tartus. Anderson then reported that satellite imagery from December 3 showed that Russia removed the three frigates, the submarine, and two unnamed auxiliary vessels (likely the Yelnya and Vyazma) from the base — amounting to all of the vessels that Russia had stationed at Tartus. Russia cannot redeploy these vessels to its Black Sea ports because Turkey is enforcing the Montreux Convention, which prevents Russian warships from passing through the Turkish Straits.

 

Russia will likely therefore redeploy the vessels to its bases in northwestern Russia and Kaliningrad Oblast.

Russian power projection in the Med just took a big hit but it remains to be seen what that means for Bashar Assad.

 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-3-2024

[Tiberius]

On 11/29/2024 at 11:46 AM, B-Man said:

 

 

 

Send a fruit basket to Biden, too!

[All_Pro_Bills]

On 11/30/2024 at 2:55 PM, Coffeesforclosers said:

Alright.

 

In a nutshell, and if various OSINTs and other news sources are correct:

 

1. Aleppo, Homs and Homma have fallen or are falling. Those are all top-5 urban centers in Syria.

 

2. Assad and his family and allies have skedaddled to Moscow, Europe and the UAE. 

 

3. There is currently a coup in progress, being led by Assad army diehards to seize what's left of the government and form some kind of defense of the Alawite heartland.

 

4. Assad Army loyalists burned at least one government Arsenal to keep it out of HTS hands.

 

5. Iranian and Russian forces are evacuating their positions, regardless of their proximity to HTS and the various rebel factions. They are not offering any meaningful resistance to the rebels so far either.

 

6. All Anti-Assad forces, whether they're rebels, moderates, Islamists, Kurds, US-backed, or Turkey-backed, have gone over to the offensive, Tet-style.

 

7. There has been no movement of Russian or Iranian forces into Syria to try and save the Assad regime +yet+.

 

Middle East alliances are a puzzle wrapped in a riddle.

 

Basically, ISIS terrorist related groups,  re-branded with fancy new names and claims of being "moderate", with the backing of Turkey are mounting an offensive against Syrian government forces supported by Russia and Iran These are the same groups the US is claiming to be fighting as pretense to occupy northeastern areas of Syria. And Turkey a NATO member, is sheltering and supporting a terrorist group the US is seeking to eliminate. Let's not dismiss the likelihood that Israel with US backing, through Mossad or their military, are working in cooperation with Turkey in this Shiite vs. Sunni never ending battle.

Edited December 5 by All_Pro_Bills

[Coffeesforclosers]

Quick update.  HTS just took Hama.  Hama was supposed to be a well-fortified, Assad regime stronghold, and is one of Syria's four big cities (along with Damascus, Homs, and Aleppo).  HTS now controls Aleppo and Hama. 

 

HTS is overrunning Syrian Arab Army bases (the Assad loyalists), which have been taken with their armories largely intact.  Lots of videos of HTS jihadists dancing on pictures of Putin and Assad in front of rooms filled with AK family assault rifles, boxes of ammo, and racks of MANPADS. HTS also overran a tank training school, so they've got at least 1 T-90 knocking around.  There's also video of HTS in possession of Buk family SAM vehicles, Uragan MLRS systems and god knows what else.

 

Apparently, Assad had demobilized a lot of his army four years ago, on account of he thought the war was won, and that Iran and Russia would to the heavy lifting if anything happened.

 

Russian milbloggers are back to gnashing their teeth, as Russian advisors had been trying to "professionalize" the Syrian army for years. Instead Assad demobilized what he didn't like then packed the remaining forces with crooks and bootlickers.  This of course is all familiar sounding to us.

 

Below is a video from Syria posted by HTS.  SAA are fleeing Hama, and they get chased down, machine gunned and run over by HTS armored vehicles.

 

 

[Irv]

Dopey Biden and Obammy botch another.  Thankfully Fred can get his third term abortion and men can play women's sports.  WTF?

[Coffeesforclosers]

9 hours ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Middle East alliances are a puzzle wrapped in a riddle.

 

Basically, ISIS terrorist related groups,  re-branded with fancy new names and claims of being "moderate", with the backing of Turkey are mounting an offensive against Syrian government forces supported by Russia and Iran These are the same groups the US is claiming to be fighting as pretense to occupy northeastern areas of Syria. And Turkey a NATO member, is sheltering and supporting a terrorist group the US is seeking to eliminate. Let's not dismiss the likelihood that Israel with US backing, through Mossad or their military, are working in cooperation with Turkey in this Shiite vs. Sunni never ending battle.

 

I thought you'd be overjoyed?

 

Russia has flooded the middle east with weapons as an extension of the Soviet Union's dreams of empire.

 

Now their Alawite puppets and Iranian stooges are on the ropes.

 

This is simply the blowback from their failed nation building and endless warmongering.  Honestly, the only winners in the Syrian CW are Russia's MIC and the forever war they've been stoking since 2011.  Well that, and Putin's Empire would never stomach the shame of losing their colonies in Tartus and Latakia.

 

 

Edited December 6 by Coffeesforclosers

[Coffeesforclosers]

Quick update.

 

Most if not all border crossings are in rebel hands. 

 

HTS is currently in Damascus, pulling down statues of various Assad regime figures.

 

Turkey, Iran and Russia are meeting in the gulf to "establish a dialogue" between HTS and what's left of Assad? So Turkey can tell Iran and Russia what's going to happen?

 

The SAA is defecting or surrendering to the rebels in droves.

 

Israel and the USAF are blowing up Assad allies and supply depots from time to time.

 

What's left of ISIS is trying to grab towns and villages around wherever they've been holed up.

 

The Free Syrian Army, the US backed rebels, took a city called Palmyra.

[BillsFanNC]

 

[Wacka]

Let them fight it out in house and have each side kill all the other's troops. Notice how Syria has not been  sticking their nose in the Gaza Hezbollah stuff. They have their own problems.

Edited December 7 by Wacka

[The Frankish Reich]

I don't know what to think about this.

Bad news: an Islamic rebel force threatens to take over a country.

Good news: Iran's control over Syria is slipping, fast.

Probably good news: Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine and can't do as much damage as it would like to do in other parts of the world.

Probably Bad news: stability under a dictator beholden to Iran may be preferable to chaos in the region.

[Coffeesforclosers]

In today's wild-assed news from Syria:

 

HTS is liberating prisoners from Assad's gulag-style prison system. Apparently, one group of prisoners has been in the hole for so long, they:

 

1. Didn't know that Hafez Assad, Bashar Assad's father who died 24 years ago, was dead.

2. Believed they were being liberated by an Iraqi invasion led by Saddam Hussein.

 

Assad regime Secret Police have been seen in Homs, burning tons of documents on the roof of their headquarters then bugging out.

 

Paywall Article: Assad is trying to deal, stating that he'll sever all ties with Iran and Hezbollah if We, the US, help save his neck. I say *****'em.

 

Russian heavy lift aircraft (3 IL-76s and 1 AN-124) were spotted landing in Khmeimim Air Base, where the Russian Air Force hangs its hat.  IL-76s can carry 170-250 troops, and AN-124 can hold up to 350.  Nobody knows what's on them yet or why they're there.  They could be empty to fly Russian personnel and critical gear our.  They could be a reinforced battalion of VDV to secure an airhead for some kind of intervention or cover an evacuation.  Time will tell.

 

Generally I hate Xitter, but this is the statement itself.  This statement has the value of a child's snotrag unless somebody is about to tell HTS what to do in a way they can't ignore.

 

Edited December 7 by Coffeesforclosers

[GaryPinC]

1 hour ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

In today's wild-assed news from Syria:

 

HTS is liberating prisoners from Assad's gulag-style prison system. Apparently, one group of prisoners has been in the hole for so long, they:

 

1. Didn't know that Hafez Assad, Bashar Assad's father who died 24 years ago, was dead.

2. Believed they were being liberated by an Iraqi invasion led by Saddam Hussein.

 

Assad regime Secret Police have been seen in Homs, burning tons of documents on the roof of their headquarters then bugging out.

 

Paywall Article: Assad is trying to deal, stating that he'll sever all ties with Iran and Hezbollah if We, the US, help save his neck. I say *****'em.

 

Russian heavy lift aircraft (3 IL-76s and 1 AN-124) were spotted landing in Khmeimim Air Base, where the Russian Air Force hangs its hat.  IL-76s can carry 170-250 troops, and AN-124 can hold up to 350.  Nobody knows what's on them yet or why they're there.  They could be empty to fly Russian personnel and critical gear our.  They could be a reinforced battalion of VDV to secure an airhead for some kind of intervention or cover an evacuation.  Time will tell.

 

Generally I hate Xitter, but this is the statement itself.  This statement has the value of a child's snotrag unless somebody is about to tell HTS what to do in a way they can't ignore.

 

Amazing how this is all seems a bit understated given all the other conflicts in the world, and no one has the political will to intervene.   A lot of disparate Syrian factions working together for this.  Sure seems like Assad will be out very soon.  Let's hope there's a sincerity to balance all these groups after Assad is out or it'll truly get ugly.

[Coffeesforclosers]

22 minutes ago, GaryPinC said:

Amazing how this is all seems a bit understated given all the other conflicts in the world, and no one has the political will to intervene.   A lot of disparate Syrian factions working together for this.  Sure seems like Assad will be out very soon.  Let's hope there's a sincerity to balance all these groups after Assad is out or it'll truly get ugly.

 

We'll see.  I'm A-Ok with our participation being limited to vaporizing ISIS fighters and Assad allies. 

 

I'm also A-Ok with HTS severing the landward supply lines between Iran and its proxies.  If they kick Russia out of Latakia and Tartus, so much the better.

 

In the end, it's up to Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia to police the Middle East.

[Tiberius]

3 minutes ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

 

I'm also A-Ok with HTS severing the landward supply lines between Iran and its proxies. 
 

If they kick Russia out of Latakia and Tartus, so much the better.

 

 

Good point on the land lines. Maybe Israel played some sort of role in helping initiate this. And Anything that reduces Russia’s reach is a good thing, especially if it hinders their submarine operations 

[Biden is Mentally Fit]

Who could have guessed?