Thanksgiving Day football, no Bills talk

[Scott7975]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

Yeah that 1-16 stat is incorrect.  The real number is 3-14 - though the point still largely is the same.  
 

The three wins are Baltimore and Buffalo which took some pretty crazy circumstances to get the W and Dallas last season.  
 

 

 

 

If you watch Miami in pre-game footage the players look like they are freezing.  I remember this last year in Kansas City and then again tonight.  I don’t think the cold is the only reason they lost but this group of players seems to be bothered by it to some effect 

 

One of those wins was the heat stroke game where Diggs and others kept running to the locker room for IVs

1 hour ago, Big Blitz said:

 

I think I saw on Finheaven Tua is 7-17 vs teams with winning records in his career.  

And 1-11 the last 2 seasons. 

 

Those include games that he started and was bailed out by Fitz when the coach benched him.

[GunnerBill]

Black Friday morning reflections on the late game:

 

- I know Philadelphia are getting a lot of love but I think Green Bay might be the second best team in the conference. They battled through the first half of the season with a nicked up Quarterback but they are going to be a problem in the post season. My only reservation is I don't think they match up great vs the Lions should they meet their division rival in January;

- I am an unabashed Jordan Love fan. He is just such an aggressive decision maker and downfield thrower. He makes the odd mistake because he reads everything long to short but while he is the Pack QB they are never going to walk off a field not knowing. In an NFC lacking QB stars, Jordan Love is a QB star;

- As for Miami's offense, look I know Achane is a hell of a talented running back but they are at risk of over using him. I felt it at times vs Buffalo and I definitely felt it in that first half last night. Every time you throw to Achane rather than downfield to Waddle or Hill it is kind of a win for the defense. They did get Hill going a bit in the 2nd half but the game was already away from them. When you have two game breaking receivers with elite speed why allow yourself to turn into a dink and dunk running back and tight end offense? It makes no sense;

- This game was an advert for DVOA. The last few weeks I have lost count of the number of talking heads lining up to tell us how "Miami's defense has come around." Aaron Schatz of DVOA fame was on Schopp and Bulldog last week and they asked him directly what the numbers said and he said "no, not really they have just played some bad offenses" and would you believe it against a good offense they immediately give up 30, and the Packers were in cruise control 2nd half and could have scored more; 

- Where does it leave Miami? I think in a "must win out" situation in terms of making the playoffs but even if they don't 9-8 might be enough to make sure everyone stays in a job (most particularly GM Chris Grier). They only face one more team with a winning record - Houston in two weeks - and they themselves are wobbling. The path is narrow but a path remains.

[dollars 2 donuts]

 

[Mikie2times]

I have no idea where to put this but it’s pretty damn funny. Non QB Brady is actually likable 🙃 

 

https://www.facebook.com/NFLonCBS/videos/1888511011630542/?fs=e&mibextid=0NULKw&fs=e&s=TIeQ9V

Edited November 29 by Mikie2times

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Black Friday morning reflections on the late game:

 

- I know Philadelphia are getting a lot of love but I think Green Bay might be the second best team in the conference. They battled through the first half of the season with a nicked up Quarterback but they are going to be a problem in the post season. My only reservation is I don't think they match up great vs the Lions should they meet their division rival in January;

- I am an unabashed Jordan Love fan. He is just such an aggressive decision maker and downfield thrower. He makes the odd mistake because he reads everything long to short but while he is the Pack QB they are never going to walk off a field not knowing. In an NFC lacking QB stars, Jordan Love is a QB star;

- As for Miami's offense, look I know Achane is a hell of a talented running back but they are at risk of over using him. I felt it at times vs Buffalo and I definitely felt it in that first half last night. Every time you throw to Achane rather than downfield to Waddle or Hill it is kind of a win for the defense. They did get Hill going a bit in the 2nd half but the game was already away from them. When you have two game breaking receivers with elite speed why allow yourself to turn into a dink and dunk running back and tight end offense? It makes no sense;

- This game was an advert for DVOA. The last few weeks I have lost count of the number of talking heads lining up to tell us how "Miami's defense has come around." Aaron Schatz of DVOA fame was on Schopp and Bulldog last week and they asked him directly what the numbers said and he said "no, not really they have just played some bad offenses" and would you believe it against a good offense they immediately give up 30, and the Packers were in cruise control 2nd half and could have scored more; 

- Where does it leave Miami? I think in a "must win out" situation in terms of making the playoffs but even if they don't 9-8 might be enough to make sure everyone stays in a job (most particularly GM Chris Grier). They only face one more team with a winning record - Houston in two weeks - and they themselves are wobbling. The path is narrow but a path remains.

Between players like Kraft, Wicks, Doubs, Reed and Watson Green Bay has an assortment of solid weapons.  Also I think Josh Jacobs is still really good.   Love is the wildcard.  If he plays like he did against Miami they will be a tough out for anyone.

 

I think you are right about Miami’s

offense.  Everyone is raving about the passes to Achane and Jonnu Smith but I think teams would gladly give them receptions if it means the balls not going to Hill and Waddle.  
 

It also makes me wonder what’s going on with Hill.  Is he starting to show some decline?  Or is he just not getting ball in Miami’s newest version of offense?

[jcamm1966]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Black Friday morning reflections on the late game:

 

- I know Philadelphia are getting a lot of love but I think Green Bay might be the second best team in the conference. They battled through the first half of the season with a nicked up Quarterback but they are going to be a problem in the post season. My only reservation is I don't think they match up great vs the Lions should they meet their division rival in January;

- I am an unabashed Jordan Love fan. He is just such an aggressive decision maker and downfield thrower. He makes the odd mistake because he reads everything long to short but while he is the Pack QB they are never going to walk off a field not knowing. In an NFC lacking QB stars, Jordan Love is a QB star;

- As for Miami's offense, look I know Achane is a hell of a talented running back but they are at risk of over using him. I felt it at times vs Buffalo and I definitely felt it in that first half last night. Every time you throw to Achane rather than downfield to Waddle or Hill it is kind of a win for the defense. They did get Hill going a bit in the 2nd half but the game was already away from them. When you have two game breaking receivers with elite speed why allow yourself to turn into a dink and dunk running back and tight end offense? It makes no sense;

- This game was an advert for DVOA. The last few weeks I have lost count of the number of talking heads lining up to tell us how "Miami's defense has come around." Aaron Schatz of DVOA fame was on Schopp and Bulldog last week and they asked him directly what the numbers said and he said "no, not really they have just played some bad offenses" and would you believe it against a good offense they immediately give up 30, and the Packers were in cruise control 2nd half and could have scored more; 

- Where does it leave Miami? I think in a "must win out" situation in terms of making the playoffs but even if they don't 9-8 might be enough to make sure everyone stays in a job (most particularly GM Chris Grier). They only face one more team with a winning record - Houston in two weeks - and they themselves are wobbling. The path is narrow but a path remains.

Dec 29 at Cleveland night game odds are under 40 degrees

6 hours ago, Malazan said:

They are 1-16 against teams with a winning record or made the playoffs that year in the McDaniel era.

 

The 1 win was the Bills in 2022.

Dorsey game when is was 98 degrees

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, jcamm1966 said:

Dec 29 at Cleveland night game odds are under 40 degrees

 

 

Yea that game is not a gimme. Like I say the path for Miami still exists, but it is narrow. 

[jcamm1966]

7 hours ago, Billznut said:

Lol exactly. I wonder how many forum members are still going to be nervous of the Dolphins snagging that 7 seed this year? There were more than a few up to today. 

Not winning at Browns night game ay Cleveland stefanski coaching for his life it will be 21 degrees and snow, plus Jamis last game

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea that game is not a gimme. Like I say the path for Miami still exists, but it is narrow. 

Stafanski coaching for his job also

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

Between players like Kraft, Wicks, Doubs, Reed and Watson Green Bay has an assortment of solid weapons.  Also I think Josh Jacobs is still really good.   Love is the wildcard.  If he plays like he did against Miami they will be a tough out for anyone.

 

I think you are right about Miami’s

offense.  Everyone is raving about the passes to Achane and Jonnu Smith but I think teams would gladly give them receptions if it means the balls not going to Hill and Waddle.  
 

It also makes me wonder what’s going on with Hill.  Is he starting to show some decline?  Or is he just not getting ball in Miami’s newest version of offense?

With Hill your not the fastest forever

[Big Turk]

Dolphins at least made history last night...

 

They set a new NFL record for missed tackles in a single game with 20, smashing the old record of 16 held by the Titans.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

 

I think you are right about Miami’s offense.  Everyone is raving about the passes to Achane and Jonnu Smith but I think teams would gladly give them receptions if it means the balls not going to Hill and Waddle.  
 

It also makes me wonder what’s going on with Hill.  Is he starting to show some decline?  Or is he just not getting ball in Miami’s newest version of offense?

 

So I think there are a few things going on with Hill:

 

1. Tua earlier in his career especially was very susceptible to pressure so teams would blitz him a ton and try and man up on the backend but increasingly now teams are playing more cover 2 shell against Miami - as they do to the Buffalos and Kansas Citys of the world and trying to take the deeper balls away. 

2. I do think there are signs that Hill has slowed a little but he is still dynamic enough and Waddle definitely hasn't slowed do the failure to get him involved too suggests it is more than just a decline in Hill's speed that is the issue. 

3. The rule change that took away the cheat motion has affected Miami more than any other team. Covering Hill and Waddle with a running start was all but impossible.

4. I think they are just getting a bit overly cute in their offensive design. Everything seems to have a fake or a twist, or a bit of eye candy and I think teams are almost where they got to with the Jared Goff Rams which was "ignore everything just play your assignment as though it was a straight dropback and for the 3 or 4 times a game when they do something creative off one of their motions or fakes we will live with it, they can't do that down to down."

 

To me McDaniel has gotta get back in the lab and look at the route combination concepts they are running wit their two best players. Because having Hill and Waddle then allowing your offense to be dink and dunk with Achane and Smith is like having a Ferrari in the garage but only ever driving your Skoda. 

[st pete gogolak]

37 minutes ago, jcamm1966 said:

Not winning at Browns night game ay Cleveland stefanski coaching for his life it will be 21 degrees and snow, plus Jamis last game

Stafanski coaching for his job also

With Hill your not the fastest forever

Browns will be “desperate!”

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

So I think there are a few things going on with Hill:

 

1. Tua earlier in his career especially was very susceptible to pressure so teams would blitz him a ton and try and man up on the backend but increasingly now teams are playing more cover 2 shell against Miami - as they do to the Buffalos and Kansas Citys of the world and trying to take the deeper balls away. 

2. I do think there are signs that Hill has slowed a little but he is still dynamic enough and Waddle definitely hasn't slowed do the failure to get him involved too suggests it is more than just a decline in Hill's speed that is the issue. 

3. The rule change that took away the cheat motion has affected Miami more than any other team. Covering Hill and Waddle with a running start was all but impossible.

4. I think they are just getting a bit overly cute in their offensive design. Everything seems to have a fake or a twist, or a bit of eye candy and I think teams are almost where they got to with the Jared Goff Rams which was "ignore everything just play your assignment as though it was a straight dropback and for the 3 or 4 times a game when they do something creative off one of their motions or fakes we will live with it, they can't do that down to down."

 

To me McDaniel has gotta get back in the lab and look at the route combination concepts they are running wit their two best players. Because having Hill and Waddle then allowing your offense to be dink and dunk with Achane and Smith is like having a Ferrari in the garage but only ever driving your Skoda. 

100% on the too cute part.

 

They had a 4th and short, I think where they lined up Achane RIGHT behind the A gap and Tua in the gun and I thought, what is this formation trying to accomplish. 
 

They converted because Tua had some time but it was just a bit too much for no reason.

 

Hill also will not be a Dolphin much longer. I think he’s slowed but I think McDaniel has intentionally gone more TE/RB heavy. I think that’s done intentionally to simulate a run game and dink and dunk and create a more “sustainable” offense. You don’t need to pay both Waddle and Hill to decoy for that. 

[Ya Digg?]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

100% on the too cute part.

 

They had a 4th and short, I think where they lined up Achane RIGHT behind the A gap and Tua in the gun and I thought, what is this formation trying to accomplish. 
 

They converted because Tua had some time but it was just a bit too much for no reason.

 

Hill also will not be a Dolphin much longer. I think he’s slowed but I think McDaniel has intentionally gone more TE/RB heavy. I think that’s done intentionally to simulate a run game and dink and dunk and create a more “sustainable” offense. You don’t need to pay both Waddle and Hill to decoy for that. 

Didn’t they recently re-work Hill’s contract? I believe he is a pretty big dead cap hit if they trade or release him. I also think the “Hill has slowed down” talk is a bit overblown. He might not be the fastest guy in the league any more, but I’d be willing to be he is still top 5

[Turf Toejam 34]

Hill is also playing through an injury to his hand that will require surgery in the off season.   It remains to be seen if they lose one more that he shuts it down for the season.   

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Didn’t they recently re-work Hill’s contract? I believe he is a pretty big dead cap hit if they trade or release him. I also think the “Hill has slowed down” talk is a bit overblown. He might not be the fastest guy in the league any more, but I’d be willing to be he is still top 5

They can trade him and save $31M next year. If they cut him, they save $3M and have a $27M dead hit.

 

It sounds like a lot but he effectively has no guarantees in 2026 if he’s off the team. The rest of his contract kicks in 3rd day of the league year in 26. 
 

they did do a little rework, but I think he will be gone. He’s definitely gone in 26 but they can rip the bandaid off sooner. 

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

6 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Try this

 

 

 

Its Florida. My parents think its cold now when they walk outside and its in the 60s. They lived here in Buffalo for the first 30 years of my life.

He'll be back next year. 😁

[chongli]

 

 

Edited November 29 by chongli

[Livinginthepast]

GB looked a lot tougher than Detroit yesterday. But I think either would be a formidable SB opponent if we get there. The Dolphins looked like they didnt want to be there. So soft in the cold weather games. McDaniel constantly looks like a guy awakened in the middle of the night by a rattlesnake in his sleeping bag and isnt sure how to react as he takes it all in.

[st pete gogolak]

It’s too bad that there is not a “fair” way to incorporate sacks into QB rating. The sacks Tua took and the passes he missed in the first half were killers.

[strive_for_five_guy]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Dolphins at least made history last night...

 

They set a new NFL record for missed tackles in a single game with 20, smashing the old record of 16 held by the Titans.

Poyer and Dodson did their part to help break that record 😃