Great Article on QB Zone vs Man

[Mikie2times]

Came across this and noticed it had a lot of Allen/Bills content. Really great article breaking down QB performance vs coverage type. 

 

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-vs-man-and-zone-coverage

 

Calls out how teams play a lot of man vs us because we shred zone. Also that we have a very high rate of open WR’s vs zone. Also touched on the concept that the better man QB’s might be that way more a a result of better WR’s. Which makes a ton of sense and why that number one or high end WR is still a big deal. FYI the Lions play the most man in the NFL.

Edited November 28 by Mikie2times

[bigduke6]

nice.  either way,  we shred zone,  or they play man,  which of course necessitates a spy on JA17,  which takes a player out of coverage.  seems good to me.

[GunnerBill]

It's a good piece, and the overall conclusion that the trick to being great against man might just be having true high end man beating receivers is right in my view. However, on the opposite end you have to have really talented DBs to be successful playing a lot of man coverage. The Jags for instance tried to play man vs Buffalo in week 3 when the Bills were very much still bedding in Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper was still running downfield while Deshaun Watson got sacked.... they were shredded. Why? Because Tyson Campbell was out and the rest of their DBs just aren't good enough to play man coverage even against a mediocre set of Bills receivers. Similarly over the years the Dolphins have tried to play a ton of man against the Bills, and Josh has been excellent against them. Even since they have had Jalen Ramsey, Allen has just looked at the defense, worked out man or zone and if it's man don't throw at Ramsey, throw somewhere else and the others won't be able to carry their assignments. 

 

The Chiefs, missing their #1 outside corner Jaylen Watson, took a different tack in week 11 and as a team that normally tries to play the Bills in a lot of man coverage they switched to primarily playing zone. That was likely in part to protect Nazeeh Johnson who was starting opposite Trent McDuffie outside and Chamarri Conner who has replaced McDuffie in the slot since Watson's injury. It didn't work. The Bills targeted Johnson 12 times and had 9 completions for 103 yards and Conner 6 times for 5 completions and 55 yards. But if you are Steve Spagnuolo you probably say to yourself "if they got cooked that bad in zone maybe it was a good thing I didn't play more man."

 

So while there is definitely a question for the Bills as we look toward the post season in respect of "can their receivers win consistently enough vs man coverage?" (and I think that especially applies outside the numbers) there is a question for the teams we are going to face as well as to whether they trust their DBs enough to play us in man, and if they do, does it work? 

[The BLUES Brothers]

Josh is in a Zone when he plays vs Man, and Man can he ball out against Zone 

[JP51]

3 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Came across this and noticed it had a lot of Allen/Bills content. Really great article breaking down QB performance vs coverage type. 

 

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-vs-man-and-zone-coverage

 

Calls out how teams play a lot of man vs us because we shred zone. Also that we have a very high rate of open WR’s vs zone. Also touched on the concept that the better man QB’s might be that way more a a result of better WR’s. Which makes a ton of sense and why that number one or high end WR is still a big deal. FYI the Lions play the most man in the NFL.

I agree a dominant one and solid 2 would be huge not many long balls this year and the ones we have had are 50/50 balls and TE that get lost in coverage. Man does have an advantage and that is Josh can rip off big runs 

[gonzo1105]

I've noticed that some teams have been mixing in Cover 2 looks against the Bills a bit. Someone was going back in the film archives to find a way to stop the Bills because Allen did struggle against Cover 2 looks for a time but he has had not problem picking it apart the bit he has seen it this year.

[Mikie2times]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It's a good piece, and the overall conclusion that the trick to being great against man might just be having true high end man beating receivers is right in my view. However, on the opposite end you have to have really talented DBs to be successful playing a lot of man coverage. The Jags for instance tried to play man vs Buffalo in week 3 when the Bills were very much still bedding in Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper was still running downfield while Deshaun Watson got sacked.... they were shredded. Why? Because Tyson Campbell was out and the rest of their DBs just aren't good enough to play man coverage even against a mediocre set of Bills receivers. Similarly over the years the Dolphins have tried to play a ton of man against the Bills, and Josh has been excellent against them. Even since they have had Jalen Ramsey, Allen has just looked at the defense, worked out man or zone and if it's man don't throw at Ramsey, throw somewhere else and the others won't be able to carry their assignments. 

 

The Chiefs, missing their #1 outside corner Jaylen Watson, took a different tack in week 11 and as a team that normally tries to play the Bills in a lot of man coverage they switched to primarily playing zone. That was likely in part to protect Nazeeh Johnson who was starting opposite Trent McDuffie outside and Chamarri Conner who has replaced McDuffie in the slot since Watson's injury. It didn't work. The Bills targeted Johnson 12 times and had 9 completions for 103 yards and Conner 6 times for 5 completions and 55 yards. But if you are Steve Spagnuolo you probably say to yourself "if they got cooked that bad in zone maybe it was a good thing I didn't play more man."

 

So while there is definitely a question for the Bills as we look toward the post season in respect of "can their receivers win consistently enough vs man coverage?" (and I think that especially applies outside the numbers) there is a question for the teams we are going to face as well as to whether they trust their DBs enough to play us in man, and if they do, does it work? 

This is an phenomenal take. I immediately thought of the Jags as well as I keep up with these rates for defenses and know they're a heavy man team as well. As you point out the flipside of the successful QB needing better WR's is the defense needing better corners. Man just boils down to winning match ups and you need the talent. I'm a bit jealous of what Jameson Williams brings to the Lions. The article calls out he has the highest wide open rate vs man in the NFL at 17.6% this year. But just a fan of his game. Just a man killer with his speed. I like how our WR has advanced and certainly more upside but still long for that homerun hitter that can take the top off.   

[HappyDays]

19 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I've noticed that some teams have been mixing in Cover 2 looks against the Bills a bit. Someone was going back in the film archives to find a way to stop the Bills because Allen did struggle against Cover 2 looks for a time but he has had not problem picking it apart the bit he has seen it this year.

 

I think at this point Allen can diagnose and find the weakness against any defense. It happens to all great QBs at a certain point. Leading the first 30+ point game scored against KC in something like 25 games is a testament to this. Spags threw everything he could at Allen and none of it really confused him. Also the fact that he hasn't thrown a single WTF interception this year, as in all of his interceptions have been reasonable decisions based on the coverage shown. And I'm sure that's why defenses are showing us more man than any other team. They figure they have better odds of stopping our pass catchers from getting open, than they do of stopping Allen from diagnosing the right throwing window.

[Sierra Foothills]

10 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Came across this and noticed it had a lot of Allen/Bills content. Really great article breaking down QB performance vs coverage type. 

 

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-vs-man-and-zone-coverage

 

Calls out how teams play a lot of man vs us because we shred zone. Also that we have a very high rate of open WR’s vs zone. Also touched on the concept that the better man QB’s might be that way more a a result of better WR’s. Which makes a ton of sense and why that number one or high end WR is still a big deal. FYI the Lions play the most man in the NFL.

 

Excellent breakdown and thanks very much for posting.

 

Yes, hopefully next year brings us the final piece for our WR corps.

 

I'd love to be able to retain Cooper too.

 

[Big Turk]

11 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Came across this and noticed it had a lot of Allen/Bills content. Really great article breaking down QB performance vs coverage type. 

 

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-vs-man-and-zone-coverage

 

Calls out how teams play a lot of man vs us because we shred zone. Also that we have a very high rate of open WR’s vs zone. Also touched on the concept that the better man QB’s might be that way more a a result of better WR’s. Which makes a ton of sense and why that number one or high end WR is still a big deal. FYI the Lions play the most man in the NFL.

 

Good luck containing Allen then....he will be running all over them.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Good luck containing Allen then....he will be running all over them.

 

 

Yeah.

 

But for those who would rather see Allen running a bit less, this might see him doing it more. Hopefuly he slides more. He's been pretty good overall at doing that

 

Interesting article, OP.

[Saint Doug]

15 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Came across this and noticed it had a lot of Allen/Bills content. Really great article breaking down QB performance vs coverage type. 

 

https://ftnfantasy.com/nfl/qbs-vs-man-and-zone-coverage

 

Calls out how teams play a lot of man vs us because we shred zone. Also that we have a very high rate of open WR’s vs zone. Also touched on the concept that the better man QB’s might be that way more a a result of better WR’s. Which makes a ton of sense and why that number one or high end WR is still a big deal. FYI the Lions play the most man in the NFL.

I can’t believe I just read this entire article and basically nothing on Mahomes. Remarkable. And I also saw more of the Allen isn’t accurate crap. 

[BigDingus]

 

7 hours ago, Saint Doug said:

I can’t believe I just read this entire article and basically nothing on Mahomes. Remarkable. And I also saw more of the Allen isn’t accurate crap. 

 

It didn't say he wasn't accurate, he's just not as accurate as some other players, and he's not known for tight timing/getting the ball out quick or throwing guys open.

 

That's all true, and it's one of the reasons why Bills receivers never ranked highly in YAC in years past.

 

That's changed now, but mostly because of all the WR screens. It's not an insult or anything, Josh is just never going to be like Brady with the quick timing routes or have Purdy's efficiency.

[machine gun kelly]

18 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think at this point Allen can diagnose and find the weakness against any defense. It happens to all great QBs at a certain point. Leading the first 30+ point game scored against KC in something like 25 games is a testament to this. Spags threw everything he could at Allen and none of it really confused him. Also the fact that he hasn't thrown a single WTF interception this year, as in all of his interceptions have been reasonable decisions based on the coverage shown. And I'm sure that's why defenses are showing us more man than any other team. They figure they have better odds of stopping our pass catchers from getting open, than they do of stopping Allen from diagnosing the right throwing window.

Happy, I was going to write the same as let’s face it, our WR’s were less than stellar towards the beginning of the year.  Coleman evolving, the Cooper trdewehavent seen flourish yet, and so on makes it easy for people to not trust our WR’s ability to get open.  With that said, Allen and Brady still found a way.

[stuvian]

reading is hard 

[julian]

Most of these QBs “throwing WRs open” are doing so because they don’t have the release, arm strength and mobility to wait on route runners to come free.

 

 I definitely prefer Allen’s skill set over the Purdy’s and Tua’s of the league, both can be successful but Allen is much more difficult to defend.

[Beck Water]

On 11/28/2024 at 4:08 AM, GunnerBill said:

It's a good piece, and the overall conclusion that the trick to being great against man might just be having true high end man beating receivers is right in my view. However, on the opposite end you have to have really talented DBs to be successful playing a lot of man coverage. The Jags for instance tried to play man vs Buffalo in week 3 when the Bills were very much still bedding in Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper was still running downfield while Deshaun Watson got sacked.... they were shredded. Why? Because Tyson Campbell was out and the rest of their DBs just aren't good enough to play man coverage even against a mediocre set of Bills receivers. Similarly over the years the Dolphins have tried to play a ton of man against the Bills, and Josh has been excellent against them. Even since they have had Jalen Ramsey, Allen has just looked at the defense, worked out man or zone and if it's man don't throw at Ramsey, throw somewhere else and the others won't be able to carry their assignments. 

 

The Chiefs, missing their #1 outside corner Jaylen Watson, took a different tack in week 11 and as a team that normally tries to play the Bills in a lot of man coverage they switched to primarily playing zone. That was likely in part to protect Nazeeh Johnson who was starting opposite Trent McDuffie outside and Chamarri Conner who has replaced McDuffie in the slot since Watson's injury. It didn't work. The Bills targeted Johnson 12 times and had 9 completions for 103 yards and Conner 6 times for 5 completions and 55 yards. But if you are Steve Spagnuolo you probably say to yourself "if they got cooked that bad in zone maybe it was a good thing I didn't play more man."

 

So while there is definitely a question for the Bills as we look toward the post season in respect of "can their receivers win consistently enough vs man coverage?" (and I think that especially applies outside the numbers) there is a question for the teams we are going to face as well as to whether they trust their DBs enough to play us in man, and if they do, does it work? 

 

All true but there are also scheme factors to beating man coverage such as designing rub routes and picks clever enough to pass un-called, and setting up so that in the coverage rules being used, they can exploit the weak link in coverage.

[Buffalo716]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

All true but there are also scheme factors to beating man coverage such as designing rub routes and picks clever enough to pass un-called, and setting up so that in the coverage rules being used, they can exploit the weak link in coverage.

Yes but you'll also run into match defenses for man and zone 

 

Man match and zone match

 

And both run on alot of principles 

 

Like MOD coverage on the outside.. man only deep or man on demand

 

Anything under 6-7 yards underneath can be passed off and turned into zone 

 

If the receivers run deeper routes downfield it's man

 

As opposed to man everywhere 

Edited December 1 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

All true but there are also scheme factors to beating man coverage such as designing rub routes and picks clever enough to pass un-called, and setting up so that in the coverage rules being used, they can exploit the weak link in coverage.

 

Yes there are. But you can't call those 35 times a game and ultimately when playing a heavy man team the tariff on your outside guys winning 1 on 1 5 or 6 times in the game is higher and that tends to be why the better offenses v man tend line up with better receiver talent.